NFL Plays - Week 12 & the Hollywood Prevue

I do apologize for the lack of horse racing picks lately. Times have been crazy, but I really do hope to get some full card (or at least comprehensive weekend stakes) plays out there before long. I will offer one play for Sunday, as well as a few picks for NFL games....

Hollywood Prevue Stakes (Gr. III)

All things considered, this race has made a considerable niche for itself in the Southern California juvenile schedule. Since 2000, victors of this 7f event have included multiple Grade 1 victor Lion Heart, champion Declan's Moon, Your Tent or Mine, and the talented, yet mismanaged, Massive Drama. The 2008 cast of contenders features a solid mix of known and unknown commodities. Azul Leon heads the list of the known. The deep closing son of Lion Heart will be looking to join his pops as a winner of this race, and he's got the talent to do so. The Doug O'Neill charge has won 2 of 3 his starts short of 8f, and just missed by a nose in the Best Pal Stakes (Gr. II). He's 2 for 2 at Hollywood Park, but this race won't be a cakewalk for him. I don't blame bettors if they look elsewhere. For me, elsewhere does not include 2/1 second choice Backbackbackgone. A name reminiscent of numerous Chris Berman highlights and Home Run Derby calls, I think the streak has to end here for him. He's 3 for 3 in his career, but the competition keeps getting closer at the wire. This is his longest race yet, and if that trend holds, they'll get by this time. One thing working in his favor is the lack of early speed in this race. Mark Casse trainee Congor Bay will stalk closely, but the others may be content to just allow those two to go along at a comfortable clip. Arashi Cat, by Fusaichi Pegasus, will surely appreciate the added distance and will be flying late - he's 5/1 on the morning line...give him a long look. I'm trying to make a case for Baffert's Ventana, a flashy maiden winner at Belmont who flopped in the Champagne Stakes (Gr. I) and did little to impress when 4th in the Goodman Stakes at Santa Anita. At 4/1, he's got the makings of an expensive colt who will be overbet due to his trainer and will need to improve significantly to matter here.

1. Azul Leon
2. Arashi Cat
3. Backbackbackgone



NFL Plays

Indianapolis (+2.5) at San Diego

I feel pretty good about this one. I figured Indy would be GIVING points against the Chargers, and I was very pleased to see that wasn't the case. San Diego's defense has struggled all season, but more importantly the Colts offense has hit its best stride, winning 3 straight. Have to be a bit concerned about the number of close games both teams have been playing this year, with the teams combined having 12 games separated by a touchdown or less. This is one of those games where I trust Peyton Manning, and assume that he will get it done in the final minutes. He comes through much more often than not.

Quite a few other plays look pretty enticing -

Washington (- 3 1/2) should have no problems covering on the road against the hapless Seahawks. The 'Hawks are 1-4 at home this season, and even if they get Hasselbeck back, he'll be rusty and in for a long day against the tough 'Skins D. Also give solid consideration to Carolina (+1) at Atlanta, and Tennessee (-5) at home against the Jets. I haven't been able to figure out how the Titans are 10-0, but they keep getting the job done. I'd air on the side of caution with this game, though - the Jets are very confident off a win at rival New England and they bring a 4 game winning streak into Tennessee.


Until next time, good luck betting!