On Tap - April 4, 2009

More stakes races than anybody has time to really look at, so no time for small talk and lets get to 'cappin!

Aqueduct (7th) Bay Shore Stakes (Gr. III) $200,000

All things considered, I'm pretty impressed with the field assembled here. #4 Capt. Candyman Can (5/2) was one of the most highly regarded sophomores over the winter, but the Ian Wilkes-charge ultimately found races beyond a mile to be beyond his scope. The same goes for #10 Taqarub (4/1). The Kiaran McLaughlin trained son of Aldebaran briefly appeared on the Derby Trail last out in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes, but was unable to replicate his earlier victories, including the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes, and could do no better than 9th that day. Santa Anita shipper, #8 Gato Go Win (5/1), will make his first start off the synthetics here, and seems like a logical play against. His only previous stakes competition came when third to filly Evita Argentina in the Grade II San Vicente Stakes. There's plenty of speed in this 7 furlong dash, and I don't expect the victor to be on or right off the lead. I think Taqarub became overrated due to his races over the Aqueduct inner-track, and I think the outside post plays against his running style. He also loses regular rider Alan Garcia and McLaughlin replaces him with Richard Migliore. The presence of Taqarub in this field will ensure that my pick, Capt. Candyman Can, bettable. Regular rider Julien Leparoux opts to ride at Oaklawn, but Wilkes secured Javy Castellano to ride, and he's more than capable. Capt. Candyman Can is comfortable rating off the pace, and seems to excel going 7f-8f. #3 Lyin' Heart (10/1) may be one to watch. The Asmussen-trained son of Lion Heart ran 2nd in the Bashford Manor Stakes (Gr. III) last summer and returned from a long layoff to nab third in the Mountain Valley Stakes last out. I'm also looking for a nice run out of #6 Not For Silver (5/1). The Laurel based runner shipped to Aqueduct and won the Capossela Stakes here over the winter and is reunited with Ramon Dominguez. He shortens back to a sprint distance for this event.

1. Capt. Candyman Can
2. Not For Silver
3. Lyin' Heart

Aqueduct (8th) Excelsior Handicap (Gr. III) $200,000

A pretty lackluster rendition of this Gr. III event for older horses. The majority of the runners wintered at Aqueduct and are familiar faces amongst the regular track visitors. #1 Barrier Reef (5/2) is the slight morning-line favorite, but he's as shaky a favorite as you'll find. The Darley charge has won three straight over the inner-track at Aqueduct for Tom Albertrani, and 5 of his last 6 over the inner, but is 6-0-0-2 on other surfaces. I'll take a stand against him here, but will use underneath. Bettors will have tough decisions to make in regard to both #6 Cool Coal Man (7/2) and #7 Atoned (6/1). Cool Coal Man, a 4-year-old son of Mineshaft, is a multiple stakes winner whose resume includes a victory in the 9f Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gr. II) last winter, and earned a 106 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) in a 6.5f allowance over that course this past January. The problem for bettors is that his record at Gulfstream is a respectable 4-3-0-0, but everywhere else he is only 11-3-1-1. Last out he failed as the slight favorite in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (Gr. II) and while he's performed admirably at this distance, I don't think 9f is his ideal going. Atoned offers similar issues. The Pletcher-trainee is just 1 for 6 at the distance, but his resume includes a victory in the Pegasus Stakes (Gr. III) and runner-up performances in the Tampa Bay Derby (Gr. III), Long Branch Stakes, and the Spend a Buck Stakes. He picks up Velazquez after being ridden previously by Pletcher's backup rider Chris DeCarlo. I'll take a flier and hope he's up for this race, and if nothing else I expect him to make things interesting.

1. Atoned
2. Barrier Reef
3. Cool Coal Man

Aqueduct (9th) Wood Memorial (Gr. I) $750,000

Essentially we've got a rematch of the Grade III Gotham Stakes. #2 I Want Revenge (4/5) was the runaway 8 1/2-length winner that day, and in just 1:42 3/5 the Jeff Mullins trained son of Stephen Got Even catapulted himself from being a fringe Derby contender to a lead contender for the race. Andy Beyer hooked him up with a flashy 113 speed figure, and last year's Derby winning owner IEAH Stables moved in and purchased a 50% share of the colt. The runner-up that day was #5 Imperial Council (2/1), and while he was beaten by a huge margin, he's my play here. Rajiv Maragh gave Imperial Council a horrendous ride that day, allowing the son of Empire Maker to drop near the rear of the field, 8 to 9 lengths behind the pacesetter. He was able to clear the rest of the field that day, but was never a threat to the winner. Regular rider Edgar Prado gets back on, and I expect him to be much closer to the early fractions, and while I expect I Want Revenge to regress off his huge effort last time, I look for Imperial Council to improve and get the job done. The coupled Kelly Breen entry (6/1) of #1 Atomic Rain and #1a West Side Bernie each have stakes experience, the former being Gr. II placed and the latter being a Gr. III winner. West Side Bernie failed last out as the 2/1 favorite in the Lane's End Stakes (Gr. II) and is winless since September. He's the more attractive member of the entry. One longshot I'm keeping my eye on is Frank Alexander's Lime Rickey (20/1). The Dogwood-owned colt has made each of his 9 prior starts on the turf, but is bred to be competitive on the dirt as well. He just missed as the favorite last out in the Palm Beach Stakes (Gr. III).

1. Imperial Council
2. I Want Revenge
3. West Side Bernie

Aqueduct (10th) Carter Handicap (Gr. I) $300,000

What a deep and competitive race. Of the 8 entrants, I think a logical case can be made for 5 of these, but I'm going to go with the Larry Jones coupled entry of #1 Biker Boy and #1a Kodiak Kowboy (5/1). I prefer Kodiak Kowboy, a Grade II winner last summer who also placed in the Grade I Vosburgh. He got a prep for this in the Duncan Kenner Stakes at the Fair Grounds, and is ready to roll here! Speed comes from all angles in #3 True Quality (7/2), #4 Fabulous Strike (2/1), #5 Driven To Success (10/1), and perhaps #6 Understatement (15/1). Fabulous Strike can be one of the premier sprinters in the nation, but I think the 7f distance plays against him here. #7 Tale of Ekati (3/1) is a dual Grade I winner that I just don't think highly of at all. He ran a dull 4th last out in the Richter Scale Stakes (Gr. II) at Gulfstream.

1. Kodiak Kowboy
2. True Quality
3. Fabulous Strike

Hawthorne (7th) Illinois Derby (Gr. II) $500,000

Another final stepping-stone to the Kentucky Derby, the Illinois Derby has brought together a cast of misfits and also-rans who really don't have much reason to be in the gate at Churchill come May 2nd. The favorites are #8 Musket Man (7/2) and #2 Giant Oak (9/2). I really don't like either. I think Giant Oak has all the makings of a Blackberry Road who does nothing more than pick up the pieces, and I think Musket Man is bred to sprint. #1 Nowhere to Hide (5/1) isn't that good either. #6 Perfect Song (6/1) who's receiving a ton of support among fans, and he's my pick as well. I think he's the most likely to improve. #9 Al Khali, a Pletcher trained son of Medaglia d'Oro might have a shot for minor pieces.

1. Perfect Song
2. Giant Oak
3. Al Khali

Santa Anita Park (6th) Santa Anita Derby (Gr. I) $750,000

Pamplemousse! Yay Pamplemousse! #10 The Pamplemousse (2/1) is my pick. I don't see the post as a deterrent, and I love his raw speed and talent. I think he's the best horse on the West Coast, adn the premier talent. Pioneerof the Nile, I think, is a horse who's benefitted from weak fields in his most recent starts, and I think that Chocolate Candy is just completely overrated.

1. The Pamplemousse
2. Pioneerof the Nile
3. Mr. Hot Stuff