Gulfstream Park 1.31.09

So, I guess I've found myself in a bit of a handicapping rut. I haven't bet a race since my Saturday Breeders' Cup debacle, but I think I'm ready to get back into the action. I've been waiting for Nicanor's debut ever since I heard that they were indeed going to move forward with his racing career, mainly because I'm dying to bet against such a short-priced and vulnerable debut favorite. The card also features the Grade I Donn, the Grade III Holy Bull, and the seasonal debut of the highly regarded Well Positioned.

Race 1

The connections who delivered Big Brown to the world before selling him to IEAH Stable's paid $340,000 for #4 Well Positioned, a nicely bred son of Awesome Again, out of a Holy Bull mare. After running somewhat poorly in his career debut, he woke up at Aqueduct on November 22 with an overpowering 11 1/4 length win. He's worked 5 times for Patrick Reynolds since, including a 6f move in 1:13 4/5 on 1/25. Aqueduct form has been a cause for concern at Gulfstream thus far, but I'm not sure that makes him a bet against, even at likely low odds. Top-trainer Todd Pletcher has a pretty talented duo making their seasonal debuts. #7 Take the Points (3/1) breaks from the outside post and looks to be a very viable alternative. The son of Even the Score broke his maiden at Gulfstream against the talented Nowhere to Hide (who goes later in the Holy Bull) last out, and keeps Prado aboard to ride. #6 Masala (4/1) from the Pletcher barn broke his maiden at Aqueduct at second asking in the mud, and like his stablemate he shows 6 works at Palm Meadows. Either could spring the minor upset at a better price. #3 Cinnamon Road (4/1) is intriguing if nothing else. The Calder based son of Delaware Township freaked out last time with a 14 1/4 length win against 35k claimers, and earned a 95 Beyer for his troubles. His Beyer progression heading into that one was 65, 77, 72, but in October '08 he threw up an 89 Beyer in a starter allowance. He keeps Velazquez, but going wire-to-wire against these will be no easy task. I wouldn't mind seeing him soften up Well Positioned, though.

#7 Take the Points
#6 Masala
#4 Well Positioned

Race 2

Deep 8.5f 35K claiming race on the grass drew 12 entrants. Quite a few are capable. The first one that stands out is #7 Bang Bang Bang. He's been a part of the exacta in all 3 of his turf starts, and owns Beyers of 88, 86, 86 on the surface. He picks up the services of Alan Garcia, and has been working forwardly at Palm Meadows for his 09 bow. Will benefit from a possible relaxed pace scenario. A deep closer who has all the tools to take this is #11 Don'twait Toolong (6/1). The Nafzger/Borel combo teams up here with this gelded son of War Chant. He drops in for the lowest price of a career where he's hit the board in 15 of 21, including 9 of 15 on the green and 4 of 5 at the distance. Borel knows the horse, has ridden him 8 times but has never won with him - that's alright though, not many jocks have - he's 2 for 21 lifetime. He'll be flying late, though. Tough to love up top given his record, though.

#7 Bang Bang Bang
#11 Don'twait Toolong

Race 3

Maidens, maidens, maidens...but it looks as if there are prices to be had. The favorite is likely to be Zito's #4 Just a Coincidence (3/1), by Forestry. He tired badly last time routing at Churchill, and cuts back to sprint distances where he's 3-0-2-1 lifetime. Problem is, he's 0 for 4 now and it's quickly becoming that time to question his ability to get the job done at all. I'll play him underneath, because he looks too strong to run off the board. Romans' #2 Bobby B. Goode (6/1) intrigues a bit. He picks up Albarado and seems to have solid gate speed. He could very well be one to catch if none of the firsters come out flying. Kelly Breen's #9 Mighty Score (6/1) could play a role. Ran 4th in his debut to Checklist, but his 3f in 33 3/5 work on 1/25 says he's ready to run a big one. #8 Tapis Magnique (8/1) is a firster from the Mott barn. His sire, Speightstown, does well with firsters and he's got Velazquez aboard.

#6 Mighty Score
#8 Tapis Magnique
#4 Just a Coincidence

Race 4

No real feelings on this race, but will go with #8 Yippety Yip (5/1) who's dropping in class.

Race 5

No thanks

Race 6

#4 Fullofsong

Race 7

Can't say I have much of an opinion in this race. The logical selections here, #11 Beethoven (4/1) and #10 West Side Bernie (3/1) drew poorly on the outside, and will be hindered with lost ground with such a short run into the first turn. I honestly think the most talented one in here could be Pletcher's #8 Idol Maker (6/1), and I'm slowly selling myself on him. He debuted brilliantly at Belmont, earned an 87 Beyer going 8f and beat Nowhere to Hide convincingly. Was tossed into the deep end and sank against Old Fashioned in the Gr. II Remsen, and then was sent to the lead and faded last out in an allowance. Toss the last because of the ride, and he's still got a lot to prove especially with that 13 length Remsen loss on his resume. #2 Danger to Society (5/1) is my tentative pick. The son of Harlan's Holiday is 2 for 2 lifetime, including an impressive 9f allowance win last time out in which he put up an 86 Beyer. I just don't like him all that much, though, especially down the line. But his best may be enough to win here. #9 Nowhere to Hide (8/1) is a Zito-trainee who finally got the job done last out, but it difficult to love. 9f may be stretching it for the son of Vindication, who's never run beyond 8f and needed a weaker Calder field to break his maiden after going 0 for 4 on the NYRA circuit. West Side Bernie (3/1) is good, but probably not good enough from the post. He ran 6th in the BC Juvenile and backed that up with a 2nd in the Grade III Delta Jackpot and continues to work lights out for Kelly Breen. Look out for #5 El Crespo (12/1). The son of A.P. Indy has yet to try the dirt, but showed talent on the grass. A half to a pair of turf stakes winners including Rey de Cafe. A.P. Indy suggests dirt wont be an issue for the George Arnold-trainee, but that's easier said than done.

#2 Danger to Society
#10 West Side Bernie
#8 Idol Maker
#5 El Crespo

Race 8

So let me ask you a question - you're handicapping a maiden race full of first time starters. One is trained by a guy who wins with 2% of his debut starters, is by a stallion who isn't known for quick horses, and has been working well, but not overly well - does he really deserve to be the likely favorite? When he's Barbaro's little brother, though, sometime stats go out the window. I've been looking forward to betting against, and I still think that's the best bet here. #10 Dubinsky (7/2) is a good looking son of Toccet who would be around 2/1 without Nicanor in the field. #3 Andiron (6/1) absolutely loathed the synthetic track in his debut, but the half to The Cliff's Edge (by A.P. Indy) is still highly regarded with his trainer, the legendary Bobby Frankel. I'm looking for a reversal. #1 Unbridled Cardinal (20/1) is a 3/4 to Rockport Harbor and lost all hope in his debut by blowing the break. He's in Zito's hands, ridden by Leparoux, and at 20/1, why not?

#10 Dubinsky
#1 Unbridled Cardinal
#3 Andiron

Race 9

A rousing rendition of the prestigious Donn Handicap (Gr. I). At first glance, a case can be made for many of these. The first horse who jumped out at me is one that I'm actually discounting now, that being #2 Albertus Maximus (4/1). The recent Shadwell purchase came into his own in the fall, winning a pair of races including the $1,000,000 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, and he was moving late against Tiago and Well Armed in the Grade I Goodwood. Furthermore, a look back in his PPs shows a nice maiden score, complete with a 92 Beyer, on the traditional dirt. My concerns come from his 0 for 3 record at the distance, as well as the significant turn around he saw in the care of Vladimir Cerin. Red flags go up for me there...Cerin has a bit of a reputation, and anytime a horse jumps up that much, I get a little sketpical. Now that he's in McLaughlin's hands, I'm expecting a bit of a regression - plus it must be noted that this race is being used as a prep for Dubai and he's not likely 100%. He also loses Gomez for Alan Garcia. I keep coming back to #7 Arson Squad (3/1). He's 3 for 3 on the dirt at 9f, has been a new horse for Dutrow on the conventional dirt, and is the best form he's been in for years. He blewout 3f on 1/29 and I can't wait to see him run. The likely favorite is #10 Einstein, but I still feel he's overrated on the dirt. He wouldn't have won the Grade II Clark last out if Commentator had run a race remniscent to what he'd done in the Mass Cap or Whitney. The problem is, none of these are spectacular enough to really see knocking him off even if he can replicate his Clark win or Foster loss to Curlin. I just cant find myself having enough faith in him to use him up top, and I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't fire at all. Call me crazy, but I've yet to give up on #3 Anak Nakal (10/1). He is the same horse who finally seemed to have things figured out when he won the PA Derby (Gr. II) and placed to Arson Squad in the Meadowlands Cup (Gr. II). Toss the Clark, and accept that the Hals Hope (Gr. III) was too short for him, and he might have a fighting chance at a lower prize. Tough call on him. #6 On Board Again offers price at 20/1, and just might be dangerous. He missed all of 2007 and half of 2008, but is back in good form and Frankel wouldn't put him here if he didn't think he was ready.

#7 Arson Sqaud
#4 Bullsbay
#3 Anak Nakal

Race 10

If you're not out of money yet, look to #6 Whitty Woman to salvage your day!

2009 "Handicap" Division

Alright, so lets get all of the "handi-crap" jokes out of our system now. It can't really be that bad, can it? Well, even with the downgrading of the Suburban Handicap to a Grade 2 event, by my count there are still 11 Grade 1 races in 2009 in what I would call the "handicap" division. That's not including Grade 1 mile races such as the Metropolitan Mile or Cigar Mile. So that begs the question, who is going to win divisional staples such as the Woodward, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Santa Anita Handicap, and the Donn? Well I've tried to figure it out and here's what I've come up with -

The Stretch out Milers
Those who are capable of competing at the Grade 1 level, but most are likely to find 10f a bit too far

Albertus Maximus
Gayego
Harlem Rocker
Monterrey Jazz
Tale of Ekati
Well Armed

The Synthetic Specialists
Might have Grade 1 talent on the fake stuff, but are untested or failed on the real stuff

Champs Elysees (GB)
Cowboy Cal
Dominican
Great Hunter
Mast Track
Slew's Tizzy

The Ones Not Quite Good Enough
Capable on the dirt and probably capable of handling 10f, but don't seem to have quite enough talent

Anak Nakal
A.P. Arrow
Atoned
Dry Martini
El Gato Malo
Frost Giant
Georgie Boy
Mambo in Seattle
Mostacolli Mort
Pyro
Smooth Air
Tin Cup Chalice
Wishful Tomcat
Zappa

The Ones Really Not Good Enough
Tried the level, failed the level, but might try again in '09

Alaazo
Ball Four
Cool Coal Man
Da' Tara
Golden Yank
Hey Byrn
Imawildandcrazyguy
Past the Point
Ravel
Sam P.
Stones River
Tres Borrachos
You and I Forever
Z Fortune
Z Humor

The Question Marks
Might have the talent to do big things, might not

Behindatthebar
Crown of Thorns
Denis of Cork
Informed
Monba

The "Chosen Few"
Those who are tried at the Grade 1 level, proven at the Grade 1 level, can probably (or have proven to be) effective at 10f, and will probably the the ones to beat in 2009

Arson Squad
Colonel John
Commentator
Delightful Kiss
Einstein (Brz)
Macho Again
Tiago

So if you're the connections of Zenyatta, do you step up and try to take on these horses?

Who do you think is going to be the big name in 2009? Who's going to step up from nowhere and make a name for himself (or herself)?

On second thought, maybe "handi-crap" fits great...