The United States Postal Service handles billions of pieces of mail every December - everything from your Christmas card to that relative you haven't seen or talked to in a year, that fruitcake for Uncle Albert, or that ugly sweater that your great aunt hand-knit for your teenage son. And more than often, and we're talking an incredible amount of the time, they get the job done without fault. But I have a complaint. It seems that every year, they manage to lose my official Eclipse Awards ballot. Around the first of December, I start skipping to the mailbox every day thinking that day is going to be the day it finally arrives. And every day, I end up dejectedly retreating from the mailbox, no ballot in hand. So where is it? Where all of the missing mail goes. Topeka, Kansas. I hope somebody there fills it out for me. Oh well, maybe next year.
Below are my selections for the 2009 Thoroughbred Eclipse Awards. These and $1.19 will get you a small coffee from McDonald's. But can a cup of coffee bring you such logical insight? Of course not. Then again, can this column keep you awake like a shot of caffeine can? You tell me.
Champion Apprentice Jockey
Inez Karlsson leads all apprentices in both wins and earnings, and made a very strong showing for herself at the Arlington Park summer meet, as well as several others. Wins at a solid 15% clip and hits the board at a 44% rate, and can't really find fault in anything that she's done in 2009. In most year's she'd be a runaway selection for me, but not 2009. I actually prefer Christian Santiago Reyes here. The 19 year old Puerto Rican import didn't earn his first victory in the States until April at Gulfstream, and immediately made a name for himself in Southern California. Has 93 winners on the year (fewer than Karlsson), $2,413,676 in earnings (fewer than Karlsson), but this is a kid that was a Top 6 rider at DelMar this summer (beating out veterans like Solis, Quinonez, and Smith), is currently in the Top 10 at Hollywood Park, and has made a name for himself in a very difficult jockey colony out west. Also checked in second in the rider standings at Fairplex Park, and won the Cal Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita. I also give guys like Luis Saez a ton of credit, and like I said, Karlsson is a heck of a rider, but ultimately Reyes gets the nod from me.
Pick - Christian Santiago Reyes
Champion Breeder
You might as well just rename this award the "Alright, we're going to let Frank talk for a few moments, I really hope he doesn't have spinach in his teeth" award, because it seems that Stronach's Adena Springs will be the premier breeder in North America for as long as he wants to keep pumping out thoroughbreds. He has won this award in 5 consecutive years, but he's deserved it. Led the nation in breeder wins and earnings by landslide margins in 2009, and also bred 3 graded stakes winners. Would be remiss if I didn't also give a mention to Juddmonte Farms, a 4-time winner of this award, who led all breeders with 10 graded wins and 6 Grade 1 wins, but had just 43 winners in North America. Probably horse for horse, they had a stronger year than Adena, but due to the sheer magnitude of the statistics, I still give the edge to Stronach and Co. If only Frank could have run racetracks like he ran his breeding conglomerate.
Pick - Adena Springs
Champion Owner
A pretty unique award in that, even with so many powerhouse stables nationwide, it has gone to a different owner every year since 2002. Not too bad for parity at all. And in 2009, it's pretty safe to say that voters have a ton of options from which to choose. WinStar Farm led the nation in earnings, and their impressive stable featured stars like Well Armed (Dubai World Cup), Court Vision (in a partnership with IEAH Stables; Shadwell Turf Mile), as well as three Kentucky Derby entrants, and three impressive juvenile graded winners (Rule, Super Saver, American Lion). Juddmonte Farms, scored 6 Grade 1 wins with Ventura, Champs Elysees, Midships, and Midday, the last being in the Breeders' Cup, but overall won just 27 races in North America. Godolphin Racing had another banner year, winning 8 Grade 1 races with a large number of different horses, including Pyro, Vineyard Haven, Music Note, Flashing, Seventh Street, and Gayego, and also won graded races with several others, including Sara Louise, Regal Ransom, Desert Party, and Girolamo, did well with Midshipman, who ran 3rd in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, which has still never been run on the dirt going a mile. My main concern with Godolphin's 2009 campaign is that essentially from January through July, and them from November on, Godolphin did nothing in North America. From August 1 - October 31, Godolphin won 6 of its 8 Grade 1 races. Michael J. Gill had another incredible year in the claiming game, winning at a clip of more than a race per day (364 winners through 12/20/09), and he's second in earnings, behind just WinStar. The usual knocks will come out - he does it all with claimers and he doesn't care enough for his horses - but he did win this award in 2005, so the precedent definitely exists. M/M Jerome S. Moss had a solid year that was capped by a win in the Breeders' Cup Classic by their spectacular Zenyatta, but beyond Zenyatta, their 2009 campaign wasn't overly deep. She accounted for 5 of their 7 graded wins, and all 4 of their Gr 1 victories.
Pick - Godolphin Racing
Champion Jockey
An award that is often won in bunches, 8 times since 1993 has the defending champion had his name called again. Jerry Bailey leads the way with 7 championships, and Johnny Velazquez, Mike Smith, and Garrett Gomez have 2 each, and Gomez is the two-time defending champion (2007, 2008). Can Gomez make it 3 straight in 2009? It's one tough decision. I went back and forth between Gomez and Julien Leparoux more than a few times, as each had banner years in thoroughbred racing. Leparoux holds an edge in both wins (247 to 206; through 12/20/09) and earnings ($18.56M to $18.33M), whereas Gomez holds the edge in win percentage and WPS percentage. Amazingly, both scored 34 graded victories, with Gomez holding the edge in G1 wins (13 to 10) and G2 wins (15 to 10), whereas Leparoux got the nod with G3 winners (14 to 6). Leparoux bagged three winners on the Breeders' Cup card, with Furthest Land, She Be Wild, and Informed Decision, whereas Gomez picked up just one (Life Is Sweet). Honestly, I think the statistics are so close that you could go either way with your choice, but I'm going with Leparoux. I love the way the guy rides, and if I were starting a horse, this is the guy I'd want to have in my corner. Not that Gomez is a bad alternative...
Pick - Julien Leparoux
Champion Trainer
The last time a trainer didn't win at least consecutive 'Champion Trainer' titles was way back in 1995, when Bill Mott knocked off D.W. Lukas' one year run. Since then, this award has been a series of runs - Bill Mott (2 years), Bob Baffert (3 years), Bobby Frankel (4 years), Todd Pletcher (4 years), and now it's Steve Asmussen's turn to try to make it two straight, and he probably should. For the third consecutive year, he broke his own record for victories in a season (640 and counting, more than twice what the second guy has). He also leads the country in earnings (more than $6M ahead of the next guy), and won 21 graded races, 7 of which came at the G1 level. His victories include the Woodward, Preakness, Cigar Mile, Vosburgh, Haskell, Mother Goose, and Spinaway, as well as the Jim Dandy, and many other elite races. He was the trainer of Rachel Alexandra from mid-May on. The other logical candidate is Bob Baffert. 'Baffy' led the nation with 10 Grade 1 wins and checked in 3rd nationally with earnings over $9M and sent 109 winners to have their picture taken. In most years his resume would be enough to get the nod, but not in 2009.
Pick - Steve Asmussen
Champion Female Sprinter
With a division that included stellar fillies/mares like Ventura, Indian Blessing, and Informed Decision, it's tough to think that this award could be won in landslide fashion, but I definitely think it should be. Informed Decision put together a campaign that saw her win 6 of 7 starts, 3 of which at the Gr 1 level, and her wins included the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, the Humana Distaff, the Madison Stakes, the TCA Stakes, the Chicago Handicap, and the Presque Isle Masters. She defeated Ventura twice, and won G1 races on both the dirt and synthetic. She earned $1,435,030 in her career. Ventura had a similarly dominating year, but I don't think this is the right award for her. She ran just three times in main track sprint races, and she lost 2 of those 3. The only sprint race she won in 2009 was the Gr 1 Santa Monica in January. She had a more dominating season running a mile on the turf. Have to give a shout-out to Indian Blessing, who retires with wins in 10 of 16 starts, and added the Gr 2 Gallant Bloom to her resume in 2009, and also placed in a pair of Gr 1 races - the Dubai Golden Shaheen against the boys and the Ballerina at Saratoga.
Pick - Informed Decision
Champion Male Sprinter
You want a wide-open division, this is it. I believe a case can be made for about 3 or 4 runners in this lot, but after much deliberation, I think I've got a choice. Zensational reeled off 3 Grade 1 wins from July through September, the Triple Bend, Bing Crosby, and Pat O Brien, and overall won 5 of 7 starts in 2009. I have a few concerns with him, though. I feel that in his three Gr 1 victories, he really beat no Gr 1 horses. And also, he flopped in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, checking in 5th of 9 behind Dancing in Silks. Then you've got Kodiak Kowboy, who ironically didn't check into the discussion until his victory in the 8f Cigar Mile Handicap, a race that isn't even technically a sprint. But overall, 'Kowboy does bring a solid resume to the table, with victories in the aforementioned Cigar Mile, as well as the Gr 1 Vosburgh, the Gr 1 Carter, and the ungraded Donald LeVine at Philly Park. He did win only once at the most traditional 6f distance, but the list of horses he defeated includes Fabulous Strike (twice), Vineyard Haven, Pyro, Bribon, Munnings, and Driven By Success. The best true sprinter in North America might actually be the incredibly talented California Flag, a turf sprinter who won 3 of 4 starts including the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, the Gr 3 Morvich Handicap, and the Green Flash at DelMar, and also ran a close-up 5th in the Gr 1 Cathway Pacific Hong Kong Sprint. Can't see the award going to a horse who lacks a Gr 1 win, though, but he's definitely the best on the turf in North America. Dancing in Silks won the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint, but other than that, his resume includes just one open-company win, and that came against allowance horses. His other wins came against restricted/state-bred company in the Cal Cup Sprint and the Pirates Bounty, and overall he just doesn't bring enough to the table. My main determining factor in making a choice here is level of competition, and I believe that Kodiak Kowboy, while he didn't excel at just a traditional sprint distance (although he is a Gr 1 winner going 6f), he beat better horses than did Zensational, and receives my backing here.
Pick - Kodiak Kowboy
Champion 2yo Female
Biases sometimes make for the easiest tie-breaker, but what is one to do when you're biased toward BOTH of the things that you're choosing between? Such is my plight in this category. On one hand I've got She Be Wild, the Juvenile Fillies (Gr 1) victor and the anchor-leg in my largest thoroughbred betting score ever. On the other hand, there is Blind Luck, a two-time Gr 1 winner and the daughter of one of my favorite horses of all-time, Pollard's Vision. Either would make a great choice for the champion in this division. She Be Wild won 4 of 5 this year, but only once at the Gr 1 level, and her only other graded win came in the Gr 3 Arlington-Washington Lassie. She placed in the Gr 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland, but defeated the best of her division, including Blind Luck, in the Breeders' Cup. Blind Luck won a pair of Gr 1's - the Hollywood Starlet and the Oak Leaf Stakes, and also placed in the Gr 1 Juvenile Fillies and the Gr 1 DelMar Debutante, and overall won 4 of 6 starts. She Be Wild did prove to be 3/4 of a length better in the Breeders' Cup, but Blind Luck responded with a 7-length romp in the Hollywood Starlet. I truly feel like this is a coin flip, but giving a slight edge to She Be Wild. I still think that Blind Luck benefited from the injury to Mi Sueno in California and picked up a few Gr 1 scores due to her retirement. It's a shame that Hot Dixie Chick feel off the map, because she might have been the best of any of these.
Pick - She Be Wild
Champion 2yo Male
One of the more open-and-shut cases, have to think this one begins and ends with Lookin At Lucky. A three-time Gr 1 winner, he took the CashCall Futurity, Norfolk Stakes, and DelMar Futurity, and just missed by a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Gr 1) after receiving a less than desirable trip from the far outside post. He also won the Gr 2 Best Pal and earned $1.2M and won 5 of 6 starts. Nobody else really comes close to what he accomplished in 2009, but I have to give a small shoutout to Noble's Promise for his campaign that saw him win or place in 4 stakes races, 3 of them graded. He just missed twice to Lookin At Lucky in the BC Juvenile (when third) and the CashCall Futurity (when second).
Pick - Lookin At Lucky
Champion 3yo Female
No discussion necessary here. If Rachel Alexandra doesn't win this unanimously, it'll be a crime. Winner of 5 Gr 1 races, including the Kentucky Oaks, Preakness, Mother Goose, Haskell, and Woodward, she earned more than $2.7M in 2009. It was a season so dominant that we may never see a 3yo filly campaigned so aggressively again.
Pick - Rachel Alexandra
Champion 3yo Male
I'm actually a strong believer that Summer Bird had one fo the most underrated campaigns seen by a 3yo male in some time. Reeled off victories in the Belmont, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup, and also placed in the Haskell and Gr 2 Arkansas Derby, and ran a strong 4th in the Breeders' Cup Classic over a surface completely foreign to him. Earned $2.3M this year, and should win this thing decisively. Mine That Bird won the Gr 1 Kentucky Derby, but went winless in 7 other starts in 2009, some such losses coming at Sunland Park and Mountaineer. Hard to deny that there is some talent in that gelding, but he needed to show more to deserve consideration here. Blame deserves a brief mention for his campaign, a two-time Gr 2 winner, but he did defeat the very talented Parading in the Fayette at Keeneland and Einstein, Macho Again, and several others in the Clark Handicap.
Pick - Summer Bird
Champion Turf Female
Category will explore the question of what is more appealing to voters - a great European or a very good North American. Goldikova won just one start in North America, that coming in the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup Mile against some of the best male milers in the world. She also earned a trio of Group 1 wins in France and Britain, and knocked off males in the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville. She proved, without question, to be arguably the world's best miler and female turfer in the world. Her main competitor here, Ventura, won a pair of Gr 1 races in 2009, the Woodbine Mile against males and the Matriach against her own sex. She also just missed to the incredibly talented Gio Ponti in the Frank Kilroe Turf Mile back in March. Ventura's other three starts came on the main track, and don't appear prevalent here. My biggest determining factor here is that Ventura, on the heels of her win over the boys in the Woodbine Mile, opted to choose the Filly & Mare Sprint over the Mile, skipping an opportunity to take on Goldikova. Ventura's turf campaign, just 3 races, doesn't do enough for me to pick her over Goldikova's one North American turf start, and I have no question in my mind that Goldikova was the more talented of the two.
Pick - Goldikova
Champion Turf Male
Very quietly, Gio Ponti put together one best turf campaigns you'll see from any horse. He showed dominance going 8f in the Frank Kilroe Mile (Gr 1), and stayed up to 11f in the Gr 1 Man O War. He also won twice going 10f in the Gr 1 Manhattan and Arlington Million. Only two horses in this division, Presious Passion and Take the Points, won more than one Gr 1, each nabbing two. European invader Conduit, the winner of the Breeders' Cup Turf (Gr 1) loses luster when his entire resume is taken into consideration. He won just one other start outside of the Turf in 2009.
Pick - Gio Ponti
Champion Older Female
Like Rachel Alexandra in the 3yo Female category, it'll be criminal if Zenyatta doesn't win this in a walkover. The winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic (Gr 1), Lady's Secret (Gr 1), Clement Hirsch (Gr 1), Vanity (Gr 1), and Milady (Gr 2), she defeated the Lady's Classic (Gr 1) winner Life is Sweet on three occasions. The only one that might have been able to defeat Zenyatta was Personal Ensign winner Icon Project, but she was injured and retired too quickly.
Pick - Zenyatta
Champion Older Male
This category will question how voters actually perceive this award. Given that sprinters have their own award, and that turfers have their own award, is this specifically limited to main track routers? If that is the case, it'll be interesting to see where the voters go. Macho Again, Einstein, Bullsbay, and Rail Trip took turns beating one another all year, and none won more than 2 graded races. Einstein took the Gr 1 Santa Anita Handicap and Gr 1 Turf Classic, and also placed in 4 graded races. Macho Again won the Gr 1 Stephen Foster and Gr 2 Oaklawn 'Cap, but missed the board in 4 of 8 tries. Rail Trip won just one graded race in 2009, the Gr 1 Hollywood Gold Cup, and also placed in 3 more. Bullsbay won just 3 of 11 starts in 2009, and although he did win the Gr 1 Whitney, he wasn't good enough otherwise. Kodiak Kowboy was the best of the sprinters, but some voters won't even give him that award. So, how can you give an award for champion older male if they're not even good enough to win the championship in their own division in some voter's eyes? You can't. That leaves me with Gio Ponti. Although turfers traditionally have their own award, there is no question in my mind that this one had the best campaign for any North American-based older male horse in 2009. He won 4 Gr 1 races (twice as many as any of his other competitors) including the Frank Kilroe Mile, the Arlington Million, the Manhattan, and Man O War. He also ran 2nd in the Breeders' Cup Classic (Gr 1), and 2nd in the Turf Classic Invitational (Gr 1). With earnings of $2.3M in 2009, he outearned most of his competitors for this award by more than $1M, and should receive this award, no matter what is surface of choice was. He twice finished ahead of Einstein in 2009 as well.
Pick - Gio Ponti
Horse of the Year
To me, this isn't even as close as it appears on paper. In a case I've made multiple times on a few different internet forums, I don't see how Rachel Alexandra doesn't win this award. A campaign that featured 5 Gr 1 wins, three of them against males, she set records and put together the best season by a 3yo filly in decades. Wins in the Woodward, Haskell, and Preakness against the boys, as well as romps in the Kentucky Oaks and Mother Goose, simply outweigh Zenyatta's campaign. It is impossible to knock Zenyatta, but what she didn't do outweighs what she did do. Zenyatta's connections took a chance just once this season, whereas Rachel Alexandra's connections took chances every step of the way after Jackson became the majority owner. While her wins in the Vanity, Milady, Lady's Secret, and Clement Hirsch were races that would pave the way for a walkover in Champion Older Female category, the did little to build her appeal for this category. One win in the Classic shouldn't and doesn't change what she failed to do all year, and that is take chances. Horse of the Year isn't a one race award, and the only way that I can see Zenyatta getting this is if the voters ignore what happened in January through October. People may point to Rachel Alexandra's small margin victory against Macho Again in the Woodward, but there's no ignoring the fact that Zenyatta barely escaped Anabaa's Creation at DelMar, and she's essentially an allowance horse. If I had to make this a 1, 2, 3 type choice, I might actually be inclined to choose Summer Bird over Zenyatta. Zenyatta had a great race in the Classic that will be remembered fora long, long time. Rachel Alexandra, on the other hand, had a great campaign that will be remembered for just as long. Awards like this are based on a campaign, not a race, and I can't make a case for Zenyatta here. Rachel Alexandra, while she may not have been the better horse, who knows there, had the better campaign and deserves this award.
Pick - Rachel Alexandra
Have a very Merry Christmas, everybody!
Monday, December 21, 2009
Monday, November 16, 2009
Bobby Frankel
Bobby Frankel died today. Something about it just seems surreal. One of the greatest trainers the world has ever known is gone. And even though he was blessed to live for 68 years, it still seems as if he's gone way too soon. I guess every death, in it's own way, feels like that, though.
I never had the opportunity to meet Mr. Frankel, and while I wish I had, I'm content to know of him through the stories passed along from others. Bobby Frankel was my favorite trainer in the game. I don't use the world master often, but if anyone deserves that title, it's him. Patient, but not quite to a fault, Mr. Frankel was the type of guy that would sit on a horse for weeks, if not longer, just waiting for that perfect race. And while this tactic might have drove fans crazy, it worked very, very well.
I remember when the Eclipse Awards ballot came out last year. 'Champion Trainer' finalists were Steve Asmussen, Rick Dutrow, and....Bobby Frankel? Frankel? How's he a finalist? So I ran to the statistics. Asmussen had earned 19+ million, trained Curlin, and won twice as many races as the next guy. Dutrow had nearly won a Triple Crown, and trained a handful of champions and G1 winners including Big Brown and Benny the Bull, and had been the 'face' of training for 2008. And then there's Frankel. Not Pletcher, not Mott, not Zito, Baffert or Suroor, but Frankel. What had he done? And then I dug in. He'd quietly won Grade 1 races with Ginger Punch, Mast Track, Double Trouble, Ariege, Vineyard Haven, First Defence, Ventura, Champs Elysees, and Precious Kitten. 9 different Grade 1 winners, really? But that's exactly how Frankel operated - quietly and under-the-radar. No glitz and glamour. No 'everybody look at me!' Just good, honest training.
My favorite Bobby Frankel memory came back in 2004. Horse racing has always kind of fought a stereotype where the connections of horses view their horses as an investment or cash cow (or more often, a sunk cost) rather than as a living, breathing creature. Not that I ever felt that way about it, but the stereotype is always there. But then I saw Sightseek culminate her career with an easy win in the Grade I Beldame. And then I saw the grizzled New Yorker, Bobby Frankel, in the winner's circle. And he was crying. He loved this mare. He loved all of his horses. They were another family to him.
Thanks for the memories, Mr. Frankel. And thank you for never apologizing for upsetting Funny Cide's Triple Crown bid.
RIP Bobby Frankel - you will be missed...
I never had the opportunity to meet Mr. Frankel, and while I wish I had, I'm content to know of him through the stories passed along from others. Bobby Frankel was my favorite trainer in the game. I don't use the world master often, but if anyone deserves that title, it's him. Patient, but not quite to a fault, Mr. Frankel was the type of guy that would sit on a horse for weeks, if not longer, just waiting for that perfect race. And while this tactic might have drove fans crazy, it worked very, very well.
I remember when the Eclipse Awards ballot came out last year. 'Champion Trainer' finalists were Steve Asmussen, Rick Dutrow, and....Bobby Frankel? Frankel? How's he a finalist? So I ran to the statistics. Asmussen had earned 19+ million, trained Curlin, and won twice as many races as the next guy. Dutrow had nearly won a Triple Crown, and trained a handful of champions and G1 winners including Big Brown and Benny the Bull, and had been the 'face' of training for 2008. And then there's Frankel. Not Pletcher, not Mott, not Zito, Baffert or Suroor, but Frankel. What had he done? And then I dug in. He'd quietly won Grade 1 races with Ginger Punch, Mast Track, Double Trouble, Ariege, Vineyard Haven, First Defence, Ventura, Champs Elysees, and Precious Kitten. 9 different Grade 1 winners, really? But that's exactly how Frankel operated - quietly and under-the-radar. No glitz and glamour. No 'everybody look at me!' Just good, honest training.
My favorite Bobby Frankel memory came back in 2004. Horse racing has always kind of fought a stereotype where the connections of horses view their horses as an investment or cash cow (or more often, a sunk cost) rather than as a living, breathing creature. Not that I ever felt that way about it, but the stereotype is always there. But then I saw Sightseek culminate her career with an easy win in the Grade I Beldame. And then I saw the grizzled New Yorker, Bobby Frankel, in the winner's circle. And he was crying. He loved this mare. He loved all of his horses. They were another family to him.
Thanks for the memories, Mr. Frankel. And thank you for never apologizing for upsetting Funny Cide's Triple Crown bid.
RIP Bobby Frankel - you will be missed...
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Handicapping Technique - Trust Thyself
So you see that horse, and something just tells you that he's destined to do something special down the line. Or you have that hunch that you cant get out of the back of your mind. Or you handicap a race for hours, and you keep coming back to the same conclusions. We've all been there. But then, just as we're about to rush to the windows, something happens. A so-called 'expert' jumps in and tells us why we can't win. Why our horse is too slow. Why the favorite we're trying to beat is too formidable. It's happened to all of us, and being a novice horse player, I've often deferred my opinion to the 'expert.' These guys are paid to know what they're talking about, right?
For me, this past Breeders' Cup is a microcosm of why little in handicapping and betting is more important than trusting your own instincts. With its rolling Pick 3's, huge betting pools, abundant Pick 4's, and lucrative Pick 6's, Breeders' Cup weekend is truly one where you can turn a hunch into a sizable return. The first Pick 3 sequence that included all Breeders' Cup races included races 3-5 on Friday, the Marathon, Juvenile Fillies Turf, and Juvenile Fillies. That's where my Pick 3 fun began -
From mid-September on, I wasn't higher on any juvenile filly than I was on She Be Wild. I loved her, even despite her loss in the Alcibiades (Gr I) at Keeneland. Unfortunately, in the week(s) following that Alcibiades loss, I couldn't find one handicapper who actually liked her in the Breeders' Cup. Likewise for the Marathon. Given the new 14f distance, it seemed incredibly likely, if not a lock, that the trophy for that race would go back to Europe. Problem is, four Europeans showed up - heavy favorites Mastery (9/5 ML odds) and Father Time (3/1), as well as Man of Iron (8/1) and longshot Muhannak (12/1). So, which to use, and which to toss?
I devised a small Pick 3 play for the sequence of races that was -
Mastery, Man of Iron / Lillie Langtry, Tapitsfly / She Be Wild
A $4 play in total, I ignored the prices on Father Time, House of Grace (4/1), Blind Luck (3/1), Always a Princess (6/1), and Negligee (6/1), but felt oddly confident. In the days leading up to the race, you wouldn't have found many who liked Man of Iron in that spot (he appeared second-tier at best), Tapitsfly (even though she'd soundly defeated 8/1 shot Smart Seattle in her lone turf try), and She Be Wild (whose I'd been on her bandwagon for weeks). The results started coming in -
Man of Iron (6.40/1) got the nod in the Marathon as Mastery flattened out and Father Time never took to the going. Good, but I figured I'd be alive after that leg. Tapitsly (9.80/1) ran down a dead-game Rose Catherine and took advantage of a rock-hard, quick turf course to use her speed to keep distance between herself and the closers. So, here I am. Alive in the Pick 3 to one horse. Could be worse, but it's tough to get too excited when you're alive to the 5th/6th betting choice in any given race. And in the 35 minutes between races, I completely fell off the bandwagon. I did the ultimate handicapping no-no. I started rewatching races. I reopened the past performances. I found about 147 reasons she wouldn't win, and none that she would.
Gomez was opting for Always a Princess. She had no excuse in losing her last. Leparoux has never been on her. The Beyers don't stand out. She's never run outside of the midwest. Blind Luck might just be THAT good. Is she even better than Negligee? She had a dream trip in her last and couldn't get things done. What happens if Connie and Michael is as advertised? Biofuel will be coming with a heck of a kick. Others appear stronger in the final eighth.
The poor girl I was watching the races with had to have found me to be the most annoying, pessimistic person on the face of the earth. Thank God the gates opened when they did, because I'm not sure I could have taken it much longer. And after what seemed to be the longest 1:43.80 of my life, and after a few tense moments where I thought Leparoux might not find running room soon enough, I had completed one of my life's goals - win a bet big enough that Uncle Sam wants a cut (next on the list - the Derby trifecta).
Unfortunately, it doesn't always work this nicely. Namely Saturday's 'Dirt' Mile. From the moment that Coolmore announced that Mastercraftsman would participate in this race, I hated him for the win. Just something didn't seem right at all. Why take a legitimate European Group I talent, and run him in this afterthought race? To me, the Classic, Mile, and even Turf seemed like much more logical spots. And for some reason, I loved Furthest Land in the race. Despite his 20/1 ML odds, I thought he had a huge chance. I fully expected Midshipman to do well, and even gave Ready's Echo more than one look. For me, this year's 'Dirt' Mile was more of a race of who couldn't win than who could win. Pyro will always hate synthetics. Same with Bullsbay. Mr. Sidney will always be a Grade II/III turf talent. Chocolate Candy will never be 'this' good. But just before post time, just as I was getting ready to unload on a ticket that included my 'top' horses, something regrettable happened. I caved. ESPN brought on Muttonchops and he praised Mastercraftsman. Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss told me how untouchable he was. The Hammer was ready to break open his piggy bank with him. All of these guys couldn't be wrong, right? So I did it. I convinced myself that 7/5 was an incredible price to take on this European Champion, and didn't place one bet where he wasn't keyed for the win. I played him all over Furthest Land, Midshipman, Neko Bay, and Ready's Echo, but never the obverse. With Mastercraftsman out of the trifecta, the exacta (Furthest Land / Ready's Echo) paid $329.10 for $1, and the trifecta (Furthest Land / Ready's Echo / Midshipman) paid $2,933.40 for a buck. Ouch.
Lessons learned. How'd your Breeders' Cup go?
For me, this past Breeders' Cup is a microcosm of why little in handicapping and betting is more important than trusting your own instincts. With its rolling Pick 3's, huge betting pools, abundant Pick 4's, and lucrative Pick 6's, Breeders' Cup weekend is truly one where you can turn a hunch into a sizable return. The first Pick 3 sequence that included all Breeders' Cup races included races 3-5 on Friday, the Marathon, Juvenile Fillies Turf, and Juvenile Fillies. That's where my Pick 3 fun began -
From mid-September on, I wasn't higher on any juvenile filly than I was on She Be Wild. I loved her, even despite her loss in the Alcibiades (Gr I) at Keeneland. Unfortunately, in the week(s) following that Alcibiades loss, I couldn't find one handicapper who actually liked her in the Breeders' Cup. Likewise for the Marathon. Given the new 14f distance, it seemed incredibly likely, if not a lock, that the trophy for that race would go back to Europe. Problem is, four Europeans showed up - heavy favorites Mastery (9/5 ML odds) and Father Time (3/1), as well as Man of Iron (8/1) and longshot Muhannak (12/1). So, which to use, and which to toss?
I devised a small Pick 3 play for the sequence of races that was -
Mastery, Man of Iron / Lillie Langtry, Tapitsfly / She Be Wild
A $4 play in total, I ignored the prices on Father Time, House of Grace (4/1), Blind Luck (3/1), Always a Princess (6/1), and Negligee (6/1), but felt oddly confident. In the days leading up to the race, you wouldn't have found many who liked Man of Iron in that spot (he appeared second-tier at best), Tapitsfly (even though she'd soundly defeated 8/1 shot Smart Seattle in her lone turf try), and She Be Wild (whose I'd been on her bandwagon for weeks). The results started coming in -
Man of Iron (6.40/1) got the nod in the Marathon as Mastery flattened out and Father Time never took to the going. Good, but I figured I'd be alive after that leg. Tapitsly (9.80/1) ran down a dead-game Rose Catherine and took advantage of a rock-hard, quick turf course to use her speed to keep distance between herself and the closers. So, here I am. Alive in the Pick 3 to one horse. Could be worse, but it's tough to get too excited when you're alive to the 5th/6th betting choice in any given race. And in the 35 minutes between races, I completely fell off the bandwagon. I did the ultimate handicapping no-no. I started rewatching races. I reopened the past performances. I found about 147 reasons she wouldn't win, and none that she would.
Gomez was opting for Always a Princess. She had no excuse in losing her last. Leparoux has never been on her. The Beyers don't stand out. She's never run outside of the midwest. Blind Luck might just be THAT good. Is she even better than Negligee? She had a dream trip in her last and couldn't get things done. What happens if Connie and Michael is as advertised? Biofuel will be coming with a heck of a kick. Others appear stronger in the final eighth.
The poor girl I was watching the races with had to have found me to be the most annoying, pessimistic person on the face of the earth. Thank God the gates opened when they did, because I'm not sure I could have taken it much longer. And after what seemed to be the longest 1:43.80 of my life, and after a few tense moments where I thought Leparoux might not find running room soon enough, I had completed one of my life's goals - win a bet big enough that Uncle Sam wants a cut (next on the list - the Derby trifecta).
Unfortunately, it doesn't always work this nicely. Namely Saturday's 'Dirt' Mile. From the moment that Coolmore announced that Mastercraftsman would participate in this race, I hated him for the win. Just something didn't seem right at all. Why take a legitimate European Group I talent, and run him in this afterthought race? To me, the Classic, Mile, and even Turf seemed like much more logical spots. And for some reason, I loved Furthest Land in the race. Despite his 20/1 ML odds, I thought he had a huge chance. I fully expected Midshipman to do well, and even gave Ready's Echo more than one look. For me, this year's 'Dirt' Mile was more of a race of who couldn't win than who could win. Pyro will always hate synthetics. Same with Bullsbay. Mr. Sidney will always be a Grade II/III turf talent. Chocolate Candy will never be 'this' good. But just before post time, just as I was getting ready to unload on a ticket that included my 'top' horses, something regrettable happened. I caved. ESPN brought on Muttonchops and he praised Mastercraftsman. Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss told me how untouchable he was. The Hammer was ready to break open his piggy bank with him. All of these guys couldn't be wrong, right? So I did it. I convinced myself that 7/5 was an incredible price to take on this European Champion, and didn't place one bet where he wasn't keyed for the win. I played him all over Furthest Land, Midshipman, Neko Bay, and Ready's Echo, but never the obverse. With Mastercraftsman out of the trifecta, the exacta (Furthest Land / Ready's Echo) paid $329.10 for $1, and the trifecta (Furthest Land / Ready's Echo / Midshipman) paid $2,933.40 for a buck. Ouch.
Lessons learned. How'd your Breeders' Cup go?
Friday, November 6, 2009
Breeders' Cup Saturday
Juvenile Turf
I genuinely appreciate the Breeders' Cup brass for getting this race out of the way early on the card. From a handicapping perspective, this thing is wide open. Five Europeans ship in, and they represent the powerhouse stables of Godolphin, Coolmore, and Mrs. Susan Roy. You won't find any holes in the past performances of Viscount Nelson (6/1), and at that price he'll be worth a try. The son of Giant's Causeway just missed in the Group II Champagne last out at Doncaster, and he earned a RP Rating of 112 for that performance. Not to be outdone, John Gosden's Pounced (9/2) placed in the Group I Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere last time at Longchamp, and he earned a 114 Racing Post Rating. Godolphin's Buzzword (6/1) has been running in top company all year, and while he's only a Group III winner, he's never been far behind.
The top American hopes lie in Interactif (4/1) and Bridgetown (8/1). Frankly, both can probably win this. Interactif has one of the nicest closing kicks I've seen in a 2yo, but that's a dangerous script to write. A dozen in this field and Desormeaux may not have any beat as they make their way down the backstretch. Not sure that's what I'm looking for from a horse who's actually cutting back in distance off his last two starts. He could have a run like "closed belatedly" written all over him. I kind of really have taken a liking to Bridgetown. He appears to have taken to the Southern California surroundings and scored a win at the distance last out at Woodbine.
1. Pounced
2. Bridgetown
3. Interactif
Turf Sprint
What a great idea it was to add this race! I knew I was a big fan after California Flag and Mr. Nightlinger went :20 3/5 and :41 4/5, 1:05 1/5 last year. Will they go as quick in 2009? It's hard to imagine, but...
In horse racing, you never know. I'm not sure that I see it, but they certainly won't be crawling, either. I expect a quick pace and everybody will be in with a shot turning for home. Cannonball (8/1) was nearly a Group I winner at Ascot for Wesley Ward, and is in the best form of his career. This race will take a lot of luck, but you have to like that Dominguez is aboard. In this crapshoot, he's my top pick.
A European that I've taken a liking to is Jeremy Noseda's Strike the Deal (15/1). The deep closer won a Group III last out at Newbury (GB). Desert Code (20/1) and Diamondrella (4/1) also appear dangerous. Not spending too much time trying to 'cap this cavalry charge...
1. Cannonball
2. Strike the Deal
3. Desert Code
Sprint
Definitely lines up to be an exciting contest boasting some of the quickest horses in the world. Zensational (7/5) and Fatal Bullet (9/2) each have sub-:22 gate speed, and something tells me that talent will be on display in earnest on Saturday.
Honestly, I can't like either off the expected speed duel, and I expect them to come back to the field. Of the closers, two really stand out - Gayego (5/2) and Capt. Candyman Can (15/1), and quite frankly, there's absolutely no way there should be that much discrepency in price between the two. Capt Candyman Can arrived a bit late on the scene last out when up against Fatal Bullet at Keeneland. Unfortunately, he just doesnt seem built for 6f. On the other hand, Gayego is a perfect 4-for-4 at the distance, including a win last out over this track in the Ancient Title (Gr I). I think he gets it done here, but it won't be easy at all.
1. Gayego
2. Fatal Bullet
3. Capt Candyman Can
Juvenile
Essentially the biggest question in here is what to do with D'Funnybone (5/2). The Paul Pompa runner is, in my mind at least, the best main track runner in this field. Unfortunately, he's never been on the synthetics, nor has he ever competed around two turns. He's been working great at Aqueduct for this under Rick Dutrow's care, but how his form carries over onto the synthetic is anyone's best guess. I'm going to go with my gut and not include him here. Odds are that he's either a sprinter at heart or won't like the surface...or perhaps even both.
I think you really have to respect the Pletcher runners in here. Dogwood's Aikenite (8/1) just missed in the Breeders' Futurity (Gr I) at Keeneland, and Zayat's Eskendereya (10/1) won the off-the-turf Pilgrm Stakes last out at Belmont. Aikenite is Gr I palced on the synthetics, while Eskendereya was a runner-up in his turf debut.
I hate the post that Lookin at Lucky (8/5) drew, and while he's the best juvenile in California, I'm not sure that he's well enough clear of the reste of these to overcome his post. I consider him to be a worthy adversary, but a solid play-against.
Not really a huge fan of any of the Euros - Coolmore's duo of Alfred Nobel and Beethoven are both 20/1 on the ML, and they've already run a combined 17 times since May.
1. Aikenite
2. Aspire
3. Lookin At Lucky
Mile
The world looked great for Goldikova (8/5)...until last month, at least. That was when the 'monster' was upset in shocking fashion in the Prix de la Foret (Gr I) at Longchamp, a stark drop off in form that had seen her take a trio of Group I races in her three prior starts, including one against the boys at Deauville. Now, what do you do with her this year? She drew a tough post (11) and even though the American contingent seems to be lacking flair, 3 of her fellow Europeans look to make this no walk in the park.
Juddmonte's Zacinto (8/1) is getting so good that it's almost scary. The 3yo was beaten just 1 1/4 lengths last out by Classic hopeful Rip Van Winkle, and he was also 3 1/4 lengths clear of Delegator that day. Delegator is 3/1 in this field. Zacinto is a horse that is moving into form at the right time and needs to be respected.
I honestly am having trouble making any real case for most of the American's, besdies Ferneley (20/1). The Ben Cecil-trainee is in the form of his career, back in his home state, and ready to roll. Don't toss him, even at that price.
1. Zacinto
2. Goldikova
3. Ferneley
Dirt Mile
To see past Mastercrafstman (6/5) or not is the only question, and in betting this race, I think you do both. One set of wagers where he's very prominent on top, the other where he isn't. To me, it seems very odd that they'd run him here instead of a) the Classic, or b) the Mile, or even c) the Turf.
Race is wide open but I look forward to having some fun with Furthest Land (20/1), Midshipman (6/1), and Ready's Echo (20/1).
1. Midshipman
2. Mastercraftsman
3. Furthest Land
Turf
Unfortunately, this one just came up weaker than stronger this year. Fortunately, about 4 of these are still good enough to win - Conduit (7/5), Spanish Moon (5/2), Dar Re Mi (3/1), and Presious Passion (4/1) all bring great records into this and all have a sizable shot.
Would be appropriate if Dar Re Mi got the job done this year, but just don't think she's good enough to knock off Conduit...
1. Conduit
2. Spanish Moon
3. Dar Re Mi
Classic
It's not my year for handicapping this thing. Have spent too long trying to make heads or tails of about 10 of these, who all shold have a great shot at winning (from the rail) - Colonel John (12/1), Summer Bird (9/2), Zenyatta (5/2), Twice Over (20/1), Richard's Kid (12/1), Gio Ponti (12/1), Einstein (12/1), Rip Van Winkle (7/2), and Quality Road (12/1). If anyone can tell me how any of these will or will not definitely hit the board, I'd love to shake their hand. This thing is just too wide open. Taking a stab in the dark here and going with -
1. Richard's Kid
2. Zenyatta
3. Einstein
I genuinely appreciate the Breeders' Cup brass for getting this race out of the way early on the card. From a handicapping perspective, this thing is wide open. Five Europeans ship in, and they represent the powerhouse stables of Godolphin, Coolmore, and Mrs. Susan Roy. You won't find any holes in the past performances of Viscount Nelson (6/1), and at that price he'll be worth a try. The son of Giant's Causeway just missed in the Group II Champagne last out at Doncaster, and he earned a RP Rating of 112 for that performance. Not to be outdone, John Gosden's Pounced (9/2) placed in the Group I Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere last time at Longchamp, and he earned a 114 Racing Post Rating. Godolphin's Buzzword (6/1) has been running in top company all year, and while he's only a Group III winner, he's never been far behind.
The top American hopes lie in Interactif (4/1) and Bridgetown (8/1). Frankly, both can probably win this. Interactif has one of the nicest closing kicks I've seen in a 2yo, but that's a dangerous script to write. A dozen in this field and Desormeaux may not have any beat as they make their way down the backstretch. Not sure that's what I'm looking for from a horse who's actually cutting back in distance off his last two starts. He could have a run like "closed belatedly" written all over him. I kind of really have taken a liking to Bridgetown. He appears to have taken to the Southern California surroundings and scored a win at the distance last out at Woodbine.
1. Pounced
2. Bridgetown
3. Interactif
Turf Sprint
What a great idea it was to add this race! I knew I was a big fan after California Flag and Mr. Nightlinger went :20 3/5 and :41 4/5, 1:05 1/5 last year. Will they go as quick in 2009? It's hard to imagine, but...
In horse racing, you never know. I'm not sure that I see it, but they certainly won't be crawling, either. I expect a quick pace and everybody will be in with a shot turning for home. Cannonball (8/1) was nearly a Group I winner at Ascot for Wesley Ward, and is in the best form of his career. This race will take a lot of luck, but you have to like that Dominguez is aboard. In this crapshoot, he's my top pick.
A European that I've taken a liking to is Jeremy Noseda's Strike the Deal (15/1). The deep closer won a Group III last out at Newbury (GB). Desert Code (20/1) and Diamondrella (4/1) also appear dangerous. Not spending too much time trying to 'cap this cavalry charge...
1. Cannonball
2. Strike the Deal
3. Desert Code
Sprint
Definitely lines up to be an exciting contest boasting some of the quickest horses in the world. Zensational (7/5) and Fatal Bullet (9/2) each have sub-:22 gate speed, and something tells me that talent will be on display in earnest on Saturday.
Honestly, I can't like either off the expected speed duel, and I expect them to come back to the field. Of the closers, two really stand out - Gayego (5/2) and Capt. Candyman Can (15/1), and quite frankly, there's absolutely no way there should be that much discrepency in price between the two. Capt Candyman Can arrived a bit late on the scene last out when up against Fatal Bullet at Keeneland. Unfortunately, he just doesnt seem built for 6f. On the other hand, Gayego is a perfect 4-for-4 at the distance, including a win last out over this track in the Ancient Title (Gr I). I think he gets it done here, but it won't be easy at all.
1. Gayego
2. Fatal Bullet
3. Capt Candyman Can
Juvenile
Essentially the biggest question in here is what to do with D'Funnybone (5/2). The Paul Pompa runner is, in my mind at least, the best main track runner in this field. Unfortunately, he's never been on the synthetics, nor has he ever competed around two turns. He's been working great at Aqueduct for this under Rick Dutrow's care, but how his form carries over onto the synthetic is anyone's best guess. I'm going to go with my gut and not include him here. Odds are that he's either a sprinter at heart or won't like the surface...or perhaps even both.
I think you really have to respect the Pletcher runners in here. Dogwood's Aikenite (8/1) just missed in the Breeders' Futurity (Gr I) at Keeneland, and Zayat's Eskendereya (10/1) won the off-the-turf Pilgrm Stakes last out at Belmont. Aikenite is Gr I palced on the synthetics, while Eskendereya was a runner-up in his turf debut.
I hate the post that Lookin at Lucky (8/5) drew, and while he's the best juvenile in California, I'm not sure that he's well enough clear of the reste of these to overcome his post. I consider him to be a worthy adversary, but a solid play-against.
Not really a huge fan of any of the Euros - Coolmore's duo of Alfred Nobel and Beethoven are both 20/1 on the ML, and they've already run a combined 17 times since May.
1. Aikenite
2. Aspire
3. Lookin At Lucky
Mile
The world looked great for Goldikova (8/5)...until last month, at least. That was when the 'monster' was upset in shocking fashion in the Prix de la Foret (Gr I) at Longchamp, a stark drop off in form that had seen her take a trio of Group I races in her three prior starts, including one against the boys at Deauville. Now, what do you do with her this year? She drew a tough post (11) and even though the American contingent seems to be lacking flair, 3 of her fellow Europeans look to make this no walk in the park.
Juddmonte's Zacinto (8/1) is getting so good that it's almost scary. The 3yo was beaten just 1 1/4 lengths last out by Classic hopeful Rip Van Winkle, and he was also 3 1/4 lengths clear of Delegator that day. Delegator is 3/1 in this field. Zacinto is a horse that is moving into form at the right time and needs to be respected.
I honestly am having trouble making any real case for most of the American's, besdies Ferneley (20/1). The Ben Cecil-trainee is in the form of his career, back in his home state, and ready to roll. Don't toss him, even at that price.
1. Zacinto
2. Goldikova
3. Ferneley
Dirt Mile
To see past Mastercrafstman (6/5) or not is the only question, and in betting this race, I think you do both. One set of wagers where he's very prominent on top, the other where he isn't. To me, it seems very odd that they'd run him here instead of a) the Classic, or b) the Mile, or even c) the Turf.
Race is wide open but I look forward to having some fun with Furthest Land (20/1), Midshipman (6/1), and Ready's Echo (20/1).
1. Midshipman
2. Mastercraftsman
3. Furthest Land
Turf
Unfortunately, this one just came up weaker than stronger this year. Fortunately, about 4 of these are still good enough to win - Conduit (7/5), Spanish Moon (5/2), Dar Re Mi (3/1), and Presious Passion (4/1) all bring great records into this and all have a sizable shot.
Would be appropriate if Dar Re Mi got the job done this year, but just don't think she's good enough to knock off Conduit...
1. Conduit
2. Spanish Moon
3. Dar Re Mi
Classic
It's not my year for handicapping this thing. Have spent too long trying to make heads or tails of about 10 of these, who all shold have a great shot at winning (from the rail) - Colonel John (12/1), Summer Bird (9/2), Zenyatta (5/2), Twice Over (20/1), Richard's Kid (12/1), Gio Ponti (12/1), Einstein (12/1), Rip Van Winkle (7/2), and Quality Road (12/1). If anyone can tell me how any of these will or will not definitely hit the board, I'd love to shake their hand. This thing is just too wide open. Taking a stab in the dark here and going with -
1. Richard's Kid
2. Zenyatta
3. Einstein
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Breeders' Cup Friday
Breeders Cup Friday
Well, my friends, it's here. It's been more than a year since we experienced the heart-pounding thrills of the 2008 Breeders' Cup, and this particular blogger couldn't be more excited to feel it again. While the Kentucky Derby is the most exciting two minutes and sports, and the Derby Trail and Triple Crown season give us a myriad of thrills and memories, nothing seems to match the overall excitement and magnitude of the Breeders' Cup. With 14 races, $25.5 million in purses, and the world's elite trainers, riders, and, of course, horses all in one place, it's assured that legacies will be forged, memories will be made, and we're going to see things that make us say 'wow.'
Many condemn the Friday/Saturday format of the Cup, but it's growing on me...and quickly. These races are all extremely competitive, and are composed of horses that racing fans want to see. Imagine the Cup without Ventrua. Or Informed Decision. Without the excitement of the Turf Sprint. Like I said, I like it. Let's take a look at Friday's half-dozen -
Marathon
The first race of the card probably sets up to be the most forgettable races of the day. Unfortunately, there just is minimal appeal for this, especially stateside. You can't put a $500,000 pricetag on a race like this and just expect people to show up. Amazingly, but not surprisingly, that's not enough incentive. The American contingent here - Black Astor, Nite Light, Cloudy's Knight, Sir Dave, Eldaafer, and Gangbuster - are completely at the mercy of their European counterparts - Mastery, Father Time, Man of Iron, and Muhannak. The Europeans figure to dominate the wagering, with Mastery (9/5), Father Time (3/1), and Man of Iron (8/1) the first, second, and fourth choices on the morning line.
While many European's contesting main track races will be questioned due to their lack of racing on an all-weather surface, each of the four invaders has already competed, and three have won, over a synthetic track. Mastery and Father Time have already competed at this distance, with Mastery a Group I winner (St Leger) going 14 furlongs.
Even at this elongated distance, I don't anticipate an overly pedestrian pace. I expect Solis to push Black Astor (12/1) from the rail, and wouldn't be surprised if they open up lengths on the field. Big work on 10/24 (6f in 1:11 3/5) indicates he's ready to run, run, run. Don't expect Nite Light (4/1) to let him get too far away, but having trouble loving the Pletcher runner at the distance. Frankie Dettori should have Mastery placed midpack, but my gut tells me to play against him here. If he wins at even money, that's fine. Father Time is a 3yo son of Dansili that trailed Mastery by just 3 1/2 lengths in the St Leger, but I think he could receive a favorable set up here, and he'll be moving well late.
Wiseguy pick looks to be Cloudy's Knight (8/1) - he's won two straight on the turf going 12f - and trainer Jonathan Sheppard ran him in the Sycamore (Gr III) on October 22 with this race in mind. Problem I see is that this horse isn't a spring chicken anymore - he's now 9 - and he's probably lost a few steps off his top form. He's never run on a synthetic track, but I like that this has been the goal the whole time.
Had briefly considered Man of Iron, but I don't like the way he seems to be regarded in Europe. Was sent off at 33/1 in a Group III synthetic stakes at Dundalk, and while he was 4th that day, I don't like the way he flattened out there and even though he was no match for Mastercraftsman, he should have been better than 4th. He is a half to Jazil and Rags to Riches, but I'm not sure that has much to do with anything.
1. Father Time
2. Cloudy's Knight
3. Mastery
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Race really appears to scream chalk. Coolmore's Lillie Langtry (3/1) is a winner of 3-of-6 lifetime, including the Group II Debutante at Leopardstown and a Group III at Naas. Daughter of Danehill Dancer has never been beyond 7f, but I don't anticipate that being a concern. This is a very subpar group of American fillies, and she should have few issues with this lot.
Top American hopes look to be House of Grace (4/1) and Smart Seattle (8/1), who were the 1-2 finishers of Keeneland's Jessamine Stakes. Don't pay attention to the fact that they're separated on the ML - these fillies are about as close in talent as you'll find, and I find it very tough to like one but not the other. Luckily, I like Tapitsfly (8/1) more than both. The Dale Romans-trainee won Saratoga's PG Johnson in her only turf try, and she knocked off Smart Seattle in the process. She earned an 81 Beyer that day, which isn't great in and of itself, but makes her very competitive in this lot.
1. Lillie Langry
2. Tapitsfly
3. Smart Seattle
Juvenile Fillies
This is one of those races that, for better or for worse, I latched onto a filly a while ago and I'm going to ride things out with her. I loved the first three races of She Be Wild's (8/1) career, and liked her last, even though she was beaten in the Alcibiades (Gr I) by Negligee (6/1). She loses Gomez, but picks up Leparoux, and have to wonder if the Alcibiades was kind of used as a prep for this. She's got good tactical speed and should be more prepared to get the distance than many of her counterparts.
Baffert is huge on Always a Princess (6/1), and I can see why. Inexperienced daughter of Leroidesanimaux was second in the Oak Leaf (Gr I), even though that represented only her second career start.
Connie and Michael (4/1) earned a huge Beyer Speed Figure in her debut at Keeneland, getting 7f in 1:22 3/5 en route to a 7 3/4-length win and a 95 Beyer, but offers little value at that price and this would be a very tough task.
Blind Luck is the best of the Californians and figures to be a huge factor.
1. She Be Wild
2. Blind Luck
3. Always a Princess
Filly & Mare Turf
This race sets up to be one of my potential 'bomb' races, meaning that I fully expect something to happen to really shake things up. The favorites - Forever Together (5/2), Magical Fantasy (3/1), Midday (4/1), and Pure Clan (5/1) - all have major problems (in my mind at least) that will make me think twice before using them.
There figures to be a real duel on the front end, but instead of a speed duel, it'll be a bunch of riders not trying to take the lead. Visit (10/1) flashed a bit of speed in the Yellow Ribbon (Gr I) last out, and she also ran 4th in this race last year at 17/1, so the back class is there. She loses Gomez, but picks up Velazquez, plus she loves this course and excels at the distance. She'll figure.
Same with Rutherienne (8/1). She hasn't missed the board since 2007, all in graded stakes. She doesn't look like a winner, though.
Midday is my choice of the favorites - shows great form, is a Group I winner at the distance. She has some tactical speed and I just don't see many detriments.
1. Midday
2. Rutherienne
3. Forever Together
Filly & Mare Sprint
Probably the race of the day...
The Ventura/Informed Decision exacta box is probably the exacta lock of the event, as these two appears heads above their competition in every facet of the game. Consistency, speed, adaptability, affinity for synthetics, and a great record at the distance.
Personally, I fancy Ventura. I think she's in better form and is more rested than Informed Decision, who's had a long and difficult campaign. I've heard nothing but rave reviews about how Ventura has looked, and this is a mare who's been running with some of the world's best thoroughbreds this year. Remember, she was only beaten a nose by Gio Ponti in the Kilroe (Gr I) back in March.
1. Ventura
2. Informed Decision
3. Seventh Street
Ladies' Classic
Favorites are Careless Jewel (2/1) and Music Note (9/5). Personally I don't like Careless Jewel much at all. I think she completely lacks class and has looked good beating bad horses, but this is a whole new league. I expect the wheels to come off here.
Music Note appears the best of a very average crop, so I'll use her but not overly confident in it. Im more interested in the place/show horses. I think Proviso and Rainbow View both bounce off strong 'off the plane' efforts. Mushka isn't a fast horse, but she's in peak form and that's something that is very dangerous this time of the year.
I find it hard to like Life is Sweet as she just continues running in the wrong direction in regard to her form, but I do kind of fancy Lethal Heat . The pace sets up for her, but she's just never been this good.
Look out for Cocoa Beach. This is a track that suits her well and she likes the distance (3 for 5 lifetime, 100% ITM) and there is no Zenyatta in here for her to chase.
1. Music Note
2. Mushka
3. Cocoa Beach
Good luck on Friday! Will be back tomorrow night with some thoughts on the Friday results as well as Saturday's selections
Many condemn the Friday/Saturday format of the Cup, but it's growing on me...and quickly. These races are all extremely competitive, and are composed of horses that racing fans want to see. Imagine the Cup without Ventrua. Or Informed Decision. Without the excitement of the Turf Sprint. Like I said, I like it. Let's take a look at Friday's half-dozen -
Marathon
The first race of the card probably sets up to be the most forgettable races of the day. Unfortunately, there just is minimal appeal for this, especially stateside. You can't put a $500,000 pricetag on a race like this and just expect people to show up. Amazingly, but not surprisingly, that's not enough incentive. The American contingent here - Black Astor, Nite Light, Cloudy's Knight, Sir Dave, Eldaafer, and Gangbuster - are completely at the mercy of their European counterparts - Mastery, Father Time, Man of Iron, and Muhannak. The Europeans figure to dominate the wagering, with Mastery (9/5), Father Time (3/1), and Man of Iron (8/1) the first, second, and fourth choices on the morning line.
While many European's contesting main track races will be questioned due to their lack of racing on an all-weather surface, each of the four invaders has already competed, and three have won, over a synthetic track. Mastery and Father Time have already competed at this distance, with Mastery a Group I winner (St Leger) going 14 furlongs.
Even at this elongated distance, I don't anticipate an overly pedestrian pace. I expect Solis to push Black Astor (12/1) from the rail, and wouldn't be surprised if they open up lengths on the field. Big work on 10/24 (6f in 1:11 3/5) indicates he's ready to run, run, run. Don't expect Nite Light (4/1) to let him get too far away, but having trouble loving the Pletcher runner at the distance. Frankie Dettori should have Mastery placed midpack, but my gut tells me to play against him here. If he wins at even money, that's fine. Father Time is a 3yo son of Dansili that trailed Mastery by just 3 1/2 lengths in the St Leger, but I think he could receive a favorable set up here, and he'll be moving well late.
Wiseguy pick looks to be Cloudy's Knight (8/1) - he's won two straight on the turf going 12f - and trainer Jonathan Sheppard ran him in the Sycamore (Gr III) on October 22 with this race in mind. Problem I see is that this horse isn't a spring chicken anymore - he's now 9 - and he's probably lost a few steps off his top form. He's never run on a synthetic track, but I like that this has been the goal the whole time.
Had briefly considered Man of Iron, but I don't like the way he seems to be regarded in Europe. Was sent off at 33/1 in a Group III synthetic stakes at Dundalk, and while he was 4th that day, I don't like the way he flattened out there and even though he was no match for Mastercraftsman, he should have been better than 4th. He is a half to Jazil and Rags to Riches, but I'm not sure that has much to do with anything.
1. Father Time
2. Cloudy's Knight
3. Mastery
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Race really appears to scream chalk. Coolmore's Lillie Langtry (3/1) is a winner of 3-of-6 lifetime, including the Group II Debutante at Leopardstown and a Group III at Naas. Daughter of Danehill Dancer has never been beyond 7f, but I don't anticipate that being a concern. This is a very subpar group of American fillies, and she should have few issues with this lot.
Top American hopes look to be House of Grace (4/1) and Smart Seattle (8/1), who were the 1-2 finishers of Keeneland's Jessamine Stakes. Don't pay attention to the fact that they're separated on the ML - these fillies are about as close in talent as you'll find, and I find it very tough to like one but not the other. Luckily, I like Tapitsfly (8/1) more than both. The Dale Romans-trainee won Saratoga's PG Johnson in her only turf try, and she knocked off Smart Seattle in the process. She earned an 81 Beyer that day, which isn't great in and of itself, but makes her very competitive in this lot.
1. Lillie Langry
2. Tapitsfly
3. Smart Seattle
Juvenile Fillies
This is one of those races that, for better or for worse, I latched onto a filly a while ago and I'm going to ride things out with her. I loved the first three races of She Be Wild's (8/1) career, and liked her last, even though she was beaten in the Alcibiades (Gr I) by Negligee (6/1). She loses Gomez, but picks up Leparoux, and have to wonder if the Alcibiades was kind of used as a prep for this. She's got good tactical speed and should be more prepared to get the distance than many of her counterparts.
Baffert is huge on Always a Princess (6/1), and I can see why. Inexperienced daughter of Leroidesanimaux was second in the Oak Leaf (Gr I), even though that represented only her second career start.
Connie and Michael (4/1) earned a huge Beyer Speed Figure in her debut at Keeneland, getting 7f in 1:22 3/5 en route to a 7 3/4-length win and a 95 Beyer, but offers little value at that price and this would be a very tough task.
Blind Luck is the best of the Californians and figures to be a huge factor.
1. She Be Wild
2. Blind Luck
3. Always a Princess
Filly & Mare Turf
This race sets up to be one of my potential 'bomb' races, meaning that I fully expect something to happen to really shake things up. The favorites - Forever Together (5/2), Magical Fantasy (3/1), Midday (4/1), and Pure Clan (5/1) - all have major problems (in my mind at least) that will make me think twice before using them.
There figures to be a real duel on the front end, but instead of a speed duel, it'll be a bunch of riders not trying to take the lead. Visit (10/1) flashed a bit of speed in the Yellow Ribbon (Gr I) last out, and she also ran 4th in this race last year at 17/1, so the back class is there. She loses Gomez, but picks up Velazquez, plus she loves this course and excels at the distance. She'll figure.
Same with Rutherienne (8/1). She hasn't missed the board since 2007, all in graded stakes. She doesn't look like a winner, though.
Midday is my choice of the favorites - shows great form, is a Group I winner at the distance. She has some tactical speed and I just don't see many detriments.
1. Midday
2. Rutherienne
3. Forever Together
Filly & Mare Sprint
Probably the race of the day...
The Ventura/Informed Decision exacta box is probably the exacta lock of the event, as these two appears heads above their competition in every facet of the game. Consistency, speed, adaptability, affinity for synthetics, and a great record at the distance.
Personally, I fancy Ventura. I think she's in better form and is more rested than Informed Decision, who's had a long and difficult campaign. I've heard nothing but rave reviews about how Ventura has looked, and this is a mare who's been running with some of the world's best thoroughbreds this year. Remember, she was only beaten a nose by Gio Ponti in the Kilroe (Gr I) back in March.
1. Ventura
2. Informed Decision
3. Seventh Street
Ladies' Classic
Favorites are Careless Jewel (2/1) and Music Note (9/5). Personally I don't like Careless Jewel much at all. I think she completely lacks class and has looked good beating bad horses, but this is a whole new league. I expect the wheels to come off here.
Music Note appears the best of a very average crop, so I'll use her but not overly confident in it. Im more interested in the place/show horses. I think Proviso and Rainbow View both bounce off strong 'off the plane' efforts. Mushka isn't a fast horse, but she's in peak form and that's something that is very dangerous this time of the year.
I find it hard to like Life is Sweet as she just continues running in the wrong direction in regard to her form, but I do kind of fancy Lethal Heat . The pace sets up for her, but she's just never been this good.
Look out for Cocoa Beach. This is a track that suits her well and she likes the distance (3 for 5 lifetime, 100% ITM) and there is no Zenyatta in here for her to chase.
1. Music Note
2. Mushka
3. Cocoa Beach
Good luck on Friday! Will be back tomorrow night with some thoughts on the Friday results as well as Saturday's selections
Monday, October 19, 2009
Breeders' Cup Contenders (10/19/09)
With the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships just a tantalizing 17 days away, I felt it would be pretty interesting (not to mention time consuming) to try to at least accumulate a very raw list of which thoroughbreds would be competing at Santa Anita. Here's what I learned -
Breeders Cup Classic (10f; 3yo +)
Probable
Awesome Gem (C. Dollase/A. Solis)
Colonel John (E. Harty/G. Gomez)
Einstein [Brz] (H. Pitts-Blasi/J. Leparoux)
Gio Ponti (C. Clement/R. Dominguez)
Macho Again (D. Stewart/R. Albarado)
Mastercraftsman [Ire] (A. O'Brien/J. Murtagh)
Mine That Bird (B. Woolley Jr./C. Borel)
Quality Road (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)
Richard's Kid (B. Baffert/V. Espinoza)
Rip Van Winkle [Ire] (A. O'Brien/J. Murtagh)
Summer Bird (T. Ice/K. Desormeaux)
Possible
Bullsbay (H. Motion/J. Rose)
Girolamo (S. Suroor/A. Garcia)
Regal Ransom (S. Suroor/R. Migliore)
Twice Over [GB] (H. Cecil/T. Queally)
Zenyatta (J. Shirreffs/M. Smith)
Breeders Cup Turf (12f Turf; 3yo +)
Probable
Conduit [Ire] (M. Stoute/R. Moore)
Presious Passion (M. Hartmann/E. Trujillo)
Red Rocks [Ire] (B. Meehan/J. Castellano)
Spanish Moon (M. Stoute/R. Moore)
Possible
Ask [GB] (M. Soute/O. Peslier)
Dar Re Mi [GB] (J. Gosden/J. Fortune)
Spring House (J. Canani/A. Solis)
Vision d'Etat [Fr] (E. Libaud/O. Peslier)
Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (9f; 3yo +; Fillies & Mares)
Probable
Careless Jewel (J. Carroll/R. Landry)
Cocoa Beach [Chi] (S. Suroor/R. Dominguez)
Lethal Heat (B. Abrams/A. Solis)
Life is Sweet (J. Shirreffs/G. Gomez)
Mushka (W. Mott/K. Desormeaux)
Music Note (S. Suroor/R. Maragh)
Proviso [GB] (R. Frankel/R. Maragh)
Teamgeist (K. McPeek/C. Borel)
Possible
Icon Project (M. Wolfson/J. Leparoux)
Rainbow View (J. Gosden/J. Leparoux)
Zenyatta (J. Shirreffs/M. Smith)
Breeders' Cup Mile (8f Turf; 3yo +)
Probable
Court Vision (R. Dutrow/R. Albarado)
Cowboy Cal (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)
Delegator [GB] (S. Suroor/L. Dettori)
Ferneley [Ire] (B. Cecil/R. Bejarano)
Gladitorious (S. Suroor/A. Ajtebi)
Goldikova [Ire] (F. Head/O. Peslier)
Justenuffhumor (K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia)
Karelian (G. Arnold/R. Maragh)
Rendezvous (J. Hollendorfer/J. Rosario)
Mr. Sidney (W. Mott/K. Desormeaux)
Whatsthescript [Ire] (J. Sadler/J. Rosario)
Zacinto [GB] (M. Stoute/R. Moore)
Possible
Diamondrella [GB] (A. Penna/R. Maragh)
Get Serious (J. Forbes/P. Fragoso)
Breeders' Cup Sprint (6f; 3yo +)
Probable
Capt. Candyman Can (I. Wilkes/J. Castellano)
Cost of Freedom (J. Sadler/T. Baze)
Fatal Bullet (R. Baker/E. Da Silva)
Gayego (S. Suroor/G. Gomez)
Zensational (B. Baffert/V. Espinoza)
Possible
Crown of Thorns (R. Mandella/V. Espinoza)
Dancing in Silks (C. Gaines/J. Rosario)
Kodiak Kowboy (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan)
Munnings (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)
Pyro (S. Suroor/J. Velazquez)
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (10f Turf; 3yo +; Fillies & Mares)
Probable
Forever Together (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux)
Magical Fantasy (P. Gallagher/A. Solis)
Midday [GB] (H. Cecil/T. Queally)
Pure Clan (R. Holthus/J. Leparoux)
Visit [GB] (R. Frankel/G. Gomez)
Possible
Dar Re Mi [GB] (J. Gosden/J. Fortune)
Diamondrella [GB] (A. Penna/R. Maragh)
Dynaforce (W. Mott/K. Desormeaux)
Rutherienne (C. Clement/A. Garcia)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile (8.5f; 2yo)
Probable
Aikenite (T. Pletcher/A. Garcia)
Alfred Nobel [Ire] (A. O'Brien/J. Murtagh)
Beethoven [Ire] (A. O'Brien/R. Moore)
Bench the Judge (D. O'Neill/R. Santiago)
D'Funnybone (R. Dutrow/E. Prado)
Dave in Dixie (J. Sadler/J. Rosario)
Fist of Rage (K. McPeek/-)
Lookin at Lucky (B. Baffert/G. Gomez)
Noble's Promise (K. McPeek/W. Martinez)
Pulsion (P. Biancone/M. Smith)
Possible
Buzzword [GB] (S. Suroor/A. Ajtebi)
Gallant Gent (C. Lewis/M. Pedroza)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (8.5f; 2yo; Fillies)
Probable
Always a Princess (B. Baffert/G. Gomez)
Amen Hallelujah (R. Dutrow/R. Dominguez)
Beautician (K. McPeek/K. Desormeaux)
Biofuel (R. Baker/E. Da Silva)
Blind Luck (J. Hollendorfer/T. Baze)
Connie and Mack (K. McPeek/R. Albarado)
Devil May Care (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)
Negligee (J. Terranova/R. Maragh)
She Be Wild (W. Catalano/G. Gomez)
Possible
Bay to Bay (B. Lynch/D. Clark)
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (8.3f; 3yo +)
Probable
Cherokee Artist (H. Motion/J. Rose)
Chocolate Candy (J. Hollendorfer/V. Espinoza)
Crown of Thorns (R. Mandella/V. Espinoza)
El Gato Malo (C. Dollase/D. Flores)
Famous Name [GB] (D. Weld/P. Smullen)
Furthest Land (M. Maker/G. Gomez)
Midshipman (S. Suroor/R. Migliore)
Monzante (M. Mitchell/J. Rosario)
Neko Bay (J. Shirreffs/M. Smith)
Square Eddie (D. O'Neill/R. Bejarano)
Possible
Ball Four (P. Biancone/J. Talamo)
Girolamo (S. Suroor/A. Garcia)
Informed (D. O'Neill/M. Baze)
Mambo Meister (P. Gleaves/M. Cruz)
Regal Ransom (S. Suroor/R. Migliore)
Teide (D. Condilenios/C. Hoverson)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (8f Turf; 2yo)
Probable
Becky's Kitten (W. Ward/J. Leparoux)
Bridgetown (K. McPeek/R. Landry)
Fantastico Roberto (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)
Interactif (T. Pletcher/K. Desormeaux)
Summer Movie (A. Sherman/-)
Zip Quick (P. Biancone/-)
Possible
Buzzword [GB] (S. Suroor/A. Ajtebi)
Gallant Gent (C. Lewis/M. Pedroza)
Kera's Kitten (M. Maker/J. Leparoux)
William's Kitten (M. Maker/V. Lebron)
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (7f; 3yo +; Fillies & Mares)
Probable
Evita Argentina (J. Sadler/J. Rosario)
Indian Blessing (B. Baffert/J. Velazquez)
Informed Decision (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux)
Sara Louise (S. Suroor/E. Prado)
Seventh Street (S. Suroor/R. Maragh)
SweetHearth (A. De Royer-Dupre/G. Mosse)
Ventura (R. Frankel/G. Gomez)
Possible
Game Face (T. Pletcher/E. Prado)
Breeders' Cup Marathon (14f; 3yo +)
Probable
Black Astor (L. Lewis/J. Talamo)
Father Time [GB] (H. Cecil/J. Spencer)
Nite Light (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)
Rising Moon (R. Dutrow/K. Desormeaux)
Unusual Suspect (B. Abrams/A. Quinonez)
Possible
Bold Chieftain (W. Morey/R. Baze)
Cloudy's Knight (J. Sheppard/R. Homeister)
Mastery [GB] (S. Suroor/T. Durcan)
Muhannak [Ire] (R. Beckett/P. Smullen)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (8f Turf; 2yo; Fillies)
Probable
House of Grace (K. McPeek/M. Luzzi)
Smart Seattle (H. Motion/J. Rose)
Possible
Bay to Bay (B. Lynch/D. Clark)
Full Mandate [Ire] (R. Hannon/M. Kinane)
Hibaayeb [GB] (C. Brittain/N. Callan)
Lisa's Kitten (M. Maker/J. Leparoux)
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (6.5f Turf; 3yo +)
Probable
California Flag (B. Koriner/J. Talamo)
Cannonball (W. Ward/E. Trujillo)
Desert Code (D. Hofmans/R. Migliore)
Fleeting Spirit [Ire] (J. Noseda/T. Queally)
Get Funky (J. Sadler/J. Valdivia)
Gotta Have Her (J. Sahadi/T. Baze)
Lethal Heat (B. Abrams/A. Solis)
Noble Court (J. Sadler/J. Rosario)
Silver Timber (C. Brown/J. Leparoux)
Possible
Chamberlain Bridge (B. Calhoun/J. Theriot)
Dancing in Silks (C. Gaines/J. Rosario)
Diamondrella [GB] (A. Penna/R. Maragh)
Mr. Nightlinger (B. Calhoun/J. Theriot)
Storm Treasure (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan)
Total Gallery [Ire] (J. Moore/J. Murtagh)
Yankee Injunuity (J. McMullen/E. Baird)
Breeders Cup Classic (10f; 3yo +)
Probable
Awesome Gem (C. Dollase/A. Solis)
Colonel John (E. Harty/G. Gomez)
Einstein [Brz] (H. Pitts-Blasi/J. Leparoux)
Gio Ponti (C. Clement/R. Dominguez)
Macho Again (D. Stewart/R. Albarado)
Mastercraftsman [Ire] (A. O'Brien/J. Murtagh)
Mine That Bird (B. Woolley Jr./C. Borel)
Quality Road (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)
Richard's Kid (B. Baffert/V. Espinoza)
Rip Van Winkle [Ire] (A. O'Brien/J. Murtagh)
Summer Bird (T. Ice/K. Desormeaux)
Possible
Bullsbay (H. Motion/J. Rose)
Girolamo (S. Suroor/A. Garcia)
Regal Ransom (S. Suroor/R. Migliore)
Twice Over [GB] (H. Cecil/T. Queally)
Zenyatta (J. Shirreffs/M. Smith)
Breeders Cup Turf (12f Turf; 3yo +)
Probable
Conduit [Ire] (M. Stoute/R. Moore)
Presious Passion (M. Hartmann/E. Trujillo)
Red Rocks [Ire] (B. Meehan/J. Castellano)
Spanish Moon (M. Stoute/R. Moore)
Possible
Ask [GB] (M. Soute/O. Peslier)
Dar Re Mi [GB] (J. Gosden/J. Fortune)
Spring House (J. Canani/A. Solis)
Vision d'Etat [Fr] (E. Libaud/O. Peslier)
Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (9f; 3yo +; Fillies & Mares)
Probable
Careless Jewel (J. Carroll/R. Landry)
Cocoa Beach [Chi] (S. Suroor/R. Dominguez)
Lethal Heat (B. Abrams/A. Solis)
Life is Sweet (J. Shirreffs/G. Gomez)
Mushka (W. Mott/K. Desormeaux)
Music Note (S. Suroor/R. Maragh)
Proviso [GB] (R. Frankel/R. Maragh)
Teamgeist (K. McPeek/C. Borel)
Possible
Icon Project (M. Wolfson/J. Leparoux)
Rainbow View (J. Gosden/J. Leparoux)
Zenyatta (J. Shirreffs/M. Smith)
Breeders' Cup Mile (8f Turf; 3yo +)
Probable
Court Vision (R. Dutrow/R. Albarado)
Cowboy Cal (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)
Delegator [GB] (S. Suroor/L. Dettori)
Ferneley [Ire] (B. Cecil/R. Bejarano)
Gladitorious (S. Suroor/A. Ajtebi)
Goldikova [Ire] (F. Head/O. Peslier)
Justenuffhumor (K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia)
Karelian (G. Arnold/R. Maragh)
Rendezvous (J. Hollendorfer/J. Rosario)
Mr. Sidney (W. Mott/K. Desormeaux)
Whatsthescript [Ire] (J. Sadler/J. Rosario)
Zacinto [GB] (M. Stoute/R. Moore)
Possible
Diamondrella [GB] (A. Penna/R. Maragh)
Get Serious (J. Forbes/P. Fragoso)
Breeders' Cup Sprint (6f; 3yo +)
Probable
Capt. Candyman Can (I. Wilkes/J. Castellano)
Cost of Freedom (J. Sadler/T. Baze)
Fatal Bullet (R. Baker/E. Da Silva)
Gayego (S. Suroor/G. Gomez)
Zensational (B. Baffert/V. Espinoza)
Possible
Crown of Thorns (R. Mandella/V. Espinoza)
Dancing in Silks (C. Gaines/J. Rosario)
Kodiak Kowboy (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan)
Munnings (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)
Pyro (S. Suroor/J. Velazquez)
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (10f Turf; 3yo +; Fillies & Mares)
Probable
Forever Together (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux)
Magical Fantasy (P. Gallagher/A. Solis)
Midday [GB] (H. Cecil/T. Queally)
Pure Clan (R. Holthus/J. Leparoux)
Visit [GB] (R. Frankel/G. Gomez)
Possible
Dar Re Mi [GB] (J. Gosden/J. Fortune)
Diamondrella [GB] (A. Penna/R. Maragh)
Dynaforce (W. Mott/K. Desormeaux)
Rutherienne (C. Clement/A. Garcia)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile (8.5f; 2yo)
Probable
Aikenite (T. Pletcher/A. Garcia)
Alfred Nobel [Ire] (A. O'Brien/J. Murtagh)
Beethoven [Ire] (A. O'Brien/R. Moore)
Bench the Judge (D. O'Neill/R. Santiago)
D'Funnybone (R. Dutrow/E. Prado)
Dave in Dixie (J. Sadler/J. Rosario)
Fist of Rage (K. McPeek/-)
Lookin at Lucky (B. Baffert/G. Gomez)
Noble's Promise (K. McPeek/W. Martinez)
Pulsion (P. Biancone/M. Smith)
Possible
Buzzword [GB] (S. Suroor/A. Ajtebi)
Gallant Gent (C. Lewis/M. Pedroza)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (8.5f; 2yo; Fillies)
Probable
Always a Princess (B. Baffert/G. Gomez)
Amen Hallelujah (R. Dutrow/R. Dominguez)
Beautician (K. McPeek/K. Desormeaux)
Biofuel (R. Baker/E. Da Silva)
Blind Luck (J. Hollendorfer/T. Baze)
Connie and Mack (K. McPeek/R. Albarado)
Devil May Care (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)
Negligee (J. Terranova/R. Maragh)
She Be Wild (W. Catalano/G. Gomez)
Possible
Bay to Bay (B. Lynch/D. Clark)
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (8.3f; 3yo +)
Probable
Cherokee Artist (H. Motion/J. Rose)
Chocolate Candy (J. Hollendorfer/V. Espinoza)
Crown of Thorns (R. Mandella/V. Espinoza)
El Gato Malo (C. Dollase/D. Flores)
Famous Name [GB] (D. Weld/P. Smullen)
Furthest Land (M. Maker/G. Gomez)
Midshipman (S. Suroor/R. Migliore)
Monzante (M. Mitchell/J. Rosario)
Neko Bay (J. Shirreffs/M. Smith)
Square Eddie (D. O'Neill/R. Bejarano)
Possible
Ball Four (P. Biancone/J. Talamo)
Girolamo (S. Suroor/A. Garcia)
Informed (D. O'Neill/M. Baze)
Mambo Meister (P. Gleaves/M. Cruz)
Regal Ransom (S. Suroor/R. Migliore)
Teide (D. Condilenios/C. Hoverson)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (8f Turf; 2yo)
Probable
Becky's Kitten (W. Ward/J. Leparoux)
Bridgetown (K. McPeek/R. Landry)
Fantastico Roberto (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)
Interactif (T. Pletcher/K. Desormeaux)
Summer Movie (A. Sherman/-)
Zip Quick (P. Biancone/-)
Possible
Buzzword [GB] (S. Suroor/A. Ajtebi)
Gallant Gent (C. Lewis/M. Pedroza)
Kera's Kitten (M. Maker/J. Leparoux)
William's Kitten (M. Maker/V. Lebron)
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (7f; 3yo +; Fillies & Mares)
Probable
Evita Argentina (J. Sadler/J. Rosario)
Indian Blessing (B. Baffert/J. Velazquez)
Informed Decision (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux)
Sara Louise (S. Suroor/E. Prado)
Seventh Street (S. Suroor/R. Maragh)
SweetHearth (A. De Royer-Dupre/G. Mosse)
Ventura (R. Frankel/G. Gomez)
Possible
Game Face (T. Pletcher/E. Prado)
Breeders' Cup Marathon (14f; 3yo +)
Probable
Black Astor (L. Lewis/J. Talamo)
Father Time [GB] (H. Cecil/J. Spencer)
Nite Light (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)
Rising Moon (R. Dutrow/K. Desormeaux)
Unusual Suspect (B. Abrams/A. Quinonez)
Possible
Bold Chieftain (W. Morey/R. Baze)
Cloudy's Knight (J. Sheppard/R. Homeister)
Mastery [GB] (S. Suroor/T. Durcan)
Muhannak [Ire] (R. Beckett/P. Smullen)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (8f Turf; 2yo; Fillies)
Probable
House of Grace (K. McPeek/M. Luzzi)
Smart Seattle (H. Motion/J. Rose)
Possible
Bay to Bay (B. Lynch/D. Clark)
Full Mandate [Ire] (R. Hannon/M. Kinane)
Hibaayeb [GB] (C. Brittain/N. Callan)
Lisa's Kitten (M. Maker/J. Leparoux)
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (6.5f Turf; 3yo +)
Probable
California Flag (B. Koriner/J. Talamo)
Cannonball (W. Ward/E. Trujillo)
Desert Code (D. Hofmans/R. Migliore)
Fleeting Spirit [Ire] (J. Noseda/T. Queally)
Get Funky (J. Sadler/J. Valdivia)
Gotta Have Her (J. Sahadi/T. Baze)
Lethal Heat (B. Abrams/A. Solis)
Noble Court (J. Sadler/J. Rosario)
Silver Timber (C. Brown/J. Leparoux)
Possible
Chamberlain Bridge (B. Calhoun/J. Theriot)
Dancing in Silks (C. Gaines/J. Rosario)
Diamondrella [GB] (A. Penna/R. Maragh)
Mr. Nightlinger (B. Calhoun/J. Theriot)
Storm Treasure (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan)
Total Gallery [Ire] (J. Moore/J. Murtagh)
Yankee Injunuity (J. McMullen/E. Baird)
Friday, October 2, 2009
NYRA's Super Saturday
Fans are understandably somewhat frustrated at some of the field sizes that NYRA attracted for its "Super Saturday" card, but the blame settles far from the hard-working folks in New York. Can you begin to imagine that frustration that ensued when Andrew Rosen broke the news to them that Icon Project, quite possibly the best Distaffer in the East, was going to pass on the Beldame (Gr I) for the opportunity to particpate in the Spinster (Gr I) at Keeneland, instead? Entries for this race were taken on October 1, and until the day prior, Icon Project was considered to be a lock to run at Belmont. I can't blame other owners/trainers for not wanting to run their Distaff contenders against the powerful duo of Icon Project and Music Note, and once Icon Project opted out, it was really far too late to reroute horses to the Belmont.
I've heard some complaints about the field size as well, but again I sympathize with the folks at NYRA on that one. If I was forced to rank the Top 5 North American-based sprinters right now, I'd name for you Zensational, Fabulous Strike, Munnings, Fatal Bullet, and Kodiak Kowboy, in no particular order. So I guess I can just see that it's pretty tough to attract horses to run against 3 of the top 5.
But anyway, enough of that, let's move on to the handicapping -
Beldame
1. Captain's Lover (SaF) [2/1] - First half of the Team Valor entry is a Gr I winner in her native South Africa and was a Gr III winner in France before coming to the States. Primarily a turf specialist, her 1-for-1 record on the dirt comes with a bold asterisk - she won the 200k Matchmaker at Monmouth back on Haskell Day when that race came off-the-turf and she outclassed a field of fellow turf specialists. Beyer came back quite pedestrian, only a 76, and the final time was more than 4 seconds slower than it took Rachel Alexandra to take care of things in the Haskell. Retains the services of Velazquez, but she'd be a surprise.
1a. Unbridled Belle [2/1] - Six year old mare seems to move backward each time she sets foot on the track, and it's becoming almost difficult to watch. Beat Indian Vale and Ginger Punch in this race back in 2007, but we've slowly watched her form unravel since. Added a Gr III score to her credit back in June after she failed to get in foal to A.P. Indy, but was last seen bringing up the rear in the Personal Ensign (Gr I), beaten 42-lengths by Icon Project. I feel as if she's achieved that rare status where just about everyone not named Suroor and Mohammed would be thrilled to see her win (joining horses like Better Talk Now, Perfect Drift, and The Tin Man at that level), but it's just not going to happen.
2. Music Note [2/5] - Spent the last 10 minutes trying to build a case against her, and I just can't see it. 4-for-6 at Belmont, 2-for-3 at the distance, 2-for-3 over off going, and keep in mind that she fired off a 107 Beyer last out indicating that she's back. Problem for her foes here is that the 'B game' of this 4-time Grade I winner probably gets the job done by open lengths. Won the Gr I Gazelle last year at this distance over a wet track by 8 1/2-lengths. Be thankful if you can get 2/5, but she has 1/9 written all over her, and for good reason.
3. Copper State [8/1] - Sneaky Asmussen runner is twice Grade I placed and I'd have never guessed that before seeing her past performances. Granted those races came last summer, but the back class is certainly here. Fell out of form last fall and it's taken Asmussen a while to get her back to her peak level, but I think she's sitting on a strong effort. Took a deep strong in class last out to win the Central Iowa Stakes at Prairie Meadows, but was rewarded with a 92 Beyer and I like the confidence boost, being that was her first win since late 2007. Doesn't seem to be near the class of Music Note, but looks to be runner-up material.
4. With Flying Colors [20/1] - Last minute entrant from the Pletcher barn is really up against it in this spot. Daughter of A.P. Indy is just 2-for-10 lifetime and made her graded debut last time when 6th in the Personal Ensign (Gr I) at 19/1. Career high Beyer is only 80, and while she has won over an off-track at Belmont, I can't see her getting the pace to run at here.
***
1. Music Note
2. Copper State
3. Captain's Lover
***
Vosburgh
1. Go Go Shoot [6/1] - Bruce Levine-trained son of Songandaprayer has been a bit two-faced in 2009. Gives the impression that he's really ready to break out and make a name for himself in this division, but other times looks more suited for ungraded stakes at Delaware and Monmouth. Blazed to 109 BSF's at Saratoga and Delaware earlier this year when he ran 2nd to Fabulous Strike in the Vanderbilt (Gr II) and won the Longfellow Stakes by 9 1/2-length, but regressed off the latter effort to be all out to win the Mr Prospector at Monmouth by only 1/2-length. Has extremely quick gate speed, but it's tough to ask for him to run better than he did in the Vanderbilt when he still wasn't good enough to knock off Fabulous Strike.
2. Peace Chant [15/1] - Probably the odd-man out in this group, he lacks the credentials of his competitors and could do no better than 10th last out in the Forego (Gr I) at Saratoga.
3. Munnings [7/2] - Intriguing entrant from the Pletcher barn in that the you can make a case for quite a few of his races in 2009 to be toss-outs. Throwing out his Haskell due to the distance and probably drawing a line through his King's Bishop because I hate the trip he got. Not at all convinced this son of Speightstown likes a wet track, but I think he gets the perfect set-up in here if Go Go Shoot and Fabulous Strike decide to go at it early. He's been great at Belmont and some consider him a 7f race, but I don't think that's fair as he hasn't raced at 6f but once in his career, and it resulted in a maiden win. At this point I'm completely torn on him - on a fast track he'd be my pick, but not as certain if it comes up sloppy.
4. Kodiak Kowboy [3/1] - Returns to the care of Asmussen as Larry Jones slowly weans his stable, but doubt the trainer change has a huge effect on his form. While I really consider him to be more of a 7f/8f type, he's never missed the board going 6 furlongs (5 tries) and while he's the type of horse that is more consistent than flashy, he does show his share of large Beyer figures (108, 106 x3, 104, 102 x2). He closed well to finish 3rd in this race last year, beaten just 3/4-length by Black Seventeen and Fabulous Strike, and enters off a solid 2nd place finish to Pyro in the Forego (Gr I). Nearly certain he'll be coming from far back, but consider he's 0-for-4 on a wet track, however he's run a 106 Beyer on a wet track, so I wouldn't be too quick to say he hates it. Problem I see is that there are about 3 horses in this race capable of running a 110+ Beyer and he's stuck in the 104-106 range.
5. Fabulous Strike [Even] - One of the fastest horses of his generation, Fabulous Strike has won 14-of-23 races in his lifetime, including 11-or-16 at this distance and 4-of-6 at Belmont. Toss out his 5th place finish over the synthetic in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (Gr I) last year, and he's hit the exacta in 9 straight races. Race record is spattered with gaudy Beyer figures - 119, 118, 115, 114, 113, 112, and 111 - and even at 6, he's still showing capable of putting up a solid number. Earned a 112 last time when he won the Gr II Vanderbilt, and a 111 prior to that when he took the Gr II True North. Having a hard time finding a scenario that keeps him out of the exacta.
***
1. Kodiak Kowboy
2. Fabulous Strike
3. Munnings
***
Flower Bowl
1. Carribean Sunset (Ire) [5/2] - Entry comes in a bit lower on the morning-line that I'd have hoped, but me thinks you're getting a nice 1-2 punch with this duo. European Group III winner has yet to get things done at the graded level in the States, but she gives the impression that she'll get things done anytime now. Nearly knocked off defending champ Forever Together two back in the Diana (Gr I), and just missed by a length last out in the Palomar 'Cap (Gr II) at DelMar. Lone win Stateside came in a 200k ungraded stakes at Philly Park going 8.5f. Beyers aren't bad, but distance is an unknown, but it's tough to turn your back on Dominguez in here.
1a. Beauty O' Gwaun (Ire) [5/2] - 3yo daughter of Rainbow Quest looked to be on the fast track to something special earlier this year when she took the Group III Blue Wind Stakes in Ireland at second asking, but a 10th place finish in the Irish Oaks (Gr I) and a 3rd in the Give Thanks Stakes (Gr III) have curtailed her improvement. Clement does well with those he gets for the first time from Europe, and she adds blinkers and Lasix, but needed to show me something more before backing her in this spot. With Dominguez named on both, I'm thinking that Carribean Sunset might be their top pick to run, and Beauty O'Gwaun their backup if it comes up soft.
2. Leamington [10/1] - Probable frontrunner made her stakes debut a winning one last out when she took the restricted Voodoo Dancer at Saratoga by 1 1/4-lengths for Graham Motion. Earned a 96 Beyer for that effort, which was her second straight victory, and gives her connections the opportunity to try a race like this. Daughter of Pleasant Tap is out of a Storm Cat mare, so I like her to get the distance, but just not sure she wants the soft turf. Failed miserably on the turf over in Europe and was limited to running over the polytrack there, and has yet to meet a wet turf course here. If it comes up firm, she could be an outside consideration, but I toss her if it rains, as expected to.
3. Pure Clan [3/1] - Alright, not taking my chance with her this time. Thought she was bound for improvement as a 4yo, but hasn't really stepped up her game at all from her 3yo form. Boasts just a Gr III score this year, and finished 3rd last time as the 3/2 fave in the Beverly D (Gr I) at Arlington. Does her running from way back, and isn't a half bad running over this distance, but having difficulty backing a filly that's just 1 for her last 5. She'll get herself involved late - that's nearly certain - but just not sure she has it in her to get this thing done. Career high turf Beyer of 96 in 9 tries probably isn't good enough.
4. Dynaforce [7/2] - Most auspicious morning-line 3rd choice as she won this race last year by 4-lengths, won the Gr I Beverly D last out, and is 3-2-1-0 over wet turf courses in the United States. It was a long road back to top form for this 6yo daughter of Dynaformer - she lost two straight to start the year before her Bev D score, and still doesn't appear to be at the level she was last year. Expecting her to go off favored in this spot, but I'm hesitant to single her in any multi-race wager.
5. Criticism (GB) [8/1] - Speedy Darley-bred daughter of Machiavellian won 4-of-5 at one point in the States, but has lost two straight and quickly become forgotten in this division. Won two Gr II races and two Gr III's between the end of last year and the beginning of 2009 for Albertrani, but failed in her lone Gr I try, which came last out in the Diana at Saratoga. Doesn't seem to fancy a wet turf course, and thinking she's in over her head in this spot.
6. Queen of Hearts [15/1] - Longest shot on the board for a reason, her graded debut last out in the Glens Falls (Gr III) resulted in a 3rd place finish behind the lightly regarded Mushka, and while beaten just 1 1/4-lengths, there's not a ton to love. Daughter of Thunder Gulch didn't seem to fancy a soft track last year, but she's a different filly these days, even if just slightly. Add a low-percentage jockey in Jose Espinoza, and it's hard to make a case for her.
7. Moneycantbuymelove (Ire) [4/1] - 3yo daughter of Pivotal ships in from Great Britain after a strong performance in the Gr I Nassau at Goodwood, and that makes her my choice in here. A listed stakes winner at the distance, she came in 3rd behind potential Breeders' Cup runners Midday and Rainbow View in the Nassau, and earned a Racing Post speed rating of 115 for that effort. Regular rider Jamie Spencer makes the trip over to ride, and she adds Lasix for the first time in her career. Also have to give her credit for passing the vast majority of her 18 rivals two back in a stakes at Ascot as she rallied from far back to take that one by 2-lengths.
***
1. Moneycantbuymelove (Ire)
2. Pure Clan
3. Dynaforce
***
Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational
1. Gio Ponti [6/5] - Son of Tale of the Cat has gone from a simple Gr II winner in 2008 to one of the world's top performers in 2009. A winner of four straight Grade I races, Gio Ponti is without question, the best turf horse in the United States. He handled the dominant mare Ventura in the Frank Kilroe (Gr I), he handled a 12 horse field in the Manhattan (Gr I), he dominated going 11f in the Man O War (Gr I), and he took on some solid Europeans when winning the Arlington Million (Gr I). 12 furlongs is an unknown, but this is a horse that earned a 105 Beyer going 11f and given his tactical speed and turn of foot, I don't see it being a problem. Arguably his top two performances of the year came over wet ground, and he's a most deserving favorite. Play against him at your own peril.
1a. Winchester [6/5] - A lot of work has gone into Winchester, and it's almost hard to believe this is the same horse that won the Secretariat Stakes (Gr I) last year for Dermot Weld, and earned a 106 Beyer for that race. He's lost 4 straight races, but finally showed a bit of interest last out when 2nd to Grand Couturier in the Bowling Green (Gr II). I still think he's got room for improvement, but not sure if it'll come in this race. He's only entered in the instance if the turf comes up too bad, and will likely scratch on behalf of his stablemate.
2. Interpatation [30/1] - Discussing the chances of this 7yo gelding is getting a bit monotonous, as he really has no chance. Picked up the pieces to nab 2nd in this race last year, but has missed the board in 6 tries since and although he adds Robby Albarado, he'd be nothing short of a shock.
3. Al Khali [12/1] - Wasn't shocked to see him get the job done last out against 3yos in the Gr III Saranac at Saratoga, and it's very obvious he's found a home on the turf under Bill Mott's care. Sputtered a bit trying to find his way with Pletcher, but now that Mott is pushing the buttons, he seems to be headed in the right direction. This is an extremely tough task for the 3yo son of Medaglia d'Oro, and expecting him to be better next year than he is now. Wouldn't mind getting a play on him for the 2010 future bet of this race, but not very enticing this year.
4. Telling [10/1] - Shocked the Saratoga faithful at 33/1 when he scored the upset over Better Talk Now and Brass Hat in the Gr I Sword Dancer on August 15, and trainer Steve Hobby is expecting more of the same from this son of A.P. Indy on Saturday. Knows this horse loves the 12f distance and has handled a wet turf going before. Can't fault the bettors for looking elsewhere, he's not exactly a household name, but at 10/1 he looks like a solid value play.
5. Musketier (Ger) [12/1] - Connections of this frontrunner will be begging Mother Nature to unleash her wrath in order to cause Presious Passion to scratch and give this one a pretty easy lead. This Roger Attfield trainee has turned into a different horse ever since they started putting him on the lead, and even scored a Gr III score at this distance three back at Woodbine in the Singspiel on June 21. Held off all but Gio Ponti two back in the Gr I Man O War, but failed miserably last out going this distance in the Gr I Sword Dancer. Having a tough time backing him off that effort.
6. Ready's Echo [12/1] - Placement in here indicates that Pletcher still isn't just quite sure what to do with this one. This son of More Than Ready is a bit of a jack-of-all-trades, having run 3rd in the 2008 Belmont Stakes (Gr I), 3rd in the 2009 Forego (Gr I), 3rd in the 2008 Jamaica 'Cap (Gr II) on the turf, and is a two-time winner on synthetic surfaces. This will be his first time trying 12f, which seems a bit further than he wants to go, and even with Velazquez up, he's way up against it in this spot.
7. Presious Passion [6/1] - Incredibly speedy son of Royal Anthem has won 3 graded stakes in 2009, including the United Nations (Gr I) two back at Monmouth. Famously known for his ability to open up on the field by open lengths early, but also has the fortitude to hold them off late. Forecast doesn't seem to agree with this one, however, and the trainer indicates that he'll scratch if the course comes up wet.
8. Grand Couturier (GB) [5/2] - Took trainer Rob Ribaudo a long time to get this one back into top form, in fact he ran 5th in 3 straight to start his 2009 campaign, but got the job done last out in the Gr II Bowling Green over this course on September 13. This is a horse that absolutely loves an off going, having won 3 of his last 4 over turf courses listed less than firm. Won this race last year by 10 1/4-lengths, earning a 112 Beyer figure, and has won 5-of-10 going the distance. Gio Ponti seems formidable, but the pieces may be in order for this one to run huge.
***
1. Gio Ponti
2. Telling
3. Grand Couturier (GB)
***
Jockey Club Gold Cup
1. Sette E Mezzo [12/1] - Son of Dynaformer has done well to carve a niche for himself on the turf, earning a Gr II placing last out, but wheels back onto the dirt for the first time since his debut at Gulfstream Park in March 2008 (he ran 3rd that day, beaten nearly 7 lengths). This one gets a big boost in picking up Ramon Dominguez, but having a tough time seeing him as anything but illogical in this spot. Has never broken the 100 Beyer plateau and will need to run the race of his life to even matter.
2. Macho Again [7/2] - The thinking of this handicapper is that if you can get this horse at this price, run to the windows. Once a perfect picture of inconsistency, Macho Again has put together three straight top performances at this level, and gives the indication that Dallas Stewart has worked him past his Jekyll and Hyde moments. Nearly ran down Rachel Alexandra in the Gr I Woodward last out, and prior to that just missed to Bullsbay in the Gr I Whitney. His 2009 resume includes scores in the Gr I Stephen Foster and the Gr II New Orleans 'Cap, and shows Beyers of 109, 105, and 100 in his last 3. Robby Albarado has built a strong rapport with this one, and Macho Again is 2-for-2 on wet tracks. Hasn't tried this distance since last year's Travers, but gives every indication that 10f is very doable. The pick.
3. Summer Bird [2/1] - Getting the feeling that he's becoming a bit overrated, and his 2/1 favoritism here seems to evidence that. Hard to deny his credentials, but still have some concerns with him. Has run 7 times since March 1 and the competition keeps getting tougher and tougher. Don't want to come off as too pessimistic, but have to wonder how much he's got left in the tank. If he doesn't falter here, he'll be quickly ascending to Curlin-level, which is probably tougher than it appears to do. Doesn't mind a sloppy track and retains Desormeaux, but trying older for the first time is no cakewalk. He'll be tested in this spot more than he's ever tested before, and I'm looking elsewhere for my top choice.
4. Tizway [15/1] - H. James Bond trained son of Tiznow could find himself alone on a pretty easy lead, but either way, he'll have some very talented horses breathing down his neck. Has never gone this far, and ran 4th in the Whitney (Gr I) in his lone graded try. Has been regularly drilling 6f over the Saratoga training track, and his performance will depend on how much Maragh can slow things down early. Tough to be overly optimistic, but the barn is pretty hot and the trainer/jockey combo fire at a huge clip. Wouldn't hurt to have him in your exotics.
5. Asiatic Boy (Arg) [8/1] - Solid son of Argentinian sire Not for Sale adds blinkers after a tough 4th place finish to Rachel Alexandra in the Gr I Woodward at Saratoga. Didn't exactly have the easiest trip that day, and his back class shows a pair of runner-up performances in graded stakes in this country - the Gr I Stephen Foster and the Gr II Suburban. Also won the Gr II Maktoum Challenge Round III earlier this year. Has hit the exacta in 3-of-4 tries going this distance, but I'm having a hard time loving this one in this spot.
6. Dry Martini [8/1] - Connections are incredibly high on this son of Slew Gin Fizz, even with his 5th place finish in the Gr I Whitney last out in mind. Retains the services of Prado, but not sure that's a great thing at the moment - Edgar is just 2-for-51 (4%) at the current Belmont meet, and is winning with just 12% on the year. This one won the Suburban (Gr II) two back, but I guess I'm missing the smoking gun that the connections are leaning on.
7. Quality Road [5/2] - Speedy son of Elusive Quality ran an absolute clunker last out in the Travers (Gr I) yet still managed 3rd in a race that was probably way too much, way too soon for him. Even tough sons of Elusive Quality have scored going 10f, I still don't think it's false to say that might not be their ideal distance. It's actually quite farfetched to say that since Smarty Jones and Raven's Pass were able to run a distance, that any other son of Elusive Quality should be able to do the same. Tough to deny his raw speed, but leaning toward 10f being a bit much for him. Either way, he should get a better trip in here than he did in the Travers and is still extremely dangerous.
***
1. Macho Again
2. Asiatic Boy
3. Summer Bird
I've heard some complaints about the field size as well, but again I sympathize with the folks at NYRA on that one. If I was forced to rank the Top 5 North American-based sprinters right now, I'd name for you Zensational, Fabulous Strike, Munnings, Fatal Bullet, and Kodiak Kowboy, in no particular order. So I guess I can just see that it's pretty tough to attract horses to run against 3 of the top 5.
But anyway, enough of that, let's move on to the handicapping -
Beldame
1. Captain's Lover (SaF) [2/1] - First half of the Team Valor entry is a Gr I winner in her native South Africa and was a Gr III winner in France before coming to the States. Primarily a turf specialist, her 1-for-1 record on the dirt comes with a bold asterisk - she won the 200k Matchmaker at Monmouth back on Haskell Day when that race came off-the-turf and she outclassed a field of fellow turf specialists. Beyer came back quite pedestrian, only a 76, and the final time was more than 4 seconds slower than it took Rachel Alexandra to take care of things in the Haskell. Retains the services of Velazquez, but she'd be a surprise.
1a. Unbridled Belle [2/1] - Six year old mare seems to move backward each time she sets foot on the track, and it's becoming almost difficult to watch. Beat Indian Vale and Ginger Punch in this race back in 2007, but we've slowly watched her form unravel since. Added a Gr III score to her credit back in June after she failed to get in foal to A.P. Indy, but was last seen bringing up the rear in the Personal Ensign (Gr I), beaten 42-lengths by Icon Project. I feel as if she's achieved that rare status where just about everyone not named Suroor and Mohammed would be thrilled to see her win (joining horses like Better Talk Now, Perfect Drift, and The Tin Man at that level), but it's just not going to happen.
2. Music Note [2/5] - Spent the last 10 minutes trying to build a case against her, and I just can't see it. 4-for-6 at Belmont, 2-for-3 at the distance, 2-for-3 over off going, and keep in mind that she fired off a 107 Beyer last out indicating that she's back. Problem for her foes here is that the 'B game' of this 4-time Grade I winner probably gets the job done by open lengths. Won the Gr I Gazelle last year at this distance over a wet track by 8 1/2-lengths. Be thankful if you can get 2/5, but she has 1/9 written all over her, and for good reason.
3. Copper State [8/1] - Sneaky Asmussen runner is twice Grade I placed and I'd have never guessed that before seeing her past performances. Granted those races came last summer, but the back class is certainly here. Fell out of form last fall and it's taken Asmussen a while to get her back to her peak level, but I think she's sitting on a strong effort. Took a deep strong in class last out to win the Central Iowa Stakes at Prairie Meadows, but was rewarded with a 92 Beyer and I like the confidence boost, being that was her first win since late 2007. Doesn't seem to be near the class of Music Note, but looks to be runner-up material.
4. With Flying Colors [20/1] - Last minute entrant from the Pletcher barn is really up against it in this spot. Daughter of A.P. Indy is just 2-for-10 lifetime and made her graded debut last time when 6th in the Personal Ensign (Gr I) at 19/1. Career high Beyer is only 80, and while she has won over an off-track at Belmont, I can't see her getting the pace to run at here.
***
1. Music Note
2. Copper State
3. Captain's Lover
***
Vosburgh
1. Go Go Shoot [6/1] - Bruce Levine-trained son of Songandaprayer has been a bit two-faced in 2009. Gives the impression that he's really ready to break out and make a name for himself in this division, but other times looks more suited for ungraded stakes at Delaware and Monmouth. Blazed to 109 BSF's at Saratoga and Delaware earlier this year when he ran 2nd to Fabulous Strike in the Vanderbilt (Gr II) and won the Longfellow Stakes by 9 1/2-length, but regressed off the latter effort to be all out to win the Mr Prospector at Monmouth by only 1/2-length. Has extremely quick gate speed, but it's tough to ask for him to run better than he did in the Vanderbilt when he still wasn't good enough to knock off Fabulous Strike.
2. Peace Chant [15/1] - Probably the odd-man out in this group, he lacks the credentials of his competitors and could do no better than 10th last out in the Forego (Gr I) at Saratoga.
3. Munnings [7/2] - Intriguing entrant from the Pletcher barn in that the you can make a case for quite a few of his races in 2009 to be toss-outs. Throwing out his Haskell due to the distance and probably drawing a line through his King's Bishop because I hate the trip he got. Not at all convinced this son of Speightstown likes a wet track, but I think he gets the perfect set-up in here if Go Go Shoot and Fabulous Strike decide to go at it early. He's been great at Belmont and some consider him a 7f race, but I don't think that's fair as he hasn't raced at 6f but once in his career, and it resulted in a maiden win. At this point I'm completely torn on him - on a fast track he'd be my pick, but not as certain if it comes up sloppy.
4. Kodiak Kowboy [3/1] - Returns to the care of Asmussen as Larry Jones slowly weans his stable, but doubt the trainer change has a huge effect on his form. While I really consider him to be more of a 7f/8f type, he's never missed the board going 6 furlongs (5 tries) and while he's the type of horse that is more consistent than flashy, he does show his share of large Beyer figures (108, 106 x3, 104, 102 x2). He closed well to finish 3rd in this race last year, beaten just 3/4-length by Black Seventeen and Fabulous Strike, and enters off a solid 2nd place finish to Pyro in the Forego (Gr I). Nearly certain he'll be coming from far back, but consider he's 0-for-4 on a wet track, however he's run a 106 Beyer on a wet track, so I wouldn't be too quick to say he hates it. Problem I see is that there are about 3 horses in this race capable of running a 110+ Beyer and he's stuck in the 104-106 range.
5. Fabulous Strike [Even] - One of the fastest horses of his generation, Fabulous Strike has won 14-of-23 races in his lifetime, including 11-or-16 at this distance and 4-of-6 at Belmont. Toss out his 5th place finish over the synthetic in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (Gr I) last year, and he's hit the exacta in 9 straight races. Race record is spattered with gaudy Beyer figures - 119, 118, 115, 114, 113, 112, and 111 - and even at 6, he's still showing capable of putting up a solid number. Earned a 112 last time when he won the Gr II Vanderbilt, and a 111 prior to that when he took the Gr II True North. Having a hard time finding a scenario that keeps him out of the exacta.
***
1. Kodiak Kowboy
2. Fabulous Strike
3. Munnings
***
Flower Bowl
1. Carribean Sunset (Ire) [5/2] - Entry comes in a bit lower on the morning-line that I'd have hoped, but me thinks you're getting a nice 1-2 punch with this duo. European Group III winner has yet to get things done at the graded level in the States, but she gives the impression that she'll get things done anytime now. Nearly knocked off defending champ Forever Together two back in the Diana (Gr I), and just missed by a length last out in the Palomar 'Cap (Gr II) at DelMar. Lone win Stateside came in a 200k ungraded stakes at Philly Park going 8.5f. Beyers aren't bad, but distance is an unknown, but it's tough to turn your back on Dominguez in here.
1a. Beauty O' Gwaun (Ire) [5/2] - 3yo daughter of Rainbow Quest looked to be on the fast track to something special earlier this year when she took the Group III Blue Wind Stakes in Ireland at second asking, but a 10th place finish in the Irish Oaks (Gr I) and a 3rd in the Give Thanks Stakes (Gr III) have curtailed her improvement. Clement does well with those he gets for the first time from Europe, and she adds blinkers and Lasix, but needed to show me something more before backing her in this spot. With Dominguez named on both, I'm thinking that Carribean Sunset might be their top pick to run, and Beauty O'Gwaun their backup if it comes up soft.
2. Leamington [10/1] - Probable frontrunner made her stakes debut a winning one last out when she took the restricted Voodoo Dancer at Saratoga by 1 1/4-lengths for Graham Motion. Earned a 96 Beyer for that effort, which was her second straight victory, and gives her connections the opportunity to try a race like this. Daughter of Pleasant Tap is out of a Storm Cat mare, so I like her to get the distance, but just not sure she wants the soft turf. Failed miserably on the turf over in Europe and was limited to running over the polytrack there, and has yet to meet a wet turf course here. If it comes up firm, she could be an outside consideration, but I toss her if it rains, as expected to.
3. Pure Clan [3/1] - Alright, not taking my chance with her this time. Thought she was bound for improvement as a 4yo, but hasn't really stepped up her game at all from her 3yo form. Boasts just a Gr III score this year, and finished 3rd last time as the 3/2 fave in the Beverly D (Gr I) at Arlington. Does her running from way back, and isn't a half bad running over this distance, but having difficulty backing a filly that's just 1 for her last 5. She'll get herself involved late - that's nearly certain - but just not sure she has it in her to get this thing done. Career high turf Beyer of 96 in 9 tries probably isn't good enough.
4. Dynaforce [7/2] - Most auspicious morning-line 3rd choice as she won this race last year by 4-lengths, won the Gr I Beverly D last out, and is 3-2-1-0 over wet turf courses in the United States. It was a long road back to top form for this 6yo daughter of Dynaformer - she lost two straight to start the year before her Bev D score, and still doesn't appear to be at the level she was last year. Expecting her to go off favored in this spot, but I'm hesitant to single her in any multi-race wager.
5. Criticism (GB) [8/1] - Speedy Darley-bred daughter of Machiavellian won 4-of-5 at one point in the States, but has lost two straight and quickly become forgotten in this division. Won two Gr II races and two Gr III's between the end of last year and the beginning of 2009 for Albertrani, but failed in her lone Gr I try, which came last out in the Diana at Saratoga. Doesn't seem to fancy a wet turf course, and thinking she's in over her head in this spot.
6. Queen of Hearts [15/1] - Longest shot on the board for a reason, her graded debut last out in the Glens Falls (Gr III) resulted in a 3rd place finish behind the lightly regarded Mushka, and while beaten just 1 1/4-lengths, there's not a ton to love. Daughter of Thunder Gulch didn't seem to fancy a soft track last year, but she's a different filly these days, even if just slightly. Add a low-percentage jockey in Jose Espinoza, and it's hard to make a case for her.
7. Moneycantbuymelove (Ire) [4/1] - 3yo daughter of Pivotal ships in from Great Britain after a strong performance in the Gr I Nassau at Goodwood, and that makes her my choice in here. A listed stakes winner at the distance, she came in 3rd behind potential Breeders' Cup runners Midday and Rainbow View in the Nassau, and earned a Racing Post speed rating of 115 for that effort. Regular rider Jamie Spencer makes the trip over to ride, and she adds Lasix for the first time in her career. Also have to give her credit for passing the vast majority of her 18 rivals two back in a stakes at Ascot as she rallied from far back to take that one by 2-lengths.
***
1. Moneycantbuymelove (Ire)
2. Pure Clan
3. Dynaforce
***
Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational
1. Gio Ponti [6/5] - Son of Tale of the Cat has gone from a simple Gr II winner in 2008 to one of the world's top performers in 2009. A winner of four straight Grade I races, Gio Ponti is without question, the best turf horse in the United States. He handled the dominant mare Ventura in the Frank Kilroe (Gr I), he handled a 12 horse field in the Manhattan (Gr I), he dominated going 11f in the Man O War (Gr I), and he took on some solid Europeans when winning the Arlington Million (Gr I). 12 furlongs is an unknown, but this is a horse that earned a 105 Beyer going 11f and given his tactical speed and turn of foot, I don't see it being a problem. Arguably his top two performances of the year came over wet ground, and he's a most deserving favorite. Play against him at your own peril.
1a. Winchester [6/5] - A lot of work has gone into Winchester, and it's almost hard to believe this is the same horse that won the Secretariat Stakes (Gr I) last year for Dermot Weld, and earned a 106 Beyer for that race. He's lost 4 straight races, but finally showed a bit of interest last out when 2nd to Grand Couturier in the Bowling Green (Gr II). I still think he's got room for improvement, but not sure if it'll come in this race. He's only entered in the instance if the turf comes up too bad, and will likely scratch on behalf of his stablemate.
2. Interpatation [30/1] - Discussing the chances of this 7yo gelding is getting a bit monotonous, as he really has no chance. Picked up the pieces to nab 2nd in this race last year, but has missed the board in 6 tries since and although he adds Robby Albarado, he'd be nothing short of a shock.
3. Al Khali [12/1] - Wasn't shocked to see him get the job done last out against 3yos in the Gr III Saranac at Saratoga, and it's very obvious he's found a home on the turf under Bill Mott's care. Sputtered a bit trying to find his way with Pletcher, but now that Mott is pushing the buttons, he seems to be headed in the right direction. This is an extremely tough task for the 3yo son of Medaglia d'Oro, and expecting him to be better next year than he is now. Wouldn't mind getting a play on him for the 2010 future bet of this race, but not very enticing this year.
4. Telling [10/1] - Shocked the Saratoga faithful at 33/1 when he scored the upset over Better Talk Now and Brass Hat in the Gr I Sword Dancer on August 15, and trainer Steve Hobby is expecting more of the same from this son of A.P. Indy on Saturday. Knows this horse loves the 12f distance and has handled a wet turf going before. Can't fault the bettors for looking elsewhere, he's not exactly a household name, but at 10/1 he looks like a solid value play.
5. Musketier (Ger) [12/1] - Connections of this frontrunner will be begging Mother Nature to unleash her wrath in order to cause Presious Passion to scratch and give this one a pretty easy lead. This Roger Attfield trainee has turned into a different horse ever since they started putting him on the lead, and even scored a Gr III score at this distance three back at Woodbine in the Singspiel on June 21. Held off all but Gio Ponti two back in the Gr I Man O War, but failed miserably last out going this distance in the Gr I Sword Dancer. Having a tough time backing him off that effort.
6. Ready's Echo [12/1] - Placement in here indicates that Pletcher still isn't just quite sure what to do with this one. This son of More Than Ready is a bit of a jack-of-all-trades, having run 3rd in the 2008 Belmont Stakes (Gr I), 3rd in the 2009 Forego (Gr I), 3rd in the 2008 Jamaica 'Cap (Gr II) on the turf, and is a two-time winner on synthetic surfaces. This will be his first time trying 12f, which seems a bit further than he wants to go, and even with Velazquez up, he's way up against it in this spot.
7. Presious Passion [6/1] - Incredibly speedy son of Royal Anthem has won 3 graded stakes in 2009, including the United Nations (Gr I) two back at Monmouth. Famously known for his ability to open up on the field by open lengths early, but also has the fortitude to hold them off late. Forecast doesn't seem to agree with this one, however, and the trainer indicates that he'll scratch if the course comes up wet.
8. Grand Couturier (GB) [5/2] - Took trainer Rob Ribaudo a long time to get this one back into top form, in fact he ran 5th in 3 straight to start his 2009 campaign, but got the job done last out in the Gr II Bowling Green over this course on September 13. This is a horse that absolutely loves an off going, having won 3 of his last 4 over turf courses listed less than firm. Won this race last year by 10 1/4-lengths, earning a 112 Beyer figure, and has won 5-of-10 going the distance. Gio Ponti seems formidable, but the pieces may be in order for this one to run huge.
***
1. Gio Ponti
2. Telling
3. Grand Couturier (GB)
***
Jockey Club Gold Cup
1. Sette E Mezzo [12/1] - Son of Dynaformer has done well to carve a niche for himself on the turf, earning a Gr II placing last out, but wheels back onto the dirt for the first time since his debut at Gulfstream Park in March 2008 (he ran 3rd that day, beaten nearly 7 lengths). This one gets a big boost in picking up Ramon Dominguez, but having a tough time seeing him as anything but illogical in this spot. Has never broken the 100 Beyer plateau and will need to run the race of his life to even matter.
2. Macho Again [7/2] - The thinking of this handicapper is that if you can get this horse at this price, run to the windows. Once a perfect picture of inconsistency, Macho Again has put together three straight top performances at this level, and gives the indication that Dallas Stewart has worked him past his Jekyll and Hyde moments. Nearly ran down Rachel Alexandra in the Gr I Woodward last out, and prior to that just missed to Bullsbay in the Gr I Whitney. His 2009 resume includes scores in the Gr I Stephen Foster and the Gr II New Orleans 'Cap, and shows Beyers of 109, 105, and 100 in his last 3. Robby Albarado has built a strong rapport with this one, and Macho Again is 2-for-2 on wet tracks. Hasn't tried this distance since last year's Travers, but gives every indication that 10f is very doable. The pick.
3. Summer Bird [2/1] - Getting the feeling that he's becoming a bit overrated, and his 2/1 favoritism here seems to evidence that. Hard to deny his credentials, but still have some concerns with him. Has run 7 times since March 1 and the competition keeps getting tougher and tougher. Don't want to come off as too pessimistic, but have to wonder how much he's got left in the tank. If he doesn't falter here, he'll be quickly ascending to Curlin-level, which is probably tougher than it appears to do. Doesn't mind a sloppy track and retains Desormeaux, but trying older for the first time is no cakewalk. He'll be tested in this spot more than he's ever tested before, and I'm looking elsewhere for my top choice.
4. Tizway [15/1] - H. James Bond trained son of Tiznow could find himself alone on a pretty easy lead, but either way, he'll have some very talented horses breathing down his neck. Has never gone this far, and ran 4th in the Whitney (Gr I) in his lone graded try. Has been regularly drilling 6f over the Saratoga training track, and his performance will depend on how much Maragh can slow things down early. Tough to be overly optimistic, but the barn is pretty hot and the trainer/jockey combo fire at a huge clip. Wouldn't hurt to have him in your exotics.
5. Asiatic Boy (Arg) [8/1] - Solid son of Argentinian sire Not for Sale adds blinkers after a tough 4th place finish to Rachel Alexandra in the Gr I Woodward at Saratoga. Didn't exactly have the easiest trip that day, and his back class shows a pair of runner-up performances in graded stakes in this country - the Gr I Stephen Foster and the Gr II Suburban. Also won the Gr II Maktoum Challenge Round III earlier this year. Has hit the exacta in 3-of-4 tries going this distance, but I'm having a hard time loving this one in this spot.
6. Dry Martini [8/1] - Connections are incredibly high on this son of Slew Gin Fizz, even with his 5th place finish in the Gr I Whitney last out in mind. Retains the services of Prado, but not sure that's a great thing at the moment - Edgar is just 2-for-51 (4%) at the current Belmont meet, and is winning with just 12% on the year. This one won the Suburban (Gr II) two back, but I guess I'm missing the smoking gun that the connections are leaning on.
7. Quality Road [5/2] - Speedy son of Elusive Quality ran an absolute clunker last out in the Travers (Gr I) yet still managed 3rd in a race that was probably way too much, way too soon for him. Even tough sons of Elusive Quality have scored going 10f, I still don't think it's false to say that might not be their ideal distance. It's actually quite farfetched to say that since Smarty Jones and Raven's Pass were able to run a distance, that any other son of Elusive Quality should be able to do the same. Tough to deny his raw speed, but leaning toward 10f being a bit much for him. Either way, he should get a better trip in here than he did in the Travers and is still extremely dangerous.
***
1. Macho Again
2. Asiatic Boy
3. Summer Bird
Sunday, September 27, 2009
I'll Trade You My Funny Cide for Your Jean Cruguet
Trading cards and sports. An age-old tradition that has captivated the minds and wallets of collectors since the late 1880's, when small images of baseball players were placed in packs of cigarettes to boost sales. Most are probably familiar with these type of cards, most notably the 1909 T-206 Honus Waner. The T-206 Wagner is regarded as the most expensive and well-known trading card of all-time, and authentic versions of this incredibly rare card (only between 50-200 ever distributed to the public) routinely sell at auction for upwards of $750,000. But what you probably didn't know is that cards depicting your favorite horses and jockeys have been around for just as long.
While baseball cards were growing in popularity in the United States, cards commemorating top riders and owners were taking off across the Atlantic in Great Britain. This set, produced in 1906 by Ogdens, feature a relatively inexpensive market value - £2.70 (approx. $4.80US) a piece - and can generally be found on eBay and other popular collectible/auction websites. A subsequent set, produced in 1907 by the same company, was the first to portray thoroughbred legends, and included Europe's great horses from the turn-of-the-century including Cicero, Galopin, Diamond Jubilee, and Pretty Polly, amongst others. Similar cards were produced in Australia around the same time. Over the next few decades, Odgens produced similar cards in Europe, 25 and 50 card sets showcasing the winners of certain races and 'prominent racehorses of the present day.' An excellent 'Guide' (complete with pictures) to racing trading cards (1888-1933) has been created by eBay user creamofcards and can be found here.
As the popularity of cigarette-type cards dwindled, as did the number of horse racing-related cards. Several small sets of cards were produced over the next couple of decades, with nothing really achieving much collectability in the market.
Sportscaster, a mail-order-only sports card company produced a 48-card set of horse racing cards that encompassed all facets of horse racing, from racetracks to jockeys to famous horses. The full 48 card checklist and pictures of each card can be found here. The cards, produced from 1977-1979 feature thoroughbred staples such as Secretariat, Churchill Downs, Willie Shoemaker, the All-American Futurity, the Hambleton, and the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. These cards were part of a larger set of 2,184 cards that covered every sport from baseball and football to bowling and sand yachting.
In 1991, the Jockey Guild produced a set of 220 cards called 'Jockey Star Cards.' The cards featured cards of many top riders, including Jerry Bailey, Ron Turcotte, Eddie Arcaro, Pat Day, Laffit Pincay, and Julie Krone, as well as your favorite local riders, such as Francisco Torres, Paul Toscano, Randy Meier, Tim Doocy, and Joe Judice. These cards were the closest in similarity to date of mainstream baseball, football, hockey, and basketball cards produced by industry megapowers like Topps, Bowman, and Upper Deck. These cards were marketed as being great for autographs and to get to know the riders better, but only managed minimal retail success. Complete 220-card sets are readily available on eBay for under $10. A full checklist can be found here and an image here. Jockey Star Cards were produced anually through 1998 with minimal success, but they did gain a small niche of the trading card market and offered racing fans a rare collectable.
As the trading card industry has constantly evolved, companies are constantly looking for ways to revamp and further differentiate their products. By the mid/late-1990s, companies were introducing 'autograph cards' and 'jersey cards' to the market. Autograph cards were randomly inserted into packs of cards at an extremely rare rate (perhaps 1 card per every 250+ packs) and featured cards hand-signed by the player depicted. Jersey cards featured swatches of actual game-worn jerseys. Next to come where cards that featured pieces of game-used baseballs/footballs, pads, and anything else conceivable. Heck, in 2001 Topps created a John F. Kennedy card with an actual piece of the Berlin Wall in it (photo here)!
What does this all have to do with horse racing? Well, with the increased amount of differentiation sought by manufacturers, some have began to create 'Sports Legends' sets, and in 2008 the Donruss company introduced its Sports Legends series. Amongst the set were cards featuring the jockeys of the last three Triple Crown winners - Steve Cauthen, Jean Cruguet, and Ron Turcotte. The set, which prides itself on bringing collectors autograph and jersey cards, featured hand-signed cards of that trio (available on ebay for no more than $5 each before shipping), as well as a Cauthen card that features an authentic piece of race-worn silks, and a rarer card that features the signatures of all 3 riders.
Images can be found here -
Steve Cauthen Autograph Card (individually numbered out of 1,236)
Jean Cruguet Autograph Card (individually numbered out of 1,103)
Ron Turcotte Autograph Card (individually numbered out of 1,370)
Steve Cauthen Race-Worn Silks Card (individually numbered out of 500)
So how does a company one-up that for racing fans? The Upper Deck Card Company figured it out. As part of its recently introduced 'Goodwin Champions' set, the company has inserted a subset of three very rare cards that should be well received by racing fans. The subset, 'Thoroughbred Hair Cuts' features an actual lock of hair of 3 recent American thoroughbred superstars - Afleet Alex, Funny Cide, and Smarty Jones. The cards, which are inserted at a rate of approximately one per case (a case being 12 hobby boxes, approx. retail price for a case is $899.99). Redemption cards are available on eBay for upwards of $50.
Afleet Alex Hair Card
Smarty Jones Hair Card
So where does the industry go from here? Personally, I'm not sure, but it's extremely exciting to see horse racing featured by national companies and in collectible formats.
While baseball cards were growing in popularity in the United States, cards commemorating top riders and owners were taking off across the Atlantic in Great Britain. This set, produced in 1906 by Ogdens, feature a relatively inexpensive market value - £2.70 (approx. $4.80US) a piece - and can generally be found on eBay and other popular collectible/auction websites. A subsequent set, produced in 1907 by the same company, was the first to portray thoroughbred legends, and included Europe's great horses from the turn-of-the-century including Cicero, Galopin, Diamond Jubilee, and Pretty Polly, amongst others. Similar cards were produced in Australia around the same time. Over the next few decades, Odgens produced similar cards in Europe, 25 and 50 card sets showcasing the winners of certain races and 'prominent racehorses of the present day.' An excellent 'Guide' (complete with pictures) to racing trading cards (1888-1933) has been created by eBay user creamofcards and can be found here.
As the popularity of cigarette-type cards dwindled, as did the number of horse racing-related cards. Several small sets of cards were produced over the next couple of decades, with nothing really achieving much collectability in the market.
Sportscaster, a mail-order-only sports card company produced a 48-card set of horse racing cards that encompassed all facets of horse racing, from racetracks to jockeys to famous horses. The full 48 card checklist and pictures of each card can be found here. The cards, produced from 1977-1979 feature thoroughbred staples such as Secretariat, Churchill Downs, Willie Shoemaker, the All-American Futurity, the Hambleton, and the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. These cards were part of a larger set of 2,184 cards that covered every sport from baseball and football to bowling and sand yachting.
In 1991, the Jockey Guild produced a set of 220 cards called 'Jockey Star Cards.' The cards featured cards of many top riders, including Jerry Bailey, Ron Turcotte, Eddie Arcaro, Pat Day, Laffit Pincay, and Julie Krone, as well as your favorite local riders, such as Francisco Torres, Paul Toscano, Randy Meier, Tim Doocy, and Joe Judice. These cards were the closest in similarity to date of mainstream baseball, football, hockey, and basketball cards produced by industry megapowers like Topps, Bowman, and Upper Deck. These cards were marketed as being great for autographs and to get to know the riders better, but only managed minimal retail success. Complete 220-card sets are readily available on eBay for under $10. A full checklist can be found here and an image here. Jockey Star Cards were produced anually through 1998 with minimal success, but they did gain a small niche of the trading card market and offered racing fans a rare collectable.
As the trading card industry has constantly evolved, companies are constantly looking for ways to revamp and further differentiate their products. By the mid/late-1990s, companies were introducing 'autograph cards' and 'jersey cards' to the market. Autograph cards were randomly inserted into packs of cards at an extremely rare rate (perhaps 1 card per every 250+ packs) and featured cards hand-signed by the player depicted. Jersey cards featured swatches of actual game-worn jerseys. Next to come where cards that featured pieces of game-used baseballs/footballs, pads, and anything else conceivable. Heck, in 2001 Topps created a John F. Kennedy card with an actual piece of the Berlin Wall in it (photo here)!
What does this all have to do with horse racing? Well, with the increased amount of differentiation sought by manufacturers, some have began to create 'Sports Legends' sets, and in 2008 the Donruss company introduced its Sports Legends series. Amongst the set were cards featuring the jockeys of the last three Triple Crown winners - Steve Cauthen, Jean Cruguet, and Ron Turcotte. The set, which prides itself on bringing collectors autograph and jersey cards, featured hand-signed cards of that trio (available on ebay for no more than $5 each before shipping), as well as a Cauthen card that features an authentic piece of race-worn silks, and a rarer card that features the signatures of all 3 riders.
Images can be found here -
Steve Cauthen Autograph Card (individually numbered out of 1,236)
Jean Cruguet Autograph Card (individually numbered out of 1,103)
Ron Turcotte Autograph Card (individually numbered out of 1,370)
Steve Cauthen Race-Worn Silks Card (individually numbered out of 500)
So how does a company one-up that for racing fans? The Upper Deck Card Company figured it out. As part of its recently introduced 'Goodwin Champions' set, the company has inserted a subset of three very rare cards that should be well received by racing fans. The subset, 'Thoroughbred Hair Cuts' features an actual lock of hair of 3 recent American thoroughbred superstars - Afleet Alex, Funny Cide, and Smarty Jones. The cards, which are inserted at a rate of approximately one per case (a case being 12 hobby boxes, approx. retail price for a case is $899.99). Redemption cards are available on eBay for upwards of $50.
Afleet Alex Hair Card
Smarty Jones Hair Card
So where does the industry go from here? Personally, I'm not sure, but it's extremely exciting to see horse racing featured by national companies and in collectible formats.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Hats off to Bernardini
It's tough to feel bad for a horse that earned more than $3,000,000 in his career, won some of the most elite races in the country, and comes from a family of some of the most elite thoroughbreds that the world has ever seen. Yet a lof of the time, I do find myself feeling bad for Bernardini.
Bred to be a superstar, Bernardini's sire is A.P. Indy, a dominating force in the breeding industry. His progeny has earned more than $100,000,000 on the racetrack, and is littered with champions and Grade 1 winners. Bernardini's dam, Cara Rafaela, competed in my of the most sought after races for fillies and mares, including the Kentucky Oaks, Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, Ashland Stakes, Santa Anita Oaks, Hollywood Starlet, Mother Goose Stakes, and the Alcibiades Stakes. While she only won 4 of 24 lifetimes starts, she ran 2nd or 3rd in each of the prestigious races listed above.
On the racetrack, Bernardini was an absolute monster. Between March and October of 2006, Bernardini didn't lose. He competed in races like the Preakness, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Travers, and Jim Dandy, and he won them all in the eastiest of fashion. The prohibitive favorite (as well as the centerpiece of the event's marketing campaign) for the end-of-the-year championship Breeders' Cup Classic, Bernardini did what many thought was unthinkable for the spectacular colt - he lost. He opened up a clear lead at the top of the stretch, but was caught and passed by a colt named Invasor.
Bernardini was retired after the race. Unfortunately for his legacy, it doesn't seem that he'll ever live down losing the Classic to Invasor. One of the most talented horses that this blogger has ever seen, Bernardini has instead become the butt of some jokes and the poster-child of what happens when a talented 3yo faces older horses. Fair? Who knows. I definitely think that he had all the potential in the world and for whatever reason just didn't show it that day.
This Monday and Tuesday, Fasig-Tipton hosted its Saratoga Select Yearlings sale in Saratoga Springs, NY, and Bernardini couldn't be off to a better start as a stallion. Over those two days alone, Bernardini had yearlings sell for $1,300,000, $1,200,000, $1,000,000, $750,000, $700,000, $320,000, $300,000, $250,000, and $230,000. Well done, 'Dini!
Bred to be a superstar, Bernardini's sire is A.P. Indy, a dominating force in the breeding industry. His progeny has earned more than $100,000,000 on the racetrack, and is littered with champions and Grade 1 winners. Bernardini's dam, Cara Rafaela, competed in my of the most sought after races for fillies and mares, including the Kentucky Oaks, Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, Ashland Stakes, Santa Anita Oaks, Hollywood Starlet, Mother Goose Stakes, and the Alcibiades Stakes. While she only won 4 of 24 lifetimes starts, she ran 2nd or 3rd in each of the prestigious races listed above.
On the racetrack, Bernardini was an absolute monster. Between March and October of 2006, Bernardini didn't lose. He competed in races like the Preakness, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Travers, and Jim Dandy, and he won them all in the eastiest of fashion. The prohibitive favorite (as well as the centerpiece of the event's marketing campaign) for the end-of-the-year championship Breeders' Cup Classic, Bernardini did what many thought was unthinkable for the spectacular colt - he lost. He opened up a clear lead at the top of the stretch, but was caught and passed by a colt named Invasor.
Bernardini was retired after the race. Unfortunately for his legacy, it doesn't seem that he'll ever live down losing the Classic to Invasor. One of the most talented horses that this blogger has ever seen, Bernardini has instead become the butt of some jokes and the poster-child of what happens when a talented 3yo faces older horses. Fair? Who knows. I definitely think that he had all the potential in the world and for whatever reason just didn't show it that day.
This Monday and Tuesday, Fasig-Tipton hosted its Saratoga Select Yearlings sale in Saratoga Springs, NY, and Bernardini couldn't be off to a better start as a stallion. Over those two days alone, Bernardini had yearlings sell for $1,300,000, $1,200,000, $1,000,000, $750,000, $700,000, $320,000, $300,000, $250,000, and $230,000. Well done, 'Dini!
Saturday, July 25, 2009
My Plea to Pittsburghers
First, I'd like to apologize to my reader (if I've even got one left at this point) for being away from this blog for so long. I'm still passionately following the 'Sport of Kings' as if it were my first born's Little League team - I just don't haven't had the urge to share my opinions with the world. Since we last communicated, I've jumped into the worlds of post-graduate life, online wagering, and Twitter, however more on those at a later date.
My reason for writing today is to ask something of you. Now, I'd like to start off by saying I hate asking anything of anybody - be it a ride somewhere, a day off work, or even just an extra side of ranch dressing with my french fries - you get the picture. I hate putting others out. But I feel my plea to you today is different. This is something that I feel so passionate about, and something that I KNOW you'll have a good time doing, that I guarantee it'll be worth your time. Next Saturday, August 1, an athlete at the pinnacle of his sport will be competing against his peers at a venue less than an hour outside of downtown Pittsburgh...and I'm guessing you know nothing about it.
Mine That Bird is his name, and he's obviously not a human being, but an animal. A thoroughbred racehorse, to be exact. But before you click away from this page, just hear me out for a few moments. If what I'm asking doesn't sound like your cup of tea, what exactly have you lost by reading? Exactly - nothing. I'm confident in saying that you've heard of the Kentucky Derby - "The Run for the Roses," "The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports" - and are aware of all the glitz and glamour that goes along with it. Held anually on the First Saturday in May for well over a century, the Kentucky Derby brings together the best 20 three-year-old thoroughbreds in the country to compete for a $2,000,000 prize, a blanket of roses, and instant notoriety. It's the Super Bowl, World Series, Stanley Cup Finals, Daytona 500, and Masters of horse racing, all wrapped up in one 2-minute race. This year, the winner of the Kentucky Derby was a diminutive gelding named Mine That Bird, and next Saturday Mine That Bird will become the first Kentucky Derby winner to compete in the state of West Virginia.
Now I know what you're thinking, 'I'm not driving to West Virginia to watch some silly horse run.' But I can assure you, it's more than that. The race will be held at the Mountaineer Racetrack and Gaming Resort, which according to Google Maps, is just 54 minutes from downtown. So distance shouldn't be too big of a concern. But what about costs? Well, you've got parking. That's free. And admission. Also free. Concessions must be through the roof, right? It's cheaper than going to a Pirates game. How about betting? There's absolutely no obligation to bet one horse race, pull one slot, or play one hand of blackjack. So essentially what I'm saying is that this can cost you a little as a few gallons of gasoline. And the day isn't just limited to one horse race. Starting at 2:00 in the afternoon, horses will race about every half hour through the evening. The 'big' race itself, the West Virginia Derby which features Mine That Bird, as well as some of his most talented peers, will be run just after 5:00. If you can't attend, it will be broadcast live on Fox Sports Net Pittsburgh from 5-6pm.
I really want to stress that this is an event that ALL ages can enjoy. Kids will love that you can get so close to the action - it's literally only a couple of feet away. And if they're really lucky they'll have the opportunity to pet one of the thoroughbreds that 'pony' on the track (essentially their riders are there to escort the racehorses to the starting gate and react in the rare case that something goes amiss on the track) before and during the races. Parents will love that it's such a low-cost form of entertainment. Some will love the fast-paced world of horse racing, and others will love the thrill of the risk in putting a couple bucks on a horse or two, looking to make a bit of a profit. You'll love the opportunity to see the majesty of the thoroughbred, and the history that goes along with Saturday's West Virginia Derby.
My advice to you - show up early with your foldable chair, pick a great spot next to the rail, have lunch or an early dinner, maybe a beer or two, and enjoy an exciting and memorable day of horse racing. You'll enjoy it - I promise.
For more information, please visit the official website of the Mountaineer Racetrack & Gaming Resort (http://www.mtrgaming.com/). For a video of Mine That Bird's Kentucky Derby win, please follow this link, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv8x9x5A49s, but don't blink or you'll miss him!
So why not come out and give Mine That Bird a good ole Pittsburgh welcome? I hope to see you at the track!
My reason for writing today is to ask something of you. Now, I'd like to start off by saying I hate asking anything of anybody - be it a ride somewhere, a day off work, or even just an extra side of ranch dressing with my french fries - you get the picture. I hate putting others out. But I feel my plea to you today is different. This is something that I feel so passionate about, and something that I KNOW you'll have a good time doing, that I guarantee it'll be worth your time. Next Saturday, August 1, an athlete at the pinnacle of his sport will be competing against his peers at a venue less than an hour outside of downtown Pittsburgh...and I'm guessing you know nothing about it.
Mine That Bird is his name, and he's obviously not a human being, but an animal. A thoroughbred racehorse, to be exact. But before you click away from this page, just hear me out for a few moments. If what I'm asking doesn't sound like your cup of tea, what exactly have you lost by reading? Exactly - nothing. I'm confident in saying that you've heard of the Kentucky Derby - "The Run for the Roses," "The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports" - and are aware of all the glitz and glamour that goes along with it. Held anually on the First Saturday in May for well over a century, the Kentucky Derby brings together the best 20 three-year-old thoroughbreds in the country to compete for a $2,000,000 prize, a blanket of roses, and instant notoriety. It's the Super Bowl, World Series, Stanley Cup Finals, Daytona 500, and Masters of horse racing, all wrapped up in one 2-minute race. This year, the winner of the Kentucky Derby was a diminutive gelding named Mine That Bird, and next Saturday Mine That Bird will become the first Kentucky Derby winner to compete in the state of West Virginia.
Now I know what you're thinking, 'I'm not driving to West Virginia to watch some silly horse run.' But I can assure you, it's more than that. The race will be held at the Mountaineer Racetrack and Gaming Resort, which according to Google Maps, is just 54 minutes from downtown. So distance shouldn't be too big of a concern. But what about costs? Well, you've got parking. That's free. And admission. Also free. Concessions must be through the roof, right? It's cheaper than going to a Pirates game. How about betting? There's absolutely no obligation to bet one horse race, pull one slot, or play one hand of blackjack. So essentially what I'm saying is that this can cost you a little as a few gallons of gasoline. And the day isn't just limited to one horse race. Starting at 2:00 in the afternoon, horses will race about every half hour through the evening. The 'big' race itself, the West Virginia Derby which features Mine That Bird, as well as some of his most talented peers, will be run just after 5:00. If you can't attend, it will be broadcast live on Fox Sports Net Pittsburgh from 5-6pm.
I really want to stress that this is an event that ALL ages can enjoy. Kids will love that you can get so close to the action - it's literally only a couple of feet away. And if they're really lucky they'll have the opportunity to pet one of the thoroughbreds that 'pony' on the track (essentially their riders are there to escort the racehorses to the starting gate and react in the rare case that something goes amiss on the track) before and during the races. Parents will love that it's such a low-cost form of entertainment. Some will love the fast-paced world of horse racing, and others will love the thrill of the risk in putting a couple bucks on a horse or two, looking to make a bit of a profit. You'll love the opportunity to see the majesty of the thoroughbred, and the history that goes along with Saturday's West Virginia Derby.
My advice to you - show up early with your foldable chair, pick a great spot next to the rail, have lunch or an early dinner, maybe a beer or two, and enjoy an exciting and memorable day of horse racing. You'll enjoy it - I promise.
For more information, please visit the official website of the Mountaineer Racetrack & Gaming Resort (http://www.mtrgaming.com/). For a video of Mine That Bird's Kentucky Derby win, please follow this link, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv8x9x5A49s, but don't blink or you'll miss him!
So why not come out and give Mine That Bird a good ole Pittsburgh welcome? I hope to see you at the track!
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