The Big Cap!

As a race whose storied past includes victories by racing legends including Affirmed, Seabiscuit, Spectacular Bid, Round Table, Ack Ack, Lava Man, Tiznow, John Henry, and Alysheba, the 'Big Cap seems to be one racing spectacle that refuses to lose its spectacle as a true gem in the racing atmosphere. While the caliber of handicap fields across the country have ebbed and flowed due to the early retirements and untimely injuries of top horses, the Santa Anita Handicap seems to be one of the few races that annually draws large, talented, and competitive fields. The 2009 rendition of this race is no exception.

Seven Grade/Group 1 winners will be complemented by a pair of Grade 2 victors and another Grade 3 winner among the races 14 entrants. With a fair number of speed horses, stalkers, mid-pack runners, and closers, the winner of this race is liable to come from anywhere in the pack. 10 of these entrants have experience going the distance (or further), and all of these but three have crossed the line first in a race on a synthetic surface. All of that should make for an excellent race, from both wagering and enjoyment perspectives.

1. Matto Mondo (Chi) (Mandella/Bejarano) - 6/1

Rapidly developing Richard Mandella-trainee launched his career in his native Chile and was a 16-length Group I winner by his fourth career start. He racked up another Group I win prior to shipping to the United States, and the son of Sir Cat has won two in a row after getting off to a rocky start here. After beginning his career in 10 straight turf races, Matto Mondo excelled in the Grade III Thunder Road Handicap when it came off-the-turf, and that race opened up the 5-year-old horse to a myriad of opportunities. Mandella picked what is likely the most difficult. Matto Mondo has covered the 10f distance just once in his career, and that was when he ran 7th in a Group I turf race in Chile. His longest victory is just 8.5f, and I'm not sure I can see a son of Sir Cat excelling at a mile and a quarter. Drawing the rail will likely force Bejarano to push his hand a bit early, and I expect him to be right up on the pace. That looks to be his ultimate undoing.

2. Cowboy Cal (Pletcher/Velazquez) - 5/1

One of my favorite horses in training, there is absolutely no doubting the fact that Cowboy Cal has guts and is willing to fight for a victory. The son of Giant's Causeway has run in the exacta in 9 of his past 10 races, with the lone off-the-board performance coming when he ran 9th of 20 in last spring's Kentucky Derby. After receiving an extended break after the race, Cowboy Cal returned to the races with a vengeance, earning a victory (via disqualification) in the ungraded Bryan Station Stakes. He followed that up with a narrow loss to Court Vision in the Grade I Hollywood Derby on the turf, but he's reeled off two straight Grade II victories on the synthetic main track at Santa Anita in the San Pasqual Handicap and the Strub Stakes. While his pedigree indicates that 10f should not be a problem, I'm a bit wary of him going 10f. I think his grit and determination make him a serious contender, but I think he may have a bit too much trouble hanging on in the final eighth. He's a must have on all exotic tickets.

3. Heroi Do Bafra (Brz) (Miller/M. Baze) - 30/1

At the end of 2008, anybody could have claimed this 7-year-old son of Royal Academy for $40,000. Peter Miller claimed Heroi Do Bafra on behalf of his clients Barber & Barber, and in his first start for his new connections the horse rewarded his them with a 3/4-length victory in a $50,000 claiming race at Santa Anita. Those credentials would make him a logical choice in an allowance race, but likely not a $1,000,000 Grade I. He'll need to run the race of his life to even crack the top five, and I find that highly unlikely.

4. Monba (Pletcher/Prado) - 15/1

Last year's Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. I) champion (over stablemate Cowboy Cal), Monba has only been seen twice on the track since that race. He ran 20th in the Kentucky Derby, but missed more than 9 months after that race due to injury. He returned last month at Santa Anita in the Grade III Thunder Road Handicap, and closed aggressively from 6th at the top of the lane to finish 3rd. The son of Maria's Mon owns a victory at 9f, and his pedigree indicates that he should revel the extra distance. Monba has had excuses for the majority of his losses - injuries hampered him in both the Derby and Fountain of Youth Stakes last year, and he wasn't likely near fully cranked last out in the Thunder Road. At 15/1 he looks to be worth a chance, and the fact that Edgar Prado gives up a mount on Imperial Council in the Gotham Stakes to ride here should instill some confidence.

5. Colonel John (Harty/Gomez) - 9/2

If Colonel John is victorious in this race, he'll be doing it at my expense. I feel that this son of Tiznow has a ton of talent, but I'm not sure he's been campaigned to really exploit that talent. It's my personal belief that Colonel John is the type of horse who perfroms better the more races that he's run consecutively. Eoin Harty seems to believe that he's the type of horse who does his best running off extended layoffs and when fresh. Three times in his career, Colonel John has had the opportunity to make his second start after a layoff line in his past performances. He's 3 for 3 in those races, and those victories include the Travers Stakes (Gr. I), the Santa Anita Derby (Gr. I), and the Real Quiet Stakes. In races directly after the layoff, Colonel John is only 2 for 5. He hasn't started since the Malibu Stakes (Gr. I) on December 26, so that means another layoff line in his past performances. I'm taking a stand against him here, especially as the morning line favorite, but keep an eye on him next out...unless that start is 3 months away. I also feel his Travers victory is quite overrated, as Mambo in Seattle, Pyro, and Macho Again, among others, have done little to flatter the Colonel's victory.

6. Magnum (Arg) (Vienna/Rosario) - 12/1

While looking at the past performances of this entrant, I have to first tip my cap to trainer Darrell Vienna. Magnum, if you remember, ran in this race three years ago - and he nearly upset Lava Man as a 17/1 longshot in the race. You wont find many currently in training who squared off against the likes of High Limit, Wilko, or Giacomo, and it's nearly unheard of for that horse to be running at the same level that he was three years earlier. But Magnum is. Last out, Magnum broke a 8 race losing streak, and that streak included 7 races where he ran off the board. But his last two races have been extremely promising - he ran 3rd, beaten only 1 3/4-lengths in the San Pasqual Handicap, and defeated Well Armed and Tiago last out in the Grade II San Antonio Handicap. He's in peak form and while it seems unlikely that the 8-year-old gelding could get his picture taken, stranger things have happened in racing. No Lava Man this time around.

7. Blue Exit (Hollendorfer/Albarado) - 12/1

A horse who may just be a steal at his morning-line price. Blue Exit, a son of Pulpit who began his career in France, has taken his time to come around stateside for Jerry Hollendorfer, but couldn't be in better form right now. The bay colt came flying at the end of the Strub Stakes (Gr. II) to just miss Cowboy Cal, but he passed 7 rivals down the lane and made up a half-dozen lengths on Cowboy Cal. I look for a similar, if not faster, pace in the Strub and if Robby Albarado can maneuver a clean trip for Blue Exit here, he's my pick to stand in the winner's circle after the race.

8. Einstein (Brz) (Pitts/Leparoux) - 6/1

One of the most accomplished horses in training in the United States, the Brazilian-bred Einstein has won a trio of Grade I races in his career, all on the turf, and he's also placed in four more Grade I events. He's also a Grade II winner on the dirt, and the son of Spend a Buck has earned nearly $1.7 million in his 23 race career. He never really fails to show up, and has performed well all over the East Coast and the Midwest. Distance should be a non-factor as he won the 11f Gulfstream Park Turf Stakes last February, and also won the same race in 2006. This will mark his first start over a synthetic surface, but trainer Pitts is confident he can handle them, and for good reason given his versatility on the turf and dirt. I'm not really sure what to make of him as an entrant, but my gut tells me tossing him would be a mistake. He's a definite contender.

9. Dansant (GB) (Butler/T. Baze) - 20/1

The European shipper amongst this cast of 14, Dansant isn't necessarily your typical European shipper for a main-track race. Dansant has become one of the premier synthetic track horses in Europe for trainer Gerard Butler, having won 5 of 8 races on the all-weather surfaces at Lingfield and Kempton Park in Great Britain. Furthermore, 2 of those 3 victories came at the 10f distance, and his lone 10f loss came last out by 1/2-length when he fell just short of running down a loose-on-the-lead frontrunner in a 3 horse field. Generally Europeans are incapable of running a winning race in a race like this so early in the season, however Dansant's synthetic track prowess opens up opportunities for him in Europe throughout the winter. I don't view him as a huge threat to the premier Americans, but he's definitely worth a second or a third look, especially near 20/1 on the tote. Breeders' Cup Marathon winner Muhannak came out of similar all-weather races in Europe, so a translation of form is not unheard of.

10. Cause (Cho/Court) - 30/1

Another longshot on the board, and deservedly so. The son of Giant's Causeway, a $120,000 yearling purchase at Keeneland in September 2006, Cause was claimed by Myung Kwon Cho last November for $25,000 at Hollywood Park. His form has improved significantly under the watchful eye of Cho, but he's still far off from being competitive in a race like this. He rallied belatedly to grab a close-up 6th in the Strub Stakes (Gr. II) last out at 120/1, and it'd take odds like that again to make me even consider a second look at him in here...and that would just be for a $2 pity wager.

11. Court Vision (Mott/Dominguez) - 6/1

Another one of last year's three-year-old divisional standouts looking to make a name for himself in 2009. Court Vision won the Grade II Remsen Stakes as a juvenile in 2007, but endured a 6 race losing streak following that score that put him on the cusp falling into oblivion. Trainer Bill Mott gave the colt a 180, though, and repositioned Court Vision for a turf campaign, and the son of Gulch responded very well to the change of surface. He was victorious in back-to-back starts in the Grade II Jamaica Handicap and the Grade I Hollywood Derby, and just missed last out to Kip Deville in the Grade I Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. The victor drilled 9f in 1:45 3/5 that day, and Court Vision was just 3/4 of a length in tow. Ramon Dominguez has been aboard for his past three starts, and passes up a ride aboard Haynesfield in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct to ride here. He'll be coming from well off the pace, and he'll need a bit of racing luck to carve a winning trip for himself. Court Vision broke his maiden at Keeneland, so the synthetic tracks should be within his reach.

12. Zambezi Sun (GB) (Frankel/Espinoza) - 12/1

The first of the Frankel-trained duo, Zambezi Sun is a Juddmonte homebred and a European Group I winner. After battling the likes of Dylan Thomas, Soldier of Fortune, Youmzain, Doctor Dino, and Sagara over the past few summers in Europe, Zambezi Sun may actually find fields like this to be a drop in class. Frankel started him in the Grade II San Luis Obispo Handicap over the Santa Anita turf course on February 22, and he believes that effort may have done the trick in giving his entrant the edge that he needs to be competitive in here. Zambezi Sun pulled jockey Garrett Gomez throughout the Obispo, and came up empty when the real running started en route to a 6th place finish. Can he turn his luck around here? It looks to be a possibility, but I'm not banking on it.

13. Champs Elysees (GB) (Frankel/Valdivia) - 12/1

A two-time Grade I winner in North America, the British-bred Champs Elysees offers his backers quite a few advantages as this race will unfold. Another Juddmonte homebred, Champs Elysees ran third in this race last year, beaten only 3 1/2-lengths by victor Heatseeker. He's also unleashed a few stretch rallies in races completely lacking in place to take the Grade I Hollywood Turf Cup last November, as well as last September's Northern Dancer Stakes (Can-Gr. I) at Woodbine. He'll go off as a longshot in this field, and I expect him to slide up from his 12/1 morning line odds. He's got his share of negatives, though, as well. He's never won on a synthetic surface, and besides his 3rd in last year's 'Big Cap, his synthetic performances include an 8th in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic (Gr. I) and a 7th last out in the San Antonio Handicap (Gr. II). His form is difficult to gauge as he regularly follows uncharacteristically poor efforts with strong ones, and vice versa. Valdivia guided him to the victory two back at Hollywood, but I'm siding with others here.

14. Stream Cat (Biancone/Solis) - 20/1

Biancone wheels back with another, and made a last minute decision to replace Nownownow with Stream Cat in this field. Stream Cat, a gelding trained by Biancone prior to his year-long suspension, is a winner of 6 of 20 lifetime, including a trio of Grade III races throughout his career. He will have no issues navigating the distance effectively, and he's hit the board in 5 of 7 tries on all-weather surfaces. Last out, in his first start back with Biancone, he ran 6th in the San Marcos Stakes (Gr. II) over the Santa Anita turf course, but he was beaten only 2 1/2-lengths that day. The 6-year-old son of Black Minnaloushe has never been the type, however, who's shown the talent to win a race like this, and he's consistently failed at the Grade I and Grade II levels. Biancone is off to a very slow start at the meet, 1 for 39 and counting, and I expect that to continue in this race.

With such an evenly matched field, I'm looking forward to a very close finish. I think Cowboy Cal is the most likely speed horse to hang around, and while the fractions will be fast, they will be bearable and not a huge deterrent to any particular running style. I look forward to a big rallies from Court Vision, Blue Exit, and Monba, and trip is going to play a huge role in how that plays out, especially with a full field of 14 entered. One mistake could cost a horse several lengths, as could being forced too wide, or lacking running room. Magnum and Einstein will have first run at the pacesetters, and either of them is capable of grabbing the lead and going on with it. And even look out for European shipper Dansant, who's conditioner has been very confident about his chances all week. Frankel has been high on Zambezi Sun since he arrived in his stable, and that's worth noting again. Oh, and I haven't even mentioned the favorite Colonel John, yet...

14 entrants, and I feel I can make a very logical and legitimate case for 9 of them - should be one heck of a race!

1. Blue Exit
2.Court Vision
3. Cowboy Cal
4. Einstein (Brz)