tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18103665003145019692023-07-17T22:05:36.630-07:00Dustin's Domaindustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-18158211784543792522010-01-08T10:50:00.000-08:002010-01-08T12:15:47.925-08:00Give Us One More Taste<span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">As you've undoubtedly seen, because I highly doubt you live in a cave and don't either read online thoroughbred news outlets, peruse thoroughbred forums, or indulge in a little HRTV/TVG, Zenyatta continues to work out in her "retirement" at Hollywood Park, most recently going an easy 4f in :48 on January 6. The Daily Racing Form's Steve Anderson wrote an intriguing piece yesterday titled '<span style="font-style: italic;">Works Fuel Speculation on Zenyatta</span>' in which he speculates that there is a chance, slim is it may be, that Zenyatta's racing days might not be over. And while I completely believe that her retirement is concrete, I do thoroughly believe that her owners, Mr. & Mrs. Jerome S. Moss, should bring her back in 2010, and while I obviously don't have much of a leg to stand on in presenting my rationale, I've never even owned a horse, here is why I feel she should return in 2010. <br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">1. She's Still Sound<br /><br /></span>One of the most common reasons that thoroughbreds retire is simply that they get hurt, and recuperation time is either too lengthy or too likely to decrease their level of skill that a decision is made to enter the world of breeding instead of trying to bring the horse back to the races. Thankfully, Zenyatta has navigated a 14 race career and has seemingly not yet been bitten by the injury bug. In fact, she's so sound that her connections are even willing to stretch her legs on the track in retirement, and one could surmise that if there was any concern regarding her condition, she wouldn't have worked three times since the Breeders' Cup. <span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><br />2. She's Still Atop Her Game<br /><br /></span>Another common reason that horses are retired is that they lose their form. Just like human athletes, equine athletes are prone to losing a step or two as they age, and sometimes they even lose the interest in doing their 'job' (but more on that a little later). Zenyatta, who turned six as the ball dropped in New York City (she actually wont turn 6 until April), may very well be in the best form of her lifetime. Her Breeders' Cup Classic score was both the deepest field that she beat, but also the most strenuous race that she'd ever encountered, and also marked a new career best Beyer Speed Figure (112) for the mare. If her career was anything but still on an upswing, she wouldn't have done as well as she did that day. Heck, rider Mike Smith believes she still has more in reserve than she showed that day. Yes, Zenyatta is 6, and 6 is an age where thoroughbreds often begin to show signs of slowing down, but that's far from a fact in the game. We've seen more than a few 9 and 10 year olds win upper echelon Grade 1 races to say that aging is anything more than an individual trait that will catch up to some thoroughbreds quicker than it will catch up to others. It should be noted that Zenyatta has only run 14 times in her career, hardly a large number, and it's entirely conceivable that her best days are still ahead of her. <span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><br />3. She Has No Financial Value Doing Anything Else<br /><br /></span>As much as we hate to admit it, money plays a bigger role in these decisions than we want to concede. And it makes sense - when you can send a mare like 2002 Horse of the Year, Azeri, to an auction and have the bidding reach several million dollars, you're making what seems to be a sound financial decision in retiring. Or when you can sell the foals of that mare individually for millions of dollars each, you look to have made the right call by sending her to be bred. But, when the majority of your racing plan revolves around a breed-to-race mentality, where you have no real intention of selling the mare or her foals, her value is minimized off the track. As soon as she no longer is capable of yielding dividends on the racetrack, there really isn't any way for her to make money for her owners. Now granted, the Mosses appear to be very financially well off, and they certainly will survive without the couple of million dollars one would figure Zenyatta to earn for them in 2010. They didn't get to where they are by making poor financial decisions, though. Zenyatta earned over $3.3M in an abbreviated 5-race 2009 campaign, and you'd have to think that nobody, not even somebody as rich as the Mosses, would want to give that up. <span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><br />4. She Can Solidify Her Place In History<br /></span><br />If Zenyatta is indeed retired, she'll retire as one of the best female horses of all-time, and in and of itself, that's one hell of an accomplishment. To be mentioned alongside names like Ruffian, Personal Ensign, Go for Wand, Lady's Secret, Azeri, Rachel Alexandra, Winning Colors, etc. is a testament to the talent, tenacity, and consistency Zenyatta brought to the track every time she went postward. However, how special would it be if Zenyatta were remembered as <span style="font-style: italic;">better </span>than that lot? A 2010 campaign could accomplish that. With current earnings of $5,474,580, another strong season could supplant Curlin as the all-time North American leading money earner. With a current undefeated 14-for-14 record, she could definitely bypass Pepper's Pride's 19-for-19 record as the winningest contemporary North American thoroughbred without a loss. Those are two extremely prestigious tangible records that Zenyatta could hold if she returned in 2010, as well as all of the intangibles (best female horse ever?), and I wouldn't bet against Zenyatta achieving all of that. You've got something so close to the cusp of true greatness, so it almost seems odd to shy away from it now. She was campaigned in a way that made it extremely clear that preserving her record mattered to the connections, and it worked. She still brings an unblemished resume to the table each and every time I look at her past performances, but at this point, why not work on making her resume just a bit stronger? <br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">5. Breed to Race Rarely Works<br /><br /></span>One belief is that the Mosses want to retire Zenyatta because they can't wait to race her offspring. And while it would be breathtaking to see a son of Zenyatta win the Kentucky Derby, or a daughter of hers become a champion, it's not exactly likely. At all. The notion that the best horses conceive the best horses makes perfect sense in theory, but somewhere along the way, luck plays a huge role in the process. By all intents and purposes, Zenyatta herself is an example of this. Not overly-regally bred, Zenyatta sold for $60,000 at auction as a yearling, and nobody would have ever guessed that she'd become the mare that she is today. Breeding is a cruel, cruel game, and just because you're a superstar female horse, it doesn't mean you're going to get any breaks in the breeding shed. Just take a look at these recent examples - </span></span><br /><ul><li><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Bird Town, winner of the 2003 Kentucky Oaks and Champion 3yo Filly that year, was first bred in 2004. She's yet to have an offspring record a workout, let alone race.</span></span></li><li><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Winning Colors, winner of the 1988 Kentucky Derby and Champion 3yo Filly that year failed to produce a graded stakes winner amongst her progeny.<br /></span></span></li><li><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Champion Older Female in 1998, Escena, has yet to have a any of her progeny even compete in a stakes race. <br /></span></span></li><li><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The amazing Personal Ensign, one of the best female horses of all time (if not the best), produced just one millionaire, that being My Flag. <br /></span></span></li><li><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Lady's Secret, an 11-time Grade 1 winner, no foals who were notable on the racetrack. <br /></span></span></li></ul><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The list could be much longer than that, but my point is - just because you're a great racemare, it doesn't mean you're going to be a great producer, or even a good producer. Why give up on something that is nearly a sure thing (that being that Zenyatta is going to be an incredible racehorse) for a complete unknown (that being Zenyatta's offspring). It is infinitely more conceivable that Zenyatta would win the Breeders' Cup Classic in 2010 than the foal she produced in 2010 would be a graded stakes performer, let alone a Kentucky Derby winner. What's the rush? </span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">6. She Loves her Job<br /><br /></span>I feel like I've saved the best for last, but Zenyatta LOVES her job. She loves going out to the track, she loves working out once a week, and she loves trouncing the competition whenever he schedule allows for it. SO my question is...why rush to take that away from her? This is a mare that was so miserable just standing in her stall that her connections had to start working her out again, just to calm her down a bit. Being a racehorse is all she knows, but most importantly, its something that she wants to do. Some horses tend to lose interest and stop trying as they get older. That's not the case with Zenyatta. Zenyatta is the exact opposite. If you loved your job, and wanted to do it every chance you got (seems way too utopian, huh?), would you want that to be taken from you? Because that's what seems to be happening to Zenyatta. She's telling the people that work with her on a daily basis that she wants to go out and race, and instead she's going to go be a pasture ornament somewhere in Kentucky. Surely she'll adapt in time, but again, what's the rush? People say she deserves her retirement, and sure she does. She's accomplished more than just about any other thoroughbred in the history of racing in North America. But at the same time, why not at least try and give the athlete a say? If she wants to run, and again, all parties involved with her have seemingly conceded that she does, why not give her the opportunity? <br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">7. Because Horse Racing Needs The Help<br /><br /></span>No, it's not the Mosses responsibility to 'save' horse racing, and no, Zenyatta coming back in 2010 wouldn't be anything more than putting a bandaid on a gunshot wound, but it would help. For whatever reason, the national media didn't latch onto the Zenyatta story until the Classic. One could say that's their loss, and it is, but it's also horse racing's loss if the attention that would be given to her goes wasted. Horse racing doesn't receive much attention at all, but when a horse does something to deserve attention, outlets like ESPN and others do give them their due. We saw this with Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, and even Curlin to a degree, and we're seeing it now with Rachel Alexandra. And if she returned in 2010, we'd see it with Zenyatta. Televised races, mentions on SportsCenter/other news shows, regular online updates on websites not dedicated to thoroughbred racing...it couldn't hurt at all. And as much of a pipe dream it is, a Zenyatta/Rachel Alexandra showdown would be huge for horse racing. I won't go and compare it to races won decades ago, but it wouldn't shock me if ratings and attendance for that race, depending on the venue, matched some of the best figures that we've seen in recent history. I won't say racing needs that race to happen, but it'd be better off if it did. Like I said, the Mosses owe us or the sport absolutely nothing. These sporting owners were one of only two in the last decade to bring a non-gelding Kentucky Derby winner back to race as an older horse, and they also campaigned Tiago through his five-year-old campaign, and ran Zenyatta in the Classic when they could have played it easy and gone for the Ladies' Classic. <br /><br />As I conceded earlier, Zenyatta won't be back in 2010. Well I shouldn't speak in such absolutes, but it'd completely shock me if we saw her in the starting gate ever again. With that said, I will say that there are a lot of reasons that Zenyatta should return in 2010. <br /><br />Dare to dream, I guess. <br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span></span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-64821557763056013952009-12-21T08:41:00.000-08:002009-12-21T15:31:37.794-08:00The Postman Let Me Down...Again<span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="font-size:85%;">The United States Postal Service handles billions of pieces of mail every December - everything from your Christmas card to that relative you haven't seen or talked to in a year, that fruitcake for Uncle Albert, or that ugly sweater that your great aunt hand-knit for your teenage son. And more than often, and we're talking an incredible amount of the time, they get the job done without fault. But I have a complaint. It seems that every year, they manage to lose my official Eclipse Awards ballot. Around the first of December, I start skipping to the mailbox every day thinking that day is going to be the day it finally arrives. And every day, I end up dejectedly retreating from the mailbox, no ballot in hand. So where is it? Where all of the missing mail goes. Topeka, Kansas. I hope somebody there fills it out for me. Oh well, maybe next year.<br /><br />Below are my selections for the 2009 Thoroughbred Eclipse Awards. These and $1.19 will get you a small coffee from McDonald's. But can a cup of coffee bring you such logical insight? Of course not. Then again, can this column keep you awake like a shot of caffeine can? You tell me.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Champion Apprentice Jockey</span><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Inez Karlsson</span> leads all apprentices in both wins and earnings, and made a very strong showing for herself at the Arlington Park summer meet, as well as several others. Wins at a solid 15% clip and hits the board at a 44% rate, and can't really find fault in anything that she's done in 2009. In most year's she'd be a runaway selection for me, but not 2009. I actually prefer <span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 153); font-style: italic;">Christian Santiago Reyes </span>here. The 19 year old Puerto Rican import didn't earn his first victory in the States until April at Gulfstream, and immediately made a name for himself in Southern California. Has 93 winners on the year (fewer than Karlsson), $2,413,676 in earnings (fewer than Karlsson), but this is a kid that was a Top 6 rider at DelMar this summer (beating out veterans like Solis, Quinonez, and Smith), is currently in the Top 10 at Hollywood Park, and has made a name for himself in a very difficult jockey colony out west. Also checked in second in the rider standings at Fairplex Park, and won the Cal Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita. I also give guys like <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Luis Saez</span> a ton of credit, and like I said, Karlsson is a heck of a rider, but ultimately Reyes gets the nod from me.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pick - Christian Santiago Reyes<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br />Champion Breeder<br /><br /></span>You might as well just rename this award the "<span style="font-style: italic;">Alright, we're going to let Frank talk for a few moments, I really hope he doesn't have spinach in his teeth</span>" award, because it seems that Stronach's <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Adena Springs</span> will be the premier breeder in North America for as long as he wants to keep pumping out thoroughbreds. He has won this award in 5 consecutive years, but he's deserved it. Led the nation in breeder wins and earnings by landslide margins in 2009, and also bred 3 graded stakes winners. Would be remiss if I didn't also give a mention to <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Juddmonte Farms</span>, a 4-time winner of this award, who led all breeders with 10 graded wins and 6 Grade 1 wins, but had just 43 winners in North America. Probably horse for horse, they had a stronger year than Adena, but due to the sheer magnitude of the statistics, I still give the edge to Stronach and Co. If only Frank could have run racetracks like he ran his breeding conglomerate.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pick - Adena Springs </span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Champion Owner<br /><br /></span>A pretty unique award in that, even with so many powerhouse stables nationwide, it has gone to a different owner every year since 2002. Not too bad for parity at all. And in 2009, it's pretty safe to say that voters have a ton of options from which to choose. <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">WinStar Farm</span> led the nation in earnings, and their impressive stable featured stars like Well Armed (Dubai World Cup), Court Vision (in a partnership with IEAH Stables; Shadwell Turf Mile), as well as three Kentucky Derby entrants, and three impressive juvenile graded winners (Rule, Super Saver, American Lion). <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Juddmonte Farms</span>, scored 6 Grade 1 wins with Ventura, Champs Elysees, Midships, and Midday, the last being in the Breeders' Cup, but overall won just 27 races in North America. <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Godolphin Racing</span> had another banner year, winning 8 Grade 1 races with a large number of different horses, including Pyro, Vineyard Haven, Music Note, Flashing, Seventh Street, and Gayego, and also won graded races with several others, including Sara Louise, Regal Ransom, Desert Party, and Girolamo, did well with Midshipman, who ran 3rd in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, which has still never been run on the dirt going a mile. My main concern with Godolphin's 2009 campaign is that essentially from January through July, and them from November on, Godolphin did nothing in North America. From August 1 - October 31, Godolphin won 6 of its 8 Grade 1 races. <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Michael J. Gill</span> had another incredible year in the claiming game, winning at a clip of more than a race per day (364 winners through 12/20/09), and he's second in earnings, behind just WinStar. The usual knocks will come out - he does it all with claimers and he doesn't care enough for his horses - but he did win this award in 2005, so the precedent definitely exists. <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">M/M Jerome S. Moss</span> had a solid year that was capped by a win in the Breeders' Cup Classic by their spectacular Zenyatta, but beyond Zenyatta, their 2009 campaign wasn't overly deep. She accounted for 5 of their 7 graded wins, and all 4 of their Gr 1 victories.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pick - Godolphin Racing<br /><br />Champion Jockey<br /><br /></span>An award that is often won in bunches, 8 times since 1993 has the defending champion had his name called again. Jerry Bailey leads the way with 7 championships, and Johnny Velazquez, Mike Smith, and <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Garrett Gomez</span> have 2 each, and Gomez is the two-time defending champion (2007, 2008). Can Gomez make it 3 straight in 2009? It's one tough decision. I went back and forth between Gomez and <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Julien Leparoux</span> more than a few times, as each had banner years in thoroughbred racing. Leparoux holds an edge in both wins (247 to 206; through 12/20/09) and earnings ($18.56M to $18.33M), whereas Gomez holds the edge in win percentage and WPS percentage. Amazingly, both scored 34 graded victories, with Gomez holding the edge in G1 wins (13 to 10) and G2 wins (15 to 10), whereas Leparoux got the nod with G3 winners (14 to 6). Leparoux bagged three winners on the Breeders' Cup card, with Furthest Land, She Be Wild, and Informed Decision, whereas Gomez picked up just one (Life Is Sweet). Honestly, I think the statistics are so close that you could go either way with your choice, but I'm going with Leparoux. I love the way the guy rides, and if I were starting a horse, this is the guy I'd want to have in my corner. Not that Gomez is a bad alternative...<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pick - Julien Leparoux<br /><br />Champion Trainer<br /><br /></span>The last time a trainer didn't win at least consecutive 'Champion Trainer' titles was way back in 1995, when Bill Mott knocked off D.W. Lukas' one year run. Since then, this award has been a series of runs - Bill Mott (2 years), Bob Baffert (3 years), Bobby Frankel (4 years), Todd Pletcher (4 years), and now it's <span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 153); font-style: italic;">Steve Asmussen</span>'s turn to try to make it two straight, and he probably should. For the third consecutive year, he broke his own record for victories in a season (640 and counting, more than twice what the second guy has). He also leads the country in earnings (more than $6M ahead of the next guy), and won 21 graded races, 7 of which came at the G1 level. His victories include the Woodward, Preakness, Cigar Mile, Vosburgh, Haskell, Mother Goose, and Spinaway, as well as the Jim Dandy, and many other elite races. He was the trainer of Rachel Alexandra from mid-May on. The other logical candidate is <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Bob Baffert</span>. 'Baffy' led the nation with 10 Grade 1 wins and checked in 3rd nationally with earnings over $9M and sent 109 winners to have their picture taken. In most years his resume would be enough to get the nod, but not in 2009.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pick - Steve Asmussen<br /><br />Champion Female Sprinter<br /><br /></span>With a division that included stellar fillies/mares like Ventura, Indian Blessing, and Informed Decision, it's tough to think that this award could be won in landslide fashion, but I definitely think it should be. <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Informed Decision</span> put together a campaign that saw her win 6 of 7 starts, 3 of which at the Gr 1 level, and her wins included the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, the Humana Distaff, the Madison Stakes, the TCA Stakes, the Chicago Handicap, and the Presque Isle Masters. She defeated Ventura twice, and won G1 races on both the dirt and synthetic. She earned $1,435,030 in her career. <span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 153); font-style: italic;">Ventura </span>had a similarly dominating year, but I don't think this is the right award for her. She ran just three times in main track sprint races, and she lost 2 of those 3. The only sprint race she won in 2009 was the Gr 1 Santa Monica in January. She had a more dominating season running a mile on the turf. Have to give a shout-out to <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Indian Blessing</span>, who retires with wins in 10 of 16 starts, and added the Gr 2 Gallant Bloom to her resume in 2009, and also placed in a pair of Gr 1 races - the Dubai Golden Shaheen against the boys and the Ballerina at Saratoga.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pick - Informed Decision<br /><br />Champion Male Sprinter<br /><br /></span>You want a wide-open division, this is it. I believe a case can be made for about 3 or 4 runners in this lot, but after much deliberation, I think I've got a choice. <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Zensational </span>reeled off 3 Grade 1 wins from July through September, the Triple Bend, Bing Crosby, and Pat O Brien, and overall won 5 of 7 starts in 2009. I have a few concerns with him, though. I feel that in his three Gr 1 victories, he really beat no Gr 1 horses. And also, he flopped in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, checking in 5th of 9 behind Dancing in Silks. Then you've got <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Kodiak Kowboy</span>, who ironically didn't check into the discussion until his victory in the 8f Cigar Mile Handicap, a race that isn't even technically a sprint. But overall, 'Kowboy does bring a solid resume to the table, with victories in the aforementioned Cigar Mile, as well as the Gr 1 Vosburgh, the Gr 1 Carter, and the ungraded Donald LeVine at Philly Park. He did win only once at the most traditional 6f distance, but the list of horses he defeated includes Fabulous Strike (twice), Vineyard Haven, Pyro, Bribon, Munnings, and Driven By Success. The best true sprinter in North America might actually be the incredibly talented <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">California Flag</span>, a turf sprinter who won 3 of 4 starts including the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, the Gr 3 Morvich Handicap, and the Green Flash at DelMar, and also ran a close-up 5th in the Gr 1 Cathway Pacific Hong Kong Sprint. Can't see the award going to a horse who lacks a Gr 1 win, though, but he's definitely the best on the turf in North America. <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Dancing in Silks</span> won the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint, but other than that, his resume includes just one open-company win, and that came against allowance horses. His other wins came against restricted/state-bred company in the Cal Cup Sprint and the Pirates Bounty, and overall he just doesn't bring enough to the table. My main determining factor in making a choice here is level of competition, and I believe that Kodiak Kowboy, while he didn't excel at just a traditional sprint distance (although he is a Gr 1 winner going 6f), he beat better horses than did Zensational, and receives my backing here.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pick - Kodiak Kowboy<br /><br />Champion 2yo Female<br /><br /></span>Biases sometimes make for the easiest tie-breaker, but what is one to do when you're biased toward BOTH of the things that you're choosing between? Such is my plight in this category. On one hand I've got <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">She Be Wild</span>, the Juvenile Fillies (Gr 1) victor and the anchor-leg in my largest thoroughbred betting score ever. On the other hand, there is <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Blind Luck</span>, a two-time Gr 1 winner and the daughter of one of my favorite horses of all-time, Pollard's Vision. Either would make a great choice for the champion in this division. She Be Wild won 4 of 5 this year, but only once at the Gr 1 level, and her only other graded win came in the Gr 3 Arlington-Washington Lassie. She placed in the Gr 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland, but defeated the best of her division, including Blind Luck, in the Breeders' Cup. Blind Luck won a pair of Gr 1's - the Hollywood Starlet and the Oak Leaf Stakes, and also placed in the Gr 1 Juvenile Fillies and the Gr 1 DelMar Debutante, and overall won 4 of 6 starts. She Be Wild did prove to be 3/4 of a length better in the Breeders' Cup, but Blind Luck responded with a 7-length romp in the Hollywood Starlet. I truly feel like this is a coin flip, but giving a slight edge to She Be Wild. I still think that Blind Luck benefited from the injury to <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Mi Sueno</span> in California and picked up a few Gr 1 scores due to her retirement. It's a shame that <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Hot Dixie Chick </span>feel off the map, because she might have been the best of any of these.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pick - She Be Wild<br /><br />Champion 2yo Male<br /><br /></span>One of the more open-and-shut cases, have to think this one begins and ends with<span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);"> Lookin At Lucky</span>. A three-time Gr 1 winner, he took the CashCall Futurity, Norfolk Stakes, and DelMar Futurity, and just missed by a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Gr 1) after receiving a less than desirable trip from the far outside post. He also won the Gr 2 Best Pal and earned $1.2M and won 5 of 6 starts. Nobody else really comes close to what he accomplished in 2009, but I have to give a small shoutout to <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Noble's Promise</span> for his campaign that saw him win or place in 4 stakes races, 3 of them graded. He just missed twice to Lookin At Lucky in the BC Juvenile (when third) and the CashCall Futurity (when second).<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pick - Lookin At Lucky<br /><br />Champion 3yo Female<br /><br /></span>No discussion necessary here. If <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Rachel Alexandra</span> doesn't win this unanimously, it'll be a crime. Winner of 5 Gr 1 races, including the Kentucky Oaks, Preakness, Mother Goose, Haskell, and Woodward, she earned more than $2.7M in 2009. It was a season so dominant that we may never see a 3yo filly campaigned so aggressively again.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pick - Rachel Alexandra<br /><br />Champion 3yo Male<br /><br /></span>I'm actually a strong believer that <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Summer Bird</span> had one fo the most underrated campaigns seen by a 3yo male in some time. Reeled off victories in the Belmont, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup, and also placed in the Haskell and Gr 2 Arkansas Derby, and ran a strong 4th in the Breeders' Cup Classic over a surface completely foreign to him. Earned $2.3M this year, and should win this thing decisively. <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Mine That Bird</span> won the Gr 1 Kentucky Derby, but went winless in 7 other starts in 2009, some such losses coming at Sunland Park and Mountaineer. Hard to deny that there is some talent in that gelding, but he needed to show more to deserve consideration here. <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Blame </span>deserves a brief mention for his campaign, a two-time Gr 2 winner, but he did defeat the very talented Parading in the Fayette at Keeneland and Einstein, Macho Again, and several others in the Clark Handicap.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pick - Summer Bird<br /><br />Champion Turf Female<br /><br /></span>Category will explore the question of what is more appealing to voters - a great European or a very good North American. <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Goldikova </span>won just one start in North America, that coming in the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup Mile against some of the best male milers in the world. She also earned a trio of Group 1 wins in France and Britain, and knocked off males in the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville. She proved, without question, to be arguably the world's best miler and female turfer in the world. Her main competitor here, <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Ventura</span>, won a pair of Gr 1 races in 2009, the Woodbine Mile against males and the Matriach against her own sex. She also just missed to the incredibly talented Gio Ponti in the Frank Kilroe Turf Mile back in March. Ventura's other three starts came on the main track, and don't appear prevalent here. My biggest determining factor here is that Ventura, on the heels of her win over the boys in the Woodbine Mile, opted to choose the Filly & Mare Sprint over the Mile, skipping an opportunity to take on Goldikova. Ventura's turf campaign, just 3 races, doesn't do enough for me to pick her over Goldikova's one North American turf start, and I have no question in my mind that Goldikova was the more talented of the two.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pick - Goldikova<br /><br />Champion Turf Male<br /><br /></span>Very quietly, <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Gio Ponti</span> put together one best turf campaigns you'll see from any horse. He showed dominance going 8f in the Frank Kilroe Mile (Gr 1), and stayed up to 11f in the Gr 1 Man O War. He also won twice going 10f in the Gr 1 Manhattan and Arlington Million. Only two horses in this division, <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Presious Passion</span> and <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Take the Points</span>, won more than one Gr 1, each nabbing two. European invader <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Conduit</span>, the winner of the Breeders' Cup Turf (Gr 1) loses luster when his entire resume is taken into consideration. He won just one other start outside of the Turf in 2009.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pick - Gio Ponti</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />Champion Older Female<br /><br /></span>Like Rachel Alexandra in the 3yo Female category, it'll be criminal if <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Zenyatta </span>doesn't win this in a walkover. The winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic (Gr 1), Lady's Secret (Gr 1), Clement Hirsch (Gr 1), Vanity (Gr 1), and Milady (Gr 2), she defeated the Lady's Classic (Gr 1) winner Life is Sweet on three occasions. The only one that might have been able to defeat Zenyatta was Personal Ensign winner <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Icon Project</span>, but she was injured and retired too quickly.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pick - Zenyatta<br /><br />Champion Older Male<br /><br /></span>This category will question how voters actually perceive this award. Given that sprinters have their own award, and that turfers have their own award, is this specifically limited to main track routers? If that is the case, it'll be interesting to see where the voters go. <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Macho Again</span>, <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Einstein</span>, <span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 153); font-style: italic;">Bullsbay</span>, and <span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 153); font-style: italic;">Rail Trip</span> took turns beating one another all year, and none won more than 2 graded races. Einstein took the Gr 1 Santa Anita Handicap and Gr 1 Turf Classic, and also placed in 4 graded races. Macho Again won the Gr 1 Stephen Foster and Gr 2 Oaklawn 'Cap, but missed the board in 4 of 8 tries. Rail Trip won just one graded race in 2009, the Gr 1 Hollywood Gold Cup, and also placed in 3 more. Bullsbay won just 3 of 11 starts in 2009, and although he did win the Gr 1 Whitney, he wasn't good enough otherwise. Kodiak Kowboy was the best of the sprinters, but some voters won't even give him that award. So, how can you give an award for champion older male if they're not even good enough to win the championship in their own division in some voter's eyes? You can't. That leaves me with <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Gio Ponti</span>. Although turfers traditionally have their own award, there is no question in my mind that this one had the best campaign for any North American-based older male horse in 2009. He won 4 Gr 1 races (twice as many as any of his other competitors) including the Frank Kilroe Mile, the Arlington Million, the Manhattan, and Man O War. He also ran 2nd in the Breeders' Cup Classic (Gr 1), and 2nd in the Turf Classic Invitational (Gr 1). With earnings of $2.3M in 2009, he outearned most of his competitors for this award by more than $1M, and should receive this award, no matter what is surface of choice was. He twice finished ahead of Einstein in 2009 as well.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pick - Gio Ponti</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;">Horse of the Year<br /><br /></span>To me, this isn't even as close as it appears on paper. In a case I've made multiple times on a few different internet forums, I don't see how <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Rachel Alexandra</span> doesn't win this award. A campaign that featured 5 Gr 1 wins, three of them against males, she set records and put together the best season by a 3yo filly in decades. Wins in the Woodward, Haskell, and Preakness against the boys, as well as romps in the Kentucky Oaks and Mother Goose, simply outweigh <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Zenyatta</span>'s campaign. It is impossible to knock Zenyatta, but what she didn't do outweighs what she did do. Zenyatta's connections took a chance just once this season, whereas Rachel Alexandra's connections took chances every step of the way after Jackson became the majority owner. While her wins in the Vanity, Milady, Lady's Secret, and Clement Hirsch were races that would pave the way for a walkover in Champion Older Female category, the did little to build her appeal for this category. One win in the Classic shouldn't and doesn't change what she failed to do all year, and that is take chances. Horse of the <span style="font-weight: bold;">Year </span>isn't a one race award, and the only way that I can see Zenyatta getting this is if the voters ignore what happened in January through October. People may point to Rachel Alexandra's small margin victory against Macho Again in the Woodward, but there's no ignoring the fact that Zenyatta barely escaped Anabaa's Creation at DelMar, and she's essentially an allowance horse. If I had to make this a 1, 2, 3 type choice, I might actually be inclined to choose <span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Summer Bird</span> over Zenyatta. Zenyatta had a great <span style="font-style: italic;">race </span>in the Classic that will be remembered fora long, long time. Rachel Alexandra, on the other hand, had a great <span style="font-style: italic;">campaign </span>that will be remembered for just as long. Awards like this are based on a campaign, not a race, and I can't make a case for Zenyatta here. Rachel Alexandra, while she may not have been the better horse, who knows there, had the better campaign and deserves this award.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pick - Rachel Alexandra<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Have a very Merry Christmas, everybody!</span><br /></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span> <span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span> </span></span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-57661107773880863052009-11-16T18:56:00.000-08:002009-11-16T19:30:41.527-08:00Bobby Frankel<span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Bobby Frankel died today. Something about it just seems surreal. One of the greatest trainers the world has ever known is gone. And even though he was blessed to live for 68 years, it still seems as if he's gone way too soon. I guess every death, in it's own way, feels like that, though. <br /><br />I never had the opportunity to meet Mr. Frankel, and while I wish I had, I'm content to know of him through the stories passed along from others. Bobby Frankel was my favorite trainer in the game. I don't use the world master often, but if anyone deserves that title, it's him. Patient, but not quite to a fault, Mr. Frankel was the type of guy that would sit on a horse for weeks, if not longer, just waiting for that perfect race. And while this tactic might have drove fans crazy, it worked very, very well. <br /><br />I remember when the Eclipse Awards ballot came out last year. 'Champion Trainer' finalists were Steve <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Asmussen</span>, Rick <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Dutrow</span>, and....Bobby Frankel? Frankel? How's he a finalist? So I ran to the statistics. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Asmussen</span> had earned 19+ million, trained <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Curlin</span>, and won twice as many races as the next guy. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Dutrow</span> had nearly won a Triple Crown, and trained a handful of champions and G1 winners including Big Brown and Benny the Bull, and had been the 'face' of training for 2008. And then there's Frankel. Not <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Pletcher</span>, not Mott, not <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Zito</span>, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Baffert</span> or <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Suroor</span>, but Frankel. What had he done? And then I dug in. He'd quietly won Grade 1 races with Ginger Punch, Mast Track, Double Trouble, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Ariege</span>, Vineyard Haven, First Defence, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">Ventura</span>, Champs <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">Elysees</span>, and Precious Kitten. 9 different Grade 1 winners, really? But that's exactly how Frankel operated - quietly and under-the-radar. No glitz and glamour. No 'everybody look at me!' Just good, honest training. <br /><br />My favorite Bobby Frankel memory came back in 2004. Horse racing has always kind of fought a stereotype where the connections of horses view their horses as an investment or cash cow (or more often, a sunk cost) rather than as a living, breathing creature. Not that I ever felt that way about it, but the stereotype is always there. But then I saw <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Sightseek</span> culminate her career with an easy win in the Grade I <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">Beldame</span>. And then I saw the grizzled New Yorker, Bobby Frankel, in the winner's circle. And he was crying. He loved this mare. He loved all of his horses. They were another family to him. <br /><br />Thanks for the memories, Mr. Frankel. And thank you for never apologizing for upsetting Funny <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Cide's</span> Triple Crown bid. <br /><br />RIP Bobby Frankel - you will be missed...<br /></span></span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-86412224865061178202009-11-15T14:29:00.000-08:002009-11-15T15:26:57.233-08:00Handicapping Technique - Trust Thyself<span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So you see that horse, and something just tells you that he's destined to do something special down the line. Or you have that hunch that you cant get out of the back of your mind. Or you handicap a race for hours, and you keep coming back to the same conclusions. We've all been there. But then, just as we're about to rush to the windows, something happens. A so-called 'expert' jumps in and tells us why we can't win. Why our horse is too slow. Why the favorite we're trying to beat is too formidable. It's happened to all of us, and being a novice horse player, I've often deferred my opinion to the 'expert.' These guys are paid to know what they're talking about, right? <br /><br />For me, this past Breeders' Cup is a microcosm of why little in handicapping and betting is more important than trusting your own instincts. With its rolling Pick 3's, huge betting pools, abundant Pick 4's, and lucrative Pick 6's, Breeders' Cup weekend is truly one where you can turn a hunch into a sizable return. The first Pick 3 sequence that included all Breeders' Cup races included races 3-5 on Friday, the Marathon, Juvenile Fillies Turf, and Juvenile Fillies. That's where my Pick 3 fun began -<br /><br />From mid-September on, I wasn't higher on any juvenile filly than I was on She Be Wild. I loved her, even despite her loss in the Alcibiades (Gr I) at Keeneland. Unfortunately, in the week(s) following that Alcibiades loss, I couldn't find one handicapper who actually liked her in the Breeders' Cup. Likewise for the Marathon. Given the new 14f distance, it seemed incredibly likely, if not a lock, that the trophy for that race would go back to Europe. Problem is, four Europeans showed up - heavy favorites Mastery (9/5 ML odds) and Father Time (3/1), as well as Man of Iron (8/1) and longshot Muhannak (12/1). So, which to use, and which to toss? <br /><br />I devised a small Pick 3 play for the sequence of races that was -<br /><br />Mastery, Man of Iron / Lillie Langtry, Tapitsfly / She Be Wild<br /><br />A $4 play in total, I ignored the prices on Father Time, House of Grace (4/1), Blind Luck (3/1), Always a Princess (6/1), and Negligee (6/1), but felt oddly confident. In the days leading up to the race, you wouldn't have found many who liked Man of Iron in that spot (he appeared second-tier at best), Tapitsfly (even though she'd soundly defeated 8/1 shot Smart Seattle in her lone turf try), and She Be Wild (whose I'd been on her bandwagon for weeks). The results started coming in -<br /><br />Man of Iron (6.40/1) got the nod in the Marathon as Mastery flattened out and Father Time never took to the going. Good, but I figured I'd be alive after that leg. Tapitsly (9.80/1) ran down a dead-game Rose Catherine and took advantage of a rock-hard, quick turf course to use her speed to keep distance between herself and the closers. So, here I am. Alive in the Pick 3 to one horse. Could be worse, but it's tough to get too excited when you're alive to the 5th/6th betting choice in any given race. And in the 35 minutes between races, I completely fell off the bandwagon. I did the ultimate handicapping no-no. I started rewatching races. I reopened the past performances. I found about 147 reasons she wouldn't win, and none that she would.<br /><br />Gomez was opting for Always a Princess. She had no excuse in losing her last. Leparoux has never been on her. The Beyers don't stand out. She's never run outside of the midwest. Blind Luck might just be THAT good. Is she even better than Negligee? She had a dream trip in her last and couldn't get things done. What happens if Connie and Michael is as advertised? Biofuel will be coming with a heck of a kick. Others appear stronger in the final eighth. <br /><br />The poor girl I was watching the races with had to have found me to be the most annoying, pessimistic person on the face of the earth. Thank God the gates opened when they did, because I'm not sure I could have taken it much longer. And after what seemed to be the longest 1:43.80 of my life, and after a few tense moments where I thought Leparoux might not find running room soon enough, I had completed one of my life's goals - win a bet big enough that Uncle Sam wants a cut (next on the list - the Derby trifecta). <br /><br />Unfortunately, it doesn't always work this nicely. Namely Saturday's 'Dirt' Mile. From the moment that Coolmore announced that Mastercraftsman would participate in this race, I hated him for the win. Just something didn't seem right at all. Why take a legitimate European Group I talent, and run him in this afterthought race? To me, the Classic, Mile, and even Turf seemed like much more logical spots. And for some reason, I loved Furthest Land in the race. Despite his 20/1 ML odds, I thought he had a huge chance. I fully expected Midshipman to do well, and even gave Ready's Echo more than one look. For me, this year's 'Dirt' Mile was more of a race of who couldn't win than who could win. Pyro will always hate synthetics. Same with Bullsbay. Mr. Sidney will always be a Grade II/III turf talent. Chocolate Candy will never be 'this' good. But just before post time, just as I was getting ready to unload on a ticket that included my 'top' horses, something regrettable happened. I caved. ESPN brought on Muttonchops and he praised Mastercraftsman. Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss told me how untouchable he was. The Hammer was ready to break open his piggy bank with him. All of these guys couldn't be wrong, right? So I did it. I convinced myself that 7/5 was an incredible price to take on this European Champion, and didn't place one bet where he wasn't keyed for the win. I played him all over Furthest Land, Midshipman, Neko Bay, and Ready's Echo, but never the obverse. With Mastercraftsman out of the trifecta, the exacta (Furthest Land / Ready's Echo) paid $329.10 for $1, and the trifecta (Furthest Land / Ready's Echo / Midshipman) paid $2,933.40 for a buck. Ouch. <br /><br />Lessons learned. How'd your Breeders' Cup go? <br /><br /></span></span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-63107953553461062142009-11-06T21:42:00.000-08:002009-11-06T23:23:23.334-08:00Breeders' Cup Saturday<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: verdana;font-size:85%;" >Juvenile Turf<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: verdana;font-size:85%;" >I genuinely appreciate the Breeders' Cup brass for getting this race out of the way early on the card. From a handicapping perspective, this thing is wide open. Five Europeans ship in, and they represent the powerhouse stables of Godolphin, Coolmore, and Mrs. Susan Roy. You won't find any holes in the past performances of Viscount Nelson (6/1), and at that price he'll be worth a try. The son of Giant's Causeway just missed in the Group II Champagne last out at Doncaster, and he earned a RP Rating of 112 for that performance. Not to be outdone, John Gosden's Pounced (9/2) placed in the Group I Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere last time at Longchamp, and he earned a 114 Racing Post Rating. Godolphin's Buzzword (6/1) has been running in top company all year, and while he's only a Group III winner, he's never been far behind. <br /><br />The top American hopes lie in Interactif (4/1) and Bridgetown (8/1). Frankly, both can probably win this. Interactif has one of the nicest closing kicks I've seen in a 2yo, but that's a dangerous script to write. A dozen in this field and Desormeaux may not have any beat as they make their way down the backstretch. Not sure that's what I'm looking for from a horse who's actually cutting back in distance off his last two starts. He could have a run like "closed belatedly" written all over him. I kind of really have taken a liking to Bridgetown. He appears to have taken to the Southern California surroundings and scored a win at the distance last out at Woodbine. <br /><br />1. Pounced<br />2. Bridgetown<br />3. Interactif<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Turf Sprint<br /><br /></span>What a great idea it was to add this race! I knew I was a big fan after California Flag and Mr. Nightlinger went :20 3/5 and :41 4/5, 1:05 1/5 last year. Will they go as quick in 2009? It's hard to imagine, but...<br /><br />In horse racing, you never know. I'm not sure that I see it, but they certainly won't be crawling, either. I expect a quick pace and everybody will be in with a shot turning for home. Cannonball (8/1) was nearly a Group I winner at Ascot for Wesley Ward, and is in the best form of his career. This race will take a lot of luck, but you have to like that Dominguez is aboard. In this crapshoot, he's my top pick. <br /><br />A European that I've taken a liking to is Jeremy Noseda's Strike the Deal (15/1). The deep closer won a Group III last out at Newbury (GB). Desert Code (20/1) and Diamondrella (4/1) also appear dangerous. Not spending too much time trying to 'cap this cavalry charge...<br /><br />1. Cannonball<br />2. Strike the Deal<br />3. Desert Code<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sprint<br /><br /></span>Definitely lines up to be an exciting contest boasting some of the quickest horses in the world. Zensational (7/5) and Fatal Bullet (9/2) each have sub-:22 gate speed, and something tells me that talent will be on display in earnest on Saturday.<br /><br />Honestly, I can't like either off the expected speed duel, and I expect them to come back to the field. Of the closers, two really stand out - Gayego (5/2) and Capt. Candyman Can (15/1), and quite frankly, there's absolutely no way there should be that much discrepency in price between the two. Capt Candyman Can arrived a bit late on the scene last out when up against Fatal Bullet at Keeneland. Unfortunately, he just doesnt seem built for 6f. On the other hand, Gayego is a perfect 4-for-4 at the distance, including a win last out over this track in the Ancient Title (Gr I). I think he gets it done here, but it won't be easy at all.<br /><br />1. Gayego<br />2. Fatal Bullet<br />3. Capt Candyman Can<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Juvenile<br /><br /></span>Essentially the biggest question in here is what to do with D'Funnybone (5/2). The Paul Pompa runner is, in my mind at least, the best main track runner in this field. Unfortunately, he's never been on the synthetics, nor has he ever competed around two turns. He's been working great at Aqueduct for this under Rick Dutrow's care, but how his form carries over onto the synthetic is anyone's best guess. I'm going to go with my gut and not include him here. Odds are that he's either a sprinter at heart or won't like the surface...or perhaps even both.<br /><br />I think you really have to respect the Pletcher runners in here. Dogwood's Aikenite (8/1) just missed in the Breeders' Futurity (Gr I) at Keeneland, and Zayat's Eskendereya (10/1) won the off-the-turf Pilgrm Stakes last out at Belmont. Aikenite is Gr I palced on the synthetics, while Eskendereya was a runner-up in his turf debut. <br /><br />I hate the post that Lookin at Lucky (8/5) drew, and while he's the best juvenile in California, I'm not sure that he's well enough clear of the reste of these to overcome his post. I consider him to be a worthy adversary, but a solid play-against. <br /><br />Not really a huge fan of any of the Euros - Coolmore's duo of Alfred Nobel and Beethoven are both 20/1 on the ML, and they've already run a combined 17 times since May. <br /><br />1. Aikenite<br />2. Aspire<br />3. Lookin At Lucky<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Mile<br /><br /></span>The world looked great for Goldikova (8/5)...until last month, at least. That was when the 'monster' was upset in shocking fashion in the Prix de la Foret (Gr I) at Longchamp, a stark drop off in form that had seen her take a trio of Group I races in her three prior starts, including one against the boys at Deauville. Now, what do you do with her this year? She drew a tough post (11) and even though the American contingent seems to be lacking flair, 3 of her fellow Europeans look to make this no walk in the park. <br /><br />Juddmonte's Zacinto (8/1) is getting so good that it's almost scary. The 3yo was beaten just 1 1/4 lengths last out by Classic hopeful Rip Van Winkle, and he was also 3 1/4 lengths clear of Delegator that day. Delegator is 3/1 in this field. Zacinto is a horse that is moving into form at the right time and needs to be respected.<br /><br />I honestly am having trouble making any real case for most of the American's, besdies Ferneley (20/1). The Ben Cecil-trainee is in the form of his career, back in his home state, and ready to roll. Don't toss him, even at that price. <br /><br />1. Zacinto<br />2. Goldikova<br />3. Ferneley<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Dirt Mile<br /><br /></span>To see past Mastercrafstman (6/5) or not is the only question, and in betting this race, I think you do both. One set of wagers where he's very prominent on top, the other where he isn't. To me, it seems very odd that they'd run him here instead of a) the Classic, or b) the Mile, or even c) the Turf. <br /><br />Race is wide open but I look forward to having some fun with Furthest Land (20/1), Midshipman (6/1), and Ready's Echo (20/1).<br /><br />1. Midshipman<br />2. Mastercraftsman<br />3. Furthest Land<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Turf<br /><br /></span>Unfortunately, this one just came up weaker than stronger this year. Fortunately, about 4 of these are still good enough to win - Conduit (7/5), Spanish Moon (5/2), Dar Re Mi (3/1), and Presious Passion (4/1) all bring great records into this and all have a sizable shot. <br /><br />Would be appropriate if Dar Re Mi got the job done this year, but just don't think she's good enough to knock off Conduit...<br /><br />1. Conduit<br />2. Spanish Moon<br />3. Dar Re Mi<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Classic<br /><br /></span>It's not my year for handicapping this thing. Have spent too long trying to make heads or tails of about 10 of these, who all shold have a great shot at winning (from the rail) - Colonel John (12/1), Summer Bird (9/2), Zenyatta (5/2), Twice Over (20/1), Richard's Kid (12/1), Gio Ponti (12/1), Einstein (12/1), Rip Van Winkle (7/2), and Quality Road (12/1). If anyone can tell me how any of these will or will not definitely hit the board, I'd love to shake their hand. This thing is just too wide open. Taking a stab in the dark here and going with -<br /><br />1. Richard's Kid<br />2. Zenyatta<br />3. Einstein<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-16858964776647704642009-11-05T16:10:00.000-08:002009-11-05T18:08:06.586-08:00Breeders' Cup Friday<div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Breeders Cup Friday<br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family:verdana;">Well, my friends, it's here. It's been more than a year since we experienced the heart-pounding thrills of the 2008 Breeders' Cup, and this particular blogger couldn't be more excited to feel it again. While the Kentucky Derby is the most exciting two minutes and sports, and the Derby Trail and Triple Crown season give us a myriad of thrills and memories, nothing seems to match the overall excitement and magnitude of the Breeders' Cup. With 14 races, $25.5 million in purses, and the world's elite trainers, riders, and, of course, horses all in one place, it's assured that legacies will be forged, memories will be made, and we're going to see things that make us say 'wow.'<br /><br />Many condemn the Friday/Saturday format of the Cup, but it's growing on me...and quickly. These races are all extremely competitive, and are composed of horses that racing fans want to see. Imagine the Cup without Ventrua. Or Informed Decision. Without the excitement of the Turf Sprint. Like I said, I like it. Let's take a look at Friday's half-dozen <span style="font-weight: bold;">-<br /><br />Marathon<br /><br /></span><span>The first race of the card probably sets up to be the most forgettable races of the day. Unfortunately, there just is minimal appeal for this, especially stateside. You can't put a $500,000 pricetag on a race like this and just expect people to show up. Amazingly, but not surprisingly, that's not enough incentive. The American contingent here - Black Astor, Nite Light, Cloudy's Knight, Sir Dave, Eldaafer, and Gangbuster - are completely at the mercy of their European counterparts - Mastery, Father Time, Man of Iron, and Muhannak. The Europeans figure to dominate the wagering, with Mastery (9/5), Father Time (3/1), and Man of Iron (8/1) the first, second, and fourth choices on the morning line.<br /><br />While many European's contesting main track races will be questioned due to their lack of racing on an all-weather surface, each of the four invaders has already competed, and three have won, over a synthetic track. Mastery and Father Time have already competed at this distance, with Mastery a Group I winner (St Leger) going 14 furlongs.<br /><br />Even at this elongated distance, I don't anticipate an overly pedestrian pace. I expect Solis to push Black Astor (12/1) from the rail, and wouldn't be surprised if they open up lengths on the field. Big work on 10/24 (6f in 1:11 3/5) indicates he's ready to run, run, run. Don't expect Nite Light (4/1) to let him get too far away, but having trouble loving the Pletcher runner at the distance. Frankie Dettori should have Mastery placed midpack, but my gut tells me to play against him here. If he wins at even money, that's fine. Father Time is a 3yo son of Dansili that trailed Mastery by just 3 1/2 lengths in the St Leger, but I think he could receive a favorable set up here, and he'll be moving well late.<br /><br />Wiseguy pick looks to be Cloudy's Knight (8/1) - he's won two straight on the turf going 12f - and trainer Jonathan Sheppard ran him in the Sycamore (Gr III) on October 22 with this race in mind. Problem I see is that this horse isn't a spring chicken anymore - he's now 9 - and he's probably lost a few steps off his top form. He's never run on a synthetic track, but I like that this has been the goal the whole time.<br /><br />Had briefly considered Man of Iron, but I don't like the way he seems to be regarded in Europe. Was sent off at 33/1 in a Group III synthetic stakes at Dundalk, and while he was 4th that day, I don't like the way he flattened out there and even though he was no match for Mastercraftsman, he should have been better than 4th. He is a half to Jazil and Rags to Riches, but I'm not sure that has much to do with anything.<br /><br />1. Father Time<br />2. Cloudy's Knight<br />3. Mastery<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Juvenile Fillies Turf<br /><br /></span>Race really appears to scream chalk. Coolmore's Lillie Langtry (3/1) is a winner of 3-of-6 lifetime, including the Group II Debutante at Leopardstown and a Group III at Naas. Daughter of Danehill Dancer has never been beyond 7f, but I don't anticipate that being a concern. This is a very subpar group of American fillies, and she should have few issues with this lot.<br /><br />Top American hopes look to be House of Grace (4/1) and Smart Seattle (8/1), who were the 1-2 finishers of Keeneland's Jessamine Stakes. Don't pay attention to the fact that they're separated on the ML - these fillies are about as close in talent as you'll find, and I find it very tough to like one but not the other. Luckily, I like Tapitsfly (8/1) more than both. The Dale Romans-trainee won Saratoga's PG Johnson in her only turf try, and she knocked off Smart Seattle in the process. She earned an 81 Beyer that day, which isn't great in and of itself, but makes her very competitive in this lot.<br /><br />1. Lillie Langry<br />2. Tapitsfly<br />3. Smart Seattle<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Juvenile Fillies<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span>This is one of those races that, for better or for worse, I latched onto a filly a while ago and I'm going to ride things out with her. I loved the first three races of She Be Wild's (8/1) career, and liked her last, even though she was beaten in the Alcibiades (Gr I) by Negligee (6/1). She loses Gomez, but picks up Leparoux, and have to wonder if the Alcibiades was kind of used as a prep for this. She's got good tactical speed and should be more prepared to get the distance than many of her counterparts.<br /><br />Baffert is huge on Always a Princess (6/1), and I can see why. Inexperienced daughter of Leroidesanimaux was second in the Oak Leaf (Gr I), even though that represented only her second career start.<br /><br />Connie and Michael (4/1) earned a huge Beyer Speed Figure in her debut at Keeneland, getting 7f in 1:22 3/5 en route to a 7 3/4-length win and a 95 Beyer, but offers little value at that price and this would be a very tough task.<br /><br />Blind Luck is the best of the Californians and figures to be a huge factor.<br /><br />1. She Be Wild<br />2. Blind Luck<br />3. Always a Princess<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Filly & Mare Turf<br /><br /></span>This race sets up to be one of my potential 'bomb' races, meaning that I fully expect something to happen to really shake things up. The favorites - Forever Together (5/2), Magical Fantasy (3/1), Midday (4/1), and Pure Clan (5/1) - all have major problems (in my mind at least) that will make me think twice before using them.<br /><br />There figures to be a real duel on the front end, but instead of a speed duel, it'll be a bunch of riders not trying to take the lead. Visit (10/1) flashed a bit of speed in the Yellow Ribbon (Gr I) last out, and she also ran 4th in this race last year at 17/1, so the back class is there. She loses Gomez, but picks up Velazquez, plus she loves this course and excels at the distance. She'll figure.<br /><br />Same with Rutherienne (8/1). She hasn't missed the board since 2007, all in graded stakes. She doesn't look like a winner, though.<br /><br />Midday is my choice of the favorites - shows great form, is a Group I winner at the distance. She has some tactical speed and I just don't see many detriments.<br /><br />1. Midday<br />2. Rutherienne<br />3. Forever Together<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Filly & Mare Sprint </span><br /><br />Probably the race of the day...<br /><br />The Ventura/Informed Decision exacta box is probably the exacta lock of the event, as these two appears heads above their competition in every facet of the game. Consistency, speed, adaptability, affinity for synthetics, and a great record at the distance.<br /><br />Personally, I fancy Ventura. I think she's in better form and is more rested than Informed Decision, who's had a long and difficult campaign. I've heard nothing but rave reviews about how Ventura has looked, and this is a mare who's been running with some of the world's best thoroughbreds this year. Remember, she was only beaten a nose by Gio Ponti in the Kilroe (Gr I) back in March.<br /><br />1. Ventura<br />2. Informed Decision<br />3. Seventh Street<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Ladies' Classic<br /><br /></span>Favorites are Careless Jewel (2/1) and Music Note (9/5). Personally I don't like Careless Jewel much at all. I think she completely lacks class and has looked good beating bad horses, but this is a whole new league. I expect the wheels to come off here.<br /><br />Music Note appears the best of a very average crop, so I'll use her but not overly confident in it. Im more interested in the place/show horses. I think Proviso and Rainbow View both bounce off strong 'off the plane' efforts. Mushka isn't a fast horse, but she's in peak form and that's something that is very dangerous this time of the year.<br /><br />I find it hard to like Life is Sweet as she just continues running in the wrong direction in regard to her form, but I do kind of fancy Lethal Heat . The pace sets up for her, but she's just never been this good.<br /><br />Look out for Cocoa Beach. This is a track that suits her well and she likes the distance (3 for 5 lifetime, 100% ITM) and there is no Zenyatta in here for her to chase.<br /><br />1. Music Note<br />2. Mushka<br />3. Cocoa Beach<br /><br />Good luck on Friday! Will be back tomorrow night with some thoughts on the Friday results as well as Saturday's selections<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span></span></span></div></div>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-22374966703258171942009-10-19T17:07:00.000-07:002009-10-20T14:19:41.211-07:00Breeders' Cup Contenders (10/19/09)With the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships just a tantalizing 17 days away, I felt it would be pretty interesting (not to mention time consuming) to try to at least accumulate a very raw list of which thoroughbreds would be competing at Santa Anita. Here's what I learned -<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Breeders Cup Classic </span>(10f; 3yo +)<br /><br />Probable<br /><br />Awesome Gem (C. Dollase/A. Solis)<br />Colonel John (E. Harty/G. Gomez)<br />Einstein [Brz] (H. Pitts-Blasi/J. Leparoux)<br />Gio Ponti (C. Clement/R. Dominguez)<br />Macho Again (D. Stewart/R. Albarado)<br />Mastercraftsman [Ire] (A. O'Brien/J. Murtagh)<br />Mine That Bird (B. Woolley Jr./C. Borel)<br />Quality Road (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)<br />Richard's Kid (B. Baffert/V. Espinoza)<br />Rip Van Winkle [Ire] (A. O'Brien/J. Murtagh)<br />Summer Bird (T. Ice/K. Desormeaux)<br /><br />Possible<br /><br />Bullsbay (H. Motion/J. Rose)<br />Girolamo (S. Suroor/A. Garcia)<br />Regal Ransom (S. Suroor/R. Migliore)<br />Twice Over [GB] (H. Cecil/T. Queally)<br />Zenyatta (J. Shirreffs/M. Smith)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Breeders Cup Turf </span>(12f Turf; 3yo +)<br /><br />Probable<br /><br />Conduit [Ire] (M. Stoute/R. Moore)<br />Presious Passion (M. Hartmann/E. Trujillo)<br />Red Rocks [Ire] (B. Meehan/J. Castellano)<br />Spanish Moon (M. Stoute/R. Moore)<br /><br />Possible<br /><br />Ask [GB] (M. Soute/O. Peslier)<br />Dar Re Mi [GB] (J. Gosden/J. Fortune)<br />Spring House (J. Canani/A. Solis)<br />Vision d'Etat [Fr] (E. Libaud/O. Peslier)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic </span>(9f; 3yo +; Fillies & Mares)<br /><br />Probable<br /><br />Careless Jewel (J. Carroll/R. Landry)<br />Cocoa Beach [Chi] (S. Suroor/R. Dominguez)<br />Lethal Heat (B. Abrams/A. Solis)<br />Life is Sweet (J. Shirreffs/G. Gomez)<br />Mushka (W. Mott/K. Desormeaux)<br />Music Note (S. Suroor/R. Maragh)<br />Proviso [GB] (R. Frankel/R. Maragh)<br />Teamgeist (K. McPeek/C. Borel)<br /><br />Possible<br /><br />Icon Project (M. Wolfson/J. Leparoux)<br />Rainbow View (J. Gosden/J. Leparoux)<br />Zenyatta (J. Shirreffs/M. Smith)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Breeders' Cup Mile </span>(8f Turf; 3yo +)<br /><br />Probable<br /><br />Court Vision (R. Dutrow/R. Albarado)<br />Cowboy Cal (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)<br />Delegator [GB] (S. Suroor/L. Dettori)<br />Ferneley [Ire] (B. Cecil/R. Bejarano)<br />Gladitorious (S. Suroor/A. Ajtebi)<br />Goldikova [Ire] (F. Head/O. Peslier)<br />Justenuffhumor (K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia)<br />Karelian (G. Arnold/R. Maragh)<br />Rendezvous (J. Hollendorfer/J. Rosario)<br />Mr. Sidney (W. Mott/K. Desormeaux)<br />Whatsthescript [Ire] (J. Sadler/J. Rosario)<br />Zacinto [GB] (M. Stoute/R. Moore)<br /><br />Possible<br /><br />Diamondrella [GB] (A. Penna/R. Maragh)<br />Get Serious (J. Forbes/P. Fragoso)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Breeders' Cup Sprint </span>(6f; 3yo +)<br /><br />Probable<br /><br />Capt. Candyman Can (I. Wilkes/J. Castellano)<br />Cost of Freedom (J. Sadler/T. Baze)<br />Fatal Bullet (R. Baker/E. Da Silva)<br />Gayego (S. Suroor/G. Gomez)<br />Zensational (B. Baffert/V. Espinoza)<br /><br />Possible<br /><br />Crown of Thorns (R. Mandella/V. Espinoza)<br />Dancing in Silks (C. Gaines/J. Rosario)<br />Kodiak Kowboy (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan)<br />Munnings (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)<br />Pyro (S. Suroor/J. Velazquez)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf </span>(10f Turf; 3yo +; Fillies & Mares)<br /><br />Probable<br /><br />Forever Together (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux)<br />Magical Fantasy (P. Gallagher/A. Solis)<br />Midday [GB] (H. Cecil/T. Queally)<br />Pure Clan (R. Holthus/J. Leparoux)<br />Visit [GB] (R. Frankel/G. Gomez)<br /><br />Possible<br /><br />Dar Re Mi [GB] (J. Gosden/J. Fortune)<br />Diamondrella [GB] (A. Penna/R. Maragh)<br />Dynaforce (W. Mott/K. Desormeaux)<br />Rutherienne (C. Clement/A. Garcia)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Breeders' Cup Juvenile </span>(8.5f; 2yo)<br /><br />Probable<br /><br />Aikenite (T. Pletcher/A. Garcia)<br />Alfred Nobel [Ire] (A. O'Brien/J. Murtagh)<br />Beethoven [Ire] (A. O'Brien/R. Moore)<br />Bench the Judge (D. O'Neill/R. Santiago)<br />D'Funnybone (R. Dutrow/E. Prado)<br />Dave in Dixie (J. Sadler/J. Rosario)<br />Fist of Rage (K. McPeek/-)<br />Lookin at Lucky (B. Baffert/G. Gomez)<br />Noble's Promise (K. McPeek/W. Martinez)<br />Pulsion (P. Biancone/M. Smith)<br /><br />Possible<br /><br />Buzzword [GB] (S. Suroor/A. Ajtebi)<br />Gallant Gent (C. Lewis/M. Pedroza)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies </span>(8.5f; 2yo; Fillies)<br /><br />Probable<br /><br />Always a Princess (B. Baffert/G. Gomez)<br />Amen Hallelujah (R. Dutrow/R. Dominguez)<br />Beautician (K. McPeek/K. Desormeaux)<br />Biofuel (R. Baker/E. Da Silva)<br />Blind Luck (J. Hollendorfer/T. Baze)<br />Connie and Mack (K. McPeek/R. Albarado)<br />Devil May Care (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)<br />Negligee (J. Terranova/R. Maragh)<br />She Be Wild (W. Catalano/G. Gomez)<br /><br />Possible<br /><br />Bay to Bay (B. Lynch/D. Clark)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile </span>(8.3f; 3yo +)<br /><br />Probable<br /><br />Cherokee Artist (H. Motion/J. Rose)<br />Chocolate Candy (J. Hollendorfer/V. Espinoza)<br />Crown of Thorns (R. Mandella/V. Espinoza)<br />El Gato Malo (C. Dollase/D. Flores)<br />Famous Name [GB] (D. Weld/P. Smullen)<br />Furthest Land (M. Maker/G. Gomez)<br />Midshipman (S. Suroor/R. Migliore)<br />Monzante (M. Mitchell/J. Rosario)<br />Neko Bay (J. Shirreffs/M. Smith)<br />Square Eddie (D. O'Neill/R. Bejarano)<br /><br />Possible<br /><br />Ball Four (P. Biancone/J. Talamo)<br />Girolamo (S. Suroor/A. Garcia)<br />Informed (D. O'Neill/M. Baze)<br />Mambo Meister (P. Gleaves/M. Cruz)<br />Regal Ransom (S. Suroor/R. Migliore)<br />Teide (D. Condilenios/C. Hoverson)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf </span>(8f Turf; 2yo)<br /><br />Probable<br /><br />Becky's Kitten (W. Ward/J. Leparoux)<br />Bridgetown (K. McPeek/R. Landry)<br />Fantastico Roberto (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)<br />Interactif (T. Pletcher/K. Desormeaux)<br />Summer Movie (A. Sherman/-)<br />Zip Quick (P. Biancone/-)<br /><br />Possible<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br />Buzzword [GB] (S. Suroor/A. Ajtebi)<br />Gallant Gent (C. Lewis/M. Pedroza)<br />Kera's Kitten (M. Maker/J. Leparoux)<br />William's Kitten (M. Maker/V. Lebron)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint </span>(7f; 3yo +; Fillies & Mares)<br /><br />Probable<br /><br />Evita Argentina (J. Sadler/J. Rosario)<br />Indian Blessing (B. Baffert/J. Velazquez)<br />Informed Decision (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux)<br />Sara Louise (S. Suroor/E. Prado)<br />Seventh Street (S. Suroor/R. Maragh)<br />SweetHearth (A. De <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span>Royer-Dupre/G. Mosse)<br />Ventura (R. Frankel/G. Gomez)<br /><br />Possible<br /><br />Game Face (T. Pletcher/E. Prado)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Breeders' Cup Marathon </span>(14f; 3yo +)<br /><br />Probable<br /><br />Black Astor (L. Lewis/J. Talamo)<br />Father Time [GB] (H. Cecil/J. Spencer)<br />Nite Light (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)<br />Rising Moon (R. Dutrow/K. Desormeaux)<br />Unusual Suspect (B. Abrams/A. Quinonez)<br /><br />Possible<br /><br />Bold Chieftain (W. Morey/R. Baze)<br />Cloudy's Knight (J. Sheppard/R. Homeister)<br />Mastery [GB] (S. Suroor/T. Durcan)<br />Muhannak [Ire] (R. Beckett/P. Smullen)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf </span>(8f Turf; 2yo; Fillies)<br /><br />Probable<br /><br />House of Grace (K. McPeek/M. Luzzi)<br />Smart Seattle (H. Motion/J. Rose)<br /><br />Possible<br /><br />Bay to Bay (B. Lynch/D. Clark)<br />Full Mandate [Ire] (R. Hannon/M. Kinane)<br />Hibaayeb [GB] (C. Brittain/N. Callan)<br />Lisa's Kitten (M. Maker/J. Leparoux)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint </span>(6.5f Turf; 3yo +)<br /><br />Probable<br /><br />California Flag (B. Koriner/J. Talamo)<br />Cannonball (W. Ward/E. Trujillo)<br />Desert Code (D. Hofmans/R. Migliore)<br />Fleeting Spirit [Ire] (J. Noseda/T. Queally)<br />Get Funky (J. Sadler/J. Valdivia)<br />Gotta Have Her (J. Sahadi/T. Baze)<br />Lethal Heat (B. Abrams/A. Solis)<br />Noble Court (J. Sadler/J. Rosario)<br />Silver Timber (C. Brown/J. Leparoux)<br /><br />Possible<br /><br />Chamberlain Bridge (B. Calhoun/J. Theriot)<br />Dancing in Silks (C. Gaines/J. Rosario)<br />Diamondrella [GB] (A. Penna/R. Maragh)<br />Mr. Nightlinger (B. Calhoun/J. Theriot)<br />Storm Treasure (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan)<br />Total Gallery [Ire] (J. Moore/J. Murtagh)<br />Yankee Injunuity (J. McMullen/E. Baird)<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-style: italic;"></span></span></span></span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-32272483046254603372009-10-02T13:16:00.000-07:002009-10-02T14:00:02.203-07:00NYRA's Super Saturday<span style="font-family: verdana;font-size:85%;" ><span style="font-size:100%;">Fans are understandably somewhat frustrated at some of the field sizes that NYRA attracted for its "Super Saturday" card, but the blame settles far from the hard-working folks in New York. Can you begin to imagine that frustration that ensued when Andrew Rosen broke the news to them that Icon Project, quite possibly the best Distaffer in the East, was going to pass on the Beldame (Gr I) for the opportunity to particpate in the Spinster (Gr I) at Keeneland, instead? Entries for this race were taken on October 1, and until the day prior, Icon Project was considered to be a lock to run at Belmont. I can't blame other owners/trainers for not wanting to run their Distaff contenders against the powerful duo of Icon Project and Music Note, and once Icon Project opted out, it was really far too late to reroute horses to the Belmont. <br /><br />I've heard some complaints about the field size as well, but again I sympathize with the folks at NYRA on that one. If I was forced to rank the Top 5 North American-based sprinters right now, I'd name for you Zensational, Fabulous Strike, Munnings, Fatal Bullet, and Kodiak Kowboy, in no particular order. So I guess I can just see that it's pretty tough to attract horses to run against 3 of the top 5. <br /><br />But anyway, enough of that, let's move on to the handicapping -<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Beldame</span><br /><br />1. Captain's Lover (SaF) [2/1] - First half of the Team Valor entry is a Gr I winner in her native South Africa and was a Gr III winner in France before coming to the States. Primarily a turf specialist, her 1-for-1 record on the dirt comes with a bold asterisk - she won the 200k Matchmaker at Monmouth back on Haskell Day when that race came off-the-turf and she outclassed a field of fellow turf specialists. Beyer came back quite pedestrian, only a 76, and the final time was more than 4 seconds slower than it took Rachel Alexandra to take care of things in the Haskell. Retains the services of Velazquez, but she'd be a surprise.<br /><br />1a. Unbridled Belle [2/1] - Six year old mare seems to move backward each time she sets foot on the track, and it's becoming almost difficult to watch. Beat Indian Vale and Ginger Punch in this race back in 2007, but we've slowly watched her form unravel since. Added a Gr III score to her credit back in June after she failed to get in foal to A.P. Indy, but was last seen bringing up the rear in the Personal Ensign (Gr I), beaten 42-lengths by Icon Project. I feel as if she's achieved that rare status where just about everyone not named Suroor and Mohammed would be thrilled to see her win (joining horses like Better Talk Now, Perfect Drift, and The Tin Man at that level), but it's just not going to happen. <br /><br />2. Music Note [2/5] - Spent the last 10 minutes trying to build a case against her, and I just can't see it. 4-for-6 at Belmont, 2-for-3 at the distance, 2-for-3 over off going, and keep in mind that she fired off a 107 Beyer last out indicating that she's back. Problem for her foes here is that the 'B game' of this 4-time Grade I winner probably gets the job done by open lengths. Won the Gr I Gazelle last year at this distance over a wet track by 8 1/2-lengths. Be thankful if you can get 2/5, but she has 1/9 written all over her, and for good reason.<br /><br />3. Copper State [8/1] - Sneaky Asmussen runner is twice Grade I placed and I'd have never guessed that before seeing her past performances. Granted those races came last summer, but the back class is certainly here. Fell out of form last fall and it's taken Asmussen a while to get her back to her peak level, but I think she's sitting on a strong effort. Took a deep strong in class last out to win the Central Iowa Stakes at Prairie Meadows, but was rewarded with a 92 Beyer and I like the confidence boost, being that was her first win since late 2007. Doesn't seem to be near the class of Music Note, but looks to be runner-up material.<br /><br />4. With Flying Colors [20/1] - Last minute entrant from the Pletcher barn is really up against it in this spot. Daughter of A.P. Indy is just 2-for-10 lifetime and made her graded debut last time when 6th in the Personal Ensign (Gr I) at 19/1. Career high Beyer is only 80, and while she has won over an off-track at Belmont, I can't see her getting the pace to run at here.<br /><br />***<br /><br />1. Music Note<br />2. Copper State<br />3. Captain's Lover <br /><br />***<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Vosburgh</span><br /><br />1. Go Go Shoot [6/1] - Bruce Levine-trained son of Songandaprayer has been a bit two-faced in 2009. Gives the impression that he's really ready to break out and make a name for himself in this division, but other times looks more suited for ungraded stakes at Delaware and Monmouth. Blazed to 109 BSF's at Saratoga and Delaware earlier this year when he ran 2nd to Fabulous Strike in the Vanderbilt (Gr II) and won the Longfellow Stakes by 9 1/2-length, but regressed off the latter effort to be all out to win the Mr Prospector at Monmouth by only 1/2-length. Has extremely quick gate speed, but it's tough to ask for him to run better than he did in the Vanderbilt when he still wasn't good enough to knock off Fabulous Strike.<br /><br />2. Peace Chant [15/1] - Probably the odd-man out in this group, he lacks the credentials of his competitors and could do no better than 10th last out in the Forego (Gr I) at Saratoga. <br /><br />3. Munnings [7/2] - Intriguing entrant from the Pletcher barn in that the you can make a case for quite a few of his races in 2009 to be toss-outs. Throwing out his Haskell due to the distance and probably drawing a line through his King's Bishop because I hate the trip he got. Not at all convinced this son of Speightstown likes a wet track, but I think he gets the perfect set-up in here if Go Go Shoot and Fabulous Strike decide to go at it early. He's been great at Belmont and some consider him a 7f race, but I don't think that's fair as he hasn't raced at 6f but once in his career, and it resulted in a maiden win. At this point I'm completely torn on him - on a fast track he'd be my pick, but not as certain if it comes up sloppy.<br /><br />4. Kodiak Kowboy [3/1] - Returns to the care of Asmussen as Larry Jones slowly weans his stable, but doubt the trainer change has a huge effect on his form. While I really consider him to be more of a 7f/8f type, he's never missed the board going 6 furlongs (5 tries) and while he's the type of horse that is more consistent than flashy, he does show his share of large Beyer figures (108, 106 x3, 104, 102 x2). He closed well to finish 3rd in this race last year, beaten just 3/4-length by Black Seventeen and Fabulous Strike, and enters off a solid 2nd place finish to Pyro in the Forego (Gr I). Nearly certain he'll be coming from far back, but consider he's 0-for-4 on a wet track, however he's run a 106 Beyer on a wet track, so I wouldn't be too quick to say he hates it. Problem I see is that there are about 3 horses in this race capable of running a 110+ Beyer and he's stuck in the 104-106 range. <br /><br />5. Fabulous Strike [Even] - One of the fastest horses of his generation, Fabulous Strike has won 14-of-23 races in his lifetime, including 11-or-16 at this distance and 4-of-6 at Belmont. Toss out his 5th place finish over the synthetic in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (Gr I) last year, and he's hit the exacta in 9 straight races. Race record is spattered with gaudy Beyer figures - 119, 118, 115, 114, 113, 112, and 111 - and even at 6, he's still showing capable of putting up a solid number. Earned a 112 last time when he won the Gr II Vanderbilt, and a 111 prior to that when he took the Gr II True North. Having a hard time finding a scenario that keeps him out of the exacta.<br /><br />***<br /><br />1. Kodiak Kowboy<br />2. Fabulous Strike<br />3. Munnings<br /><br />***<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Flower Bowl</span><br /><br />1. Carribean Sunset (Ire) [5/2] - Entry comes in a bit lower on the morning-line that I'd have hoped, but me thinks you're getting a nice 1-2 punch with this duo. European Group III winner has yet to get things done at the graded level in the States, but she gives the impression that she'll get things done anytime now. Nearly knocked off defending champ Forever Together two back in the Diana (Gr I), and just missed by a length last out in the Palomar 'Cap (Gr II) at DelMar. Lone win Stateside came in a 200k ungraded stakes at Philly Park going 8.5f. Beyers aren't bad, but distance is an unknown, but it's tough to turn your back on Dominguez in here. <br /><br />1a. Beauty O' Gwaun (Ire) [5/2] - 3yo daughter of Rainbow Quest looked to be on the fast track to something special earlier this year when she took the Group III Blue Wind Stakes in Ireland at second asking, but a 10th place finish in the Irish Oaks (Gr I) and a 3rd in the Give Thanks Stakes (Gr III) have curtailed her improvement. Clement does well with those he gets for the first time from Europe, and she adds blinkers and Lasix, but needed to show me something more before backing her in this spot. With Dominguez named on both, I'm thinking that Carribean Sunset might be their top pick to run, and Beauty O'Gwaun their backup if it comes up soft.<br /><br />2. Leamington [10/1] - Probable frontrunner made her stakes debut a winning one last out when she took the restricted Voodoo Dancer at Saratoga by 1 1/4-lengths for Graham Motion. Earned a 96 Beyer for that effort, which was her second straight victory, and gives her connections the opportunity to try a race like this. Daughter of Pleasant Tap is out of a Storm Cat mare, so I like her to get the distance, but just not sure she wants the soft turf. Failed miserably on the turf over in Europe and was limited to running over the polytrack there, and has yet to meet a wet turf course here. If it comes up firm, she could be an outside consideration, but I toss her if it rains, as expected to.<br /><br />3. Pure Clan [3/1] - Alright, not taking my chance with her this time. Thought she was bound for improvement as a 4yo, but hasn't really stepped up her game at all from her 3yo form. Boasts just a Gr III score this year, and finished 3rd last time as the 3/2 fave in the Beverly D (Gr I) at Arlington. Does her running from way back, and isn't a half bad running over this distance, but having difficulty backing a filly that's just 1 for her last 5. She'll get herself involved late - that's nearly certain - but just not sure she has it in her to get this thing done. Career high turf Beyer of 96 in 9 tries probably isn't good enough.<br /><br />4. Dynaforce [7/2] - Most auspicious morning-line 3rd choice as she won this race last year by 4-lengths, won the Gr I Beverly D last out, and is 3-2-1-0 over wet turf courses in the United States. It was a long road back to top form for this 6yo daughter of Dynaformer - she lost two straight to start the year before her Bev D score, and still doesn't appear to be at the level she was last year. Expecting her to go off favored in this spot, but I'm hesitant to single her in any multi-race wager. <br /><br />5. Criticism (GB) [8/1] - Speedy Darley-bred daughter of Machiavellian won 4-of-5 at one point in the States, but has lost two straight and quickly become forgotten in this division. Won two Gr II races and two Gr III's between the end of last year and the beginning of 2009 for Albertrani, but failed in her lone Gr I try, which came last out in the Diana at Saratoga. Doesn't seem to fancy a wet turf course, and thinking she's in over her head in this spot.<br /><br />6. Queen of Hearts [15/1] - Longest shot on the board for a reason, her graded debut last out in the Glens Falls (Gr III) resulted in a 3rd place finish behind the lightly regarded Mushka, and while beaten just 1 1/4-lengths, there's not a ton to love. Daughter of Thunder Gulch didn't seem to fancy a soft track last year, but she's a different filly these days, even if just slightly. Add a low-percentage jockey in Jose Espinoza, and it's hard to make a case for her. <br /><br />7. Moneycantbuymelove (Ire) [4/1] - 3yo daughter of Pivotal ships in from Great Britain after a strong performance in the Gr I Nassau at Goodwood, and that makes her my choice in here. A listed stakes winner at the distance, she came in 3rd behind potential Breeders' Cup runners Midday and Rainbow View in the Nassau, and earned a Racing Post speed rating of 115 for that effort. Regular rider Jamie Spencer makes the trip over to ride, and she adds Lasix for the first time in her career. Also have to give her credit for passing the vast majority of her 18 rivals two back in a stakes at Ascot as she rallied from far back to take that one by 2-lengths. <br /><br />***<br /><br />1. Moneycantbuymelove (Ire)<br />2. Pure Clan<br />3. Dynaforce<br /><br />***<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational</span><br /><br />1. Gio Ponti [6/5] - Son of Tale of the Cat has gone from a simple Gr II winner in 2008 to one of the world's top performers in 2009. A winner of four straight Grade I races, Gio Ponti is without question, the best turf horse in the United States. He handled the dominant mare Ventura in the Frank Kilroe (Gr I), he handled a 12 horse field in the Manhattan (Gr I), he dominated going 11f in the Man O War (Gr I), and he took on some solid Europeans when winning the Arlington Million (Gr I). 12 furlongs is an unknown, but this is a horse that earned a 105 Beyer going 11f and given his tactical speed and turn of foot, I don't see it being a problem. Arguably his top two performances of the year came over wet ground, and he's a most deserving favorite. Play against him at your own peril.<br /><br />1a. Winchester [6/5] - A lot of work has gone into Winchester, and it's almost hard to believe this is the same horse that won the Secretariat Stakes (Gr I) last year for Dermot Weld, and earned a 106 Beyer for that race. He's lost 4 straight races, but finally showed a bit of interest last out when 2nd to Grand Couturier in the Bowling Green (Gr II). I still think he's got room for improvement, but not sure if it'll come in this race. He's only entered in the instance if the turf comes up too bad, and will likely scratch on behalf of his stablemate.<br /><br />2. Interpatation [30/1] - Discussing the chances of this 7yo gelding is getting a bit monotonous, as he really has no chance. Picked up the pieces to nab 2nd in this race last year, but has missed the board in 6 tries since and although he adds Robby Albarado, he'd be nothing short of a shock. <br /><br />3. Al Khali [12/1] - Wasn't shocked to see him get the job done last out against 3yos in the Gr III Saranac at Saratoga, and it's very obvious he's found a home on the turf under Bill Mott's care. Sputtered a bit trying to find his way with Pletcher, but now that Mott is pushing the buttons, he seems to be headed in the right direction. This is an extremely tough task for the 3yo son of Medaglia d'Oro, and expecting him to be better next year than he is now. Wouldn't mind getting a play on him for the 2010 future bet of this race, but not very enticing this year. <br /><br />4. Telling [10/1] - Shocked the Saratoga faithful at 33/1 when he scored the upset over Better Talk Now and Brass Hat in the Gr I Sword Dancer on August 15, and trainer Steve Hobby is expecting more of the same from this son of A.P. Indy on Saturday. Knows this horse loves the 12f distance and has handled a wet turf going before. Can't fault the bettors for looking elsewhere, he's not exactly a household name, but at 10/1 he looks like a solid value play. <br /><br />5. Musketier (Ger) [12/1] - Connections of this frontrunner will be begging Mother Nature to unleash her wrath in order to cause Presious Passion to scratch and give this one a pretty easy lead. This Roger Attfield trainee has turned into a different horse ever since they started putting him on the lead, and even scored a Gr III score at this distance three back at Woodbine in the Singspiel on June 21. Held off all but Gio Ponti two back in the Gr I Man O War, but failed miserably last out going this distance in the Gr I Sword Dancer. Having a tough time backing him off that effort.<br /><br />6. Ready's Echo [12/1] - Placement in here indicates that Pletcher still isn't just quite sure what to do with this one. This son of More Than Ready is a bit of a jack-of-all-trades, having run 3rd in the 2008 Belmont Stakes (Gr I), 3rd in the 2009 Forego (Gr I), 3rd in the 2008 Jamaica 'Cap (Gr II) on the turf, and is a two-time winner on synthetic surfaces. This will be his first time trying 12f, which seems a bit further than he wants to go, and even with Velazquez up, he's way up against it in this spot. <br /><br />7. Presious Passion [6/1] - Incredibly speedy son of Royal Anthem has won 3 graded stakes in 2009, including the United Nations (Gr I) two back at Monmouth. Famously known for his ability to open up on the field by open lengths early, but also has the fortitude to hold them off late. Forecast doesn't seem to agree with this one, however, and the trainer indicates that he'll scratch if the course comes up wet. <br /><br />8. Grand Couturier (GB) [5/2] - Took trainer Rob Ribaudo a long time to get this one back into top form, in fact he ran 5th in 3 straight to start his 2009 campaign, but got the job done last out in the Gr II Bowling Green over this course on September 13. This is a horse that absolutely loves an off going, having won 3 of his last 4 over turf courses listed less than firm. Won this race last year by 10 1/4-lengths, earning a 112 Beyer figure, and has won 5-of-10 going the distance. Gio Ponti seems formidable, but the pieces may be in order for this one to run huge. <br /><br />***<br /><br />1. Gio Ponti<br />2. Telling<br />3. Grand Couturier (GB)<br /><br />***<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Jockey Club Gold Cup</span><br /><br />1. Sette E Mezzo [12/1] - Son of Dynaformer has done well to carve a niche for himself on the turf, earning a Gr II placing last out, but wheels back onto the dirt for the first time since his debut at Gulfstream Park in March 2008 (he ran 3rd that day, beaten nearly 7 lengths). This one gets a big boost in picking up Ramon Dominguez, but having a tough time seeing him as anything but illogical in this spot. Has never broken the 100 Beyer plateau and will need to run the race of his life to even matter. <br /><br />2. Macho Again [7/2] - The thinking of this handicapper is that if you can get this horse at this price, run to the windows. Once a perfect picture of inconsistency, Macho Again has put together three straight top performances at this level, and gives the indication that Dallas Stewart has worked him past his Jekyll and Hyde moments. Nearly ran down Rachel Alexandra in the Gr I Woodward last out, and prior to that just missed to Bullsbay in the Gr I Whitney. His 2009 resume includes scores in the Gr I Stephen Foster and the Gr II New Orleans 'Cap, and shows Beyers of 109, 105, and 100 in his last 3. Robby Albarado has built a strong rapport with this one, and Macho Again is 2-for-2 on wet tracks. Hasn't tried this distance since last year's Travers, but gives every indication that 10f is very doable. The pick.<br /><br />3. Summer Bird [2/1] - Getting the feeling that he's becoming a bit overrated, and his 2/1 favoritism here seems to evidence that. Hard to deny his credentials, but still have some concerns with him. Has run 7 times since March 1 and the competition keeps getting tougher and tougher. Don't want to come off as too pessimistic, but have to wonder how much he's got left in the tank. If he doesn't falter here, he'll be quickly ascending to Curlin-level, which is probably tougher than it appears to do. Doesn't mind a sloppy track and retains Desormeaux, but trying older for the first time is no cakewalk. He'll be tested in this spot more than he's ever tested before, and I'm looking elsewhere for my top choice.<br /><br />4. Tizway [15/1] - H. James Bond trained son of Tiznow could find himself alone on a pretty easy lead, but either way, he'll have some very talented horses breathing down his neck. Has never gone this far, and ran 4th in the Whitney (Gr I) in his lone graded try. Has been regularly drilling 6f over the Saratoga training track, and his performance will depend on how much Maragh can slow things down early. Tough to be overly optimistic, but the barn is pretty hot and the trainer/jockey combo fire at a huge clip. Wouldn't hurt to have him in your exotics. <br /><br />5. Asiatic Boy (Arg) [8/1] - Solid son of Argentinian sire Not for Sale adds blinkers after a tough 4th place finish to Rachel Alexandra in the Gr I Woodward at Saratoga. Didn't exactly have the easiest trip that day, and his back class shows a pair of runner-up performances in graded stakes in this country - the Gr I Stephen Foster and the Gr II Suburban. Also won the Gr II Maktoum Challenge Round III earlier this year. Has hit the exacta in 3-of-4 tries going this distance, but I'm having a hard time loving this one in this spot.<br /><br />6. Dry Martini [8/1] - Connections are incredibly high on this son of Slew Gin Fizz, even with his 5th place finish in the Gr I Whitney last out in mind. Retains the services of Prado, but not sure that's a great thing at the moment - Edgar is just 2-for-51 (4%) at the current Belmont meet, and is winning with just 12% on the year. This one won the Suburban (Gr II) two back, but I guess I'm missing the smoking gun that the connections are leaning on.<br /><br />7. Quality Road [5/2] - Speedy son of Elusive Quality ran an absolute clunker last out in the Travers (Gr I) yet still managed 3rd in a race that was probably way too much, way too soon for him. Even tough sons of Elusive Quality have scored going 10f, I still don't think it's false to say that might not be their ideal distance. It's actually quite farfetched to say that since Smarty Jones and Raven's Pass were able to run a distance, that any other son of Elusive Quality should be able to do the same. Tough to deny his raw speed, but leaning toward 10f being a bit much for him. Either way, he should get a better trip in here than he did in the Travers and is still extremely dangerous. <br /><br />***<br /><br />1. Macho Again<br />2. Asiatic Boy<br />3. Summer Bird<br /><br /></span></span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-9517449365139081542009-09-27T08:30:00.000-07:002009-09-27T13:28:07.835-07:00I'll Trade You My Funny Cide for Your Jean Cruguet<span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="font-size:85%;">Trading cards and sports. An age-old tradition that has captivated the minds and wallets of collectors since the late 1880's, when small images of baseball players were placed in packs of cigarettes to boost sales. Most are probably familiar with these type of cards, most notably the 1909 T-206 Honus Waner. The T-206 Wagner is regarded as the most expensive and well-known trading card of all-time, and authentic versions of this incredibly rare card (only between 50-200 ever distributed to the public) routinely sell at auction for upwards of $750,000. But what you probably didn't know is that cards depicting your favorite horses and jockeys have been around for just as long.<br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;">While baseball cards were growing in popularity in the United States, cards commemorating top riders and owners were taking off across the Atlantic in Great Britain. This set, produced in 1906 by Ogdens, feature a relatively inexpensive market value - </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span id="v4-11" class="vi-is1-prcp">£2.70 (approx. $4.80US) a piece - and can generally be found on eBay and other popular collectible/auction websites. A subsequent set, produced in 1907 by the same company, was the first to portray thoroughbred legends, and included Europe's great horses from the turn-of-the-century including Cicero, Galopin, Diamond Jubilee, and Pretty Polly, amongst others. Similar cards were produced in Australia around the same time. Over the next few decades, Odgens produced similar cards in Europe, 25 and 50 card sets showcasing the winners of certain races and 'prominent racehorses of the present day.' An excellent 'Guide' (complete with pictures) to racing trading cards (1888-1933) has been created by eBay user <span style="font-style: italic;">creamofcards </span>and can be found <a href="http://reviews.ebay.com/Old-Horse-Racing-Cards-Cigarette-cards-1880s-1930s_W0QQugidZ10000000001790363">here</a>.<br /><br />As the popularity of cigarette-type cards dwindled, as did the number of horse racing-related cards. Several small sets of cards were produced over the next couple of decades, with nothing really achieving much collectability in the market.<br /><br />Sportscaster, a mail-order-only sports card company produced a 48-card set of horse racing cards that encompassed all facets of horse racing, from racetracks to jockeys to famous horses. The full 48 card checklist and pictures of each card can be found <a href="http://www.sportscastercards.com/sports.php?function=search&table_name=sports&page=0&where_clause=category%3D%27Horse+Racing%27">here</a>. The cards, produced from 1977-1979 feature thoroughbred staples such as Secretariat, Churchill Downs, Willie Shoemaker, the All-American Futurity, the Hambleton, and the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. These cards were part of a larger set of 2,184 cards that covered every sport from baseball and football to bowling and sand yachting.<br /><br />In 1991, the Jockey Guild produced a set of 220 cards called 'Jockey Star Cards.' The cards featured cards of many top riders, including Jerry Bailey, Ron Turcotte, Eddie Arcaro, Pat Day, Laffit Pincay, and Julie Krone, as well as your favorite local riders, such as Francisco Torres, Paul Toscano, Randy Meier, Tim Doocy, and Joe Judice. These cards were the closest in similarity to date of mainstream baseball, football, hockey, and basketball cards produced by industry megapowers like Topps, Bowman, and Upper Deck. These cards were marketed as being great for autographs and to get to know the riders better, but only managed minimal retail success. Complete 220-card sets are readily available on eBay for under $10. A full checklist can be found <a href="http://www.nslists.com/jockey91.htm">here</a> and an image <a href="http://www.geocities.com/Colosseum/Loge/8074/1991.jpg">here</a>. Jockey Star Cards were produced anually through 1998 with minimal success, but they did gain a small niche of the trading card market and offered racing fans a rare collectable.<br /><br />As the trading card industry has constantly evolved, companies are constantly looking for ways to revamp and further differentiate their products. By the mid/late-1990s, companies were introducing 'autograph cards' and 'jersey cards' to the market. Autograph cards were randomly inserted into packs of cards at an extremely rare rate (perhaps 1 card per every 250+ packs) and featured cards hand-signed by the player depicted. Jersey cards featured swatches of actual game-worn jerseys. Next to come where cards that featured pieces of game-used baseballs/footballs, pads, and anything else conceivable. Heck, in 2001 Topps created a John F. Kennedy card with an actual piece of the Berlin Wall in it (<a href="http://ny-image1.etsy.com/il_430xN.83226505.jpg">photo here</a>)!<br /><br />What does this all have to do with horse racing? Well, with the increased amount of differentiation sought by manufacturers, some have began to create 'Sports Legends' sets, and in 2008 the Donruss company introduced its Sports Legends series. Amongst the set were cards featuring the jockeys of the last three Triple Crown winners - Steve Cauthen, Jean Cruguet, and Ron Turcotte. The set, which prides itself on bringing collectors autograph and jersey cards, featured hand-signed cards of that trio (available on ebay for no more than $5 each before shipping), as well as a Cauthen card that features an authentic piece of race-worn silks, and a rarer card that features the signatures of all 3 riders.<br /><br />Images can be found here -<br /><br /><a href="http://i698.photobucket.com/albums/vv344/dustino140/Miscellaneous/Misc%20Certified%20Autographs/Cauthen.jpg?t=1254081071">Steve Cauthen Autograph Card</a> (individually numbered out of 1,236)<br /><br /><a href="http://i698.photobucket.com/albums/vv344/dustino140/Miscellaneous/Misc%20Certified%20Autographs/Cruguet.jpg?t=1254081138">Jean Cruguet Autograph Card</a> (individually numbered out of 1,103)<br /><br /><a href="http://i698.photobucket.com/albums/vv344/dustino140/Miscellaneous/Misc%20Certified%20Autographs/scan0135.jpg?t=1254081180">Ron Turcotte Autograph Card</a> (individually numbered out of 1,370)<br /><br /><a href="http://i698.photobucket.com/albums/vv344/dustino140/Miscellaneous/Misc%20Memorabilia%20Cards/Cauthen1.jpg?t=1254081340">Steve Cauthen Race-Worn Silks Card</a> (individually numbered out of 500)<br /><br />So how does a company one-up that for racing fans? The Upper Deck Card Company figured it out. As part of its recently introduced 'Goodwin Champions' set, the company has inserted a subset of three very rare cards that should be well received by racing fans. The subset, 'Thoroughbred Hair Cuts' features an actual lock of hair of 3 recent American thoroughbred superstars - Afleet Alex, Funny Cide, and Smarty Jones. The cards, which are inserted at a rate of approximately one per case (a case being 12 hobby boxes, approx. retail price for a case is $899.99). Redemption cards are available on eBay for upwards of $50. <br /><br /><a href="http://i265.photobucket.com/albums/ii233/mikesilvia/afleet-alex-horse-hair-card.jpg">Afleet Alex Hair Card</a><br /><br /><a href="http://i265.photobucket.com/albums/ii233/mikesilvia/smart-jones-horse-hair-card.jpg">Smarty Jones Hair Card</a><br /><br />So where does the industry go from here? Personally, I'm not sure, but it's extremely exciting to see horse racing featured by national companies and in collectible formats. <br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span id="v4-11" class="vi-is1-prcp"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style=";font-family:verdana;font-size:85%;" > </span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-53369291387395702232009-08-12T10:34:00.000-07:002009-08-12T11:00:28.586-07:00Hats off to Bernardini<span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">It's tough to feel bad for a horse that earned more than $3,000,000 in his career, won some of the most elite races in the country, and comes from a family of some of the most elite thoroughbreds that the world has ever seen. Yet a lof of the time, I do find myself feeling bad for Bernardini. <br /><br />Bred to be a superstar, Bernardini's sire is A.P. Indy, a dominating force in the breeding industry. His progeny has earned more than $100,000,000 on the racetrack, and is littered with champions and Grade 1 winners. Bernardini's dam, Cara Rafaela, competed in my of the most sought after races for fillies and mares, including the Kentucky Oaks, Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, Ashland Stakes, Santa Anita Oaks, Hollywood Starlet, Mother Goose Stakes, and the Alcibiades Stakes. While she only won 4 of 24 lifetimes starts, she ran 2nd or 3rd in each of the prestigious races listed above. <br /><br />On the racetrack, Bernardini was an absolute monster. Between March and October of 2006, Bernardini didn't lose. He competed in races like the Preakness, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Travers, and Jim Dandy, and he won them all in the eastiest of fashion. The prohibitive favorite (as well as the centerpiece of the event's marketing campaign) for the end-of-the-year championship Breeders' Cup Classic, Bernardini did what many thought was unthinkable for the spectacular colt - he lost. He opened up a clear lead at the top of the stretch, but was caught and passed by a colt named Invasor. <br /><br />Bernardini was retired after the race. Unfortunately for his legacy, it doesn't seem that he'll ever live down losing the Classic to Invasor. One of the most talented horses that this blogger has ever seen, Bernardini has instead become the butt of some jokes and the poster-child of what happens when a talented 3yo faces older horses. Fair? Who knows. I definitely think that he had all the potential in the world and for whatever reason just didn't show it that day. <br /><br />This Monday and Tuesday, Fasig-Tipton hosted its Saratoga Select Yearlings sale in Saratoga Springs, NY, and Bernardini couldn't be off to a better start as a stallion. Over those two days alone, Bernardini had yearlings sell for $1,300,000, $1,200,000, $1,000,000, $750,000, $700,000, $320,000, $300,000, $250,000, and $230,000. Well done, 'Dini!<br /></span></span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-82027789185617714252009-07-25T15:33:00.000-07:002009-07-25T16:25:59.948-07:00My Plea to Pittsburghers<span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family:arial;"><span style="font-size:100%;">First, I'd like to apologize to my reader (if I've even got one left at this point) for being away from this blog for so long. I'm still passionately following the 'Sport of Kings' as if it were my first born's Little League team - I just don't haven't had the urge to share my opinions with the world. Since we last communicated, I've jumped into the worlds of post-graduate life, online wagering, and Twitter, however more on those at a later date.<br /><br />My reason for writing today is to ask something of you. Now, I'd like to start off by saying I hate asking anything of anybody - be it a ride somewhere, a day off work, or even just an extra side of ranch dressing with my french fries - you get the picture. I hate putting others out. But I feel my plea to you today is different. This is something that I feel so passionate about, and something that I KNOW you'll have a good time doing, that I guarantee it'll be worth your time. Next Saturday, August 1, an athlete at the pinnacle of his sport will be competing against his peers at a venue less than an hour outside of downtown Pittsburgh...and I'm guessing you know nothing about it.<br /><br />Mine That Bird is his name, and he's obviously not a human being, but an animal. A thoroughbred racehorse, to be exact. But before you click away from this page, just hear me out for a few moments. If what I'm asking doesn't sound like your cup of tea, what exactly have you lost by reading? Exactly - nothing. I'm confident in saying that you've heard of the Kentucky Derby - "The Run for the Roses," "The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports" - and are aware of all the glitz and glamour that goes along with it. Held anually on the First Saturday in May for well over a century, the Kentucky Derby brings together the best 20 three-year-old thoroughbreds in the country to compete for a $2,000,000 prize, a blanket of roses, and instant notoriety. It's the Super Bowl, World Series, Stanley Cup Finals, Daytona 500, and Masters of horse racing, all wrapped up in one 2-minute race. This year, the winner of the Kentucky Derby was a diminutive gelding named Mine That Bird, and next Saturday Mine That Bird will become the first Kentucky Derby winner to compete in the state of West Virginia.<br /><br />Now I know what you're thinking, 'I'm not driving to West Virginia to watch some silly horse run.' But I can assure you, it's more than that. The race will be held at the Mountaineer Racetrack and Gaming Resort, which according to Google Maps, is just 54 minutes from downtown. So distance shouldn't be too big of a concern. But what about costs? Well, you've got parking. That's free. And admission. Also free. Concessions must be through the roof, right? It's cheaper than going to a Pirates game. How about betting? There's absolutely no obligation to bet one horse race, pull one slot, or play one hand of blackjack. So essentially what I'm saying is that this can cost you a little as a few gallons of gasoline. And the day isn't just limited to one horse race. Starting at 2:00 in the afternoon, horses will race about every half hour through the evening. The 'big' race itself, the West Virginia Derby which features Mine That Bird, as well as some of his most talented peers, will be run just after 5:00. If you can't attend, it will be broadcast live on Fox Sports Net Pittsburgh from 5-6pm. <br /><br />I really want to stress that this is an event that ALL ages can enjoy. Kids will love that you can get so close to the action - it's literally only a couple of feet away. And if they're really lucky they'll have the opportunity to pet one of the thoroughbreds that 'pony' on the track (essentially their riders are there to escort the racehorses to the starting gate and react in the rare case that something goes amiss on the track) before and during the races. Parents will love that it's such a low-cost form of entertainment. Some will love the fast-paced world of horse racing, and others will love the thrill of the risk in putting a couple bucks on a horse or two, looking to make a bit of a profit. You'll love the opportunity to see the majesty of the thoroughbred, and the history that goes along with Saturday's West Virginia Derby.<br /><br />My advice to you - show up early with your foldable chair, pick a great spot next to the rail, have lunch or an early dinner, maybe a beer or two, and enjoy an exciting and memorable day of horse racing. You'll enjoy it - I promise.<br /><br />For more information, please visit the official website of the Mountaineer Racetrack & Gaming Resort (http://www.mtrgaming.com/). For a video of Mine That Bird's Kentucky Derby win, please follow this link, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv8x9x5A49s, but don't blink or you'll miss him! <br /><br />So why not come out and give Mine That Bird a good ole Pittsburgh welcome? I hope to see you at the track!</span><br /></span></span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-47446175369608484662009-04-03T18:11:00.001-07:002009-04-03T20:33:02.141-07:00On Tap - April 4, 2009<span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">More stakes races than anybody has time to really look at, so no time for small talk and lets get to 'cappin!<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Aqueduct (7th) Bay Shore Stakes (Gr. III) $200,000<br /><br /></span>All things considered, I'm pretty impressed with the field assembled here. #4 Capt. Candyman Can (5/2) was one of the most highly regarded sophomores over the winter, but the Ian Wilkes-charge ultimately found races beyond a mile to be beyond his scope. The same goes for #10 Taqarub (4/1). The Kiaran McLaughlin trained son of Aldebaran briefly appeared on the Derby Trail last out in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes, but was unable to replicate his earlier victories, including the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes, and could do no better than 9th that day. Santa Anita shipper, #8 Gato Go Win (5/1), will make his first start off the synthetics here, and seems like a logical play against. His only previous stakes competition came when third to filly Evita Argentina in the Grade II San Vicente Stakes. There's plenty of speed in this 7 furlong dash, and I don't expect the victor to be on or right off the lead. I think Taqarub became overrated due to his races over the Aqueduct inner-track, and I think the outside post plays against his running style. He also loses regular rider Alan Garcia and McLaughlin replaces him with Richard Migliore. The presence of Taqarub in this field will ensure that my pick, Capt. Candyman Can, bettable. Regular rider Julien Leparoux opts to ride at Oaklawn, but Wilkes secured Javy Castellano to ride, and he's more than capable. Capt. Candyman Can is comfortable rating off the pace, and seems to excel going 7f-8f. #3 Lyin' Heart (10/1) may be one to watch. The Asmussen-trained son of Lion Heart ran 2nd in the Bashford Manor Stakes (Gr. III) last summer and returned from a long layoff to nab third in the Mountain Valley Stakes last out. I'm also looking for a nice run out of #6 Not For Silver (5/1). The Laurel based runner shipped to Aqueduct and won the Capossela Stakes here over the winter and is reunited with Ramon Dominguez. He shortens back to a sprint distance for this event. <br /><br />1. Capt. Candyman Can<br />2. Not For Silver<br />3. Lyin' Heart<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Aqueduct (8th) Excelsior Handicap (Gr. III) $200,000<br /><br /></span>A pretty lackluster rendition of this Gr. III event for older horses. The majority of the runners wintered at Aqueduct and are familiar faces amongst the regular track visitors. #1 Barrier Reef (5/2) is the slight morning-line favorite, but he's as shaky a favorite as you'll find. The Darley charge has won three straight over the inner-track at Aqueduct for Tom Albertrani, and 5 of his last 6 over the inner, but is 6-0-0-2 on other surfaces. I'll take a stand against him here, but will use underneath. Bettors will have tough decisions to make in regard to both #6 Cool Coal Man (7/2) and #7 Atoned (6/1). Cool Coal Man, a 4-year-old son of Mineshaft, is a multiple stakes winner whose resume includes a victory in the 9f Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gr. II) last winter, and earned a 106 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) in a 6.5f allowance over that course this past January. The problem for bettors is that his record at Gulfstream is a respectable 4-3-0-0, but everywhere else he is only 11-3-1-1. Last out he failed as the slight favorite in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (Gr. II) and while he's performed admirably at this distance, I don't think 9f is his ideal going. Atoned offers similar issues. The Pletcher-trainee is just 1 for 6 at the distance, but his resume includes a victory in the Pegasus Stakes (Gr. III) and runner-up performances in the Tampa Bay Derby (Gr. III), Long Branch Stakes, and the Spend a Buck Stakes. He picks up Velazquez after being ridden previously by Pletcher's backup rider Chris DeCarlo. I'll take a flier and hope he's up for this race, and if nothing else I expect him to make things interesting.<br /><br />1. Atoned<br />2. Barrier Reef<br />3. Cool Coal Man<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Aqueduct (9th) Wood Memorial (Gr. I) $750,000<br /><br /></span>Essentially we've got a rematch of the Grade III Gotham Stakes. #2 I Want Revenge (4/5) was the runaway 8 1/2-length winner that day, and in just 1:42 3/5 the Jeff Mullins trained son of Stephen Got Even catapulted himself from being a fringe Derby contender to a lead contender for the race. Andy Beyer hooked him up with a flashy 113 speed figure, and last year's Derby winning owner IEAH Stables moved in and purchased a 50% share of the colt. The runner-up that day was #5 Imperial Council (2/1), and while he was beaten by a huge margin, he's my play here. Rajiv Maragh gave Imperial Council a horrendous ride that day, allowing the son of Empire Maker to drop near the rear of the field, 8 to 9 lengths behind the pacesetter. He was able to clear the rest of the field that day, but was never a threat to the winner. Regular rider Edgar Prado gets back on, and I expect him to be much closer to the early fractions, and while I expect I Want Revenge to regress off his huge effort last time, I look for Imperial Council to improve and get the job done. The coupled Kelly Breen entry (6/1) of #1 Atomic Rain and #1a West Side Bernie each have stakes experience, the former being Gr. II placed and the latter being a Gr. III winner. West Side Bernie failed last out as the 2/1 favorite in the Lane's End Stakes (Gr. II) and is winless since September. He's the more attractive member of the entry. One longshot I'm keeping my eye on is Frank Alexander's Lime Rickey (20/1). The Dogwood-owned colt has made each of his 9 prior starts on the turf, but is bred to be competitive on the dirt as well. He just missed as the favorite last out in the Palm Beach Stakes (Gr. III).<br /><br />1. Imperial Council<br />2. I Want Revenge<br />3. West Side Bernie<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Aqueduct (10th) Carter Handicap (Gr. I) $300,000<br /><br /></span>What a deep and competitive race. Of the 8 entrants, I think a logical case can be made for 5 of these, but I'm going to go with the Larry Jones coupled entry of #1 Biker Boy and #1a Kodiak Kowboy (5/1). I prefer Kodiak Kowboy, a Grade II winner last summer who also placed in the Grade I Vosburgh. He got a prep for this in the Duncan Kenner Stakes at the Fair Grounds, and is ready to roll here! Speed comes from all angles in #3 True Quality (7/2), #4 Fabulous Strike (2/1), #5 Driven To Success (10/1), and perhaps #6 Understatement (15/1). Fabulous Strike can be one of the premier sprinters in the nation, but I think the 7f distance plays against him here. #7 Tale of Ekati (3/1) is a dual Grade I winner that I just don't think highly of at all. He ran a dull 4th last out in the Richter Scale Stakes (Gr. II) at Gulfstream. <br /><br />1. Kodiak Kowboy<br />2. True Quality<br />3. Fabulous Strike<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Hawthorne (7th) Illinois Derby (Gr. II) $500,000<br /><br /></span>Another final stepping-stone to the Kentucky Derby, the Illinois Derby has brought together a cast of misfits and also-rans who really don't have much reason to be in the gate at Churchill come May 2nd. The favorites are #8 Musket Man (7/2) and #2 Giant Oak (9/2). I really don't like either. I think Giant Oak has all the makings of a Blackberry Road who does nothing more than pick up the pieces, and I think Musket Man is bred to sprint. #1 Nowhere to Hide (5/1) isn't that good either. #6 Perfect Song (6/1) who's receiving a ton of support among fans, and he's my pick as well. I think he's the most likely to improve. #9 Al Khali, a Pletcher trained son of Medaglia d'Oro might have a shot for minor pieces.<br /><br />1. Perfect Song<br />2. Giant Oak<br />3. Al Khali<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Santa Anita Park (6th) Santa Anita Derby (Gr. I) $750,000<br /><br /></span>Pamplemousse! Yay Pamplemousse! #10 The Pamplemousse (2/1) is my pick. I don't see the post as a deterrent, and I love his raw speed and talent. I think he's the best horse on the West Coast, adn the premier talent. Pioneerof the Nile, I think, is a horse who's benefitted from weak fields in his most recent starts, and I think that Chocolate Candy is just completely overrated. <br /><br />1. The Pamplemousse<br />2. Pioneerof the Nile<br />3. Mr. Hot Stuff <span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span></span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-68902402376109582892009-03-06T16:31:00.000-08:002009-03-06T20:11:56.810-08:00The Big Cap!<span style="font-size:85%;">As a race whose storied past includes victories by racing legends including Affirmed, Seabiscuit, Spectacular Bid, Round Table, Ack Ack, Lava Man, Tiznow, John Henry, and Alysheba, the 'Big Cap seems to be one racing spectacle that refuses to lose its spectacle as a true gem in the racing atmosphere. While the caliber of handicap fields across the country have ebbed and flowed due to the early retirements and untimely injuries of top horses, the Santa Anita Handicap seems to be one of the few races that annually draws large, talented, and competitive fields. The 2009 rendition of this race is no exception.<br /><br />Seven Grade/Group 1 winners will be complemented by a pair of Grade 2 victors and another Grade 3 winner among the races 14 entrants. With a fair number of speed horses, stalkers, mid-pack runners, and closers, the winner of this race is liable to come from anywhere in the pack. 10 of these entrants have experience going the distance (or further), and all of these but three have crossed the line first in a race on a synthetic surface. All of that should make for an excellent race, from both wagering and enjoyment perspectives.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">1. Matto Mondo (Chi) (Mandella/Bejarano) - 6/1</span><br /><br />Rapidly developing Richard Mandella-trainee launched his career in his native Chile and was a 16-length Group I winner by his fourth career start. He racked up another Group I win prior to shipping to the United States, and the son of Sir Cat has won two in a row after getting off to a rocky start here. After beginning his career in 10 straight turf races, Matto Mondo excelled in the Grade III Thunder Road Handicap when it came off-the-turf, and that race opened up the 5-year-old horse to a myriad of opportunities. Mandella picked what is likely the most difficult. Matto Mondo has covered the 10f distance just once in his career, and that was when he ran 7th in a Group I turf race in Chile. His longest victory is just 8.5f, and I'm not sure I can see a son of Sir Cat excelling at a mile and a quarter. Drawing the rail will likely force Bejarano to push his hand a bit early, and I expect him to be right up on the pace. That looks to be his ultimate undoing.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">2. Cowboy Cal (Pletcher/Velazquez) - 5/1</span><br /><br />One of my favorite horses in training, there is absolutely no doubting the fact that Cowboy Cal has guts and is willing to fight for a victory. The son of Giant's Causeway has run in the exacta in 9 of his past 10 races, with the lone off-the-board performance coming when he ran 9th of 20 in last spring's Kentucky Derby. After receiving an extended break after the race, Cowboy Cal returned to the races with a vengeance, earning a victory (via disqualification) in the ungraded Bryan Station Stakes. He followed that up with a narrow loss to Court Vision in the Grade I Hollywood Derby on the turf, but he's reeled off two straight Grade II victories on the synthetic main track at Santa Anita in the San Pasqual Handicap and the Strub Stakes. While his pedigree indicates that 10f should not be a problem, I'm a bit wary of him going 10f. I think his grit and determination make him a serious contender, but I think he may have a bit too much trouble hanging on in the final eighth. He's a must have on all exotic tickets.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">3. Heroi Do Bafra (Brz) (Miller/M. Baze) - 30/1</span><br /><br />At the end of 2008, anybody could have claimed this 7-year-old son of Royal Academy for $40,000. Peter Miller claimed Heroi Do Bafra on behalf of his clients Barber & Barber, and in his first start for his new connections the horse rewarded his them with a 3/4-length victory in a $50,000 claiming race at Santa Anita. Those credentials would make him a logical choice in an allowance race, but likely not a $1,000,000 Grade I. He'll need to run the race of his life to even crack the top five, and I find that highly unlikely.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">4. Monba (Pletcher/Prado) - 15/1</span><br /><br />Last year's Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. I) champion (over stablemate Cowboy Cal), Monba has only been seen twice on the track since that race. He ran 20th in the Kentucky Derby, but missed more than 9 months after that race due to injury. He returned last month at Santa Anita in the Grade III Thunder Road Handicap, and closed aggressively from 6th at the top of the lane to finish 3rd. The son of Maria's Mon owns a victory at 9f, and his pedigree indicates that he should revel the extra distance. Monba has had excuses for the majority of his losses - injuries hampered him in both the Derby and Fountain of Youth Stakes last year, and he wasn't likely near fully cranked last out in the Thunder Road. At 15/1 he looks to be worth a chance, and the fact that Edgar Prado gives up a mount on Imperial Council in the Gotham Stakes to ride here should instill some confidence.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">5. Colonel John (Harty/Gomez) - 9/2</span><br /><br />If Colonel John is victorious in this race, he'll be doing it at my expense. I feel that this son of Tiznow has a ton of talent, but I'm not sure he's been campaigned to really exploit that talent. It's my personal belief that Colonel John is the type of horse who perfroms better the more races that he's run consecutively. Eoin Harty seems to believe that he's the type of horse who does his best running off extended layoffs and when fresh. Three times in his career, Colonel John has had the opportunity to make his second start after a layoff line in his past performances. He's 3 for 3 in those races, and those victories include the Travers Stakes (Gr. I), the Santa Anita Derby (Gr. I), and the Real Quiet Stakes. In races directly after the layoff, Colonel John is only 2 for 5. He hasn't started since the Malibu Stakes (Gr. I) on December 26, so that means another layoff line in his past performances. I'm taking a stand against him here, especially as the morning line favorite, but keep an eye on him next out...unless that start is 3 months away. I also feel his Travers victory is quite overrated, as Mambo in Seattle, Pyro, and Macho Again, among others, have done little to flatter the Colonel's victory.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">6. Magnum (Arg) (Vienna/Rosario) - 12/1</span><br /><br />While looking at the past performances of this entrant, I have to first tip my cap to trainer Darrell Vienna. Magnum, if you remember, ran in this race three years ago - and he nearly upset Lava Man as a 17/1 longshot in the race. You wont find many currently in training who squared off against the likes of High Limit, Wilko, or Giacomo, and it's nearly unheard of for that horse to be running at the same level that he was three years earlier. But Magnum is. Last out, Magnum broke a 8 race losing streak, and that streak included 7 races where he ran off the board. But his last two races have been extremely promising - he ran 3rd, beaten only 1 3/4-lengths in the San Pasqual Handicap, and defeated Well Armed and Tiago last out in the Grade II San Antonio Handicap. He's in peak form and while it seems unlikely that the 8-year-old gelding could get his picture taken, stranger things have happened in racing. No Lava Man this time around.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">7. Blue Exit (Hollendorfer/Albarado) - 12/1</span><br /><br />A horse who may just be a steal at his morning-line price. Blue Exit, a son of Pulpit who began his career in France, has taken his time to come around stateside for Jerry Hollendorfer, but couldn't be in better form right now. The bay colt came flying at the end of the Strub Stakes (Gr. II) to just miss Cowboy Cal, but he passed 7 rivals down the lane and made up a half-dozen lengths on Cowboy Cal. I look for a similar, if not faster, pace in the Strub and if Robby Albarado can maneuver a clean trip for Blue Exit here, he's my pick to stand in the winner's circle after the race.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">8. Einstein (Brz) (Pitts/Leparoux) - 6/1</span><br /><br />One of the most accomplished horses in training in the United States, the Brazilian-bred Einstein has won a trio of Grade I races in his career, all on the turf, and he's also placed in four more Grade I events. He's also a Grade II winner on the dirt, and the son of Spend a Buck has earned nearly $1.7 million in his 23 race career. He never really fails to show up, and has performed well all over the East Coast and the Midwest. Distance should be a non-factor as he won the 11f Gulfstream Park Turf Stakes last February, and also won the same race in 2006. This will mark his first start over a synthetic surface, but trainer Pitts is confident he can handle them, and for good reason given his versatility on the turf and dirt. I'm not really sure what to make of him as an entrant, but my gut tells me tossing him would be a mistake. He's a definite contender.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">9. Dansant (GB) (Butler/T. Baze) - 20/1</span><br /><br />The European shipper amongst this cast of 14, Dansant isn't necessarily your typical European shipper for a main-track race. Dansant has become one of the premier synthetic track horses in Europe for trainer Gerard Butler, having won 5 of 8 races on the all-weather surfaces at Lingfield and Kempton Park in Great Britain. Furthermore, 2 of those 3 victories came at the 10f distance, and his lone 10f loss came last out by 1/2-length when he fell just short of running down a loose-on-the-lead frontrunner in a 3 horse field. Generally Europeans are incapable of running a winning race in a race like this so early in the season, however Dansant's synthetic track prowess opens up opportunities for him in Europe throughout the winter. I don't view him as a huge threat to the premier Americans, but he's definitely worth a second or a third look, especially near 20/1 on the tote. Breeders' Cup Marathon winner Muhannak came out of similar all-weather races in Europe, so a translation of form is not unheard of.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">10. Cause (Cho/Court) - 30/1</span><br /><br />Another longshot on the board, and deservedly so. The son of Giant's Causeway, a $120,000 yearling purchase at Keeneland in September 2006, Cause was claimed by Myung Kwon Cho last November for $25,000 at Hollywood Park. His form has improved significantly under the watchful eye of Cho, but he's still far off from being competitive in a race like this. He rallied belatedly to grab a close-up 6th in the Strub Stakes (Gr. II) last out at 120/1, and it'd take odds like that again to make me even consider a second look at him in here...and that would just be for a $2 pity wager.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">11. Court Vision (Mott/Dominguez) - 6/1</span><br /><br />Another one of last year's three-year-old divisional standouts looking to make a name for himself in 2009. Court Vision won the Grade II Remsen Stakes as a juvenile in 2007, but endured a 6 race losing streak following that score that put him on the cusp falling into oblivion. Trainer Bill Mott gave the colt a 180, though, and repositioned Court Vision for a turf campaign, and the son of Gulch responded very well to the change of surface. He was victorious in back-to-back starts in the Grade II Jamaica Handicap and the Grade I Hollywood Derby, and just missed last out to Kip Deville in the Grade I Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. The victor drilled 9f in 1:45 3/5 that day, and Court Vision was just 3/4 of a length in tow. Ramon Dominguez has been aboard for his past three starts, and passes up a ride aboard Haynesfield in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct to ride here. He'll be coming from well off the pace, and he'll need a bit of racing luck to carve a winning trip for himself. Court Vision broke his maiden at Keeneland, so the synthetic tracks should be within his reach.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">12. Zambezi Sun (GB) (Frankel/Espinoza) - 12/1</span><br /><br />The first of the Frankel-trained duo, Zambezi Sun is a Juddmonte homebred and a European Group I winner. After battling the likes of Dylan Thomas, Soldier of Fortune, Youmzain, Doctor Dino, and Sagara over the past few summers in Europe, Zambezi Sun may actually find fields like this to be a drop in class. Frankel started him in the Grade II San Luis Obispo Handicap over the Santa Anita turf course on February 22, and he believes that effort may have done the trick in giving his entrant the edge that he needs to be competitive in here. Zambezi Sun pulled jockey Garrett Gomez throughout the Obispo, and came up empty when the real running started en route to a 6th place finish. Can he turn his luck around here? It looks to be a possibility, but I'm not banking on it.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">13. Champs Elysees (GB) (Frankel/Valdivia) - 12/1</span><br /><br />A two-time Grade I winner in North America, the British-bred Champs Elysees offers his backers quite a few advantages as this race will unfold. Another Juddmonte homebred, Champs Elysees ran third in this race last year, beaten only 3 1/2-lengths by victor Heatseeker. He's also unleashed a few stretch rallies in races completely lacking in place to take the Grade I Hollywood Turf Cup last November, as well as last September's Northern Dancer Stakes (Can-Gr. I) at Woodbine. He'll go off as a longshot in this field, and I expect him to slide up from his 12/1 morning line odds. He's got his share of negatives, though, as well. He's never won on a synthetic surface, and besides his 3rd in last year's 'Big Cap, his synthetic performances include an 8th in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic (Gr. I) and a 7th last out in the San Antonio Handicap (Gr. II). His form is difficult to gauge as he regularly follows uncharacteristically poor efforts with strong ones, and vice versa. Valdivia guided him to the victory two back at Hollywood, but I'm siding with others here.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">14. Stream Cat (Biancone/Solis) - 20/1</span><br /><br />Biancone wheels back with another, and made a last minute decision to replace Nownownow with Stream Cat in this field. Stream Cat, a gelding trained by Biancone prior to his year-long suspension, is a winner of 6 of 20 lifetime, including a trio of Grade III races throughout his career. He will have no issues navigating the distance effectively, and he's hit the board in 5 of 7 tries on all-weather surfaces. Last out, in his first start back with Biancone, he ran 6th in the San Marcos Stakes (Gr. II) over the Santa Anita turf course, but he was beaten only 2 1/2-lengths that day. The 6-year-old son of Black Minnaloushe has never been the type, however, who's shown the talent to win a race like this, and he's consistently failed at the Grade I and Grade II levels. Biancone is off to a very slow start at the meet, 1 for 39 and counting, and I expect that to continue in this race.<br /><br />With such an evenly matched field, I'm looking forward to a very close finish. I think Cowboy Cal is the most likely speed horse to hang around, and while the fractions will be fast, they will be bearable and not a huge deterrent to any particular running style. I look forward to a big rallies from Court Vision, Blue Exit, and Monba, and trip is going to play a huge role in how that plays out, especially with a full field of 14 entered. One mistake could cost a horse several lengths, as could being forced too wide, or lacking running room. Magnum and Einstein will have first run at the pacesetters, and either of them is capable of grabbing the lead and going on with it. And even look out for European shipper Dansant, who's conditioner has been very confident about his chances all week. Frankel has been high on Zambezi Sun since he arrived in his stable, and that's worth noting again. Oh, and I haven't even mentioned the favorite Colonel John, yet...<br /><br />14 entrants, and I feel I can make a very logical and legitimate case for 9 of them - should be one heck of a race!<br /><br />1. Blue Exit<br />2.Court Vision<br />3. Cowboy Cal<br />4. Einstein (Brz) </span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-40320751279505118582009-01-30T17:53:00.000-08:002009-01-30T20:37:50.412-08:00Gulfstream Park 1.31.09<span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:85%;">So, I guess I've found myself in a bit of a handicapping rut. I haven't bet a race since my Saturday Breeders' Cup debacle, but I think I'm ready to get back into the action. I've been waiting for Nicanor's debut ever since I heard that they were indeed going to move forward with his racing career, mainly because I'm dying to bet against such a short-priced and vulnerable debut favorite. The card also features the Grade I Donn, the Grade III Holy Bull, and the seasonal debut of the highly regarded Well Positioned. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Race 1</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">The connections who delivered Big Brown to the world before selling him to IEAH Stable's paid $340,000 for #4 Well Positioned, a nicely bred son of Awesome Again, out of a Holy Bull mare. After running somewhat poorly in his career debut, he woke up at Aqueduct on November 22 with an overpowering 11 1/4 length win. He's worked 5 times for Patrick Reynolds since, including a 6f move in 1:13 4/5 on 1/25. Aqueduct form has been a cause for concern at Gulfstream thus far, but I'm not sure that makes him a bet against, even at likely low odds. Top-trainer Todd Pletcher has a pretty talented duo making their seasonal debuts. #7 Take the Points (3/1) breaks from the outside post and looks to be a very viable alternative. The son of Even the Score broke his maiden at Gulfstream against the talented Nowhere to Hide (who goes later in the Holy Bull) last out, and keeps Prado aboard to ride. #6 Masala (4/1) from the Pletcher barn broke his maiden at Aqueduct at second asking in the mud, and like his stablemate he shows 6 works at Palm Meadows. Either could spring the minor upset at a better price. #3 Cinnamon Road (4/1) is intriguing if nothing else. The Calder based son of Delaware Township freaked out last time with a 14 1/4 length win against 35k claimers, and earned a 95 Beyer for his troubles. His Beyer progression heading into that one was 65, 77, 72, but in October '08 he threw up an 89 Beyer in a starter allowance. He keeps Velazquez, but going wire-to-wire against these will be no easy task. I wouldn't mind seeing him soften up Well Positioned, though. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">#7 Take the Points</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">#6 Masala</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">#4 Well Positioned</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Race 2 </span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Deep 8.5f 35K claiming race on the grass drew 12 entrants. Quite a few are capable. The first one that stands out is #7 Bang Bang Bang. He's been a part of the exacta in all 3 of his turf starts, and owns Beyers of 88, 86, 86 on the surface. He picks up the services of Alan Garcia, and has been working forwardly at Palm Meadows for his 09 bow. Will benefit from a possible relaxed pace scenario. A deep closer who has all the tools to take this is #11 Don'twait Toolong (6/1). The Nafzger/Borel combo teams up here with this gelded son of War Chant. He drops in for the lowest price of a career where he's hit the board in 15 of 21, including 9 of 15 on the green and 4 of 5 at the distance. Borel knows the horse, has ridden him 8 times but has never won with him - that's alright though, not many jocks have - he's 2 for 21 lifetime. He'll be flying late, though. Tough to love up top given his record, though. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">#7 Bang Bang Bang</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">#11 Don'twait Toolong</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Race 3</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Maidens, maidens, maidens...but it looks as if there are prices to be had. The favorite is likely to be Zito's #4 Just a Coincidence (3/1), by Forestry. He tired badly last time routing at Churchill, and cuts back to sprint distances where he's 3-0-2-1 lifetime. Problem is, he's 0 for 4 now and it's quickly becoming that time to question his ability to get the job done at all. I'll play him underneath, because he looks too strong to run off the board. Romans' #2 Bobby B. Goode (6/1) intrigues a bit. He picks up Albarado and seems to have solid gate speed. He could very well be one to catch if none of the firsters come out flying. Kelly Breen's #9 Mighty Score (6/1) could play a role. Ran 4th in his debut to Checklist, but his 3f in 33 3/5 work on 1/25 says he's ready to run a big one. #8 Tapis Magnique (8/1) is a firster from the Mott barn. His sire, Speightstown, does well with firsters and he's got Velazquez aboard.</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">#6 Mighty Score </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">#8 Tapis Magnique</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">#4 Just a Coincidence </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Race 4</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">No real feelings on this race, but will go with #8 Yippety Yip (5/1) who's dropping in class.</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Race 5</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">No thanks</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Race 6</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">#4 Fullofsong</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Race 7</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Can't say I have much of an opinion in this race. The logical selections here, #11 Beethoven (4/1) and #10 West Side Bernie (3/1) drew poorly on the outside, and will be hindered with lost ground with such a short run into the first turn. I honestly think the most talented one in here could be Pletcher's #8 Idol Maker (6/1), and I'm slowly selling myself on him. He debuted brilliantly at Belmont, earned an 87 Beyer going 8f and beat Nowhere to Hide convincingly. Was tossed into the deep end and sank against Old Fashioned in the Gr. II Remsen, and then was sent to the lead and faded last out in an allowance. Toss the last because of the ride, and he's still got a lot to prove especially with that 13 length Remsen loss on his resume. #2 Danger to Society (5/1) is my tentative pick. The son of Harlan's Holiday is 2 for 2 lifetime, including an impressive 9f allowance win last time out in which he put up an 86 Beyer. I just don't like him all that much, though, especially down the line. But his best may be enough to win here. #9 Nowhere to Hide (8/1) is a Zito-trainee who finally got the job done last out, but it difficult to love. 9f may be stretching it for the son of Vindication, who's never run beyond 8f and needed a weaker Calder field to break his maiden after going 0 for 4 on the NYRA circuit. West Side Bernie (3/1) is good, but probably not good enough from the post. He ran 6th in the BC Juvenile and backed that up with a 2nd in the Grade III Delta Jackpot and continues to work lights out for Kelly Breen. Look out for #5 El Crespo (12/1). The son of A.P. Indy has yet to try the dirt, but showed talent on the grass. A half to a pair of turf stakes winners including Rey de Cafe. A.P. Indy suggests dirt wont be an issue for the George Arnold-trainee, but that's easier said than done. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">#2 Danger to Society</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">#10 West Side Bernie</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">#8 Idol Maker</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">#5 El Crespo</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Race 8</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">So let me ask you a question - you're handicapping a maiden race full of first time starters. One is trained by a guy who wins with 2% of his debut starters, is by a stallion who isn't known for quick horses, and has been working well, but not overly well - does he really deserve to be the likely favorite? When he's Barbaro's little brother, though, sometime stats go out the window. I've been looking forward to betting against, and I still think that's the best bet here. #10 Dubinsky (7/2) is a good looking son of Toccet who would be around 2/1 without Nicanor in the field. #3 Andiron (6/1) absolutely loathed the synthetic track in his debut, but the half to The Cliff's Edge (by A.P. Indy) is still highly regarded with his trainer, the legendary Bobby Frankel. I'm looking for a reversal. #1 Unbridled Cardinal (20/1) is a 3/4 to Rockport Harbor and lost all hope in his debut by blowing the break. He's in Zito's hands, ridden by Leparoux, and at 20/1, why not? </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">#10 Dubinsky</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">#1 Unbridled Cardinal</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">#3 Andiron</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Race 9</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">A rousing rendition of the prestigious Donn Handicap (Gr. I). At first glance, a case can be made for many of these. The first horse who jumped out at me is one that I'm actually discounting now, that being #2 Albertus Maximus (4/1). The recent Shadwell purchase came into his own in the fall, winning a pair of races including the $1,000,000 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, and he was moving late against Tiago and Well Armed in the Grade I Goodwood. Furthermore, a look back in his PPs shows a nice maiden score, complete with a 92 Beyer, on the traditional dirt. My concerns come from his 0 for 3 record at the distance, as well as the significant turn around he saw in the care of Vladimir Cerin. Red flags go up for me there...Cerin has a bit of a reputation, and anytime a horse jumps up that much, I get a little sketpical. Now that he's in McLaughlin's hands, I'm expecting a bit of a regression - plus it must be noted that this race is being used as a prep for Dubai and he's not likely 100%. He also loses Gomez for Alan Garcia. I keep coming back to #7 Arson Squad (3/1). He's 3 for 3 on the dirt at 9f, has been a new horse for Dutrow on the conventional dirt, and is the best form he's been in for years. He blewout 3f on 1/29 and I can't wait to see him run. The likely favorite is #10 Einstein, but I still feel he's overrated on the dirt. He wouldn't have won the Grade II Clark last out if Commentator had run a race remniscent to what he'd done in the Mass Cap or Whitney. The problem is, none of these are spectacular enough to really see knocking him off even if he can replicate his Clark win or Foster loss to Curlin. I just cant find myself having enough faith in him to use him up top, and I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't fire at all. Call me crazy, but I've yet to give up on #3 Anak Nakal (10/1). He is the same horse who finally seemed to have things figured out when he won the PA Derby (Gr. II) and placed to Arson Squad in the Meadowlands Cup (Gr. II). Toss the Clark, and accept that the Hals Hope (Gr. III) was too short for him, and he might have a fighting chance at a lower prize. Tough call on him. #6 On Board Again offers price at 20/1, and just might be dangerous. He missed all of 2007 and half of 2008, but is back in good form and Frankel wouldn't put him here if he didn't think he was ready. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">#7 Arson Sqaud </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">#4 Bullsbay</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">#3 Anak Nakal</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Race 10</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">If you're not out of money yet, look to #6 Whitty Woman to salvage your day!</span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-27231319700632991252009-01-13T11:26:00.000-08:002009-01-13T12:29:34.845-08:002009 "Handicap" Division<span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Alright, so lets get all of the "handi-crap" jokes out of our system now. It can't really be that bad, can it? Well, even with the downgrading of the Suburban Handicap to a Grade 2 event, by my count there are still 11 Grade 1 races in 2009 in what I would call the "handicap" division. That's not including Grade 1 mile races such as the Metropolitan Mile or Cigar Mile. So that begs the question, who is going to win divisional staples such as the Woodward, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Santa Anita Handicap, and the Donn? Well I've tried to figure it out and here's what I've come up with -<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Stretch out Milers</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Those who are capable of competing at the Grade 1 level, but most are likely to find 10f a bit too far<br /><br /></span>Albertus Maximus<br />Gayego<br />Harlem Rocker<br />Monterrey Jazz<br />Tale of Ekati<br />Well Armed <br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Synthetic Specialists</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Might have Grade 1 talent on the fake stuff, but are untested or failed on the real stuff </span><br /><br />Champs Elysees (GB)<br />Cowboy Cal<br />Dominican<br />Great Hunter<br />Mast Track<br />Slew's Tizzy <br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Ones Not Quite Good Enough</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Capable on the dirt and probably capable of handling 10f, but don't seem to have quite enough talent</span><br /><br />Anak Nakal<br />A.P. Arrow<br />Atoned<br />Dry Martini<br />El Gato Malo<br />Frost Giant<br />Georgie Boy<br />Mambo in Seattle<br />Mostacolli Mort<br />Pyro<br />Smooth Air<br />Tin Cup Chalice<br />Wishful Tomcat <br />Zappa <br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Ones Really Not Good Enough</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Tried the level, failed the level, but might try again in '09<br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /></span></span>Alaazo<br />Ball Four<br />Cool Coal Man<br />Da' Tara<br />Golden Yank<br />Hey Byrn<br />Imawildandcrazyguy<br />Past the Point<br />Ravel<br />Sam P.<br />Stones River<br />Tres Borrachos<br />You and I Forever <br />Z Fortune<br />Z Humor<span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;">Th</span><span style="font-weight: bold;">e Question Marks</span><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-style: italic;"></span></span><br /></span><span style="font-style: italic;"></span>Might have the talent to do big things, might not<br /></span><br />Behindatthebar<br />Crown of Thorns<br />Denis of Cork<br />Informed<br />Monba <br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The "Chosen Few"</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Those who are tried at the Grade 1 level, proven at the Grade 1 level, can probably (or have proven to be) effective at 10f, and will probably the the ones to beat in 2009</span><br /><br />Arson Squad<br />Colonel John<br />Commentator<br />Delightful Kiss<br />Einstein (Brz)<br />Macho Again<br />Tiago <br /><br />So if you're the connections of Zenyatta, do you step up and try to take on these horses?<br /><br />Who do you think is going to be the big name in 2009? Who's going to step up from nowhere and make a name for himself (or herself)? <br /><br />On second thought, maybe "handi-crap" fits great...<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span></span></span></span></span><br /></span></span></span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-19874007095231443122008-12-23T13:45:00.000-08:002008-12-24T09:04:32.941-08:00Hats off to....Caiman!<span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family:verdana;">I wanted to start this semi-regular post as "Tip o' the Cap to...," however my pal and fellow horse racing blogger Jared Kennedy (http://kennedyscorridor.blogspot.com/) has been using that tagline for months as part of his "Weekend Review" segment, and it would be quite unprofessional of me to steal his tagline - so, "Hats off to..." must do. Essentially what these posts are intended to do is share memories/stories/performances/etc. of horses/trainers/jockeys/owners that rarely or never receive much attention nationally. It'll take a lot for me to ever do a "Hats off to..." blog for Todd Pletcher, Garrett Gomez, Zenyatta, or Sheikh Mohammed.<br /><br />I'd like to dedicate this inaugural blog to one of my favorite horses, if not my favorite horse, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Caiman</span>.<br /><br />Every year it seems as if one or two completely over matched and untalented horses stumble into the starting gate of the Belmont Stakes, their connections holding unrealistic visions of grandeur and the belief that their colt or gelding has the ability to outpace proven Grade 1 winners at the unique 12f distance. I'm not even talking proven stakes performers like Da' Tara and Sarava here, I'm talking maidens, claimers, and allowance runners who slink back into obscurity about 2:35 after they emerge from it. You may not recognize the names of many of these also-rans, but I'll run through them anyway. In 2002, it was Artax Too (11th), and 2003's version was a colt named Supervisor (5th of 6). The 2005 running featured the likes of Indy Storm (4th) and Watchmon (9th), and in 2006 Double Galore (DNF) and Oh So Awesome (5th) had their 2:30 in the sun. Most recently it was Guadalcanal (7th) in 2008, although I do give that one some credit - he's at least staying afloat against allowance runners in turf marathon races.<br /><br />2004 was no different than any of these other fields. In and amongst the proven Grade 1 winners in the field was a little known colt named Caiman, who shipped in from trainer Angel Medina's Hawthorne base for the 136th rendition of the Belmont Stakes.<br /><br />The story of Caiman begins like does the story of most other thoroughbred racehorses - stallion sees mare and animal instincts take over. Not really the most romantic way of putting it, but that's just the way it is. In the spring of 2000, John T.L. Jones Jr. of Walmac International Stud fame decided to breed his mare Storming Up, a winning daugher of European champion Storm Bird, to brand new Maryland stallion Malibu Moon, an unproven son of A.P. Indy who was forced into retirement with just a maiden win to his credit in two career starts. Call the $3,000 advertised stud fee of Malibu Moon in 2000 a deal compared to the $40,000 he demands in Kentucky for the 2009 season. Out of that mating, one that was sure to receive no headlines around the horse racing world, a bay colt was born. Jones, seemingly unimpressed with what he saw, entered the colt in the 2001 Keeneleand November Breeding Stock Sale as a weanling.<br /><br />As top-caliber racemares and producers like Twenty Eight Carat, Cee's Song, Jostle, and Phone Chatter, as well as well-bred and gorgeous weanings and yearlings such as a colt who'd later be known as Tizdubai (full brother to Tiznow & Budroyale) and a filly who'd later go by Teeming (half sister to Rags to Riches, Jazil, and Casino Drive) sold for six and seven figures, hip number 3697 went through the ring, receiving a rock bottom bid of $3,000 by purchaser Victor Achar, an owner/breeder from Mexico. This weanling was one of Achar's 18 purchases at the sale, none of which cost more than $10,000.<br /><br />Achar would later name his Malibu Moon weanling "Caiman," which is Spanish for alligator. Caiman would begin his career at the historic Hipodromo de las Americas racetrack in Mexico City - hardly the starting point for a horse hoping to someday compete in American Grade 1 races. Caiman would win 2 of 3 races at the track, including an 8-length romp in a $3,200 allowance race. Even though Caiman was only able to earn $4,032 in those three starts, Achar shot for the moon with the unproven colt, and made the decision to ship the horse to the United States, where he'd be trained by Angel Medina, a staple in the South Florida racing circuit. Achar also nominated the colt to the American Triple Crown.<br /><br />Continuing with the "shoot for the moon" theme, Achar and Medina couldn't have picked a more difficult race for Caiman to make his United States-debut in - the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes, against a field of 9 Kentucky Derby hopefuls, including Second of June, Friends Lake, Silver Wagon, and El Prado Rob. Caiman was dismissed in the wagering at 75/1, and he ran like a 75/1 shot should - 8th of 9, beaten 22 3/4 lengths. Medina regrouped with the colt, and placed him in an easier spot - a Gulstream Park allowance, where Caiman was unlucky to run into Grade 1 winner Birdstone, who was making his seasonal debut. His connections had to have been pleased with his effort, though, as he ran 3rd at 45/1, beaten only 3 lengths by Birdstone. Achar and Medina again placed the horse in a tough spot, the Grade 3 Swale Stakes. The betting public again dismissed Caiman, this time at 51/1, and the colt again failed to live up to expectations, running 5th of 5, beaten nearly 10 lengths. With the Gulfstream Park meet soon coming to a close, Medina switched his focus to Illinois' Hawthorne Race Course and sent much of his stock, Caiman included, to the Cicero-area track. And while at Hawthorne, Caiman awoke, winning a pair of allowance races, one each on the turf and dirt, showing his versatility. Caiman's performances, once again, persuaded Achar to shoot for the moon with his colt, and Achar put up the $20,000 required to run in the third leg of the Triple Crown - the $1,000,000 Belmont Stakes.<br /><br />As Caiman's Belmont jockey Ramon Dominguez glanced around the starting gate for the race, he had to have taken a moment to consider the historical impact of the race and the talent assembled in the gates around him. Six gates to his right was journeyman Stewart Elliot, seated aboard a chestnut colt and donning the blue and white silks of the little-known Someday Farm. The colt his was sitting on, Smarty Jones, had just won the Kentucky Derby by 2 3/4 lengths and the Preakness Stakes by 11 1/2 lengths, and was looking to become the 12th winner, and the first since 1978, of the elusive Triple Crown. Right next to Caiman was his adversary from the Gulfstream Park allowance race, Birdstone. Two gates to Dominguez's right was the tall and physical presence known as Rock Hard Ten, and directly to the left of Caiman was future Grade 1 winner Purge. Just inside of Smarty Jones was the versitile Eddington. I can only wonder if Caiman knew the challenge he was up against - 5 current or future Grade 1 winners were in the starting gate, and a sixth, Master David, was already Grade 1 placed. It took just 2:27 2/5 seconds for Birdstone to crush the dreams of a nation and upset Smarty Jones, and several seconds later Caiman crossed the finish line behind 7 of his 8 rivals. The final margin of Caiman's defeat was 31 1/4 lengths. During the call of the race, legendary caller Tom Durkin only managed to announce Caiman's name once - I guess that's almost fitting in a way, though. He was the obscure horse going into the race, and Durkin did nothing to change that billing.<br /><br />To date, Caiman has started 66 times since that day at Belmont. The other 8 horses in that field would make only a combined 63 starts after the Belmont. Smarty Jones would never race again. Birdstone would only race twice morre, and Rock Hard Ten only 6 more times over 2 years. Caiman, stll in the care of Achar and Medina, would start in 9 more stakes races, 4 of them graded, over the next 7 months. He would hit the board just once, that being in the 7f Forward Pass Stakes (50k) at Arlington Park, where he was beaten only a neck by Nebraska Moon. On March 11, 2005, Medina dropped Caiman into a claiming race for the first time in his career. He'd lost 14 straight races dating to those Hawthorne allowances, and it was quickly becoming time for Achar to receive some compensation for the colt. Caiman had taken the connections to places that they'd only dreampt of going to, but at teh end of the day, horse racing is a business and Achar had a business decision to make - he offered Caiman to anyone willing to pay $50,000 for him.<br /><br />Scott Lake liked what he saw from the colt, and on behalf of the Winning Move Stable, claimed the colt from Achar. He'd ship Caiman from Gulfstream to his base at Belmont, where Caiman would become a favorite amongst the fans and a nuisance among the handicappers. It was under Lake that Caiman and a myriad of jockeys, including Aaron Gryder, Jorge Chavez, and Jose Santos would develop quite a reputation for consistency. In 7 starts with Lake, Caiman would never miss the board, running either second or third each time out. He ran into top quality horses like Commentator, Unforgettable Max, Love of Money, Kennel Up, and Bailero, but consistently found himself incapable of winning. He was a lovable loser indeed. After switching to the barn of Gary Contessa, it was much of the same for Caiman - no wins - and it was becoming evident that Caiman was losing a step or two. In 2005, Caiman raced 15 times, and by that December he was claimed by Rene Araya, on behalf of Raymond Vitolo, for $17,500.<br /><br />Under Araya's tutledge, Caiman would finally work his way back into the winner's circle - in fact, he won 3 of 12 starts with Araya, and hit the board 8 times. September 1, 2006 would mark his final start on the New York circuit, a circuit where he gained popularity among fans and hit the board in a remarkable 16 of 22 starts (72.7%). Nearly each of his races followed the same story - drop way back early, and mow them down late.<br /><br />Since that claim in September 2006, Caiman has become quite the traveler. He's started at 11 different tracks and has been claimed 8 times. He's been trained by 7 different men and women. He left (via claim) and returned (via claim) to the barn of Larry Rivelli 3 times. He's run at everything from 7 furlongs to 2 miles. He's won at least twice in every calendar year, and won 5 times in 18 starts in 2006. He ran most recently at Tampa Bay Downs on December 13, where he finished 6th of 12 against $5,000 claimers. Under jockey Huber Villa-Gomez, he took his usual position toward the rear of the field, but age is catching up with the 7 year old horse more than ever, and his usual furious closing kick has lost most of its punch. He's currently owned by Neal M. Allread, the CEO of Kurz-Kasch Incorporated, a manufacturing company based in Dayton, Ohio. His trainer is Barbara I. McBride.<br /><br />I first saw Caiman race in that Belmont Stakes, but didn't really notice him until a brisk fall evening in 2006. The Michael Lauer-trainee was running in the 9th race at the track most local to me, Mountaineer Park. I saw that the colt had the class to be competitive at this starter allowance level, and that he'd just missed by less than a length last out at Mountaineer in a similar race. Despite his being hammered to 7/10 at the windows, I put some money on him. And sure enough, as always seemed to happen, he just wasn't quite good enough. Rex Stokes put him on the lead in the 10f race, and he and a Prairie Meadows shipper named Canela battled back and forth throughout the race. It was an outstanding duel, with neither horse willing to give an inch - Caiman asserted himself with a lead at the mile point, but Canela had pulled even by the top of the lane. Caiman dug in to give his all, and so did Canela. Canela gained a clear upper edge within the sixteenth pole, and one final push from Caiman wasn't enough to get the job done - Canela was the winner by 1/2 length and my win ticket on Caiman was worthless. I was still impressed. The duo stopped the timer in 2:03.81, a very respectable time at Mountaineer, and only 1/5 of a second off the track record. Ever since then, I've followed Caiman's career closely, although I'd never bet on him again. He brielfy returned to Mountaineer for several months earlier this year, and he hit the board in 4 of 5 starts against $5,000 claimers. I went to see him in one of the starts, didn't bet him, but still cheered proudly for the bay horse. Seeing him put a smile on my face - not many horses can do that.<br /><br />If anyone knows Allread or McBride, can they do me a favor and pass along a message? I'm not asking for a shoe or a halter, nor do I have the means or resources to offer Caiman a home for when he's done racing. I'm not looking to claim or purchase the horse, but I would love for them to know one thing - that their horse has at least one fan. Everytime I see his name amongst my stable mail, I excitedly check to see if he was able to win or not. The majority of the time he comes up short, but it's been a fun ride just sitting back and watching Caiman do his thing.<br /><br />Thanks for taking me along for the ride, Caiman. While most popular and talented thoroughbreds come and go, Caiman has always been around to enjoy. Here's to nothing but success in 2009, and as always stay safe buddy!<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Readers, I edited the name of Dr. Greenfield from my post - I showed very poor discretion in mentioning his name amongst the other Belmont Stakes losers, as it has been brought to my attention that the circumstances surrounding his defeat are far more complicated than the fact that he just wasn't good enough. I regret tarnishing his name, and apologize to the Team Valor Stables and anyone else I may have upset. My apologies.<br /><br />Dustin </span><br /></span></span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-86164429025186180182008-12-19T10:42:00.001-08:002008-12-19T12:59:28.047-08:00Eclipse Balloting<span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:85%;">So another year goes by, and yet again the fine folks who tally the votes and hand out the awards forgot to send me a ballot. What an unfortunate oversight - I really thought this was my year to earn some recognition in the industry. Perhaps 2009 will mark the arrival of my first ballot. In all seriousness, though, here is how I would vote for the awards - </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Female Sprinter</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Legitimately, this award comes down to two contestants - Patti and Hal Earnhardt's <strong>Indian Blessing</strong> (trained by B. Baffert) and Juddmonte Farm's <strong>Ventura</strong> (R. Frankel). A very strong case can be made for either, but I think a stronger case can be made for the Baffert-trainee. Indian Blessing won 5 of 8 starts, including 4 of 5 starts in races less than one mile. Those victories included the Grade 1 Test Stakes, the Grade 1 Prioress Stakes, the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom (against older competition), and hte Grade 2 Santa Ynez. Her only defeat in those 5 races was at the hands of Ventura in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, but Indian Blessing did manage to outrun the rest of her competitors that day to get 2nd. The case for Ventura hinges on ignoring her full campaign, and focusing on two races. Prior to the Breeders' Cup, Ventura would have been a logical contender for the 'Turf Female' award, as 5 of her 7 starts in 2008 were on the grass. She did win twice on the main track in sprints, those being the aformentioned Breeders' Cup and the Grade 2 Madison Stakes at Keeneland, but I just don't think those two races make her resume stronger than Indian Blessing's for this particular award. For third, I'm the nod to <strong>Intangaroo</strong> (G. Sherlock), who very quietly won 3 Grade 1 races in 2008, including the Santa Monica Handicap, the Humana Distaff, and the Ballerina Stakes at Saratoga. Her distant finish in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (6th) ultimately kept her from meriting more consideration. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">1. Indian Blessing</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">2. Ventura </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">3. Intangaroo</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><strong>Male Sprinter</strong></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">This is yet another wide open division, and a handful at least merit serious consideration. The most talented sprinter to set foot on any track in 2008 was <strong>Midnight Lute</strong> (B. Baffert), however I have to go against the Breeders' Cup Sprint champion here. IEAH Stable's <strong>Benny the Bull</strong> (R. Dutrow) put together a great campaign, in which he won all 4 of his races. The campaign of <strong>Street</strong> <strong>Boss</strong> (B. Headley) also should not be forgotten. He won a pair of Grade 1 races, placed in two others, and also won a Grade 3 event. At the end of the day, however, I think Benny the Bull is the most deserving here. I'm not the type of person who would refuse to vote for a nominee after one big performance, but I simply feel that Benny the Bull was good enough in 2009 to overcome Midnight Lute's one big run. Plus it's important to not overlook the fact that Midnight Lute also bombed in the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien in his only other start of 2008. Benny the Bull won sprint stakes races at 4 different tracks - Gulfstream, Calder, Belmont, and Nad al Sheba, and was the Breeders' Cup Sprint favorite before his retirement due to injury. Midnight Lute was probably the best to set foot on a track in 2008, but didn't show it enough to merit the top billing here. Would also like to give a mention to Bear Stables' <strong>Fatal Bullet</strong> (R. Baker), Canada's Horse of the Year, who ran 2nd in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">1. Benny the Bull</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">2. Midnight Lute</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">3. Street Boss</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><strong>Juvenile Female </strong></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">This one is definitely one of the awards that is an open and shut case. <strong>Stardom</strong> <strong>Bound</strong>, campaigned through her juvenile season in the silks of Charles Cono by Chris Paasch prior to being sold at Keeneland, won a trio of Grade 1 races including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, the Oak Leaf Stakes, and the DelMar Debutante. She should be a most unanimous winner. Behind her, it gets a bit tricky - the form of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies hasn't held up well, and both <strong>Sky Diva</strong> (S. Klesaris) and <strong>Dream Express</strong> (K. McPeek) struggled in their post-Breeders' Cup races. I also think Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf victor <strong>Maram</strong> (C. Brown) deserves some attention after putting together a 3 for 3 campaign that ended with wins in a Grade 3 race and a Breeders' Cup race. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">1. Stardom Bound</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">2. Dream Express</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">3. Maram</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><strong>Juvenile Male</strong></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">I'm really not sure this one is as close as some are making it out to be. There are a myriad of top competitors, including <strong>Midshipman</strong>, campaigned in 2008 by Bob Baffert, <strong>Vineyard Haven</strong>, who was campaigned by Robert Frankel, as well as Grade 1 winners <strong>Square Eddie</strong> (D. O'Neill) and <strong>Street Hero</strong> (M. Cho). The top two are pretty much set to be Midshipman and Vineyard Haven, who combined to win 4 Grade 1 races, two each. I guess it comes down to the caliber of the victories. Midshipman won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the DelMar Futurity, and in the process he defeated the likes of Square Eddie, Street Hero (twice), Coronet of a Baron, Munnings, and Terrain. He also lost a close decision to Street Hero in the Grade 1 Norfolk. Vineyard Haven won the Hopeful and Champagne Stakes, and in the process defeated Desert Party, Munnings (twice), Cribnote (twice), Hello Broadway, and Break Water Edison. In total, Midshipman defeated 3 Group/Grade 1 winners, while Vineyard Haven defeated none. That's the difference for me, right there. Midshipman beat better horses and showed up for the Breeders' Cup. I give Square Eddie the nod over Street Hero for 3rd.</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">1. Midshipman</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">2. Vineyard Haven</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">3. Square Eddie</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><strong>Three-Year-Old Male</strong></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Big Brown. Not even close. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">1. Big Brown</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">2. Colonel John</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">3. Raven's Pass</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><strong>Three-Year-Old Female</strong></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Probably will end up being the closest vote of them all - it comes down to Brerton Jones' <strong>Proud Spell</strong> (L. Jones) and Godolphin's <strong>Music Note</strong> (S. Suroor). Each boast an incredible record that would be more than enough to win in most years. Proud Spell won a pair of Grade 1 races, the Kentucky Oaks and the Alabama Stakes (over Music Note), as well as a pair of Grade 2 races, the Fair Grounds Oaks and the Delaware Oaks. She ran third in both the Grade 1 Mother Goose (to Music Note; after being dq'd from 2nd) and the Grade 1 Ashland, and placed in both the Grade 2 Cotillion and the Grade 3 Silverbulletday. She hit the board in each of her 8 starts, all against graded competition, and took on the best fillies of her generation. Music Note, not to be outdone, won the Grade 1 Gazelle and the Grade 1 Mother Goose (against Proud Spell), as well as the Grade 1 CCA Oaks. She placed in the Grade 1 Alabama (to Proud Spell), and the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic. Differenting between the two is difficult. Music Note won more Grade 1 races (3 to 2), but Proud Spell won the biggest race for 3yo fillies, the Kentucky Oaks. Each defeated the other once. Music Note showed up in the Breeders' Cup, but didn't burst onto the graded stakes scene until June. Proud Spell skipped the Breeders' Cup, but ran each of her 8 starts against graded competition, starting in February. Neither has a true blemish or bad loss, however Proud Spell's loss to Seattle Smooth in the Cotillion hurts much more than Music Note's loss to Zenyatta and Cocoa Beach in the Breeders' Cup. In a toss-up this close, I'm inclined to go with Proud Spell because she danced more dances, but I won't be disappointed no matter who wins. It's impossible not to mention Kentucky Derby runner-up <strong>Eight Belles </strong>(L. Jones)<strong> </strong>here, as she may have been the best of them all. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">1. Proud Spell</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">2. Music Note</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">3. Eight Belles</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><strong>Turf Female</strong></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Not a very difficult one - Augustin Stable's <strong>Forever Together </strong>(J. Sheppard) won 3 Grade 1 races, including the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, the First Lady Stakes, and the Diana Stakes. She also placed in the Grade 1 Just a Game at Belmont. She earned $1.8 million during her 7 race campaign. The pool behind her is quite jumbled. All of the following won one Grade 1 race and could merit the second spot - <strong>Cocoa Beach</strong> (S. Suroor), <strong>Dynaforce</strong> (W. Mott), <strong>Goldikova</strong> (F. Head), <strong>Mauralakana</strong> (C. Clement), and <strong>Wait a While</strong> (T. Pletcher). I'm tossing Cocoa Beach from consideration as she only ran once on the surface worldwide in 2008. I'm tossing Dynaforce for her 1 for 5 overall record. Mauralakana flatted out after winning a Grade 1, two Grade 2's, and a Grade 3 earlier in the year. She also placed in a Grade 1. Goldikova would be the runner-up to Zarkava in a "Worldwide Turf Female" contest, but her one race in the States wasn't enough to sway me. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">1. Forever Together</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">2. Mauralakana (Fr)</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">3. Wait a While</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><strong>Turf Male</strong></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">I move to give this award to nobody. Please? If nobody deserves it, why hand it out for the sake of it. It's pretty bad when the leading contender is probably a European who made one start in the States, that being Ballymacoll Farm's <strong>Conduit</strong> (M. Stoute). The Breeders' Cup Turf winner was a Group 1 victor in Europe, but in most circumstances it's difficult to merit handing out an award to a European who made just one start here. This year may be the exception. I'm convinced that the most talented turf male in the United States is IEAH Stable's <strong>Kip Deville</strong> (R. Dutrow). Buuuut...he didn't show it too well in 2008. A one-time Grade 1 winner, Kip took the Makers Mark Mile in April, as well as the Grade 3 Poker Handicap in July, but ran 5th in the Woodbine Mile (CAN-Gr. I) before placing in the Breeders' Cup Mile. Nothing that he did in Hong Kong would make me any more inclined to vote for him, but it doesn't make me less inclined either. Marc Keller's <strong>Grand Couturier </strong>(R. Ribaudo) won a pair of Grade 1 races, including the Turf Classic at Belmont and Sword Dancer, but ran very poorly in the Grade 1 Man O War and Breeders' Cup Turf, where he was last of 11. But those 2 Grade 1 wins loom very, very large on his resume. <strong>Einstein</strong> (H. Pitts) is another with a resume deserving of consideration for this award. He went 6-3-2-0 on the turf in 2008, and those victories included scores in the Grade 1 Turf Classic at Churchill Downs and the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Stakes. He placed in the Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile, and the Grade 2 Firecracker Stakes, but more importantly doesn't have the poor losses that blemish Grand Couturier's resume. At the end of the day, I begrudgingly give him the nod in this category, with the European second. Grand Couturier needed to do better more than twice. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">1. Einstein (Brz)</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">2. Conduit (Ire)</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">3. Kip Deville</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><strong>Older Female</strong></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">This is probably the division where 1-3 are easiest to figure. Mr. & Mrs. Jerome Moss' <strong>Zenyatta</strong> (J. Shirreffs) danced every dance, won 4 Grade 1 races and 3 Grade 2 races, and beat all of her challengers for the award. Second comes down to Stronach Stable's <strong>Ginger Punch</strong> (R. Frankel) and Godolphin's <strong>Cocoa Beach</strong> (S. Suroor), but (and I may be choosing sentimentally here), I'm going with Ginger Punch for second and Cocoa Beach for third. Ginger Punch won 3 Grade 1 races, a Grade 2, placed in two more Grade 1 events, and also won the Sunshine Millions Distaff. She hit a wall at the end of the year, but her overall resume is quite outstanding. I also want to mention <strong>Hystericalady</strong> (J. Hollendorfer) in this post, even if there's nothing to say about her except she had a hell of a career. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">1. Zenyatta</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">2. Ginger Punch</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">3. Cocoa Beach (Chi) </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><strong>Older Male</strong></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">No way Stonestreet's <strong>Curlin</strong> (S. Asmussen) doesn't merit top billing. He won 4 Grade 1 races, went undefeated on the dirt, and earned just south of $5.4 million in 7 starts. His choke-job in the Breeders' Cup can be forgiven due to the surface. Tracy Farmer's <strong>Commentator</strong> (N. Zito) deserves to be mentioned, as does Peter Vegso's <strong>Go Between</strong> (W. Mott), and William Deburgh's <strong>Heatseeker</strong> (J. Hollendorfer), who was Curlin's biggest threat prior to his retirement. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">1. Curlin</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">2. Heatseeker (Ire)</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">3. Go Between</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><strong>Apprentice Jockey</strong></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">No real standouts in this category this year, but in 2008 we saw several apprentices who seem to have very bright futures. <strong>Pascacio "Paco" Lopez</strong>, a regular rider at Calder, led apprentices with 222 victories, and won the riding title for Calder's meet that ended October 19. <strong>Abel Mariano </strong>led all apprentices in earnings, and is second in victories with 189. <strong>Inez Karlsson</strong> ranks third in both categories. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">1. Pascacio Lopez</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">2. Abel Mariano</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">3. Inez Karlsson</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><strong>Breeder</strong></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">And all of the usual suspects are back for another run at the Eclipse Award for top breeder. Stronach's <strong>Adena Springs</strong> leads the nation in categories of starters, winners, seconds, thirds, and earnings, with nearly $19 million. Top Adena-bred runners in 2008 included Ginger Punch, Fatal Bullet, and Sugar Swirl. It's tough to overcome a stable with such outstanding statistics, but <strong>Stonerside</strong> just may have the caliber of runners to do just that. Bob McNair's former operation ranks second in earnings and is well behind others in starters and winners, but bred Breeders' Cup Classic champion Raven's Pass and Breeders' Cup Juvenile champion Midshipman. They also won Grade 1 placed colt Cowboy Cal. I'll vote for <strong>Juddmonte Farms</strong> to be third, as their worldwide operation bred such top runners as Champs Elysees, Ventura, Monzante, and First Defence. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">1. Stonerside Stable</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">2. Adena Springs</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">3. Juddmonte Farms</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><strong>Owner</strong></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Gotta go with Mike Iavaronne and Richard Schiavo's <strong>International Equine Acquisitions Holdings, Inc. (IEAH)</strong> as number one. Their stable included the caliber of runners like Big Brown, Benny the Bull, Kip Deville, Pure Clan, Court Vision, Frost Giant, Laragh, Ariege, and Acai. They're in a position to win as many as 3 or 4 Eclipse Awards, and have to be considered favorites in the Three-Year-Old Colt/Gelding category, the Sprinter category, and also have an outside shot at Turf Male and perhaps even Horse of the Year with Big Brown. Frank Stronach's <strong>Stronach Stables</strong> had another excellent year, and currently leads the nation in winners and earnings, with Ahmed Zayat's <strong>Zayat Stables</strong>. Zayat was represented in the Kentucky Derby by Z Humor and Z Fortune. Might as well give <strong>Jess Jackson</strong> a shoutout here too, with his campaign of Curlin.</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">1. IEAH Stables</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">2. Stronach Stables</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">3. Stonestreet Stables, LLC</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><strong>Trainer</strong></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">What does one go with here? The best numbers or the best training job(s)? <strong>Rick Dutrow Jr. </strong>won less than a third of the races that <strong>Steve Asmussen</strong> did, and at the same time he pissed off the majority of racing fans through his brash and sometimes insulting statements. He did, however, do a heck of a job keeping Big Brown's feet together, and soliciting 5 spectacular victories out of the colt. He also campaigned Kip Deville, Frost Giant, and Benny the Bull. His win percentage is higher than Asmussens or <strong>Todd Pletcher's</strong>. Asmussen had a spectacular season, winning 601 races (and counting), has earned over $23 million this year, and has been represented by such runners as Curlin, Pyro, Zanjero, Z Fortune, and many other stakes horses. Pletcher, who had a down year in 2008, still deserves a mention. I'd be much more inclined to overlook Asmussen's sheer statistics, but I have trouble overlooking every time where Dutrow ran his mouth and embarrassed himself, his clients, and the sport of horse racing. <strong>Bob Baffert </strong>did an excellent job readying Midnight Lute for the Breeders' Cup, and also did a great job with Tough Tiz's Sis and Indian Blessing, among others. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">1. Steve Asmussen</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">2. Rick Dutrow Jr.</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">3. Bob Baffert</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><strong>Jockey</strong></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Velazquez. Gomez. Bejarano. Prado. Dominguez. Albarado...heck, it's difficult to even pick a handful of finalists for this category. <strong>Garrett Gomez </strong>leads the nation in earnings by about $7 million. <strong>Ramon Dominguez </strong>is the only mainstream rider with more than 300 victories. <strong>Rafael Bejarano </strong>is riding 21% winners. Gomez won 4 Breeders' Cup races, and at the end of the day, he's still the guy I'd want on a horse if I owned one, but Raffy Bejarano is getting close to that level. He's already elite, but he's poised to take the top spot from GoGo very soon. <strong>Edgar Prado </strong>has once agan put together a very nice year.</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">1. Garrett Gomez</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">2. Rafael Bejarano</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">3. Edgar Prado </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Horse of the Year</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Last but not least is the Horse of the Year category. And while I guess a case can be made for several of them, it definitely comes down to two. Those two being probably Older Female champion <strong>Zenyatta</strong> and probable Older Male champion and reigning Horse of the Year, <strong>Curlin</strong>. Each won 4 Grade 1 races, Zenyatta's being the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic, the Apple Blossom Handicap, the Vanity, and the Lady's Secret Stakes. She also won 3 Grade 2 races. Curlin's Grade 1 scores included the Dubai World Cup, the Stephen Foster, the Woodward, and the Jockey Club Gold Cup. At times, Curlin was probably the most talented horse in the world, but I don't think that is the only basis of which this award should be given. Zenyatta towered over her competitors and showed up each and every start, against the best in her division - she beat Cocoa Beach, Tough Tiz's Sis, Ginger Punch, Music Note, and Hystericalady. She won on both the conventional dirt, and the synthetic tracks at Santa Anita, Hollywood, and DelMar. She refused to lose, and beat what is most likely one of the deepest fields we've ever seen in the Breeders' Cup Distaff/Ladies Classic. She never took on the males. Curlin, on the other hand, struggled a bit in the transition from the dirt to the turf and synthetics. He failed in the Breeders' Cup, and he struggled a bit after returning from Dubai. While the Distaff division in 2008 deep and talented, the older male division in 2008 was poor and subpar at best. It's easiest to give the award to the horse who surpassed $10,000,000 in career earnings in 2008, but the true Horse of the Year in 2008, the one that refused to lose, the one that showed adversity and handled multiple surfaces, the one that dominated her division and culminated it with a huge Breeders' Cup score, in my eyes, is Zenyatta. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">1. Zenyatta</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">2. Curlin</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">3. Big Brown</span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-78301427437307542872008-12-06T22:07:00.000-08:002008-12-06T23:15:54.982-08:00Graded Stakes Earnings & Saturday Recap<span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="font-size:85%;">About this time every year, there's always one whack-job (or as I prefer, dedicated horse racing fan) who goes through each of the graded stakes races for juveniles and compiles a list of Graded Stakes Earnings (GSE) in anticipation for next May's Kentucky Derby. And then all hell breaks loose and every amateur handicapper, fan, and pundit releases their official "Top 10" list. Or maybe its a "Derby Dozen." Or a "Bakers Dozen." Rarely you'll find one or two who rank 1-20. This year I'll be the guy who compiles the list...<br /><br />However, before I present that, I'd like to take a quick look at Saturday's races - <span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Saturday, December 6</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-style: italic;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-style: italic;"></span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-style: italic;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>With most of 2008's finest horses having already been retired or shelved until next spring, the pickings have been slim in trying to find top fields. <br /><br />Hollywood Park did an admirable job of compiling pretty nice fields for the Grade 1 Hollywood Turf Cup and the Grade 3 Native Diver Handicap. In the <span style="font-weight: bold;">Turf Cup</span>, favorite Champs Elysees closed quickly and decisively to beat a pretty bland field of turf marathoners. Actually, this field was marred by mediocrity and only one of the eight entrants had won their previous start. While Champs Elysees comes from a spectacular family (full brother to Banks Hill, Cacique, Intercontinental, & Dansili, as well as a half to Heat Haze), I've just never found myself to be impressed with him. It does look as if he's turned a corner on the turf, and if he stays in training next year the sky may be the limit against a pretty depleted division. How long until the sons of English Channel hit the track? In the <span style="font-weight: bold;">Native Diver</span>, I was very impressed with Slew's Tizzy. An absolute enigma of late, I'm really hoping that he's finally turned that corner and is poised for a huge 2009. He broke a 9 race losing streak in September, and looked very strong down the lane in this race. Also have to be impressed with Coolmore's Ball Four. He missed 18 months, and now he's back to the graded level at 7 years old - you don't see that too often. <br /><br />But without further adieu, here are those GSEs. Note that only American races for males (25 total) were included...<br /><br />1. Midshipman (Suroor/-)...$1,350,200<br />2. Square Eddie (O'Neill/Bejarano)...$736,000<br />3. Big Drama (Fawkes/Coa)...$450,000<br />4. Vineyard Haven (Suroor/-)...$405,000<br />5. Street Hero (Cho/Solis)...$393,000 ***OFF DERBY TRAIL - RETIRED***<br />6. Terrain (Stall/Theriot)...$344,830<br />7. West Side Bernie (Breen/Trujillo)...$210,760<br />8. Run Away and Hide (Werner/Albarado)...$193,429 ***OFF DERBY TRAIL - RETIRED***<br />9. Azul Leon (O'Neill/Bejarano)...$173,600<br />10. Charitable Man (McLaughlin/Garcia)...$150,000<br />11. Bittel Road (T) (Pletcher/M. Smith)...$144,000<br />12. Old Fashioned (Jones/Dominguez)...$120,000<br />13. Break Water Edison (Kimmel/Garcia)...$115,200<br />14. Munnings (Pletcher/Velazquez)...$105,000<br />15. Pioneerof the Nile (Mott/Desormeaux)...$103,250<br />16. Beethoven (Ward/Borel)...$99,994<br />17. Screen Your Friend (Flint/Borel)...$99,981<br />18. Elusive Bluff (T) (Guillot/M. Baze)...$95,580<br />19. Silent Valor (Pletcher/Velazquez)...$95,000<br />20. Desert Party (Harty/Prado)...$91,667<br />21. Cribnote (Violette/Maragh)...$90,000<br />22. Capt. Candyman Can (Wilkes/Leparoux)...$84,445<br />23. Stimulus Plan (Casse/Desormeaux)...$82,500<br />24. Coronet of a Baron (Harty/Nakatani)...$80,000<br />25. Mr. Rod (T) (Hendricks/Sutherland)...$69,300<br />26. Retap (Asmussen/Bridgmohan)...$64,600<br />27. Jack o' Lantern (Matlow/Enriquez)...$63,700 ***OFF DERBY TRAIL - INJURED***<br />28. Officer Ipod (A. Dutrow/Bravo)...$60,000<br />29. Flying Pegasus (Nicks/Velasquez)...$50,000<br />30. Driving Snow (GB) (T) (Miller/Albarado)...$40,000<br />30. Atomic Rain (Breen/Prado)...$40,000<br />32. Jose Adan (Suroor/-)...$37,900<br />33. Hello Broadway (Tagg/Coa)...$35,700<br />34. Believe in Hope (Ellis/Talamo)...$35,000<br />35. Garden District (f) (Pletcher/Velazquez)...$33,364<br />36. Lyin' Heart (Asmussen/Bridgmohan)...$33,002<br />37. Giant Oak (Block/Razo)...$32,256<br />38. Show Me the Cash (B. Brown/Castellano)...$31,860<br />39. Friesan Fire (Jones/Thompson)...$30,925<br />40. Gone Astray (McGaughey/Gomez)...$27,500<br />41. Deposer (Ire) (Best/Velasquez)...$25,000<br />42. Monty's Best (Baker/Albarado)...$21,553<br />43. Making Dreams (W. Solis/Valdivia)...$21,200<br />44. Advice (Pletcher/Douglas)...$20,845<br />45. Ninth Client (T) (Lukas/Leparoux)...$20,000<br />45. American Dance (Pletcher/Gomez)...$20,000<br />47. Zion (Asmussen/Bridgmohan)...$19,434<br />48. Gresham (J. Baker/Lanerie)...$18,188<br />49. Charlie's Moment (W. Solis/Court)...$18,000<br />50. Rereadthefootnotes (McLaughlin/Trujillo)...$16,500<br />51. Segal (Asmussen/Bridgmohan)...$16,126<br />52. Relatively Randy (T) (Donk/Velasquez)...$15,930<br />53. Reynaldothewizard (Harty/Leparoux)...$15,000<br />53. Southern Exchange (De Gannes/Gomez)...$15,000<br />53. Del Conte (Baffert/Espinoza)...$15,000<br />53. Majestic Blue (McLaughlin/Albarado)...$15,000<br />57. Girolamo (McLaughlin/Garcia)...$14,100<br />58. Fassnacht (Harrington/Rosario)...$12,720<br />59. Star of David (Asmussen/Bridgmohan)...$12,456<br />60. Royal Vindication (Hough/Castellano)...$11,850<br />61. Dream of Kaylee (Hess/Desormeaux)...$11,682<br />62. Just Like Biscuit (Moore/Borel)...$11,011<br />63. Ventana (Baffert/Smith)...$10,600<br />64. Vaquero (T) (Leahy/Hernandez Jr.)...$10,000<br />64. Idol Maker (Pletcher/Coa)...$10,000<br />66. Dueling Alex (Gambolatti/Marquez)...$9,750<br />67. Kelly Leak (Machowsky/Espinoza)...$9,000<br />67. Arashi Cat (Mullins/Potts)...$9,000<br />67. Bourbon Bay (T) (Drysdale/Bejarano)...$9,000<br />67. Hype (T) (Pletcher/M. Baze)...$9,000<br />71. Merkel (Asmussen/Bridgmohan)...$8,341<br />72. Theregoesjojo (McPeek/Albarado)...$8,063<br />73. Phosphorescent (Romans/Albarado)...$7,500<br />73. Join in the Dance (Pletcher/Velazquez)...$7,500<br />73. Notonthesamepage (Ward/Trujillo)...$7,500<br />76. Medaglia d'Onore (Sanders/Hill)...$7,255<br />77. Seismometer (Yakteen/Talamo)...$6,360<br />78. Hold Me Back (Mott/Velazquez)...$6,000<br />79. My Dominick James (Rivelli/Thornton)...$5,685<br />80. Proud Jefe (Amoss/Prado)...$5,500<br />81. Duke of Homberg (GB) (T) (Pelletan/Prado)...$5,465<br />82. Essenceofthemoon (Salzman/Camacho)...$5,004<br />83. Stormalory (Mott/Desoreamux)...$4,838<br />84. Brave Victory (Zito/Desormeaux)...$4,833<br />85. Pynaformer (T) (Kelly/Samyn)...$4,779<br />86. Wild Proof (Perkins/Lezcano)...$4,500<br />87. Tire Kicker (Hennig/Dominguez)...$3,555<br />88. Herr Mozart (T) (Mott/Maragh)...$3,186<br />89. Fu Peg He Rat (Sise/T. Baze)...$3,000<br />90. Tar Beach (McPeek/Mena)...$2,940<br />91. Kensei (Asmussen/Bridgmohan)...$2,500<br />91. High Mesa (Jones/Saez)...$2,500<br />93. Turbo Call (W. Solis/J. Garcia)...$2,120<br />94. Backbackbackgone (Miller/Bejarano)...$2,000<br />94. Rip Rap (Levine/Lezcano)...$2,000<br />94. Awesome Mich (Hennig/Castro)...$2,000<br />94. Insurgence (T) (Casse/Rosario)...$2,000<br />98. Jazzandthemagician (Romans/Mena)...$1,680<br />98. Coal Baron (Carroll/Albarado)...$1,680<br />98. Big Surf (Pletcher/Castanon)...$1,680<br />101. Cognito (Asmussen/Bridgmohan)...$1,666<br />102. General Quarters (McCarthy/Troilo)...$1,645<br />102. Silver Bayer (Ward/Castanon)...$1,645<br />104. A.P. Cardinal (Gambolati/Hill)...$1,600<br />105. His Greatness (Salazar/Solis)...$1,500<br />105. Ready Racer (Flint/Borel)...$1,500<br />105. Schleprock (Gulick/Karlsson)...$1,500<br />105. Investor (Byrne/Emigh)...$1,500<br />105. Malibu Maverick (Werner/Ferrer)...$1,500<br />105. My Man Moran (Quinn/Graham)...$1,500<br />111. Prince Charming (J. Jerkens/Lezcano)...$1,185<br />111. Forty Thieves (Klesaris/Velasquez)...$1,185<br />113. Mine All Mine (f) (Ward/Castanon)...$1,180<br />114. Sir Bubba (Napier/Thorwarth)...$1,000<br />115. Unsung Song (Hamm/Velasquez)...$750<br />116. Casey's On Call (Catalano/Baird)...$111<br />116. Chilliness (Tomlinson/Theriot)...$111<br /><br />(T) = majority of GSEs earned on turf<br />(f) = filly<br /><br />Well that's it - all 117 of them. Oh, and for those interested, they've combined to earn $7,094,530 in GSEs...<br /><br />Now, <span style="font-weight: bold;">GSE earners by trainer</span> (those with more than 1) -<br /><br />Todd Pletcher (10)<br />Steve Asmussen (8)<br />Kiaran McLaughlin (4)<br />William Mott (4)<br />Eoin Harty (3)<br />Saeed bin Suroor (3)<br />Larry Jones (3)<br />Walther Solis (3)<br />Wesley Ward (3)<br />Bob Baffert (2)<br />Kelly Breen (2)<br />Mark Casse (2)<br />Bernie Flint (2)<br />Cam Gambolati (2)<br />Mark Hennig (2)<br />Ken McPeek (2)<br />Doug O'Neill (2)<br />Dale Romans (2)<br />Ronny Werner (2)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">And By Sire</span><br /><br />Sky Mesa (6)<br />A.P. Indy (4)<br />Lion Heart (4)<br />More Than Ready (4)<br />Fusaichi Pegasus (3)<br />Read the Footnotes (3)<br />Unbridled's Song (3)<br />Vindication (3)<br />Bernstein (2)<br />Dixie Union (2)<br />Dynaformer (2)<br />Empire Maker (2)<br />Five Star Day (2)<br />Giant's Causeway (2)<br />Harlan's Holiday (2)<br />Lemon Drop Kid (2)<br />Malibu Moon (2)<br />Medaglia d'Oro (2)<br />Montbrook (2)<br />Mr. Greeley (2)<br />Sligo Bay (Ire) (2)<br />Smart Strike (2)<br />Speightstown (2)<br />Storm Cat (2)<br />Street Cry (Ire) (2)<br />Thunder Gulch (2)<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br /></span></span></span></span></span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-82963102953925571302008-11-22T22:22:00.000-08:002008-11-22T22:57:54.173-08:00NFL Plays - Week 12 & the Hollywood Prevue<span style="font-size:85%;">I do apologize for the lack of horse racing picks lately. Times have been crazy, but I really do hope to get some full card (or at least comprehensive weekend stakes) plays out there before long. I will offer one play for Sunday, as well as a few picks for NFL games....<br /><br /></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-size:85%;">Hollywood Prevue Stakes (Gr. III) </span></span><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /><br />All things considered, this race has made a considerable niche for itself in the Southern California juvenile schedule. Since 2000, victors of this 7f event have included multiple Grade 1 victor Lion Heart, champion Declan's Moon, Your Tent or Mine, and the talented, yet mismanaged, Massive Drama. The 2008 cast of contenders features a solid mix of known and unknown commodities. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Azul Leon</span> heads the list of the known. The deep closing son of Lion Heart will be looking to join his pops as a winner of this race, and he's got the talent to do so. The Doug O'Neill charge has won 2 of 3 his starts short of 8f, and just missed by a nose in the Best Pal Stakes (Gr. II). He's 2 for 2 at Hollywood Park, but this race won't be a cakewalk for him. I don't blame bettors if they look elsewhere. For me, elsewhere does not include 2/1 second choice <span style="font-weight: bold;">Backbackbackgone</span>. A name reminiscent of numerous Chris Berman highlights and Home Run Derby calls, I think the streak has to end here for him. He's 3 for 3 in his career, but the competition keeps getting closer at the wire. This is his longest race yet, and if that trend holds, they'll get by this time. One thing working in his favor is the lack of early speed in this race. Mark Casse trainee <span style="font-weight: bold;">Congor Bay </span>will stalk closely, but the others may be content to just allow those two to go along at a comfortable clip. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Arashi Cat, </span>by Fusaichi Pegasus, will surely appreciate the added distance and will be flying late - he's 5/1 on the morning line...give him a long look. I'm trying to make a case for Baffert's <span style="font-weight: bold;">Ventana</span>, a flashy maiden winner at Belmont who flopped in the Champagne Stakes (Gr. I) and did little to impress when 4th in the Goodman Stakes at Santa Anita. At 4/1, he's got the makings of an expensive colt who will be overbet due to his trainer and will need to improve significantly to matter here. <br /><br />1. Azul Leon<br />2. Arashi Cat<br />3. Backbackbackgone</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span></span><br /><br /><br /><br /></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-size:85%;">NFL Plays<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Indianapolis (+2.5) at San Diego </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /><br />I feel pretty good about this one. I figured Indy would be GIVING points against the Chargers, and I was very pleased to see that wasn't the case. San Diego's defense has struggled all season, but more importantly the Colts offense has hit its best stride, winning 3 straight. Have to be a bit concerned about the number of close games both teams have been playing this year, with the teams combined having 12 games separated by a touchdown or less. This is one of those games where I trust Peyton Manning, and assume that he will get it done in the final minutes. He comes through much more often than not. <br /><br />Quite a few other plays look pretty enticing -<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Washington </span>(- 3 1/2) should have no problems covering on the road against the hapless Seahawks. The 'Hawks are 1-4 at home this season, and even if they get Hasselbeck back, he'll be rusty and in for a long day against the tough 'Skins D. Also give solid consideration to <span style="font-weight: bold;">Carolina </span>(+1) at Atlanta, and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Tennessee </span>(-5) at home against the Jets. I haven't been able to figure out how the Titans are 10-0, but they keep getting the job done. I'd air on the side of caution with this game, though - the Jets are very confident off a win at rival New England and they bring a 4 game winning streak into Tennessee.<br /><br /><br />Until next time, good luck betting!</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br /></span></span></span></span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-52023461406084835582008-10-27T09:54:00.000-07:002008-10-27T10:52:58.628-07:00Breeders Cup Saturday Analysis<span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:85%;">Well, I would like to personally take this time to congratulate myself for absolutely getting killed at the windows. The only bet I cashed on all day was a $10 win play on a 2/1 shot in the 9th at Calder. So, I would like to give a shout-out to Hopeful Image (trainer Gerald Procino; jockey Herb McCauley) for getting up late to win that thrilling allowance. However, the rest of the day - nothin' doin for me. I was close on a few tris, but just couldn't get the job done. I'll do the trendy thing and blame the track - damn synthetics.</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Marathon</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">I did comment that Mike Mitchell is uber dangerous off the layoff, right? Both Church Service AND Big Booster hit the board, at odds of 10/1 each. The problem? I talked myself out of Church Service completely, thinking that Big Booster was the superior of the two. The bigger problem? I gave European allowance/handicap winner Muhannak absolutely no chance. I should have considered him, given the fact that he'd won on synthetics in Europe, but hindsight is always 20/20. Sixties Icon failed to run a step, and so did Delightful Kiss. Their inability to fire led to my ability to throw a bunch of tickets in the air. The tri in this one payed $987.10 for $1. Kudos to anyone that had it (bonus points if you admit to taking my advice on the Mitchell horses).</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Turf Sprint</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Did Jamie Theriot and Joe Talamo really cover that first quarter in 20.73? Did they really cover the second quarter in 21.08? I mean, I understand that Mr. Nightlinger and California Flag are amazingly fast, but that's ridiculous. Need less to say, they dropped like anchors when the field came running and finished 11th and 10th, respectively. I was so far off in this race, it's not even funny. My top 3 were Rouse the Cat, True to Tradition, and Salute the Count. They ran 12th, 7th, and 6th. I do have to give a ton of credit to Dave Hofmans and Richard Migliore for their efforts with the longshot winner Desert Code, who paid $75.00 to win. I gave him absolutely no shot, and if I had to handicap the race again, I'd still give him no shot. Kudos to two horses I've followed for some time, Diaboical and Storm Treasure for getting 2nd and 3rd, and filling out a $6,184 trifecta. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Dirt Mile</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">20 seconds into the race, I knew I was cooked. First of all, why was Eibar Coa on Lewis Michael instead of Rene Douglas? I need an answer to that. I feel like this is one of the races that I had absolutely nailed, but I still couldn't get the job done. I had a feeling Well Armed was sitting on a bad one, and I had taken a stand against Surf Cat as well. I boxed Lewis Michael, Albertus Maximus, and Rebellion in a $1 tri. First of all, what was Lewis Michael doing that close to the pace? Did Coa even see his Pat O'Brien? Did Coa understand that the track was most likely favoring closers? Why was he pressing the pace with Lewis Michael? They covered 6f in 1:08 3/5! If he gets the same trip that he did in the O'Brien, he hits the exacta easily. Rebellion really spiced up the tri at 18/1, and this would have been a nice one to have. I'll forever be bitter at Eibar Coa - mark my words. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"><strong>Mile</strong></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">All I can really say is wow. Goldikova is an absolute monster. For her to wait, slide through a tiny hole, and accelerate like she did...she's becoming something special. And let's consider that Zarkava beat her this year...twice. Don't think Zarkava was one of the best we've seen for a long time? Think again. Gotta give credit to Kip, and wasn't surprised to see Whatsthescript and US Ranger closing well. I made some cardinal mistakes when handicapping this one. Number one was that I gave Bold Chieftain a shot. I hate on Russell Baze 365 days a year, and yet this is the second time I've given him a shot on a big racing day (the other being either this year or last in the SA Derby) - he's screwed me both times. The only other mistake I made - I didn't key Kip and Goldikova up top over Whatsthescript in 3rd. I played it straight: Kip - Goldikova - Whatsthescript. Moving on...</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Juvenile</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Class held and speed held for once. This was the only race of the two days on the main track won by ANY horse who led or stalked the early pace. So if Midshipman stays in America, he just might turn into something pretty damn good. I wont go and jinx him by saying the words Triple Crown, thou...wait, I just did. Sorry Baffy! Terrain put in a good run too in getting 4th. I had keyed Street Hery & Midshipman over him in the tri, assuming Square Eddie would bounce like none other. This is about the time I should have realized it just wasn't my day. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Juvenile Turf</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Also know as the dartboard race. Isn't it always a kick in the pants to have picked out a few nice midpack horses/closers, only to see 2nd, 3rd, and 5th early? Europe ran 1-2 in this one, and Coronet of a Baron got 3rd. The only enjoyment that I got from the race was seeing my mother's face light up for about .04 seconds when the longshot I gave her, City Style (29/1), came flying into the screen toward the end of the race. He got 4th. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Sprint</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Midnight Lute should be revered as a legend. So should Bob Baffert. Horses aren't made to do what that duo did on Saturday. That horse was essentially unraced since last November. His start in the O'Brien was an absolute debacle, and the horse failed to run at all. I've been confident in my pal Fatal Bullet for weeks, and I'm proud as hell with how he ran. The public latched on, making him 5/1, but that horse ran lights out. I played a $2 straight tri in this one - Fatal Bullet - Midnight Lute - Street Boss. That didn't go over well.</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Turf</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Will be one of those races that I never forget. Coolmore enters rabbit to ensure honest pace. Rabbit takes off like his tail is on fire (fractions of 24.28, 47.06, 1:10.20). So, in theory, the horse he's trying to set things up for would be well behind him, waiting for the speed horse(s) and stalkers to wilt. But no, Soldier of Fortune is sitting right there, in 3rd, right off his rabbit. He ended up finishing 4th, and in some ways I'd consdier that to be a hell of a run. The winner, Conduit, is one of those horses that my gut kept telling me to bet, but I ignored it. Eagle Mountain, who ran 2nd, is the exact same situation. I'll give myself a light pat on the back because I nailed Dancing Forever for 3rd at 26/1. It sucked to see Better Talk Now (8th), Red Rocks (10th), and Grand Couturier (11th). </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Classic</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;">Sooooo....how about that Curlin! I'll be the first to admit I was pleased seeing him go down. Screw that, I was ecstatic! I actually thought for sure he was making a winning move around the turn, too. But my hat's off to Raven's Pass, Henrythenavigator, AND Tiago for running by him. Oh, and for what it's worth, I didn't have any of those 3 in any tri that I played. I dabbled in the Duke, Champs Elysees, Curlin, Colonel John, and Go Between, but I didn't tread on anything too heavily. The tri payed $2,395 for a buck...just wish I'd have used the Euros a lot heavier! Who'd have thought a pair of turf milers would end up running 1-2 in America's biggest main track handicap race? </span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-59672411657474570392008-10-24T20:05:00.001-07:002008-10-24T20:05:32.088-07:00Breeders' Cup Saturday Analysis P2<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">Breeders' Cup Mile</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /><br />This one looks to be a top class field. Even though Friday was dubbed 'Ladies Day,' at least two fell through the cracks, those being Fred Head's Irish-bred Goldikova and Bobby Frankel's Precious Kitten.<br /><br />The pace in here looks to be pretty swift - Daytona (6/1) will be up there, as will Thorn Song (12/1) and probably Precious Kitten (8/1). Expect defending champion Kip Deville (5/1) to sit just in behind them, as well as Bold Chieftain (15/1), and perhaps even Goldikova (3/1). I'd look to the closers, but I'm not too high on any of them. Shakis (10/1) is past his prime and needs a longer distance. War Monger (12/1) has disappointed all season, and Whatsthescript (4/1) faces a huge class test here. Coolmore's hope, U S Ranger (15/1) should not be dismissed at those odds. The two turn mile will be right up his alley, and he should appreciate the added distance.<br /><br />At this point, I'm just wishing Kip Deville would have shown something in his last. The race sets up beautifully for him, and he loves Santa Anita and the distance. His best is probably better than anyone else's.<br /><br />My first inclination is to go with Goldikova, but I'm always leary of Europeans at short prices in these things. But she's won 3 straight and ran a lot of good races to Zarkava in the spring.<br /><br /><b>The Play: </b>I think the top three in here are Goldikova, Whatsthescript, and Kip Deville. Box those three in the exacta, and then play them over 'all' in the trifecta, if you have the guts!<br /><br />1. Goldikova<br />2. Whatsthescript<br />3. U S Ranger<br /><br /></span><b><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">Breeders' Cup Juvenile </span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /><br />Finally a race that I have an opinion on. With the top East Coast juvenile, Vineyard Haven, staying home, I think this race comes down to two entrants - Midshipman (5/1) from Bob Baffert's barn, and Street Hero (6/1) from the barn of Myung Kwon Cho. They ran 1-2 in the local prep for this, the Grade 1 Norfolk Stakes, with Street Hero getting the nod that day. The morning lines on each of those are very generous.<br /><br /><b>Worst Bet : </b>I hate Munnings (7/2) in here, and I cringe at the fact that he's the ML favorite. By Speightstown, he's tough to love around two turns, even though Holy Bull is his damsire. He's been soundly defeated twice in the Hopeful and Champagne in New York, and faces the possibility of being boxed in on the rail or being forced to go too soon. I think he may be the most vulnerable favorite of the entire group.<br /><br /><b>Sleeper : </b>Terrain (20/1) is quickly becoming the type of horse that I love to follow. He's not fast, nor is he flashy, but he always seems to put in an honest effort. He ran 2nd in the wake of Square Eddie in the Breeders' Futurity (Gr. I) at Keeneland, and likes the synthetics. The stewards handed him a victory in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (Gr. III), and Theriot is a good rider who will sneak him up get a piece.<br /><br />1. Street Hero<br />2. Midshipman<br />3. Terrain<br /><br /></span><b><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf </span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /><br />Roll of the dice - going with the best American closers and the top Euro....<br /><br />1. Westphalia<br />2. Grand Adventure<br />3. Skipadate<br /><br /></span><b><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">Breeders' Cup Sprint </span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /><br />One of those races where I think the speed bias will come into effect. First Defence (12/1) is the epitome of cheap speed in here, Fabulous Strike (4/1) is fast and consistent, Black Seventeen (15/1) will be involved, and look for Fatal Bullet (6/1) to be around. I look for Fabulous Strike to drop out of it at the top of the lane, and open things up for the closers.<br /><br />Street Boss (3/1) has been a force in California all year, but he might come from too far back. I just don't trust him fully. Nor do I really trust Cost of Freedom (4/1). Midnight Lute (7/2) is hard to love off the layoff. I'm going with a lesser known horse here -<br /><br />1. Fatal Bullet<br />2. Cost of Freedom<br />3. Street Boss<br /><br /></span><b><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">Breeders' Cup Turf </span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /><br />In what always figures to a spirited race, a solid cast of 11 line up for this 12f event. Coolmore's Soldier of Fortune (7/2) has been named the ML favorite, and for good reason. He won the Group 1 Coronation Cup over Youmzain in June, but more importantly comes into this race fresh. He's only started 3 times in 2008, and ran 3rd in the Arc last out. Look for a big rally from him.<br /><br />1. Soldier of Fortune<br />2. Eagle Mountain<br />3. Dancing Forever<br /><br /></span><b><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">Breeders' Cup Classic </span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /><br />As you all will shortly learn, I really can't stand Curlin. He bugs me. But he should win this race pretty easily. The speed won't hold, so Fairbanks and Smooth Air are out. Champs Elysees is sitting on a big one I think. Same with Go Between.<br /><br />Curlin is in a class of his own, and I can't try to beat him. Simple as that. Put as much as you can on him!<br /><br />1. Curlin<br />2. Go Between<br />3. Champs Elysees</span></p>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-47724509990763791242008-10-24T15:57:00.000-07:002008-10-24T20:03:51.023-07:00Breeders' Cup - Friday roundup and Saturday Analysis P1<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">Wow, what can one say after Friday's races? All things considered, the results were very, very chalky. 4 of the 5 winners were under 5/1, but I still was able to turn a bit of a profit at the windows. I ended up wagering $112, and I returned $175.70. The trifecta in the F&M Sprint helped a lot, although I was disappointed that Miraculous Miss was unable to get up for 3rd at 38/1. I didn't do anything in the F&M Turf, but I didn't expect to. I was very disappointed to see Consequence slide to 7/2, as I bet her well before the races even began. Stardom Bound did very well for me, however I missed the tri in there as well when Dream Express got 2nd over Sky Diva. Sealy Hill ruined most of what I had going in the F&M Turf (although I'm pleased to see her finally run well), but I did make a little with a saver win bet on Forever Together. Can't believe they let her go off at 5/1! The Zenyatta/Cocoa Beach exacta only paid $6.70 for $1, but I expected it to be that low. I had boxed them with the hope that Cocoa Beach might knock off the champ, but that wasn't in the cards.<br /><br />So, what did we learn today? I think we learned this:<br /><br />* Speed didn't hold on the main track. As much as we've heard about the track playing fairly to all running styles, it didn't. Granted the speed horses weren't the stars in the races, however the majority flopped very badly. Indian Blessing held 2nd, but she's probably the most talented filly sprinter in the country. Dearest Trickski tanked and finished 11th in that race, C.S. Silk ran 7th in the Juvenile Fillies with Be Smart 13th and Palacio de Amor 14th. In the Ladies Classic, Bear Now ended up last, Santa Teresita second to last, and Hystericalady was 5th.<br /><br />* There was no real location preference. Horses stabled predominantly on the East Coast, and those who made their final preps on the East Coast won the Filly & Mare Sprint (Ventura), the Juvenile Fillies Turf (Maram), and the F&M Turf (Forever Together). The West Coasters won the Juvenile Fillies (Stardom Bound) and Ladies Classic (Zenyatta).<br /><br />* Of the 15 horses who hit the board, 8 made their final BC start in the East (Woodbine, Belmont), 3 in the Midwest (Keeneland), 3 in the West (Santa Anita), and 1 from Europe.<br /><br />* No real comments on European form. Heart Shaped outran her odds in the Juvenile Fillies Turf to just miss at 11/1, but April Pride and Beyond Our Reach, both from Europe, ran 11th and 12th in that race. Pursuit of Glory ran 11th in the Juvenile Fillies, and Halfway to Heaven disappointed as the favorite in the F&M Turf to run 7th. Visit ran well to get 4th in that race. Honestly that tells me nothing. It continues to be a pure preference thing (of the horse), as it's always been. It's also somewhat ironic how American bettors completely ignored the Europeans in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, sending them off at 11/1, 13/1, and 28/1, and then dismissed Visit at 17/1, but then they fell in love with Halfway to Heaven (5/2) in a very deep race, and Pursuit of Glory (8/1)<br /><br />With that pittance of information kept in mind, let's move on to Saturday -<br /><br /></span><b><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">Breeders' Cup Marathon </span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /><br />Honestly, I'm pretty surprised the Breeders' Cup even created this race. There's no 12f main track division anywhere in the world really, and the entrants resemble that. Of the American entrants, 5 of the 6 could have been had for any interested buyer at some point in their career by simply dropping a claim in the box. Only one of the Europeans has any real class, that being Jeremy Noseda's Sixties Icon, a winner of 3 straight Group 3 races who has never run on the main track.<br /><br />The race seems to be completely void of speed, with the most likely scenario seeing Joe Talamo husting longshot Booyah (30/1) to the front with Zappa (5/2) in some sort of pursuit. Zappa was going to be my pick in this race, but he figures to be hit heavily at the windows and he just doesn't offer the value I'm looking for.<br /><br />Over the years, Mike Mitchell has become one of my favorite trainers in California, and he sends out two here - Church Service (10/1) and Big Booster (9/2). He's named top riders on each - Edgar Prado and Rafael Bejarano - and I give each a big shot, but I'm having trouble differentiating between those two. Both are deep closers who are going to need some sort of pace to shoot at.<br /><br /><b>Best Bet: </b>Have to go with Sixties Icon here. He's got class and wants the distance. If he takes to the surface, he just may be the easiest winner of the day.<br /><br /><b>Worst Bet: </b>Wow, they all seem equally opportunistic here. I can make cases against the majority of the Americans, which isn't a good sign.<br /><br /><b>Sleeper: </b>I'm looking to Delightful Kiss to be my sleeper. At 8/1 on the ML he's got a chance to go off at a price, and he's fallen in love with the synthetics at Turfway Park and Golden Gate in his last two starts. Calvin Borel is named to ride, and he's won a pair of Grade 3 stakes with this colt. He'll spot the field early, but look for this gray gelding to be flying late!<br /><br />1. Sixties Icon (GB)<br />2. Delightful Kiss<br />3. Big Booster<br /><br /></span><b><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint </span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /><br />My handicapping nemesis has always been turf sprint races, and the Breeders' Cup was kind enough to schedule one of those for me. Gotta love the use of polar opposites, though - going from slow horses loping along to a 2:26 final time in the first race on the card to the quickest horses in the country flying out to a 1:11 in change on the turf in the second.<br /><br />Mr. Nightlinger (6/1) would be favored in this race, except he drew so poorly that he's nearly guaranteed to be wide throughout. The speedster has won 5 straight on the turf, all in wire-to-wire fashion, but that probably will not be the case here. Idiot Proof (8/1) loves to be close up, as does California Flag (15/1). That one just put on a scintillating show at Santa Anita on 9/24, getting 6.5f in 1:11 in the Morvich Handicap. A replication of that effort should get the job done. This race literally has the potential to go sub-:21 for the first quarter.<br /><br /><b>Best Bet: </b>Scott Lake's True to Tradition (15/1) stands a big shot in here. He's a winner of two straight, including the Nearctic Stakes (Gr. II) at Woodbine last out. He's also beaten Heros Reward and Rouse the Cat in his last two. Rouse the Cat (20/1) is also an interesting candidate. He picks up rider Edgar Prado after a near miss in the Nearctic Stakes. They'll both find their trips from behind the pacesetters.<br /><br /><b>Worst Bet: </b>Anyone of the speedballs or deep closers. Also expect Diabolical's odds to be too low based on name recognition.<br /><br />1. Rouse the Cat<br />2. True to Tradition<br />3. Salute the Count<br /><br />In honesty I could the majority of these coming through, though, and I'll be treading very lightly in this race.<br /><br /></span><b><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile </span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /><br />Now we at least get to some horses that the majority of fans have heard of. And hey, nothing like having a rare occurance in the race - how often do full brothers race against one another? That'll be the case when Doug O'Neill's duo of Slew's Tiznow (15/1) and Slew's Tizzy (20/1) enter the starting gate. Best of luck to Trevor Denman with that one.<br /><br />The favorite here will most likely be the classy Well Armed (3/1), and I think he'll come down off his ML odds a bit. Cases can be made for or against him. He's got the best credentials of anyone in this race, having won a Grade 1 last time out as well as a pair of Grade 2 races earlier this year. He won the Goodwood over this surface last out, and just missed in the Pacific Classic. The real question is whether or not he can cut back to 8f. I'm not overly worried, given that the race is run around two turns. The sailing will not be clear up front, however. Mast Track (6/1) will run even though he faced a quarter crack issue earlier this week, Slew's Tizzy might go to the front, and Two Step Salsa (15/1) is all speed. My Pal Charlie (20/1) also prefers to be close to the pace. That scenario could spell doom for Well Armed, or could at least soften him up for the deep closers in here.<br /><br /><b>Best Bet(s) : </b>I really like two horses in this race - Lewis Michael (5/1) and Albertus Maximus (4/1). I think the former will slide down from those odds, while the latter will head upward. Lewis Michael won the Pat O'Brien (Gr. II) at DelMar in August, and Catalano brings them back off the layoff at a huge percentage. He loves synthetics (7-3-3-0) and the distance (4-2-2-0). Look for him to come flying late. Albertus Maximus is a horse I'm not as high on, but he's got upside and is really coming into his own. He was flying late to get 3rd in the Goodwood, and his best is good enough to get a big piece.<br /><br /><b>Worst Bet : </b>Yes, you've heard of Pyro. Maybe you even saw him race. He's not good enough to win this, nor does he want this distance. Nor does he want this surface. Tout him to all of your friends, and then run to the teller and bet on somebody else. I also think Surf Cat (6/1) is a difficult horse to back. I'm a huge fan of the 6yo horse, but enough is enough for me backing him. He's won 2 of 11, yet continues to be backed heavily at the windows. The distance might just be ideal for him, but he's not a horse I'm going to go down backing.<br /><br />1. Lewis Michael<br />2. Well Armed<br />3. Albertus Maximus</span><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-size:85%;"> </span></span></span></span> </span></span></span></span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-36146506272777896382008-10-23T16:14:00.000-07:002008-10-23T18:34:09.276-07:00Breeders' Cup Ladies Day (10/24/08)<span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:85%;">I had originally itended to start this entry with a brief commentary regarding my thoughts on the whole "Ladies Day" format, but on second thought decided it was best to hold off formulating a true opinion until I see the attendance, handle, television ratings, etc. for the two days. So, without further adieu (who had a filly by Giant's Causeway this year), here are my selections - </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong>Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint</strong><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">Honestly, I'm not sure that they could have started off the day with a better race. This is a race that seems to have everything that a marquee race should have - quality speed, quality closers, fan favorites, and several possible winners. At first glance, it's very difficult to make a case against Bob Baffert's superstar filly Indian Blessing, who sits as the 2/1 morning line favorite. In races run at less than 8f, she's an undefeated 5 for 5. She's run four consecutive 100+ Beyer figures, but more importantly she's added another dimension to her running style - she now gives jockey Johhny Velazquez the option of rating behind other horses, whereas in the past she was hellbent on going to the lead. She's run over a synthetic just once, and it did result in a victory in the Santa Ynez Stakes (Gr. II), however that win was only by a nose. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">The pace in this race looks as if it will be quite quick - even with the defection of Indyanne (12/1), who was forced to scratch due to a minor illness. Longshot Dream Rush (20/1) has failed to progress from age 3 to age 4, yet she still is a classy filly with a ton of early speed. In this race last year, she blazed through fractions of :21 1/5 and :44 before finishing 5th. Unfortunately she has not been the same horse in 2008, and a win here by her would be a shock. Dearest Trickski (12/1), a winner of 4 of 5, will also be near the pace, however she'll need a career best to be competitive here. Don't count her out, though. She seems to be the forgotten horse in this race, and she's 6 for 8 on synthetic surfaces. La Tee (30/1) also prefers to be near the lead, as does Lady Sprinter (15/1), a multiple Group 1 winner in Argentina. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Most Likely: </strong>While Indian Blessing looms very large, I think the best bet in this race might just be Bobby Frankel's Ventura (5/1). She's run first or second in 5 of 6 starts stateside, and is a Grade 2 winner on a synthetic at this distance. She prepped for this race by taking on the males in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile, and she did a fine job of it by finishing 2nd. Her running style will suit her well on the surface, and at anything around the 5/1 she's worth a second glance. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Worst Bet: </strong>I really cant sit behind Intangaroo (9/2) in here, especially for one of the top prizes. She's definitely a talented filly, but I think she'll ultimately do her best running on conventional dirt surfaces. Her two biggest victories of the year - the Grade 1 Humana Distaff and Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes - came over the courses at Churchill Downs and Saratoga. She's only 3 for 11 lifetime on the synthetics, and her career high Beyer on the surface is a 93. She earned a 99 in both of her conventional dirt victories. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Sleeper: </strong>I think there are quite a few sleepers in this field. I've already discussed Dearest Trickski, but I think Tiz Elemental (20/1) is set to run a big one, as well as Lady Sprinter. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">1. Ventura</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">2. Indian Blessing</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">3. Dearest Trickski</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong>Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf</strong><br /><strong></strong><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">In what figures to be one of the least exciting races of the event, the Breeders' Cup has at least done well to entice a full field of fillies for this one. Unfortunately, most aren't that good. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Most Likely: </strong>You know, Laragh (7/2) ran such a powerful race last time out in the Jessamine at Keeneland that I just can't go against her here. Previously trained by Mark Casse, she ran an uninspired 5th in the Natalma Stakes (Gr. III) at Woodbine, but for some reason she's a different filly now. Plus there isn't much pace in here besides the Calder-shipper Renda (10/1), who looks in deep in her turf debut. C Karma (8/1) looms large as well. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Worst Bet: </strong>This looks to be one of those races where a bet for anyone other than Laragh, C Karma, Saucey Evening, or Heart Shaped is a bad bet. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Sleeper: </strong>In the event that the pace does heat up, I look for Consequence (8/1) to run a big one. She moved too wide to get the job done in the Ms Grillo (Gr. III) at Belmont but still contributed to a blanket finish in that race. She unleashed a strong 4f workout in :46 over the Santa Anita main track, and Saturday will be her first chance to run over a firm turf course. Her connections will ensure that her odds don't drift too high, and she should be considered strongly for a minor piece.</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">1. Laragh</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">2. Consequence</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">3. Heart Shaped</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">It's also very unfortunate that Russell Baze's mount, Atka (30/1), is on the outside looking in. It's always a pleasure to watch Russy tank at the highest level of racing and then run back to Northern California with his tail between his legs. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong>Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies</strong><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">In a race that historically goes to the premier horse in the crop, 12 of the 13 entrants will be looking to buck a significant trend among winners in this race. The favorite has won the last 6 runnings of this race, and 14 of 24 times overall. Overall, favorites are 24-14-1-4 (ITM 79.2%). On the other hand, second choices in the betting are 24-2-7-3 (ITM 50%, but only 25% since 2000). That means good things for Chris Paasch and his entrant Stardom Bound, who opens at 2/1 on the ML. She's won two straight, and her victories have been nothing short of exceptional. She should get some sort of pace to shoot at, with C.S. Silk (15/1), Be Smart (15/1), and Palacio de Amor (12/1) in the field. Outside of Stardom Bound, the wagering looks to be absolutely wide open. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">Doremifasollatido (15/1) won the Gr. II Matron Stakes, but draws a difficult post position outside of her 12 competitors. Similarly, Alcibiades Stakes (Gr. I) winner Dream Express (6/1) drew the 12 hole. Those posts may prove to be quite detrimental, especially for Doremifasollatido, who I'd prefer not to win anyway - unless Denman plans on singing her name down the lane, that is. Eh, on second thought, I just prathat he doesn't miss a horse making a huge run up the rail en route to a 10 length victory...again. Sky Diva (7/2) looks to be a notable adversary, but it's difficult to be positive about her chances given the way that 2nd choices in this race have run, as well as the fact that she's never run on a synthetic. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Worst Bet: </strong>It's got to be Doremifasollatido. The post is very bad, and she's either going to be further behind than she wants to be, or wider than she should be. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Sleeper: </strong>With a perceived short priced favorite, there should be many possible winners with enticing odds. The Lukas barn is very high on Be Smart (15/1), and I've read several respected handicappers throwing their support behind Van Lear Rose (30/1). For my sleeper, I'll go with Dale Romans' C.S. Silk (15/1). She won the Arlington-Washington Lassie (Gr. III) over the synthetic at Arlington Park, and comes into this with a ton of confidence, having won her last two by a combined 12 1/4 lengths. She should be able to work out a nice stalking trip, and will be the one that the winner has to catch. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">1. Stardom Bound</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">2. C.S. Silk</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">3. Van Lear Rose</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong>Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf</strong><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">In what figures to be an outstanding race, there are two that simply stand above the rest in my eyes. I would absolutely love to see Wait a While (3/1) take this race, yet I'm just not sure that she's capable. The pros with this one are many - she loves the Santa Anita turf (3 for 3 lifetime, including 2 Grade 1 wins), she loves firm going (8 for 12 lifetime), and she loves the distance (3 for 4 lifetime). She should work out the perfect trip, tucked in behind the frontrunners. She'll need her best, though, with classy fillies like Mauralakana (5/1), Forever Together (6/1), Halfway to Heaven (4/1), and Pure Clan (15/1) flying at her late. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Best Bet: </strong>So, with that said, I think the best bet in here is the aformentioned Forever Together. Her running style suits in this race, and she has never failed to fire since trainer Jonathan Sheppard put her on the turf in May. She won the First Lady Stakes (Gr. I) at Keeneland last out, and ran down the talented Precious Kitten in the process. She also came flying late to take the Diana (Gr. I) at Saratoga. She's untried at the distance, but her running style makes me think she is capable of winning at 10f. Leparoux chooses her over Pure Clan. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">I'm also looking for a big run out of Mauralakana, who lost all chance in her last when forced to rally prematurely to try and lasso a loose on the lead frontrunner. Britain's Halfway to Heaven will be dangerous as well. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">I honestly don't see a "worst bet" in this race. I don't think Vacare (10/1) will appreciate the distance, but her odds reflect that. Juddmonte's Visit (15/1) has never run this long, but again her odds reflect that. Sealy Hill (15/1) is simply outclassed. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Sleeper: </strong>If you ignore her 5th place finish in the Glen Falls (Gr. III), Dynaforce (6/1) is 3-1-2-0 in her starts on this side of the pond. She ran a great race in the Diana (Gr. I) only to be nipped by Forever Together late, and she ran exceptionally well in the New York Handicap (Gr. II), only to be nipped by Mauralakana at the wire. She'll drift up from 6/1 on the ML with some of the others taking money. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">1. Forever Together</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">2. Wait a While</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">3. Mauralakana</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><strong>Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic</strong><br /><strong></strong><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">In what figures to be the highlight of a great day of racing, the undefeated and untested Zenyatta (3/5) will look to stretch her winning streak to 9. She's already defeated the many of her biggest challengers, including Hystericalady (15/1) and Ginger Punch (9/2). </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Best Bet/Sleeper: </strong>If Zenyatta loses, I think it'll be to one of the Godolphin fillies - Cocoa Beach (8/1) or Music Note (6/1). Of the two, I prefer Cocoa Beach. By all accounts, she's working very well for this race, and is finally coming into her own. She defeated a very game Ginger Punch last out in the Beldame (Gr. I), and should be ready to fire a huge effort here. Hystericalady offers a ton of value if you can get her anywhere near 15/1. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">1. Zenyatta</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">2. Cocoa Beach</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">3. Ginger Punch</span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810366500314501969.post-61105802180396845982008-10-23T15:37:00.000-07:002008-10-23T15:59:47.462-07:00Me....who else?<span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family:verdana;">Well,</span> I guess the most logical place to start my initial foray into the worldwide blogosphere is a brief intoduction of myself - namely why the heck you should take the time to read what I have to say. I'm a 21 year old college senior pursuing a degree in Marketing. I've lived my entire life in dreary Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, but I do have to admit - the city has grown on me. I love it here. My passions in life are the same as others my age - family, friends, and sports, usually in that order. However, as former San Francisco Giants utility infielder Al Gallagher once said, "<em>There are three things in my life which I really love: God, my family, and baseball. The only problem - once baseball season starts, I change the order around a bit</em>." I guess I follow that philosophy a bit. If it comes down to a night of drinking with friends, or staying in to watch Game 6 of the Red Sox/Rays ALCS, I can be found on my couch. Oh, and don't even bother trying to get ahold of me during Saturday (or Friday) during the Breeders' Cup. </span><span style="font-size:85%;"> In 2003, I discovered and truly fell in love with horse racing. I could sidetrack here and go on about stories involving Kentucky Derby trips, Preakness trips, internet forums, new friends, and a myriad of stories ranging from hilarious to heartbreaking, </span><span style="font-size:85%;"> but that's not really the point of this. </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">I've been meaning to start a blog for years, and I guess I finally just decided that now was the right time to get around to writing it. I highly doubt that I'll be breaking any news here - I have no real sources in the industry, and in the event that I do hear something, I'm generally not at liberty to discuss it publically out of respect to the connections of the horse. However, I will do my best to fill that void with interesting commentaries and opinions, as well as handicapping advice and maybe even some new ideas for those in the industry. </span><span style="font-size:85%;">Plus, this blog will not be limited to horse racing - I plan on typing about whatever is on my mind - football, baseball, hockey, basketball, life, Lacey Chabert, and anything else that seems worthy of an opinion. So at this point, my own mother has probably stopped reading, so I'll cut this one short and work on my selections for Ladies' Day at the Breeders' Cup!</span>dustino140http://www.blogger.com/profile/06700759780111039819noreply@blogger.com0