Dustin's Domain: October 2009

Fans are understandably somewhat frustrated at some of the field sizes that NYRA attracted for its "Super Saturday" card, but the blame settles far from the hard-working folks in New York. Can you begin to imagine that frustration that ensued when Andrew Rosen broke the news to them that Icon Project, quite possibly the best Distaffer in the East, was going to pass on the Beldame (Gr I) for the opportunity to particpate in the Spinster (Gr I) at Keeneland, instead? Entries for this race were taken on October 1, and until the day prior, Icon Project was considered to be a lock to run at Belmont. I can't blame other owners/trainers for not wanting to run their Distaff contenders against the powerful duo of Icon Project and Music Note, and once Icon Project opted out, it was really far too late to reroute horses to the Belmont.

I've heard some complaints about the field size as well, but again I sympathize with the folks at NYRA on that one. If I was forced to rank the Top 5 North American-based sprinters right now, I'd name for you Zensational, Fabulous Strike, Munnings, Fatal Bullet, and Kodiak Kowboy, in no particular order. So I guess I can just see that it's pretty tough to attract horses to run against 3 of the top 5.

But anyway, enough of that, let's move on to the handicapping -

Beldame

1. Captain's Lover (SaF) [2/1] - First half of the Team Valor entry is a Gr I winner in her native South Africa and was a Gr III winner in France before coming to the States. Primarily a turf specialist, her 1-for-1 record on the dirt comes with a bold asterisk - she won the 200k Matchmaker at Monmouth back on Haskell Day when that race came off-the-turf and she outclassed a field of fellow turf specialists. Beyer came back quite pedestrian, only a 76, and the final time was more than 4 seconds slower than it took Rachel Alexandra to take care of things in the Haskell. Retains the services of Velazquez, but she'd be a surprise.

1a. Unbridled Belle [2/1] - Six year old mare seems to move backward each time she sets foot on the track, and it's becoming almost difficult to watch. Beat Indian Vale and Ginger Punch in this race back in 2007, but we've slowly watched her form unravel since. Added a Gr III score to her credit back in June after she failed to get in foal to A.P. Indy, but was last seen bringing up the rear in the Personal Ensign (Gr I), beaten 42-lengths by Icon Project. I feel as if she's achieved that rare status where just about everyone not named Suroor and Mohammed would be thrilled to see her win (joining horses like Better Talk Now, Perfect Drift, and The Tin Man at that level), but it's just not going to happen.

2. Music Note [2/5] - Spent the last 10 minutes trying to build a case against her, and I just can't see it. 4-for-6 at Belmont, 2-for-3 at the distance, 2-for-3 over off going, and keep in mind that she fired off a 107 Beyer last out indicating that she's back. Problem for her foes here is that the 'B game' of this 4-time Grade I winner probably gets the job done by open lengths. Won the Gr I Gazelle last year at this distance over a wet track by 8 1/2-lengths. Be thankful if you can get 2/5, but she has 1/9 written all over her, and for good reason.

3. Copper State [8/1] - Sneaky Asmussen runner is twice Grade I placed and I'd have never guessed that before seeing her past performances. Granted those races came last summer, but the back class is certainly here. Fell out of form last fall and it's taken Asmussen a while to get her back to her peak level, but I think she's sitting on a strong effort. Took a deep strong in class last out to win the Central Iowa Stakes at Prairie Meadows, but was rewarded with a 92 Beyer and I like the confidence boost, being that was her first win since late 2007. Doesn't seem to be near the class of Music Note, but looks to be runner-up material.

4. With Flying Colors [20/1] - Last minute entrant from the Pletcher barn is really up against it in this spot. Daughter of A.P. Indy is just 2-for-10 lifetime and made her graded debut last time when 6th in the Personal Ensign (Gr I) at 19/1. Career high Beyer is only 80, and while she has won over an off-track at Belmont, I can't see her getting the pace to run at here.

***

1. Music Note
2. Copper State
3. Captain's Lover

***

Vosburgh

1. Go Go Shoot [6/1] - Bruce Levine-trained son of Songandaprayer has been a bit two-faced in 2009. Gives the impression that he's really ready to break out and make a name for himself in this division, but other times looks more suited for ungraded stakes at Delaware and Monmouth. Blazed to 109 BSF's at Saratoga and Delaware earlier this year when he ran 2nd to Fabulous Strike in the Vanderbilt (Gr II) and won the Longfellow Stakes by 9 1/2-length, but regressed off the latter effort to be all out to win the Mr Prospector at Monmouth by only 1/2-length. Has extremely quick gate speed, but it's tough to ask for him to run better than he did in the Vanderbilt when he still wasn't good enough to knock off Fabulous Strike.

2. Peace Chant [15/1] - Probably the odd-man out in this group, he lacks the credentials of his competitors and could do no better than 10th last out in the Forego (Gr I) at Saratoga.

3. Munnings [7/2] - Intriguing entrant from the Pletcher barn in that the you can make a case for quite a few of his races in 2009 to be toss-outs. Throwing out his Haskell due to the distance and probably drawing a line through his King's Bishop because I hate the trip he got. Not at all convinced this son of Speightstown likes a wet track, but I think he gets the perfect set-up in here if Go Go Shoot and Fabulous Strike decide to go at it early. He's been great at Belmont and some consider him a 7f race, but I don't think that's fair as he hasn't raced at 6f but once in his career, and it resulted in a maiden win. At this point I'm completely torn on him - on a fast track he'd be my pick, but not as certain if it comes up sloppy.

4. Kodiak Kowboy [3/1] - Returns to the care of Asmussen as Larry Jones slowly weans his stable, but doubt the trainer change has a huge effect on his form. While I really consider him to be more of a 7f/8f type, he's never missed the board going 6 furlongs (5 tries) and while he's the type of horse that is more consistent than flashy, he does show his share of large Beyer figures (108, 106 x3, 104, 102 x2). He closed well to finish 3rd in this race last year, beaten just 3/4-length by Black Seventeen and Fabulous Strike, and enters off a solid 2nd place finish to Pyro in the Forego (Gr I). Nearly certain he'll be coming from far back, but consider he's 0-for-4 on a wet track, however he's run a 106 Beyer on a wet track, so I wouldn't be too quick to say he hates it. Problem I see is that there are about 3 horses in this race capable of running a 110+ Beyer and he's stuck in the 104-106 range.

5. Fabulous Strike [Even] - One of the fastest horses of his generation, Fabulous Strike has won 14-of-23 races in his lifetime, including 11-or-16 at this distance and 4-of-6 at Belmont. Toss out his 5th place finish over the synthetic in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (Gr I) last year, and he's hit the exacta in 9 straight races. Race record is spattered with gaudy Beyer figures - 119, 118, 115, 114, 113, 112, and 111 - and even at 6, he's still showing capable of putting up a solid number. Earned a 112 last time when he won the Gr II Vanderbilt, and a 111 prior to that when he took the Gr II True North. Having a hard time finding a scenario that keeps him out of the exacta.

***

1. Kodiak Kowboy
2. Fabulous Strike
3. Munnings

***

Flower Bowl

1. Carribean Sunset (Ire) [5/2] - Entry comes in a bit lower on the morning-line that I'd have hoped, but me thinks you're getting a nice 1-2 punch with this duo. European Group III winner has yet to get things done at the graded level in the States, but she gives the impression that she'll get things done anytime now. Nearly knocked off defending champ Forever Together two back in the Diana (Gr I), and just missed by a length last out in the Palomar 'Cap (Gr II) at DelMar. Lone win Stateside came in a 200k ungraded stakes at Philly Park going 8.5f. Beyers aren't bad, but distance is an unknown, but it's tough to turn your back on Dominguez in here.

1a. Beauty O' Gwaun (Ire) [5/2] - 3yo daughter of Rainbow Quest looked to be on the fast track to something special earlier this year when she took the Group III Blue Wind Stakes in Ireland at second asking, but a 10th place finish in the Irish Oaks (Gr I) and a 3rd in the Give Thanks Stakes (Gr III) have curtailed her improvement. Clement does well with those he gets for the first time from Europe, and she adds blinkers and Lasix, but needed to show me something more before backing her in this spot. With Dominguez named on both, I'm thinking that Carribean Sunset might be their top pick to run, and Beauty O'Gwaun their backup if it comes up soft.

2. Leamington [10/1] - Probable frontrunner made her stakes debut a winning one last out when she took the restricted Voodoo Dancer at Saratoga by 1 1/4-lengths for Graham Motion. Earned a 96 Beyer for that effort, which was her second straight victory, and gives her connections the opportunity to try a race like this. Daughter of Pleasant Tap is out of a Storm Cat mare, so I like her to get the distance, but just not sure she wants the soft turf. Failed miserably on the turf over in Europe and was limited to running over the polytrack there, and has yet to meet a wet turf course here. If it comes up firm, she could be an outside consideration, but I toss her if it rains, as expected to.

3. Pure Clan [3/1] - Alright, not taking my chance with her this time. Thought she was bound for improvement as a 4yo, but hasn't really stepped up her game at all from her 3yo form. Boasts just a Gr III score this year, and finished 3rd last time as the 3/2 fave in the Beverly D (Gr I) at Arlington. Does her running from way back, and isn't a half bad running over this distance, but having difficulty backing a filly that's just 1 for her last 5. She'll get herself involved late - that's nearly certain - but just not sure she has it in her to get this thing done. Career high turf Beyer of 96 in 9 tries probably isn't good enough.

4. Dynaforce [7/2] - Most auspicious morning-line 3rd choice as she won this race last year by 4-lengths, won the Gr I Beverly D last out, and is 3-2-1-0 over wet turf courses in the United States. It was a long road back to top form for this 6yo daughter of Dynaformer - she lost two straight to start the year before her Bev D score, and still doesn't appear to be at the level she was last year. Expecting her to go off favored in this spot, but I'm hesitant to single her in any multi-race wager.

5. Criticism (GB) [8/1] - Speedy Darley-bred daughter of Machiavellian won 4-of-5 at one point in the States, but has lost two straight and quickly become forgotten in this division. Won two Gr II races and two Gr III's between the end of last year and the beginning of 2009 for Albertrani, but failed in her lone Gr I try, which came last out in the Diana at Saratoga. Doesn't seem to fancy a wet turf course, and thinking she's in over her head in this spot.

6. Queen of Hearts [15/1] - Longest shot on the board for a reason, her graded debut last out in the Glens Falls (Gr III) resulted in a 3rd place finish behind the lightly regarded Mushka, and while beaten just 1 1/4-lengths, there's not a ton to love. Daughter of Thunder Gulch didn't seem to fancy a soft track last year, but she's a different filly these days, even if just slightly. Add a low-percentage jockey in Jose Espinoza, and it's hard to make a case for her.

7. Moneycantbuymelove (Ire) [4/1] - 3yo daughter of Pivotal ships in from Great Britain after a strong performance in the Gr I Nassau at Goodwood, and that makes her my choice in here. A listed stakes winner at the distance, she came in 3rd behind potential Breeders' Cup runners Midday and Rainbow View in the Nassau, and earned a Racing Post speed rating of 115 for that effort. Regular rider Jamie Spencer makes the trip over to ride, and she adds Lasix for the first time in her career. Also have to give her credit for passing the vast majority of her 18 rivals two back in a stakes at Ascot as she rallied from far back to take that one by 2-lengths.

***

1. Moneycantbuymelove (Ire)
2. Pure Clan
3. Dynaforce

***

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational

1. Gio Ponti [6/5] - Son of Tale of the Cat has gone from a simple Gr II winner in 2008 to one of the world's top performers in 2009. A winner of four straight Grade I races, Gio Ponti is without question, the best turf horse in the United States. He handled the dominant mare Ventura in the Frank Kilroe (Gr I), he handled a 12 horse field in the Manhattan (Gr I), he dominated going 11f in the Man O War (Gr I), and he took on some solid Europeans when winning the Arlington Million (Gr I). 12 furlongs is an unknown, but this is a horse that earned a 105 Beyer going 11f and given his tactical speed and turn of foot, I don't see it being a problem. Arguably his top two performances of the year came over wet ground, and he's a most deserving favorite. Play against him at your own peril.

1a. Winchester [6/5] - A lot of work has gone into Winchester, and it's almost hard to believe this is the same horse that won the Secretariat Stakes (Gr I) last year for Dermot Weld, and earned a 106 Beyer for that race. He's lost 4 straight races, but finally showed a bit of interest last out when 2nd to Grand Couturier in the Bowling Green (Gr II). I still think he's got room for improvement, but not sure if it'll come in this race. He's only entered in the instance if the turf comes up too bad, and will likely scratch on behalf of his stablemate.

2. Interpatation [30/1] - Discussing the chances of this 7yo gelding is getting a bit monotonous, as he really has no chance. Picked up the pieces to nab 2nd in this race last year, but has missed the board in 6 tries since and although he adds Robby Albarado, he'd be nothing short of a shock.

3. Al Khali [12/1] - Wasn't shocked to see him get the job done last out against 3yos in the Gr III Saranac at Saratoga, and it's very obvious he's found a home on the turf under Bill Mott's care. Sputtered a bit trying to find his way with Pletcher, but now that Mott is pushing the buttons, he seems to be headed in the right direction. This is an extremely tough task for the 3yo son of Medaglia d'Oro, and expecting him to be better next year than he is now. Wouldn't mind getting a play on him for the 2010 future bet of this race, but not very enticing this year.

4. Telling [10/1] - Shocked the Saratoga faithful at 33/1 when he scored the upset over Better Talk Now and Brass Hat in the Gr I Sword Dancer on August 15, and trainer Steve Hobby is expecting more of the same from this son of A.P. Indy on Saturday. Knows this horse loves the 12f distance and has handled a wet turf going before. Can't fault the bettors for looking elsewhere, he's not exactly a household name, but at 10/1 he looks like a solid value play.

5. Musketier (Ger) [12/1] - Connections of this frontrunner will be begging Mother Nature to unleash her wrath in order to cause Presious Passion to scratch and give this one a pretty easy lead. This Roger Attfield trainee has turned into a different horse ever since they started putting him on the lead, and even scored a Gr III score at this distance three back at Woodbine in the Singspiel on June 21. Held off all but Gio Ponti two back in the Gr I Man O War, but failed miserably last out going this distance in the Gr I Sword Dancer. Having a tough time backing him off that effort.

6. Ready's Echo [12/1] - Placement in here indicates that Pletcher still isn't just quite sure what to do with this one. This son of More Than Ready is a bit of a jack-of-all-trades, having run 3rd in the 2008 Belmont Stakes (Gr I), 3rd in the 2009 Forego (Gr I), 3rd in the 2008 Jamaica 'Cap (Gr II) on the turf, and is a two-time winner on synthetic surfaces. This will be his first time trying 12f, which seems a bit further than he wants to go, and even with Velazquez up, he's way up against it in this spot.

7. Presious Passion [6/1] - Incredibly speedy son of Royal Anthem has won 3 graded stakes in 2009, including the United Nations (Gr I) two back at Monmouth. Famously known for his ability to open up on the field by open lengths early, but also has the fortitude to hold them off late. Forecast doesn't seem to agree with this one, however, and the trainer indicates that he'll scratch if the course comes up wet.

8. Grand Couturier (GB) [5/2] - Took trainer Rob Ribaudo a long time to get this one back into top form, in fact he ran 5th in 3 straight to start his 2009 campaign, but got the job done last out in the Gr II Bowling Green over this course on September 13. This is a horse that absolutely loves an off going, having won 3 of his last 4 over turf courses listed less than firm. Won this race last year by 10 1/4-lengths, earning a 112 Beyer figure, and has won 5-of-10 going the distance. Gio Ponti seems formidable, but the pieces may be in order for this one to run huge.

***

1. Gio Ponti
2. Telling
3. Grand Couturier (GB)

***

Jockey Club Gold Cup

1. Sette E Mezzo [12/1] - Son of Dynaformer has done well to carve a niche for himself on the turf, earning a Gr II placing last out, but wheels back onto the dirt for the first time since his debut at Gulfstream Park in March 2008 (he ran 3rd that day, beaten nearly 7 lengths). This one gets a big boost in picking up Ramon Dominguez, but having a tough time seeing him as anything but illogical in this spot. Has never broken the 100 Beyer plateau and will need to run the race of his life to even matter.

2. Macho Again [7/2] - The thinking of this handicapper is that if you can get this horse at this price, run to the windows. Once a perfect picture of inconsistency, Macho Again has put together three straight top performances at this level, and gives the indication that Dallas Stewart has worked him past his Jekyll and Hyde moments. Nearly ran down Rachel Alexandra in the Gr I Woodward last out, and prior to that just missed to Bullsbay in the Gr I Whitney. His 2009 resume includes scores in the Gr I Stephen Foster and the Gr II New Orleans 'Cap, and shows Beyers of 109, 105, and 100 in his last 3. Robby Albarado has built a strong rapport with this one, and Macho Again is 2-for-2 on wet tracks. Hasn't tried this distance since last year's Travers, but gives every indication that 10f is very doable. The pick.

3. Summer Bird [2/1] - Getting the feeling that he's becoming a bit overrated, and his 2/1 favoritism here seems to evidence that. Hard to deny his credentials, but still have some concerns with him. Has run 7 times since March 1 and the competition keeps getting tougher and tougher. Don't want to come off as too pessimistic, but have to wonder how much he's got left in the tank. If he doesn't falter here, he'll be quickly ascending to Curlin-level, which is probably tougher than it appears to do. Doesn't mind a sloppy track and retains Desormeaux, but trying older for the first time is no cakewalk. He'll be tested in this spot more than he's ever tested before, and I'm looking elsewhere for my top choice.

4. Tizway [15/1] - H. James Bond trained son of Tiznow could find himself alone on a pretty easy lead, but either way, he'll have some very talented horses breathing down his neck. Has never gone this far, and ran 4th in the Whitney (Gr I) in his lone graded try. Has been regularly drilling 6f over the Saratoga training track, and his performance will depend on how much Maragh can slow things down early. Tough to be overly optimistic, but the barn is pretty hot and the trainer/jockey combo fire at a huge clip. Wouldn't hurt to have him in your exotics.

5. Asiatic Boy (Arg) [8/1] - Solid son of Argentinian sire Not for Sale adds blinkers after a tough 4th place finish to Rachel Alexandra in the Gr I Woodward at Saratoga. Didn't exactly have the easiest trip that day, and his back class shows a pair of runner-up performances in graded stakes in this country - the Gr I Stephen Foster and the Gr II Suburban. Also won the Gr II Maktoum Challenge Round III earlier this year. Has hit the exacta in 3-of-4 tries going this distance, but I'm having a hard time loving this one in this spot.

6. Dry Martini [8/1] - Connections are incredibly high on this son of Slew Gin Fizz, even with his 5th place finish in the Gr I Whitney last out in mind. Retains the services of Prado, but not sure that's a great thing at the moment - Edgar is just 2-for-51 (4%) at the current Belmont meet, and is winning with just 12% on the year. This one won the Suburban (Gr II) two back, but I guess I'm missing the smoking gun that the connections are leaning on.

7. Quality Road [5/2] - Speedy son of Elusive Quality ran an absolute clunker last out in the Travers (Gr I) yet still managed 3rd in a race that was probably way too much, way too soon for him. Even tough sons of Elusive Quality have scored going 10f, I still don't think it's false to say that might not be their ideal distance. It's actually quite farfetched to say that since Smarty Jones and Raven's Pass were able to run a distance, that any other son of Elusive Quality should be able to do the same. Tough to deny his raw speed, but leaning toward 10f being a bit much for him. Either way, he should get a better trip in here than he did in the Travers and is still extremely dangerous.

***

1. Macho Again
2. Asiatic Boy
3. Summer Bird

Monday, October 19, 2009

Breeders' Cup Contenders (10/19/09)

Friday, October 2, 2009

NYRA's Super Saturday

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