Give Us One More Taste

As you've undoubtedly seen, because I highly doubt you live in a cave and don't either read online thoroughbred news outlets, peruse thoroughbred forums, or indulge in a little HRTV/TVG, Zenyatta continues to work out in her "retirement" at Hollywood Park, most recently going an easy 4f in :48 on January 6. The Daily Racing Form's Steve Anderson wrote an intriguing piece yesterday titled 'Works Fuel Speculation on Zenyatta' in which he speculates that there is a chance, slim is it may be, that Zenyatta's racing days might not be over. And while I completely believe that her retirement is concrete, I do thoroughly believe that her owners, Mr. & Mrs. Jerome S. Moss, should bring her back in 2010, and while I obviously don't have much of a leg to stand on in presenting my rationale, I've never even owned a horse, here is why I feel she should return in 2010.

1. She's Still Sound

One of the most common reasons that thoroughbreds retire is simply that they get hurt, and recuperation time is either too lengthy or too likely to decrease their level of skill that a decision is made to enter the world of breeding instead of trying to bring the horse back to the races. Thankfully, Zenyatta has navigated a 14 race career and has seemingly not yet been bitten by the injury bug. In fact, she's so sound that her connections are even willing to stretch her legs on the track in retirement, and one could surmise that if there was any concern regarding her condition, she wouldn't have worked three times since the Breeders' Cup.

2. She's Still Atop Her Game

Another common reason that horses are retired is that they lose their form. Just like human athletes, equine athletes are prone to losing a step or two as they age, and sometimes they even lose the interest in doing their 'job' (but more on that a little later). Zenyatta, who turned six as the ball dropped in New York City (she actually wont turn 6 until April), may very well be in the best form of her lifetime. Her Breeders' Cup Classic score was both the deepest field that she beat, but also the most strenuous race that she'd ever encountered, and also marked a new career best Beyer Speed Figure (112) for the mare. If her career was anything but still on an upswing, she wouldn't have done as well as she did that day. Heck, rider Mike Smith believes she still has more in reserve than she showed that day. Yes, Zenyatta is 6, and 6 is an age where thoroughbreds often begin to show signs of slowing down, but that's far from a fact in the game. We've seen more than a few 9 and 10 year olds win upper echelon Grade 1 races to say that aging is anything more than an individual trait that will catch up to some thoroughbreds quicker than it will catch up to others. It should be noted that Zenyatta has only run 14 times in her career, hardly a large number, and it's entirely conceivable that her best days are still ahead of her.

3. She Has No Financial Value Doing Anything Else

As much as we hate to admit it, money plays a bigger role in these decisions than we want to concede. And it makes sense - when you can send a mare like 2002 Horse of the Year, Azeri, to an auction and have the bidding reach several million dollars, you're making what seems to be a sound financial decision in retiring. Or when you can sell the foals of that mare individually for millions of dollars each, you look to have made the right call by sending her to be bred. But, when the majority of your racing plan revolves around a breed-to-race mentality, where you have no real intention of selling the mare or her foals, her value is minimized off the track. As soon as she no longer is capable of yielding dividends on the racetrack, there really isn't any way for her to make money for her owners. Now granted, the Mosses appear to be very financially well off, and they certainly will survive without the couple of million dollars one would figure Zenyatta to earn for them in 2010. They didn't get to where they are by making poor financial decisions, though. Zenyatta earned over $3.3M in an abbreviated 5-race 2009 campaign, and you'd have to think that nobody, not even somebody as rich as the Mosses, would want to give that up.

4. She Can Solidify Her Place In History

If Zenyatta is indeed retired, she'll retire as one of the best female horses of all-time, and in and of itself, that's one hell of an accomplishment. To be mentioned alongside names like Ruffian, Personal Ensign, Go for Wand, Lady's Secret, Azeri, Rachel Alexandra, Winning Colors, etc. is a testament to the talent, tenacity, and consistency Zenyatta brought to the track every time she went postward. However, how special would it be if Zenyatta were remembered as better than that lot? A 2010 campaign could accomplish that. With current earnings of $5,474,580, another strong season could supplant Curlin as the all-time North American leading money earner. With a current undefeated 14-for-14 record, she could definitely bypass Pepper's Pride's 19-for-19 record as the winningest contemporary North American thoroughbred without a loss. Those are two extremely prestigious tangible records that Zenyatta could hold if she returned in 2010, as well as all of the intangibles (best female horse ever?), and I wouldn't bet against Zenyatta achieving all of that. You've got something so close to the cusp of true greatness, so it almost seems odd to shy away from it now. She was campaigned in a way that made it extremely clear that preserving her record mattered to the connections, and it worked. She still brings an unblemished resume to the table each and every time I look at her past performances, but at this point, why not work on making her resume just a bit stronger?

5. Breed to Race Rarely Works

One belief is that the Mosses want to retire Zenyatta because they can't wait to race her offspring. And while it would be breathtaking to see a son of Zenyatta win the Kentucky Derby, or a daughter of hers become a champion, it's not exactly likely. At all. The notion that the best horses conceive the best horses makes perfect sense in theory, but somewhere along the way, luck plays a huge role in the process. By all intents and purposes, Zenyatta herself is an example of this. Not overly-regally bred, Zenyatta sold for $60,000 at auction as a yearling, and nobody would have ever guessed that she'd become the mare that she is today. Breeding is a cruel, cruel game, and just because you're a superstar female horse, it doesn't mean you're going to get any breaks in the breeding shed. Just take a look at these recent examples -

• Bird Town, winner of the 2003 Kentucky Oaks and Champion 3yo Filly that year, was first bred in 2004. She's yet to have an offspring record a workout, let alone race.
• Winning Colors, winner of the 1988 Kentucky Derby and Champion 3yo Filly that year failed to produce a graded stakes winner amongst her progeny.
  
• Champion Older Female in 1998, Escena, has yet to have a any of her progeny even compete in a stakes race.
  
• The amazing Personal Ensign, one of the best female horses of all time (if not the best), produced just one millionaire, that being My Flag.
  
• Lady's Secret, an 11-time Grade 1 winner, no foals who were notable on the racetrack.
  

The list could be much longer than that, but my point is - just because you're a great racemare, it doesn't mean you're going to be a great producer, or even a good producer. Why give up on something that is nearly a sure thing (that being that Zenyatta is going to be an incredible racehorse) for a complete unknown (that being Zenyatta's offspring). It is infinitely more conceivable that Zenyatta would win the Breeders' Cup Classic in 2010 than the foal she produced in 2010 would be a graded stakes performer, let alone a Kentucky Derby winner. What's the rush?

6. She Loves her Job

I feel like I've saved the best for last, but Zenyatta LOVES her job. She loves going out to the track, she loves working out once a week, and she loves trouncing the competition whenever he schedule allows for it. SO my question is...why rush to take that away from her? This is a mare that was so miserable just standing in her stall that her connections had to start working her out again, just to calm her down a bit. Being a racehorse is all she knows, but most importantly, its something that she wants to do. Some horses tend to lose interest and stop trying as they get older. That's not the case with Zenyatta. Zenyatta is the exact opposite. If you loved your job, and wanted to do it every chance you got (seems way too utopian, huh?), would you want that to be taken from you? Because that's what seems to be happening to Zenyatta. She's telling the people that work with her on a daily basis that she wants to go out and race, and instead she's going to go be a pasture ornament somewhere in Kentucky. Surely she'll adapt in time, but again, what's the rush? People say she deserves her retirement, and sure she does. She's accomplished more than just about any other thoroughbred in the history of racing in North America. But at the same time, why not at least try and give the athlete a say? If she wants to run, and again, all parties involved with her have seemingly conceded that she does, why not give her the opportunity?

7. Because Horse Racing Needs The Help

No, it's not the Mosses responsibility to 'save' horse racing, and no, Zenyatta coming back in 2010 wouldn't be anything more than putting a bandaid on a gunshot wound, but it would help. For whatever reason, the national media didn't latch onto the Zenyatta story until the Classic. One could say that's their loss, and it is, but it's also horse racing's loss if the attention that would be given to her goes wasted. Horse racing doesn't receive much attention at all, but when a horse does something to deserve attention, outlets like ESPN and others do give them their due. We saw this with Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, and even Curlin to a degree, and we're seeing it now with Rachel Alexandra. And if she returned in 2010, we'd see it with Zenyatta. Televised races, mentions on SportsCenter/other news shows, regular online updates on websites not dedicated to thoroughbred racing...it couldn't hurt at all. And as much of a pipe dream it is, a Zenyatta/Rachel Alexandra showdown would be huge for horse racing. I won't go and compare it to races won decades ago, but it wouldn't shock me if ratings and attendance for that race, depending on the venue, matched some of the best figures that we've seen in recent history. I won't say racing needs that race to happen, but it'd be better off if it did. Like I said, the Mosses owe us or the sport absolutely nothing. These sporting owners were one of only two in the last decade to bring a non-gelding Kentucky Derby winner back to race as an older horse, and they also campaigned Tiago through his five-year-old campaign, and ran Zenyatta in the Classic when they could have played it easy and gone for the Ladies' Classic.

As I conceded earlier, Zenyatta won't be back in 2010. Well I shouldn't speak in such absolutes, but it'd completely shock me if we saw her in the starting gate ever again. With that said, I will say that there are a lot of reasons that Zenyatta should return in 2010.

Dare to dream, I guess.

Breeders' Cup Ladies Day (10/24/08)

I had originally itended to start this entry with a brief commentary regarding my thoughts on the whole "Ladies Day" format, but on second thought decided it was best to hold off formulating a true opinion until I see the attendance, handle, television ratings, etc. for the two days. So, without further adieu (who had a filly by Giant's Causeway this year), here are my selections -

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

Honestly, I'm not sure that they could have started off the day with a better race. This is a race that seems to have everything that a marquee race should have - quality speed, quality closers, fan favorites, and several possible winners. At first glance, it's very difficult to make a case against Bob Baffert's superstar filly Indian Blessing, who sits as the 2/1 morning line favorite. In races run at less than 8f, she's an undefeated 5 for 5. She's run four consecutive 100+ Beyer figures, but more importantly she's added another dimension to her running style - she now gives jockey Johhny Velazquez the option of rating behind other horses, whereas in the past she was hellbent on going to the lead. She's run over a synthetic just once, and it did result in a victory in the Santa Ynez Stakes (Gr. II), however that win was only by a nose.

The pace in this race looks as if it will be quite quick - even with the defection of Indyanne (12/1), who was forced to scratch due to a minor illness. Longshot Dream Rush (20/1) has failed to progress from age 3 to age 4, yet she still is a classy filly with a ton of early speed. In this race last year, she blazed through fractions of :21 1/5 and :44 before finishing 5th. Unfortunately she has not been the same horse in 2008, and a win here by her would be a shock. Dearest Trickski (12/1), a winner of 4 of 5, will also be near the pace, however she'll need a career best to be competitive here. Don't count her out, though. She seems to be the forgotten horse in this race, and she's 6 for 8 on synthetic surfaces. La Tee (30/1) also prefers to be near the lead, as does Lady Sprinter (15/1), a multiple Group 1 winner in Argentina.

Most Likely: While Indian Blessing looms very large, I think the best bet in this race might just be Bobby Frankel's Ventura (5/1). She's run first or second in 5 of 6 starts stateside, and is a Grade 2 winner on a synthetic at this distance. She prepped for this race by taking on the males in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile, and she did a fine job of it by finishing 2nd. Her running style will suit her well on the surface, and at anything around the 5/1 she's worth a second glance.

Worst Bet: I really cant sit behind Intangaroo (9/2) in here, especially for one of the top prizes. She's definitely a talented filly, but I think she'll ultimately do her best running on conventional dirt surfaces. Her two biggest victories of the year - the Grade 1 Humana Distaff and Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes - came over the courses at Churchill Downs and Saratoga. She's only 3 for 11 lifetime on the synthetics, and her career high Beyer on the surface is a 93. She earned a 99 in both of her conventional dirt victories.

Sleeper: I think there are quite a few sleepers in this field. I've already discussed Dearest Trickski, but I think Tiz Elemental (20/1) is set to run a big one, as well as Lady Sprinter.

1. Ventura
2. Indian Blessing
3. Dearest Trickski

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

In what figures to be one of the least exciting races of the event, the Breeders' Cup has at least done well to entice a full field of fillies for this one. Unfortunately, most aren't that good.

Most Likely: You know, Laragh (7/2) ran such a powerful race last time out in the Jessamine at Keeneland that I just can't go against her here. Previously trained by Mark Casse, she ran an uninspired 5th in the Natalma Stakes (Gr. III) at Woodbine, but for some reason she's a different filly now. Plus there isn't much pace in here besides the Calder-shipper Renda (10/1), who looks in deep in her turf debut. C Karma (8/1) looms large as well.

Worst Bet: This looks to be one of those races where a bet for anyone other than Laragh, C Karma, Saucey Evening, or Heart Shaped is a bad bet.

Sleeper: In the event that the pace does heat up, I look for Consequence (8/1) to run a big one. She moved too wide to get the job done in the Ms Grillo (Gr. III) at Belmont but still contributed to a blanket finish in that race. She unleashed a strong 4f workout in :46 over the Santa Anita main track, and Saturday will be her first chance to run over a firm turf course. Her connections will ensure that her odds don't drift too high, and she should be considered strongly for a minor piece.

1. Laragh
2. Consequence
3. Heart Shaped

It's also very unfortunate that Russell Baze's mount, Atka (30/1), is on the outside looking in. It's always a pleasure to watch Russy tank at the highest level of racing and then run back to Northern California with his tail between his legs.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

In a race that historically goes to the premier horse in the crop, 12 of the 13 entrants will be looking to buck a significant trend among winners in this race. The favorite has won the last 6 runnings of this race, and 14 of 24 times overall. Overall, favorites are 24-14-1-4 (ITM 79.2%). On the other hand, second choices in the betting are 24-2-7-3 (ITM 50%, but only 25% since 2000). That means good things for Chris Paasch and his entrant Stardom Bound, who opens at 2/1 on the ML. She's won two straight, and her victories have been nothing short of exceptional. She should get some sort of pace to shoot at, with C.S. Silk (15/1), Be Smart (15/1), and Palacio de Amor (12/1) in the field. Outside of Stardom Bound, the wagering looks to be absolutely wide open.

Doremifasollatido (15/1) won the Gr. II Matron Stakes, but draws a difficult post position outside of her 12 competitors. Similarly, Alcibiades Stakes (Gr. I) winner Dream Express (6/1) drew the 12 hole. Those posts may prove to be quite detrimental, especially for Doremifasollatido, who I'd prefer not to win anyway - unless Denman plans on singing her name down the lane, that is. Eh, on second thought, I just prathat he doesn't miss a horse making a huge run up the rail en route to a 10 length victory...again. Sky Diva (7/2) looks to be a notable adversary, but it's difficult to be positive about her chances given the way that 2nd choices in this race have run, as well as the fact that she's never run on a synthetic.

Worst Bet: It's got to be Doremifasollatido. The post is very bad, and she's either going to be further behind than she wants to be, or wider than she should be.

Sleeper: With a perceived short priced favorite, there should be many possible winners with enticing odds. The Lukas barn is very high on Be Smart (15/1), and I've read several respected handicappers throwing their support behind Van Lear Rose (30/1). For my sleeper, I'll go with Dale Romans' C.S. Silk (15/1). She won the Arlington-Washington Lassie (Gr. III) over the synthetic at Arlington Park, and comes into this with a ton of confidence, having won her last two by a combined 12 1/4 lengths. She should be able to work out a nice stalking trip, and will be the one that the winner has to catch.

1. Stardom Bound
2. C.S. Silk
3. Van Lear Rose

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf

In what figures to be an outstanding race, there are two that simply stand above the rest in my eyes. I would absolutely love to see Wait a While (3/1) take this race, yet I'm just not sure that she's capable. The pros with this one are many - she loves the Santa Anita turf (3 for 3 lifetime, including 2 Grade 1 wins), she loves firm going (8 for 12 lifetime), and she loves the distance (3 for 4 lifetime). She should work out the perfect trip, tucked in behind the frontrunners. She'll need her best, though, with classy fillies like Mauralakana (5/1), Forever Together (6/1), Halfway to Heaven (4/1), and Pure Clan (15/1) flying at her late.

Best Bet: So, with that said, I think the best bet in here is the aformentioned Forever Together. Her running style suits in this race, and she has never failed to fire since trainer Jonathan Sheppard put her on the turf in May. She won the First Lady Stakes (Gr. I) at Keeneland last out, and ran down the talented Precious Kitten in the process. She also came flying late to take the Diana (Gr. I) at Saratoga. She's untried at the distance, but her running style makes me think she is capable of winning at 10f. Leparoux chooses her over Pure Clan.

I'm also looking for a big run out of Mauralakana, who lost all chance in her last when forced to rally prematurely to try and lasso a loose on the lead frontrunner. Britain's Halfway to Heaven will be dangerous as well.

I honestly don't see a "worst bet" in this race. I don't think Vacare (10/1) will appreciate the distance, but her odds reflect that. Juddmonte's Visit (15/1) has never run this long, but again her odds reflect that. Sealy Hill (15/1) is simply outclassed.

Sleeper: If you ignore her 5th place finish in the Glen Falls (Gr. III), Dynaforce (6/1) is 3-1-2-0 in her starts on this side of the pond. She ran a great race in the Diana (Gr. I) only to be nipped by Forever Together late, and she ran exceptionally well in the New York Handicap (Gr. II), only to be nipped by Mauralakana at the wire. She'll drift up from 6/1 on the ML with some of the others taking money.

1. Forever Together
2. Wait a While
3. Mauralakana

Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic

In what figures to be the highlight of a great day of racing, the undefeated and untested Zenyatta (3/5) will look to stretch her winning streak to 9. She's already defeated the many of her biggest challengers, including Hystericalady (15/1) and Ginger Punch (9/2).

Best Bet/Sleeper: If Zenyatta loses, I think it'll be to one of the Godolphin fillies - Cocoa Beach (8/1) or Music Note (6/1). Of the two, I prefer Cocoa Beach. By all accounts, she's working very well for this race, and is finally coming into her own. She defeated a very game Ginger Punch last out in the Beldame (Gr. I), and should be ready to fire a huge effort here. Hystericalady offers a ton of value if you can get her anywhere near 15/1.

1. Zenyatta
2. Cocoa Beach
3. Ginger Punch