Bobby Frankel died today. Something about it just seems surreal. One of the greatest trainers the world has ever known is gone. And even though he was blessed to live for 68 years, it still seems as if he's gone way too soon. I guess every death, in it's own way, feels like that, though.
I never had the opportunity to meet Mr. Frankel, and while I wish I had, I'm content to know of him through the stories passed along from others. Bobby Frankel was my favorite trainer in the game. I don't use the world master often, but if anyone deserves that title, it's him. Patient, but not quite to a fault, Mr. Frankel was the type of guy that would sit on a horse for weeks, if not longer, just waiting for that perfect race. And while this tactic might have drove fans crazy, it worked very, very well.
I remember when the Eclipse Awards ballot came out last year. 'Champion Trainer' finalists were Steve Asmussen, Rick Dutrow, and....Bobby Frankel? Frankel? How's he a finalist? So I ran to the statistics. Asmussen had earned 19+ million, trained Curlin, and won twice as many races as the next guy. Dutrow had nearly won a Triple Crown, and trained a handful of champions and G1 winners including Big Brown and Benny the Bull, and had been the 'face' of training for 2008. And then there's Frankel. Not Pletcher, not Mott, not Zito, Baffert or Suroor, but Frankel. What had he done? And then I dug in. He'd quietly won Grade 1 races with Ginger Punch, Mast Track, Double Trouble, Ariege, Vineyard Haven, First Defence, Ventura, Champs Elysees, and Precious Kitten. 9 different Grade 1 winners, really? But that's exactly how Frankel operated - quietly and under-the-radar. No glitz and glamour. No 'everybody look at me!' Just good, honest training.
My favorite Bobby Frankel memory came back in 2004. Horse racing has always kind of fought a stereotype where the connections of horses view their horses as an investment or cash cow (or more often, a sunk cost) rather than as a living, breathing creature. Not that I ever felt that way about it, but the stereotype is always there. But then I saw Sightseek culminate her career with an easy win in the Grade I Beldame. And then I saw the grizzled New Yorker, Bobby Frankel, in the winner's circle. And he was crying. He loved this mare. He loved all of his horses. They were another family to him.
Thanks for the memories, Mr. Frankel. And thank you for never apologizing for upsetting Funny Cide's Triple Crown bid.
RIP Bobby Frankel - you will be missed...
Monday, November 16, 2009
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Handicapping Technique - Trust Thyself
So you see that horse, and something just tells you that he's destined to do something special down the line. Or you have that hunch that you cant get out of the back of your mind. Or you handicap a race for hours, and you keep coming back to the same conclusions. We've all been there. But then, just as we're about to rush to the windows, something happens. A so-called 'expert' jumps in and tells us why we can't win. Why our horse is too slow. Why the favorite we're trying to beat is too formidable. It's happened to all of us, and being a novice horse player, I've often deferred my opinion to the 'expert.' These guys are paid to know what they're talking about, right?
For me, this past Breeders' Cup is a microcosm of why little in handicapping and betting is more important than trusting your own instincts. With its rolling Pick 3's, huge betting pools, abundant Pick 4's, and lucrative Pick 6's, Breeders' Cup weekend is truly one where you can turn a hunch into a sizable return. The first Pick 3 sequence that included all Breeders' Cup races included races 3-5 on Friday, the Marathon, Juvenile Fillies Turf, and Juvenile Fillies. That's where my Pick 3 fun began -
From mid-September on, I wasn't higher on any juvenile filly than I was on She Be Wild. I loved her, even despite her loss in the Alcibiades (Gr I) at Keeneland. Unfortunately, in the week(s) following that Alcibiades loss, I couldn't find one handicapper who actually liked her in the Breeders' Cup. Likewise for the Marathon. Given the new 14f distance, it seemed incredibly likely, if not a lock, that the trophy for that race would go back to Europe. Problem is, four Europeans showed up - heavy favorites Mastery (9/5 ML odds) and Father Time (3/1), as well as Man of Iron (8/1) and longshot Muhannak (12/1). So, which to use, and which to toss?
I devised a small Pick 3 play for the sequence of races that was -
Mastery, Man of Iron / Lillie Langtry, Tapitsfly / She Be Wild
A $4 play in total, I ignored the prices on Father Time, House of Grace (4/1), Blind Luck (3/1), Always a Princess (6/1), and Negligee (6/1), but felt oddly confident. In the days leading up to the race, you wouldn't have found many who liked Man of Iron in that spot (he appeared second-tier at best), Tapitsfly (even though she'd soundly defeated 8/1 shot Smart Seattle in her lone turf try), and She Be Wild (whose I'd been on her bandwagon for weeks). The results started coming in -
Man of Iron (6.40/1) got the nod in the Marathon as Mastery flattened out and Father Time never took to the going. Good, but I figured I'd be alive after that leg. Tapitsly (9.80/1) ran down a dead-game Rose Catherine and took advantage of a rock-hard, quick turf course to use her speed to keep distance between herself and the closers. So, here I am. Alive in the Pick 3 to one horse. Could be worse, but it's tough to get too excited when you're alive to the 5th/6th betting choice in any given race. And in the 35 minutes between races, I completely fell off the bandwagon. I did the ultimate handicapping no-no. I started rewatching races. I reopened the past performances. I found about 147 reasons she wouldn't win, and none that she would.
Gomez was opting for Always a Princess. She had no excuse in losing her last. Leparoux has never been on her. The Beyers don't stand out. She's never run outside of the midwest. Blind Luck might just be THAT good. Is she even better than Negligee? She had a dream trip in her last and couldn't get things done. What happens if Connie and Michael is as advertised? Biofuel will be coming with a heck of a kick. Others appear stronger in the final eighth.
The poor girl I was watching the races with had to have found me to be the most annoying, pessimistic person on the face of the earth. Thank God the gates opened when they did, because I'm not sure I could have taken it much longer. And after what seemed to be the longest 1:43.80 of my life, and after a few tense moments where I thought Leparoux might not find running room soon enough, I had completed one of my life's goals - win a bet big enough that Uncle Sam wants a cut (next on the list - the Derby trifecta).
Unfortunately, it doesn't always work this nicely. Namely Saturday's 'Dirt' Mile. From the moment that Coolmore announced that Mastercraftsman would participate in this race, I hated him for the win. Just something didn't seem right at all. Why take a legitimate European Group I talent, and run him in this afterthought race? To me, the Classic, Mile, and even Turf seemed like much more logical spots. And for some reason, I loved Furthest Land in the race. Despite his 20/1 ML odds, I thought he had a huge chance. I fully expected Midshipman to do well, and even gave Ready's Echo more than one look. For me, this year's 'Dirt' Mile was more of a race of who couldn't win than who could win. Pyro will always hate synthetics. Same with Bullsbay. Mr. Sidney will always be a Grade II/III turf talent. Chocolate Candy will never be 'this' good. But just before post time, just as I was getting ready to unload on a ticket that included my 'top' horses, something regrettable happened. I caved. ESPN brought on Muttonchops and he praised Mastercraftsman. Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss told me how untouchable he was. The Hammer was ready to break open his piggy bank with him. All of these guys couldn't be wrong, right? So I did it. I convinced myself that 7/5 was an incredible price to take on this European Champion, and didn't place one bet where he wasn't keyed for the win. I played him all over Furthest Land, Midshipman, Neko Bay, and Ready's Echo, but never the obverse. With Mastercraftsman out of the trifecta, the exacta (Furthest Land / Ready's Echo) paid $329.10 for $1, and the trifecta (Furthest Land / Ready's Echo / Midshipman) paid $2,933.40 for a buck. Ouch.
Lessons learned. How'd your Breeders' Cup go?
For me, this past Breeders' Cup is a microcosm of why little in handicapping and betting is more important than trusting your own instincts. With its rolling Pick 3's, huge betting pools, abundant Pick 4's, and lucrative Pick 6's, Breeders' Cup weekend is truly one where you can turn a hunch into a sizable return. The first Pick 3 sequence that included all Breeders' Cup races included races 3-5 on Friday, the Marathon, Juvenile Fillies Turf, and Juvenile Fillies. That's where my Pick 3 fun began -
From mid-September on, I wasn't higher on any juvenile filly than I was on She Be Wild. I loved her, even despite her loss in the Alcibiades (Gr I) at Keeneland. Unfortunately, in the week(s) following that Alcibiades loss, I couldn't find one handicapper who actually liked her in the Breeders' Cup. Likewise for the Marathon. Given the new 14f distance, it seemed incredibly likely, if not a lock, that the trophy for that race would go back to Europe. Problem is, four Europeans showed up - heavy favorites Mastery (9/5 ML odds) and Father Time (3/1), as well as Man of Iron (8/1) and longshot Muhannak (12/1). So, which to use, and which to toss?
I devised a small Pick 3 play for the sequence of races that was -
Mastery, Man of Iron / Lillie Langtry, Tapitsfly / She Be Wild
A $4 play in total, I ignored the prices on Father Time, House of Grace (4/1), Blind Luck (3/1), Always a Princess (6/1), and Negligee (6/1), but felt oddly confident. In the days leading up to the race, you wouldn't have found many who liked Man of Iron in that spot (he appeared second-tier at best), Tapitsfly (even though she'd soundly defeated 8/1 shot Smart Seattle in her lone turf try), and She Be Wild (whose I'd been on her bandwagon for weeks). The results started coming in -
Man of Iron (6.40/1) got the nod in the Marathon as Mastery flattened out and Father Time never took to the going. Good, but I figured I'd be alive after that leg. Tapitsly (9.80/1) ran down a dead-game Rose Catherine and took advantage of a rock-hard, quick turf course to use her speed to keep distance between herself and the closers. So, here I am. Alive in the Pick 3 to one horse. Could be worse, but it's tough to get too excited when you're alive to the 5th/6th betting choice in any given race. And in the 35 minutes between races, I completely fell off the bandwagon. I did the ultimate handicapping no-no. I started rewatching races. I reopened the past performances. I found about 147 reasons she wouldn't win, and none that she would.
Gomez was opting for Always a Princess. She had no excuse in losing her last. Leparoux has never been on her. The Beyers don't stand out. She's never run outside of the midwest. Blind Luck might just be THAT good. Is she even better than Negligee? She had a dream trip in her last and couldn't get things done. What happens if Connie and Michael is as advertised? Biofuel will be coming with a heck of a kick. Others appear stronger in the final eighth.
The poor girl I was watching the races with had to have found me to be the most annoying, pessimistic person on the face of the earth. Thank God the gates opened when they did, because I'm not sure I could have taken it much longer. And after what seemed to be the longest 1:43.80 of my life, and after a few tense moments where I thought Leparoux might not find running room soon enough, I had completed one of my life's goals - win a bet big enough that Uncle Sam wants a cut (next on the list - the Derby trifecta).
Unfortunately, it doesn't always work this nicely. Namely Saturday's 'Dirt' Mile. From the moment that Coolmore announced that Mastercraftsman would participate in this race, I hated him for the win. Just something didn't seem right at all. Why take a legitimate European Group I talent, and run him in this afterthought race? To me, the Classic, Mile, and even Turf seemed like much more logical spots. And for some reason, I loved Furthest Land in the race. Despite his 20/1 ML odds, I thought he had a huge chance. I fully expected Midshipman to do well, and even gave Ready's Echo more than one look. For me, this year's 'Dirt' Mile was more of a race of who couldn't win than who could win. Pyro will always hate synthetics. Same with Bullsbay. Mr. Sidney will always be a Grade II/III turf talent. Chocolate Candy will never be 'this' good. But just before post time, just as I was getting ready to unload on a ticket that included my 'top' horses, something regrettable happened. I caved. ESPN brought on Muttonchops and he praised Mastercraftsman. Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss told me how untouchable he was. The Hammer was ready to break open his piggy bank with him. All of these guys couldn't be wrong, right? So I did it. I convinced myself that 7/5 was an incredible price to take on this European Champion, and didn't place one bet where he wasn't keyed for the win. I played him all over Furthest Land, Midshipman, Neko Bay, and Ready's Echo, but never the obverse. With Mastercraftsman out of the trifecta, the exacta (Furthest Land / Ready's Echo) paid $329.10 for $1, and the trifecta (Furthest Land / Ready's Echo / Midshipman) paid $2,933.40 for a buck. Ouch.
Lessons learned. How'd your Breeders' Cup go?
Friday, November 6, 2009
Breeders' Cup Saturday
Juvenile Turf
I genuinely appreciate the Breeders' Cup brass for getting this race out of the way early on the card. From a handicapping perspective, this thing is wide open. Five Europeans ship in, and they represent the powerhouse stables of Godolphin, Coolmore, and Mrs. Susan Roy. You won't find any holes in the past performances of Viscount Nelson (6/1), and at that price he'll be worth a try. The son of Giant's Causeway just missed in the Group II Champagne last out at Doncaster, and he earned a RP Rating of 112 for that performance. Not to be outdone, John Gosden's Pounced (9/2) placed in the Group I Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere last time at Longchamp, and he earned a 114 Racing Post Rating. Godolphin's Buzzword (6/1) has been running in top company all year, and while he's only a Group III winner, he's never been far behind.
The top American hopes lie in Interactif (4/1) and Bridgetown (8/1). Frankly, both can probably win this. Interactif has one of the nicest closing kicks I've seen in a 2yo, but that's a dangerous script to write. A dozen in this field and Desormeaux may not have any beat as they make their way down the backstretch. Not sure that's what I'm looking for from a horse who's actually cutting back in distance off his last two starts. He could have a run like "closed belatedly" written all over him. I kind of really have taken a liking to Bridgetown. He appears to have taken to the Southern California surroundings and scored a win at the distance last out at Woodbine.
1. Pounced
2. Bridgetown
3. Interactif
Turf Sprint
What a great idea it was to add this race! I knew I was a big fan after California Flag and Mr. Nightlinger went :20 3/5 and :41 4/5, 1:05 1/5 last year. Will they go as quick in 2009? It's hard to imagine, but...
In horse racing, you never know. I'm not sure that I see it, but they certainly won't be crawling, either. I expect a quick pace and everybody will be in with a shot turning for home. Cannonball (8/1) was nearly a Group I winner at Ascot for Wesley Ward, and is in the best form of his career. This race will take a lot of luck, but you have to like that Dominguez is aboard. In this crapshoot, he's my top pick.
A European that I've taken a liking to is Jeremy Noseda's Strike the Deal (15/1). The deep closer won a Group III last out at Newbury (GB). Desert Code (20/1) and Diamondrella (4/1) also appear dangerous. Not spending too much time trying to 'cap this cavalry charge...
1. Cannonball
2. Strike the Deal
3. Desert Code
Sprint
Definitely lines up to be an exciting contest boasting some of the quickest horses in the world. Zensational (7/5) and Fatal Bullet (9/2) each have sub-:22 gate speed, and something tells me that talent will be on display in earnest on Saturday.
Honestly, I can't like either off the expected speed duel, and I expect them to come back to the field. Of the closers, two really stand out - Gayego (5/2) and Capt. Candyman Can (15/1), and quite frankly, there's absolutely no way there should be that much discrepency in price between the two. Capt Candyman Can arrived a bit late on the scene last out when up against Fatal Bullet at Keeneland. Unfortunately, he just doesnt seem built for 6f. On the other hand, Gayego is a perfect 4-for-4 at the distance, including a win last out over this track in the Ancient Title (Gr I). I think he gets it done here, but it won't be easy at all.
1. Gayego
2. Fatal Bullet
3. Capt Candyman Can
Juvenile
Essentially the biggest question in here is what to do with D'Funnybone (5/2). The Paul Pompa runner is, in my mind at least, the best main track runner in this field. Unfortunately, he's never been on the synthetics, nor has he ever competed around two turns. He's been working great at Aqueduct for this under Rick Dutrow's care, but how his form carries over onto the synthetic is anyone's best guess. I'm going to go with my gut and not include him here. Odds are that he's either a sprinter at heart or won't like the surface...or perhaps even both.
I think you really have to respect the Pletcher runners in here. Dogwood's Aikenite (8/1) just missed in the Breeders' Futurity (Gr I) at Keeneland, and Zayat's Eskendereya (10/1) won the off-the-turf Pilgrm Stakes last out at Belmont. Aikenite is Gr I palced on the synthetics, while Eskendereya was a runner-up in his turf debut.
I hate the post that Lookin at Lucky (8/5) drew, and while he's the best juvenile in California, I'm not sure that he's well enough clear of the reste of these to overcome his post. I consider him to be a worthy adversary, but a solid play-against.
Not really a huge fan of any of the Euros - Coolmore's duo of Alfred Nobel and Beethoven are both 20/1 on the ML, and they've already run a combined 17 times since May.
1. Aikenite
2. Aspire
3. Lookin At Lucky
Mile
The world looked great for Goldikova (8/5)...until last month, at least. That was when the 'monster' was upset in shocking fashion in the Prix de la Foret (Gr I) at Longchamp, a stark drop off in form that had seen her take a trio of Group I races in her three prior starts, including one against the boys at Deauville. Now, what do you do with her this year? She drew a tough post (11) and even though the American contingent seems to be lacking flair, 3 of her fellow Europeans look to make this no walk in the park.
Juddmonte's Zacinto (8/1) is getting so good that it's almost scary. The 3yo was beaten just 1 1/4 lengths last out by Classic hopeful Rip Van Winkle, and he was also 3 1/4 lengths clear of Delegator that day. Delegator is 3/1 in this field. Zacinto is a horse that is moving into form at the right time and needs to be respected.
I honestly am having trouble making any real case for most of the American's, besdies Ferneley (20/1). The Ben Cecil-trainee is in the form of his career, back in his home state, and ready to roll. Don't toss him, even at that price.
1. Zacinto
2. Goldikova
3. Ferneley
Dirt Mile
To see past Mastercrafstman (6/5) or not is the only question, and in betting this race, I think you do both. One set of wagers where he's very prominent on top, the other where he isn't. To me, it seems very odd that they'd run him here instead of a) the Classic, or b) the Mile, or even c) the Turf.
Race is wide open but I look forward to having some fun with Furthest Land (20/1), Midshipman (6/1), and Ready's Echo (20/1).
1. Midshipman
2. Mastercraftsman
3. Furthest Land
Turf
Unfortunately, this one just came up weaker than stronger this year. Fortunately, about 4 of these are still good enough to win - Conduit (7/5), Spanish Moon (5/2), Dar Re Mi (3/1), and Presious Passion (4/1) all bring great records into this and all have a sizable shot.
Would be appropriate if Dar Re Mi got the job done this year, but just don't think she's good enough to knock off Conduit...
1. Conduit
2. Spanish Moon
3. Dar Re Mi
Classic
It's not my year for handicapping this thing. Have spent too long trying to make heads or tails of about 10 of these, who all shold have a great shot at winning (from the rail) - Colonel John (12/1), Summer Bird (9/2), Zenyatta (5/2), Twice Over (20/1), Richard's Kid (12/1), Gio Ponti (12/1), Einstein (12/1), Rip Van Winkle (7/2), and Quality Road (12/1). If anyone can tell me how any of these will or will not definitely hit the board, I'd love to shake their hand. This thing is just too wide open. Taking a stab in the dark here and going with -
1. Richard's Kid
2. Zenyatta
3. Einstein
I genuinely appreciate the Breeders' Cup brass for getting this race out of the way early on the card. From a handicapping perspective, this thing is wide open. Five Europeans ship in, and they represent the powerhouse stables of Godolphin, Coolmore, and Mrs. Susan Roy. You won't find any holes in the past performances of Viscount Nelson (6/1), and at that price he'll be worth a try. The son of Giant's Causeway just missed in the Group II Champagne last out at Doncaster, and he earned a RP Rating of 112 for that performance. Not to be outdone, John Gosden's Pounced (9/2) placed in the Group I Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere last time at Longchamp, and he earned a 114 Racing Post Rating. Godolphin's Buzzword (6/1) has been running in top company all year, and while he's only a Group III winner, he's never been far behind.
The top American hopes lie in Interactif (4/1) and Bridgetown (8/1). Frankly, both can probably win this. Interactif has one of the nicest closing kicks I've seen in a 2yo, but that's a dangerous script to write. A dozen in this field and Desormeaux may not have any beat as they make their way down the backstretch. Not sure that's what I'm looking for from a horse who's actually cutting back in distance off his last two starts. He could have a run like "closed belatedly" written all over him. I kind of really have taken a liking to Bridgetown. He appears to have taken to the Southern California surroundings and scored a win at the distance last out at Woodbine.
1. Pounced
2. Bridgetown
3. Interactif
Turf Sprint
What a great idea it was to add this race! I knew I was a big fan after California Flag and Mr. Nightlinger went :20 3/5 and :41 4/5, 1:05 1/5 last year. Will they go as quick in 2009? It's hard to imagine, but...
In horse racing, you never know. I'm not sure that I see it, but they certainly won't be crawling, either. I expect a quick pace and everybody will be in with a shot turning for home. Cannonball (8/1) was nearly a Group I winner at Ascot for Wesley Ward, and is in the best form of his career. This race will take a lot of luck, but you have to like that Dominguez is aboard. In this crapshoot, he's my top pick.
A European that I've taken a liking to is Jeremy Noseda's Strike the Deal (15/1). The deep closer won a Group III last out at Newbury (GB). Desert Code (20/1) and Diamondrella (4/1) also appear dangerous. Not spending too much time trying to 'cap this cavalry charge...
1. Cannonball
2. Strike the Deal
3. Desert Code
Sprint
Definitely lines up to be an exciting contest boasting some of the quickest horses in the world. Zensational (7/5) and Fatal Bullet (9/2) each have sub-:22 gate speed, and something tells me that talent will be on display in earnest on Saturday.
Honestly, I can't like either off the expected speed duel, and I expect them to come back to the field. Of the closers, two really stand out - Gayego (5/2) and Capt. Candyman Can (15/1), and quite frankly, there's absolutely no way there should be that much discrepency in price between the two. Capt Candyman Can arrived a bit late on the scene last out when up against Fatal Bullet at Keeneland. Unfortunately, he just doesnt seem built for 6f. On the other hand, Gayego is a perfect 4-for-4 at the distance, including a win last out over this track in the Ancient Title (Gr I). I think he gets it done here, but it won't be easy at all.
1. Gayego
2. Fatal Bullet
3. Capt Candyman Can
Juvenile
Essentially the biggest question in here is what to do with D'Funnybone (5/2). The Paul Pompa runner is, in my mind at least, the best main track runner in this field. Unfortunately, he's never been on the synthetics, nor has he ever competed around two turns. He's been working great at Aqueduct for this under Rick Dutrow's care, but how his form carries over onto the synthetic is anyone's best guess. I'm going to go with my gut and not include him here. Odds are that he's either a sprinter at heart or won't like the surface...or perhaps even both.
I think you really have to respect the Pletcher runners in here. Dogwood's Aikenite (8/1) just missed in the Breeders' Futurity (Gr I) at Keeneland, and Zayat's Eskendereya (10/1) won the off-the-turf Pilgrm Stakes last out at Belmont. Aikenite is Gr I palced on the synthetics, while Eskendereya was a runner-up in his turf debut.
I hate the post that Lookin at Lucky (8/5) drew, and while he's the best juvenile in California, I'm not sure that he's well enough clear of the reste of these to overcome his post. I consider him to be a worthy adversary, but a solid play-against.
Not really a huge fan of any of the Euros - Coolmore's duo of Alfred Nobel and Beethoven are both 20/1 on the ML, and they've already run a combined 17 times since May.
1. Aikenite
2. Aspire
3. Lookin At Lucky
Mile
The world looked great for Goldikova (8/5)...until last month, at least. That was when the 'monster' was upset in shocking fashion in the Prix de la Foret (Gr I) at Longchamp, a stark drop off in form that had seen her take a trio of Group I races in her three prior starts, including one against the boys at Deauville. Now, what do you do with her this year? She drew a tough post (11) and even though the American contingent seems to be lacking flair, 3 of her fellow Europeans look to make this no walk in the park.
Juddmonte's Zacinto (8/1) is getting so good that it's almost scary. The 3yo was beaten just 1 1/4 lengths last out by Classic hopeful Rip Van Winkle, and he was also 3 1/4 lengths clear of Delegator that day. Delegator is 3/1 in this field. Zacinto is a horse that is moving into form at the right time and needs to be respected.
I honestly am having trouble making any real case for most of the American's, besdies Ferneley (20/1). The Ben Cecil-trainee is in the form of his career, back in his home state, and ready to roll. Don't toss him, even at that price.
1. Zacinto
2. Goldikova
3. Ferneley
Dirt Mile
To see past Mastercrafstman (6/5) or not is the only question, and in betting this race, I think you do both. One set of wagers where he's very prominent on top, the other where he isn't. To me, it seems very odd that they'd run him here instead of a) the Classic, or b) the Mile, or even c) the Turf.
Race is wide open but I look forward to having some fun with Furthest Land (20/1), Midshipman (6/1), and Ready's Echo (20/1).
1. Midshipman
2. Mastercraftsman
3. Furthest Land
Turf
Unfortunately, this one just came up weaker than stronger this year. Fortunately, about 4 of these are still good enough to win - Conduit (7/5), Spanish Moon (5/2), Dar Re Mi (3/1), and Presious Passion (4/1) all bring great records into this and all have a sizable shot.
Would be appropriate if Dar Re Mi got the job done this year, but just don't think she's good enough to knock off Conduit...
1. Conduit
2. Spanish Moon
3. Dar Re Mi
Classic
It's not my year for handicapping this thing. Have spent too long trying to make heads or tails of about 10 of these, who all shold have a great shot at winning (from the rail) - Colonel John (12/1), Summer Bird (9/2), Zenyatta (5/2), Twice Over (20/1), Richard's Kid (12/1), Gio Ponti (12/1), Einstein (12/1), Rip Van Winkle (7/2), and Quality Road (12/1). If anyone can tell me how any of these will or will not definitely hit the board, I'd love to shake their hand. This thing is just too wide open. Taking a stab in the dark here and going with -
1. Richard's Kid
2. Zenyatta
3. Einstein
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Breeders' Cup Friday
Breeders Cup Friday
Well, my friends, it's here. It's been more than a year since we experienced the heart-pounding thrills of the 2008 Breeders' Cup, and this particular blogger couldn't be more excited to feel it again. While the Kentucky Derby is the most exciting two minutes and sports, and the Derby Trail and Triple Crown season give us a myriad of thrills and memories, nothing seems to match the overall excitement and magnitude of the Breeders' Cup. With 14 races, $25.5 million in purses, and the world's elite trainers, riders, and, of course, horses all in one place, it's assured that legacies will be forged, memories will be made, and we're going to see things that make us say 'wow.'
Many condemn the Friday/Saturday format of the Cup, but it's growing on me...and quickly. These races are all extremely competitive, and are composed of horses that racing fans want to see. Imagine the Cup without Ventrua. Or Informed Decision. Without the excitement of the Turf Sprint. Like I said, I like it. Let's take a look at Friday's half-dozen -
Marathon
The first race of the card probably sets up to be the most forgettable races of the day. Unfortunately, there just is minimal appeal for this, especially stateside. You can't put a $500,000 pricetag on a race like this and just expect people to show up. Amazingly, but not surprisingly, that's not enough incentive. The American contingent here - Black Astor, Nite Light, Cloudy's Knight, Sir Dave, Eldaafer, and Gangbuster - are completely at the mercy of their European counterparts - Mastery, Father Time, Man of Iron, and Muhannak. The Europeans figure to dominate the wagering, with Mastery (9/5), Father Time (3/1), and Man of Iron (8/1) the first, second, and fourth choices on the morning line.
While many European's contesting main track races will be questioned due to their lack of racing on an all-weather surface, each of the four invaders has already competed, and three have won, over a synthetic track. Mastery and Father Time have already competed at this distance, with Mastery a Group I winner (St Leger) going 14 furlongs.
Even at this elongated distance, I don't anticipate an overly pedestrian pace. I expect Solis to push Black Astor (12/1) from the rail, and wouldn't be surprised if they open up lengths on the field. Big work on 10/24 (6f in 1:11 3/5) indicates he's ready to run, run, run. Don't expect Nite Light (4/1) to let him get too far away, but having trouble loving the Pletcher runner at the distance. Frankie Dettori should have Mastery placed midpack, but my gut tells me to play against him here. If he wins at even money, that's fine. Father Time is a 3yo son of Dansili that trailed Mastery by just 3 1/2 lengths in the St Leger, but I think he could receive a favorable set up here, and he'll be moving well late.
Wiseguy pick looks to be Cloudy's Knight (8/1) - he's won two straight on the turf going 12f - and trainer Jonathan Sheppard ran him in the Sycamore (Gr III) on October 22 with this race in mind. Problem I see is that this horse isn't a spring chicken anymore - he's now 9 - and he's probably lost a few steps off his top form. He's never run on a synthetic track, but I like that this has been the goal the whole time.
Had briefly considered Man of Iron, but I don't like the way he seems to be regarded in Europe. Was sent off at 33/1 in a Group III synthetic stakes at Dundalk, and while he was 4th that day, I don't like the way he flattened out there and even though he was no match for Mastercraftsman, he should have been better than 4th. He is a half to Jazil and Rags to Riches, but I'm not sure that has much to do with anything.
1. Father Time
2. Cloudy's Knight
3. Mastery
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Race really appears to scream chalk. Coolmore's Lillie Langtry (3/1) is a winner of 3-of-6 lifetime, including the Group II Debutante at Leopardstown and a Group III at Naas. Daughter of Danehill Dancer has never been beyond 7f, but I don't anticipate that being a concern. This is a very subpar group of American fillies, and she should have few issues with this lot.
Top American hopes look to be House of Grace (4/1) and Smart Seattle (8/1), who were the 1-2 finishers of Keeneland's Jessamine Stakes. Don't pay attention to the fact that they're separated on the ML - these fillies are about as close in talent as you'll find, and I find it very tough to like one but not the other. Luckily, I like Tapitsfly (8/1) more than both. The Dale Romans-trainee won Saratoga's PG Johnson in her only turf try, and she knocked off Smart Seattle in the process. She earned an 81 Beyer that day, which isn't great in and of itself, but makes her very competitive in this lot.
1. Lillie Langry
2. Tapitsfly
3. Smart Seattle
Juvenile Fillies
This is one of those races that, for better or for worse, I latched onto a filly a while ago and I'm going to ride things out with her. I loved the first three races of She Be Wild's (8/1) career, and liked her last, even though she was beaten in the Alcibiades (Gr I) by Negligee (6/1). She loses Gomez, but picks up Leparoux, and have to wonder if the Alcibiades was kind of used as a prep for this. She's got good tactical speed and should be more prepared to get the distance than many of her counterparts.
Baffert is huge on Always a Princess (6/1), and I can see why. Inexperienced daughter of Leroidesanimaux was second in the Oak Leaf (Gr I), even though that represented only her second career start.
Connie and Michael (4/1) earned a huge Beyer Speed Figure in her debut at Keeneland, getting 7f in 1:22 3/5 en route to a 7 3/4-length win and a 95 Beyer, but offers little value at that price and this would be a very tough task.
Blind Luck is the best of the Californians and figures to be a huge factor.
1. She Be Wild
2. Blind Luck
3. Always a Princess
Filly & Mare Turf
This race sets up to be one of my potential 'bomb' races, meaning that I fully expect something to happen to really shake things up. The favorites - Forever Together (5/2), Magical Fantasy (3/1), Midday (4/1), and Pure Clan (5/1) - all have major problems (in my mind at least) that will make me think twice before using them.
There figures to be a real duel on the front end, but instead of a speed duel, it'll be a bunch of riders not trying to take the lead. Visit (10/1) flashed a bit of speed in the Yellow Ribbon (Gr I) last out, and she also ran 4th in this race last year at 17/1, so the back class is there. She loses Gomez, but picks up Velazquez, plus she loves this course and excels at the distance. She'll figure.
Same with Rutherienne (8/1). She hasn't missed the board since 2007, all in graded stakes. She doesn't look like a winner, though.
Midday is my choice of the favorites - shows great form, is a Group I winner at the distance. She has some tactical speed and I just don't see many detriments.
1. Midday
2. Rutherienne
3. Forever Together
Filly & Mare Sprint
Probably the race of the day...
The Ventura/Informed Decision exacta box is probably the exacta lock of the event, as these two appears heads above their competition in every facet of the game. Consistency, speed, adaptability, affinity for synthetics, and a great record at the distance.
Personally, I fancy Ventura. I think she's in better form and is more rested than Informed Decision, who's had a long and difficult campaign. I've heard nothing but rave reviews about how Ventura has looked, and this is a mare who's been running with some of the world's best thoroughbreds this year. Remember, she was only beaten a nose by Gio Ponti in the Kilroe (Gr I) back in March.
1. Ventura
2. Informed Decision
3. Seventh Street
Ladies' Classic
Favorites are Careless Jewel (2/1) and Music Note (9/5). Personally I don't like Careless Jewel much at all. I think she completely lacks class and has looked good beating bad horses, but this is a whole new league. I expect the wheels to come off here.
Music Note appears the best of a very average crop, so I'll use her but not overly confident in it. Im more interested in the place/show horses. I think Proviso and Rainbow View both bounce off strong 'off the plane' efforts. Mushka isn't a fast horse, but she's in peak form and that's something that is very dangerous this time of the year.
I find it hard to like Life is Sweet as she just continues running in the wrong direction in regard to her form, but I do kind of fancy Lethal Heat . The pace sets up for her, but she's just never been this good.
Look out for Cocoa Beach. This is a track that suits her well and she likes the distance (3 for 5 lifetime, 100% ITM) and there is no Zenyatta in here for her to chase.
1. Music Note
2. Mushka
3. Cocoa Beach
Good luck on Friday! Will be back tomorrow night with some thoughts on the Friday results as well as Saturday's selections
Many condemn the Friday/Saturday format of the Cup, but it's growing on me...and quickly. These races are all extremely competitive, and are composed of horses that racing fans want to see. Imagine the Cup without Ventrua. Or Informed Decision. Without the excitement of the Turf Sprint. Like I said, I like it. Let's take a look at Friday's half-dozen -
Marathon
The first race of the card probably sets up to be the most forgettable races of the day. Unfortunately, there just is minimal appeal for this, especially stateside. You can't put a $500,000 pricetag on a race like this and just expect people to show up. Amazingly, but not surprisingly, that's not enough incentive. The American contingent here - Black Astor, Nite Light, Cloudy's Knight, Sir Dave, Eldaafer, and Gangbuster - are completely at the mercy of their European counterparts - Mastery, Father Time, Man of Iron, and Muhannak. The Europeans figure to dominate the wagering, with Mastery (9/5), Father Time (3/1), and Man of Iron (8/1) the first, second, and fourth choices on the morning line.
While many European's contesting main track races will be questioned due to their lack of racing on an all-weather surface, each of the four invaders has already competed, and three have won, over a synthetic track. Mastery and Father Time have already competed at this distance, with Mastery a Group I winner (St Leger) going 14 furlongs.
Even at this elongated distance, I don't anticipate an overly pedestrian pace. I expect Solis to push Black Astor (12/1) from the rail, and wouldn't be surprised if they open up lengths on the field. Big work on 10/24 (6f in 1:11 3/5) indicates he's ready to run, run, run. Don't expect Nite Light (4/1) to let him get too far away, but having trouble loving the Pletcher runner at the distance. Frankie Dettori should have Mastery placed midpack, but my gut tells me to play against him here. If he wins at even money, that's fine. Father Time is a 3yo son of Dansili that trailed Mastery by just 3 1/2 lengths in the St Leger, but I think he could receive a favorable set up here, and he'll be moving well late.
Wiseguy pick looks to be Cloudy's Knight (8/1) - he's won two straight on the turf going 12f - and trainer Jonathan Sheppard ran him in the Sycamore (Gr III) on October 22 with this race in mind. Problem I see is that this horse isn't a spring chicken anymore - he's now 9 - and he's probably lost a few steps off his top form. He's never run on a synthetic track, but I like that this has been the goal the whole time.
Had briefly considered Man of Iron, but I don't like the way he seems to be regarded in Europe. Was sent off at 33/1 in a Group III synthetic stakes at Dundalk, and while he was 4th that day, I don't like the way he flattened out there and even though he was no match for Mastercraftsman, he should have been better than 4th. He is a half to Jazil and Rags to Riches, but I'm not sure that has much to do with anything.
1. Father Time
2. Cloudy's Knight
3. Mastery
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Race really appears to scream chalk. Coolmore's Lillie Langtry (3/1) is a winner of 3-of-6 lifetime, including the Group II Debutante at Leopardstown and a Group III at Naas. Daughter of Danehill Dancer has never been beyond 7f, but I don't anticipate that being a concern. This is a very subpar group of American fillies, and she should have few issues with this lot.
Top American hopes look to be House of Grace (4/1) and Smart Seattle (8/1), who were the 1-2 finishers of Keeneland's Jessamine Stakes. Don't pay attention to the fact that they're separated on the ML - these fillies are about as close in talent as you'll find, and I find it very tough to like one but not the other. Luckily, I like Tapitsfly (8/1) more than both. The Dale Romans-trainee won Saratoga's PG Johnson in her only turf try, and she knocked off Smart Seattle in the process. She earned an 81 Beyer that day, which isn't great in and of itself, but makes her very competitive in this lot.
1. Lillie Langry
2. Tapitsfly
3. Smart Seattle
Juvenile Fillies
This is one of those races that, for better or for worse, I latched onto a filly a while ago and I'm going to ride things out with her. I loved the first three races of She Be Wild's (8/1) career, and liked her last, even though she was beaten in the Alcibiades (Gr I) by Negligee (6/1). She loses Gomez, but picks up Leparoux, and have to wonder if the Alcibiades was kind of used as a prep for this. She's got good tactical speed and should be more prepared to get the distance than many of her counterparts.
Baffert is huge on Always a Princess (6/1), and I can see why. Inexperienced daughter of Leroidesanimaux was second in the Oak Leaf (Gr I), even though that represented only her second career start.
Connie and Michael (4/1) earned a huge Beyer Speed Figure in her debut at Keeneland, getting 7f in 1:22 3/5 en route to a 7 3/4-length win and a 95 Beyer, but offers little value at that price and this would be a very tough task.
Blind Luck is the best of the Californians and figures to be a huge factor.
1. She Be Wild
2. Blind Luck
3. Always a Princess
Filly & Mare Turf
This race sets up to be one of my potential 'bomb' races, meaning that I fully expect something to happen to really shake things up. The favorites - Forever Together (5/2), Magical Fantasy (3/1), Midday (4/1), and Pure Clan (5/1) - all have major problems (in my mind at least) that will make me think twice before using them.
There figures to be a real duel on the front end, but instead of a speed duel, it'll be a bunch of riders not trying to take the lead. Visit (10/1) flashed a bit of speed in the Yellow Ribbon (Gr I) last out, and she also ran 4th in this race last year at 17/1, so the back class is there. She loses Gomez, but picks up Velazquez, plus she loves this course and excels at the distance. She'll figure.
Same with Rutherienne (8/1). She hasn't missed the board since 2007, all in graded stakes. She doesn't look like a winner, though.
Midday is my choice of the favorites - shows great form, is a Group I winner at the distance. She has some tactical speed and I just don't see many detriments.
1. Midday
2. Rutherienne
3. Forever Together
Filly & Mare Sprint
Probably the race of the day...
The Ventura/Informed Decision exacta box is probably the exacta lock of the event, as these two appears heads above their competition in every facet of the game. Consistency, speed, adaptability, affinity for synthetics, and a great record at the distance.
Personally, I fancy Ventura. I think she's in better form and is more rested than Informed Decision, who's had a long and difficult campaign. I've heard nothing but rave reviews about how Ventura has looked, and this is a mare who's been running with some of the world's best thoroughbreds this year. Remember, she was only beaten a nose by Gio Ponti in the Kilroe (Gr I) back in March.
1. Ventura
2. Informed Decision
3. Seventh Street
Ladies' Classic
Favorites are Careless Jewel (2/1) and Music Note (9/5). Personally I don't like Careless Jewel much at all. I think she completely lacks class and has looked good beating bad horses, but this is a whole new league. I expect the wheels to come off here.
Music Note appears the best of a very average crop, so I'll use her but not overly confident in it. Im more interested in the place/show horses. I think Proviso and Rainbow View both bounce off strong 'off the plane' efforts. Mushka isn't a fast horse, but she's in peak form and that's something that is very dangerous this time of the year.
I find it hard to like Life is Sweet as she just continues running in the wrong direction in regard to her form, but I do kind of fancy Lethal Heat . The pace sets up for her, but she's just never been this good.
Look out for Cocoa Beach. This is a track that suits her well and she likes the distance (3 for 5 lifetime, 100% ITM) and there is no Zenyatta in here for her to chase.
1. Music Note
2. Mushka
3. Cocoa Beach
Good luck on Friday! Will be back tomorrow night with some thoughts on the Friday results as well as Saturday's selections
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