Well, I would like to personally take this time to congratulate myself for absolutely getting killed at the windows. The only bet I cashed on all day was a $10 win play on a 2/1 shot in the 9th at Calder. So, I would like to give a shout-out to Hopeful Image (trainer Gerald Procino; jockey Herb McCauley) for getting up late to win that thrilling allowance. However, the rest of the day - nothin' doin for me. I was close on a few tris, but just couldn't get the job done. I'll do the trendy thing and blame the track - damn synthetics.
Marathon
I did comment that Mike Mitchell is uber dangerous off the layoff, right? Both Church Service AND Big Booster hit the board, at odds of 10/1 each. The problem? I talked myself out of Church Service completely, thinking that Big Booster was the superior of the two. The bigger problem? I gave European allowance/handicap winner Muhannak absolutely no chance. I should have considered him, given the fact that he'd won on synthetics in Europe, but hindsight is always 20/20. Sixties Icon failed to run a step, and so did Delightful Kiss. Their inability to fire led to my ability to throw a bunch of tickets in the air. The tri in this one payed $987.10 for $1. Kudos to anyone that had it (bonus points if you admit to taking my advice on the Mitchell horses).
Turf Sprint
Did Jamie Theriot and Joe Talamo really cover that first quarter in 20.73? Did they really cover the second quarter in 21.08? I mean, I understand that Mr. Nightlinger and California Flag are amazingly fast, but that's ridiculous. Need less to say, they dropped like anchors when the field came running and finished 11th and 10th, respectively. I was so far off in this race, it's not even funny. My top 3 were Rouse the Cat, True to Tradition, and Salute the Count. They ran 12th, 7th, and 6th. I do have to give a ton of credit to Dave Hofmans and Richard Migliore for their efforts with the longshot winner Desert Code, who paid $75.00 to win. I gave him absolutely no shot, and if I had to handicap the race again, I'd still give him no shot. Kudos to two horses I've followed for some time, Diaboical and Storm Treasure for getting 2nd and 3rd, and filling out a $6,184 trifecta.
Dirt Mile
20 seconds into the race, I knew I was cooked. First of all, why was Eibar Coa on Lewis Michael instead of Rene Douglas? I need an answer to that. I feel like this is one of the races that I had absolutely nailed, but I still couldn't get the job done. I had a feeling Well Armed was sitting on a bad one, and I had taken a stand against Surf Cat as well. I boxed Lewis Michael, Albertus Maximus, and Rebellion in a $1 tri. First of all, what was Lewis Michael doing that close to the pace? Did Coa even see his Pat O'Brien? Did Coa understand that the track was most likely favoring closers? Why was he pressing the pace with Lewis Michael? They covered 6f in 1:08 3/5! If he gets the same trip that he did in the O'Brien, he hits the exacta easily. Rebellion really spiced up the tri at 18/1, and this would have been a nice one to have. I'll forever be bitter at Eibar Coa - mark my words.
Mile
All I can really say is wow. Goldikova is an absolute monster. For her to wait, slide through a tiny hole, and accelerate like she did...she's becoming something special. And let's consider that Zarkava beat her this year...twice. Don't think Zarkava was one of the best we've seen for a long time? Think again. Gotta give credit to Kip, and wasn't surprised to see Whatsthescript and US Ranger closing well. I made some cardinal mistakes when handicapping this one. Number one was that I gave Bold Chieftain a shot. I hate on Russell Baze 365 days a year, and yet this is the second time I've given him a shot on a big racing day (the other being either this year or last in the SA Derby) - he's screwed me both times. The only other mistake I made - I didn't key Kip and Goldikova up top over Whatsthescript in 3rd. I played it straight: Kip - Goldikova - Whatsthescript. Moving on...
Juvenile
Class held and speed held for once. This was the only race of the two days on the main track won by ANY horse who led or stalked the early pace. So if Midshipman stays in America, he just might turn into something pretty damn good. I wont go and jinx him by saying the words Triple Crown, thou...wait, I just did. Sorry Baffy! Terrain put in a good run too in getting 4th. I had keyed Street Hery & Midshipman over him in the tri, assuming Square Eddie would bounce like none other. This is about the time I should have realized it just wasn't my day.
Juvenile Turf
Also know as the dartboard race. Isn't it always a kick in the pants to have picked out a few nice midpack horses/closers, only to see 2nd, 3rd, and 5th early? Europe ran 1-2 in this one, and Coronet of a Baron got 3rd. The only enjoyment that I got from the race was seeing my mother's face light up for about .04 seconds when the longshot I gave her, City Style (29/1), came flying into the screen toward the end of the race. He got 4th.
Sprint
Midnight Lute should be revered as a legend. So should Bob Baffert. Horses aren't made to do what that duo did on Saturday. That horse was essentially unraced since last November. His start in the O'Brien was an absolute debacle, and the horse failed to run at all. I've been confident in my pal Fatal Bullet for weeks, and I'm proud as hell with how he ran. The public latched on, making him 5/1, but that horse ran lights out. I played a $2 straight tri in this one - Fatal Bullet - Midnight Lute - Street Boss. That didn't go over well.
Turf
Will be one of those races that I never forget. Coolmore enters rabbit to ensure honest pace. Rabbit takes off like his tail is on fire (fractions of 24.28, 47.06, 1:10.20). So, in theory, the horse he's trying to set things up for would be well behind him, waiting for the speed horse(s) and stalkers to wilt. But no, Soldier of Fortune is sitting right there, in 3rd, right off his rabbit. He ended up finishing 4th, and in some ways I'd consdier that to be a hell of a run. The winner, Conduit, is one of those horses that my gut kept telling me to bet, but I ignored it. Eagle Mountain, who ran 2nd, is the exact same situation. I'll give myself a light pat on the back because I nailed Dancing Forever for 3rd at 26/1. It sucked to see Better Talk Now (8th), Red Rocks (10th), and Grand Couturier (11th).
Classic
Sooooo....how about that Curlin! I'll be the first to admit I was pleased seeing him go down. Screw that, I was ecstatic! I actually thought for sure he was making a winning move around the turn, too. But my hat's off to Raven's Pass, Henrythenavigator, AND Tiago for running by him. Oh, and for what it's worth, I didn't have any of those 3 in any tri that I played. I dabbled in the Duke, Champs Elysees, Curlin, Colonel John, and Go Between, but I didn't tread on anything too heavily. The tri payed $2,395 for a buck...just wish I'd have used the Euros a lot heavier! Who'd have thought a pair of turf milers would end up running 1-2 in America's biggest main track handicap race?
Monday, October 27, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
Breeders' Cup Saturday Analysis P2
Breeders' Cup Mile
This one looks to be a top class field. Even though Friday was dubbed 'Ladies Day,' at least two fell through the cracks, those being Fred Head's Irish-bred Goldikova and Bobby Frankel's Precious Kitten.
The pace in here looks to be pretty swift - Daytona (6/1) will be up there, as will Thorn Song (12/1) and probably Precious Kitten (8/1). Expect defending champion Kip Deville (5/1) to sit just in behind them, as well as Bold Chieftain (15/1), and perhaps even Goldikova (3/1). I'd look to the closers, but I'm not too high on any of them. Shakis (10/1) is past his prime and needs a longer distance. War Monger (12/1) has disappointed all season, and Whatsthescript (4/1) faces a huge class test here. Coolmore's hope, U S Ranger (15/1) should not be dismissed at those odds. The two turn mile will be right up his alley, and he should appreciate the added distance.
At this point, I'm just wishing Kip Deville would have shown something in his last. The race sets up beautifully for him, and he loves Santa Anita and the distance. His best is probably better than anyone else's.
My first inclination is to go with Goldikova, but I'm always leary of Europeans at short prices in these things. But she's won 3 straight and ran a lot of good races to Zarkava in the spring.
The Play: I think the top three in here are Goldikova, Whatsthescript, and Kip Deville. Box those three in the exacta, and then play them over 'all' in the trifecta, if you have the guts!
1. Goldikova
2. Whatsthescript
3. U S Ranger
Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Finally a race that I have an opinion on. With the top East Coast juvenile, Vineyard Haven, staying home, I think this race comes down to two entrants - Midshipman (5/1) from Bob Baffert's barn, and Street Hero (6/1) from the barn of Myung Kwon Cho. They ran 1-2 in the local prep for this, the Grade 1 Norfolk Stakes, with Street Hero getting the nod that day. The morning lines on each of those are very generous.
Worst Bet : I hate Munnings (7/2) in here, and I cringe at the fact that he's the ML favorite. By Speightstown, he's tough to love around two turns, even though Holy Bull is his damsire. He's been soundly defeated twice in the Hopeful and Champagne in New York, and faces the possibility of being boxed in on the rail or being forced to go too soon. I think he may be the most vulnerable favorite of the entire group.
Sleeper : Terrain (20/1) is quickly becoming the type of horse that I love to follow. He's not fast, nor is he flashy, but he always seems to put in an honest effort. He ran 2nd in the wake of Square Eddie in the Breeders' Futurity (Gr. I) at Keeneland, and likes the synthetics. The stewards handed him a victory in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (Gr. III), and Theriot is a good rider who will sneak him up get a piece.
1. Street Hero
2. Midshipman
3. Terrain
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
Roll of the dice - going with the best American closers and the top Euro....
1. Westphalia
2. Grand Adventure
3. Skipadate
Breeders' Cup Sprint
One of those races where I think the speed bias will come into effect. First Defence (12/1) is the epitome of cheap speed in here, Fabulous Strike (4/1) is fast and consistent, Black Seventeen (15/1) will be involved, and look for Fatal Bullet (6/1) to be around. I look for Fabulous Strike to drop out of it at the top of the lane, and open things up for the closers.
Street Boss (3/1) has been a force in California all year, but he might come from too far back. I just don't trust him fully. Nor do I really trust Cost of Freedom (4/1). Midnight Lute (7/2) is hard to love off the layoff. I'm going with a lesser known horse here -
1. Fatal Bullet
2. Cost of Freedom
3. Street Boss
Breeders' Cup Turf
In what always figures to a spirited race, a solid cast of 11 line up for this 12f event. Coolmore's Soldier of Fortune (7/2) has been named the ML favorite, and for good reason. He won the Group 1 Coronation Cup over Youmzain in June, but more importantly comes into this race fresh. He's only started 3 times in 2008, and ran 3rd in the Arc last out. Look for a big rally from him.
1. Soldier of Fortune
2. Eagle Mountain
3. Dancing Forever
Breeders' Cup Classic
As you all will shortly learn, I really can't stand Curlin. He bugs me. But he should win this race pretty easily. The speed won't hold, so Fairbanks and Smooth Air are out. Champs Elysees is sitting on a big one I think. Same with Go Between.
Curlin is in a class of his own, and I can't try to beat him. Simple as that. Put as much as you can on him!
1. Curlin
2. Go Between
3. Champs Elysees
Breeders' Cup - Friday roundup and Saturday Analysis P1
Wow, what can one say after Friday's races? All things considered, the results were very, very chalky. 4 of the 5 winners were under 5/1, but I still was able to turn a bit of a profit at the windows. I ended up wagering $112, and I returned $175.70. The trifecta in the F&M Sprint helped a lot, although I was disappointed that Miraculous Miss was unable to get up for 3rd at 38/1. I didn't do anything in the F&M Turf, but I didn't expect to. I was very disappointed to see Consequence slide to 7/2, as I bet her well before the races even began. Stardom Bound did very well for me, however I missed the tri in there as well when Dream Express got 2nd over Sky Diva. Sealy Hill ruined most of what I had going in the F&M Turf (although I'm pleased to see her finally run well), but I did make a little with a saver win bet on Forever Together. Can't believe they let her go off at 5/1! The Zenyatta/Cocoa Beach exacta only paid $6.70 for $1, but I expected it to be that low. I had boxed them with the hope that Cocoa Beach might knock off the champ, but that wasn't in the cards.
So, what did we learn today? I think we learned this:
* Speed didn't hold on the main track. As much as we've heard about the track playing fairly to all running styles, it didn't. Granted the speed horses weren't the stars in the races, however the majority flopped very badly. Indian Blessing held 2nd, but she's probably the most talented filly sprinter in the country. Dearest Trickski tanked and finished 11th in that race, C.S. Silk ran 7th in the Juvenile Fillies with Be Smart 13th and Palacio de Amor 14th. In the Ladies Classic, Bear Now ended up last, Santa Teresita second to last, and Hystericalady was 5th.
* There was no real location preference. Horses stabled predominantly on the East Coast, and those who made their final preps on the East Coast won the Filly & Mare Sprint (Ventura), the Juvenile Fillies Turf (Maram), and the F&M Turf (Forever Together). The West Coasters won the Juvenile Fillies (Stardom Bound) and Ladies Classic (Zenyatta).
* Of the 15 horses who hit the board, 8 made their final BC start in the East (Woodbine, Belmont), 3 in the Midwest (Keeneland), 3 in the West (Santa Anita), and 1 from Europe.
* No real comments on European form. Heart Shaped outran her odds in the Juvenile Fillies Turf to just miss at 11/1, but April Pride and Beyond Our Reach, both from Europe, ran 11th and 12th in that race. Pursuit of Glory ran 11th in the Juvenile Fillies, and Halfway to Heaven disappointed as the favorite in the F&M Turf to run 7th. Visit ran well to get 4th in that race. Honestly that tells me nothing. It continues to be a pure preference thing (of the horse), as it's always been. It's also somewhat ironic how American bettors completely ignored the Europeans in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, sending them off at 11/1, 13/1, and 28/1, and then dismissed Visit at 17/1, but then they fell in love with Halfway to Heaven (5/2) in a very deep race, and Pursuit of Glory (8/1)
With that pittance of information kept in mind, let's move on to Saturday -
Breeders' Cup Marathon
Honestly, I'm pretty surprised the Breeders' Cup even created this race. There's no 12f main track division anywhere in the world really, and the entrants resemble that. Of the American entrants, 5 of the 6 could have been had for any interested buyer at some point in their career by simply dropping a claim in the box. Only one of the Europeans has any real class, that being Jeremy Noseda's Sixties Icon, a winner of 3 straight Group 3 races who has never run on the main track.
The race seems to be completely void of speed, with the most likely scenario seeing Joe Talamo husting longshot Booyah (30/1) to the front with Zappa (5/2) in some sort of pursuit. Zappa was going to be my pick in this race, but he figures to be hit heavily at the windows and he just doesn't offer the value I'm looking for.
Over the years, Mike Mitchell has become one of my favorite trainers in California, and he sends out two here - Church Service (10/1) and Big Booster (9/2). He's named top riders on each - Edgar Prado and Rafael Bejarano - and I give each a big shot, but I'm having trouble differentiating between those two. Both are deep closers who are going to need some sort of pace to shoot at.
Best Bet: Have to go with Sixties Icon here. He's got class and wants the distance. If he takes to the surface, he just may be the easiest winner of the day.
Worst Bet: Wow, they all seem equally opportunistic here. I can make cases against the majority of the Americans, which isn't a good sign.
Sleeper: I'm looking to Delightful Kiss to be my sleeper. At 8/1 on the ML he's got a chance to go off at a price, and he's fallen in love with the synthetics at Turfway Park and Golden Gate in his last two starts. Calvin Borel is named to ride, and he's won a pair of Grade 3 stakes with this colt. He'll spot the field early, but look for this gray gelding to be flying late!
1. Sixties Icon (GB)
2. Delightful Kiss
3. Big Booster
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
My handicapping nemesis has always been turf sprint races, and the Breeders' Cup was kind enough to schedule one of those for me. Gotta love the use of polar opposites, though - going from slow horses loping along to a 2:26 final time in the first race on the card to the quickest horses in the country flying out to a 1:11 in change on the turf in the second.
Mr. Nightlinger (6/1) would be favored in this race, except he drew so poorly that he's nearly guaranteed to be wide throughout. The speedster has won 5 straight on the turf, all in wire-to-wire fashion, but that probably will not be the case here. Idiot Proof (8/1) loves to be close up, as does California Flag (15/1). That one just put on a scintillating show at Santa Anita on 9/24, getting 6.5f in 1:11 in the Morvich Handicap. A replication of that effort should get the job done. This race literally has the potential to go sub-:21 for the first quarter.
Best Bet: Scott Lake's True to Tradition (15/1) stands a big shot in here. He's a winner of two straight, including the Nearctic Stakes (Gr. II) at Woodbine last out. He's also beaten Heros Reward and Rouse the Cat in his last two. Rouse the Cat (20/1) is also an interesting candidate. He picks up rider Edgar Prado after a near miss in the Nearctic Stakes. They'll both find their trips from behind the pacesetters.
Worst Bet: Anyone of the speedballs or deep closers. Also expect Diabolical's odds to be too low based on name recognition.
1. Rouse the Cat
2. True to Tradition
3. Salute the Count
In honesty I could the majority of these coming through, though, and I'll be treading very lightly in this race.
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Now we at least get to some horses that the majority of fans have heard of. And hey, nothing like having a rare occurance in the race - how often do full brothers race against one another? That'll be the case when Doug O'Neill's duo of Slew's Tiznow (15/1) and Slew's Tizzy (20/1) enter the starting gate. Best of luck to Trevor Denman with that one.
The favorite here will most likely be the classy Well Armed (3/1), and I think he'll come down off his ML odds a bit. Cases can be made for or against him. He's got the best credentials of anyone in this race, having won a Grade 1 last time out as well as a pair of Grade 2 races earlier this year. He won the Goodwood over this surface last out, and just missed in the Pacific Classic. The real question is whether or not he can cut back to 8f. I'm not overly worried, given that the race is run around two turns. The sailing will not be clear up front, however. Mast Track (6/1) will run even though he faced a quarter crack issue earlier this week, Slew's Tizzy might go to the front, and Two Step Salsa (15/1) is all speed. My Pal Charlie (20/1) also prefers to be close to the pace. That scenario could spell doom for Well Armed, or could at least soften him up for the deep closers in here.
Best Bet(s) : I really like two horses in this race - Lewis Michael (5/1) and Albertus Maximus (4/1). I think the former will slide down from those odds, while the latter will head upward. Lewis Michael won the Pat O'Brien (Gr. II) at DelMar in August, and Catalano brings them back off the layoff at a huge percentage. He loves synthetics (7-3-3-0) and the distance (4-2-2-0). Look for him to come flying late. Albertus Maximus is a horse I'm not as high on, but he's got upside and is really coming into his own. He was flying late to get 3rd in the Goodwood, and his best is good enough to get a big piece.
Worst Bet : Yes, you've heard of Pyro. Maybe you even saw him race. He's not good enough to win this, nor does he want this distance. Nor does he want this surface. Tout him to all of your friends, and then run to the teller and bet on somebody else. I also think Surf Cat (6/1) is a difficult horse to back. I'm a huge fan of the 6yo horse, but enough is enough for me backing him. He's won 2 of 11, yet continues to be backed heavily at the windows. The distance might just be ideal for him, but he's not a horse I'm going to go down backing.
1. Lewis Michael
2. Well Armed
3. Albertus Maximus
So, what did we learn today? I think we learned this:
* Speed didn't hold on the main track. As much as we've heard about the track playing fairly to all running styles, it didn't. Granted the speed horses weren't the stars in the races, however the majority flopped very badly. Indian Blessing held 2nd, but she's probably the most talented filly sprinter in the country. Dearest Trickski tanked and finished 11th in that race, C.S. Silk ran 7th in the Juvenile Fillies with Be Smart 13th and Palacio de Amor 14th. In the Ladies Classic, Bear Now ended up last, Santa Teresita second to last, and Hystericalady was 5th.
* There was no real location preference. Horses stabled predominantly on the East Coast, and those who made their final preps on the East Coast won the Filly & Mare Sprint (Ventura), the Juvenile Fillies Turf (Maram), and the F&M Turf (Forever Together). The West Coasters won the Juvenile Fillies (Stardom Bound) and Ladies Classic (Zenyatta).
* Of the 15 horses who hit the board, 8 made their final BC start in the East (Woodbine, Belmont), 3 in the Midwest (Keeneland), 3 in the West (Santa Anita), and 1 from Europe.
* No real comments on European form. Heart Shaped outran her odds in the Juvenile Fillies Turf to just miss at 11/1, but April Pride and Beyond Our Reach, both from Europe, ran 11th and 12th in that race. Pursuit of Glory ran 11th in the Juvenile Fillies, and Halfway to Heaven disappointed as the favorite in the F&M Turf to run 7th. Visit ran well to get 4th in that race. Honestly that tells me nothing. It continues to be a pure preference thing (of the horse), as it's always been. It's also somewhat ironic how American bettors completely ignored the Europeans in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, sending them off at 11/1, 13/1, and 28/1, and then dismissed Visit at 17/1, but then they fell in love with Halfway to Heaven (5/2) in a very deep race, and Pursuit of Glory (8/1)
With that pittance of information kept in mind, let's move on to Saturday -
Breeders' Cup Marathon
Honestly, I'm pretty surprised the Breeders' Cup even created this race. There's no 12f main track division anywhere in the world really, and the entrants resemble that. Of the American entrants, 5 of the 6 could have been had for any interested buyer at some point in their career by simply dropping a claim in the box. Only one of the Europeans has any real class, that being Jeremy Noseda's Sixties Icon, a winner of 3 straight Group 3 races who has never run on the main track.
The race seems to be completely void of speed, with the most likely scenario seeing Joe Talamo husting longshot Booyah (30/1) to the front with Zappa (5/2) in some sort of pursuit. Zappa was going to be my pick in this race, but he figures to be hit heavily at the windows and he just doesn't offer the value I'm looking for.
Over the years, Mike Mitchell has become one of my favorite trainers in California, and he sends out two here - Church Service (10/1) and Big Booster (9/2). He's named top riders on each - Edgar Prado and Rafael Bejarano - and I give each a big shot, but I'm having trouble differentiating between those two. Both are deep closers who are going to need some sort of pace to shoot at.
Best Bet: Have to go with Sixties Icon here. He's got class and wants the distance. If he takes to the surface, he just may be the easiest winner of the day.
Worst Bet: Wow, they all seem equally opportunistic here. I can make cases against the majority of the Americans, which isn't a good sign.
Sleeper: I'm looking to Delightful Kiss to be my sleeper. At 8/1 on the ML he's got a chance to go off at a price, and he's fallen in love with the synthetics at Turfway Park and Golden Gate in his last two starts. Calvin Borel is named to ride, and he's won a pair of Grade 3 stakes with this colt. He'll spot the field early, but look for this gray gelding to be flying late!
1. Sixties Icon (GB)
2. Delightful Kiss
3. Big Booster
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
My handicapping nemesis has always been turf sprint races, and the Breeders' Cup was kind enough to schedule one of those for me. Gotta love the use of polar opposites, though - going from slow horses loping along to a 2:26 final time in the first race on the card to the quickest horses in the country flying out to a 1:11 in change on the turf in the second.
Mr. Nightlinger (6/1) would be favored in this race, except he drew so poorly that he's nearly guaranteed to be wide throughout. The speedster has won 5 straight on the turf, all in wire-to-wire fashion, but that probably will not be the case here. Idiot Proof (8/1) loves to be close up, as does California Flag (15/1). That one just put on a scintillating show at Santa Anita on 9/24, getting 6.5f in 1:11 in the Morvich Handicap. A replication of that effort should get the job done. This race literally has the potential to go sub-:21 for the first quarter.
Best Bet: Scott Lake's True to Tradition (15/1) stands a big shot in here. He's a winner of two straight, including the Nearctic Stakes (Gr. II) at Woodbine last out. He's also beaten Heros Reward and Rouse the Cat in his last two. Rouse the Cat (20/1) is also an interesting candidate. He picks up rider Edgar Prado after a near miss in the Nearctic Stakes. They'll both find their trips from behind the pacesetters.
Worst Bet: Anyone of the speedballs or deep closers. Also expect Diabolical's odds to be too low based on name recognition.
1. Rouse the Cat
2. True to Tradition
3. Salute the Count
In honesty I could the majority of these coming through, though, and I'll be treading very lightly in this race.
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Now we at least get to some horses that the majority of fans have heard of. And hey, nothing like having a rare occurance in the race - how often do full brothers race against one another? That'll be the case when Doug O'Neill's duo of Slew's Tiznow (15/1) and Slew's Tizzy (20/1) enter the starting gate. Best of luck to Trevor Denman with that one.
The favorite here will most likely be the classy Well Armed (3/1), and I think he'll come down off his ML odds a bit. Cases can be made for or against him. He's got the best credentials of anyone in this race, having won a Grade 1 last time out as well as a pair of Grade 2 races earlier this year. He won the Goodwood over this surface last out, and just missed in the Pacific Classic. The real question is whether or not he can cut back to 8f. I'm not overly worried, given that the race is run around two turns. The sailing will not be clear up front, however. Mast Track (6/1) will run even though he faced a quarter crack issue earlier this week, Slew's Tizzy might go to the front, and Two Step Salsa (15/1) is all speed. My Pal Charlie (20/1) also prefers to be close to the pace. That scenario could spell doom for Well Armed, or could at least soften him up for the deep closers in here.
Best Bet(s) : I really like two horses in this race - Lewis Michael (5/1) and Albertus Maximus (4/1). I think the former will slide down from those odds, while the latter will head upward. Lewis Michael won the Pat O'Brien (Gr. II) at DelMar in August, and Catalano brings them back off the layoff at a huge percentage. He loves synthetics (7-3-3-0) and the distance (4-2-2-0). Look for him to come flying late. Albertus Maximus is a horse I'm not as high on, but he's got upside and is really coming into his own. He was flying late to get 3rd in the Goodwood, and his best is good enough to get a big piece.
Worst Bet : Yes, you've heard of Pyro. Maybe you even saw him race. He's not good enough to win this, nor does he want this distance. Nor does he want this surface. Tout him to all of your friends, and then run to the teller and bet on somebody else. I also think Surf Cat (6/1) is a difficult horse to back. I'm a huge fan of the 6yo horse, but enough is enough for me backing him. He's won 2 of 11, yet continues to be backed heavily at the windows. The distance might just be ideal for him, but he's not a horse I'm going to go down backing.
1. Lewis Michael
2. Well Armed
3. Albertus Maximus
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Breeders' Cup Ladies Day (10/24/08)
I had originally itended to start this entry with a brief commentary regarding my thoughts on the whole "Ladies Day" format, but on second thought decided it was best to hold off formulating a true opinion until I see the attendance, handle, television ratings, etc. for the two days. So, without further adieu (who had a filly by Giant's Causeway this year), here are my selections -
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Honestly, I'm not sure that they could have started off the day with a better race. This is a race that seems to have everything that a marquee race should have - quality speed, quality closers, fan favorites, and several possible winners. At first glance, it's very difficult to make a case against Bob Baffert's superstar filly Indian Blessing, who sits as the 2/1 morning line favorite. In races run at less than 8f, she's an undefeated 5 for 5. She's run four consecutive 100+ Beyer figures, but more importantly she's added another dimension to her running style - she now gives jockey Johhny Velazquez the option of rating behind other horses, whereas in the past she was hellbent on going to the lead. She's run over a synthetic just once, and it did result in a victory in the Santa Ynez Stakes (Gr. II), however that win was only by a nose.
The pace in this race looks as if it will be quite quick - even with the defection of Indyanne (12/1), who was forced to scratch due to a minor illness. Longshot Dream Rush (20/1) has failed to progress from age 3 to age 4, yet she still is a classy filly with a ton of early speed. In this race last year, she blazed through fractions of :21 1/5 and :44 before finishing 5th. Unfortunately she has not been the same horse in 2008, and a win here by her would be a shock. Dearest Trickski (12/1), a winner of 4 of 5, will also be near the pace, however she'll need a career best to be competitive here. Don't count her out, though. She seems to be the forgotten horse in this race, and she's 6 for 8 on synthetic surfaces. La Tee (30/1) also prefers to be near the lead, as does Lady Sprinter (15/1), a multiple Group 1 winner in Argentina.
Most Likely: While Indian Blessing looms very large, I think the best bet in this race might just be Bobby Frankel's Ventura (5/1). She's run first or second in 5 of 6 starts stateside, and is a Grade 2 winner on a synthetic at this distance. She prepped for this race by taking on the males in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile, and she did a fine job of it by finishing 2nd. Her running style will suit her well on the surface, and at anything around the 5/1 she's worth a second glance.
Worst Bet: I really cant sit behind Intangaroo (9/2) in here, especially for one of the top prizes. She's definitely a talented filly, but I think she'll ultimately do her best running on conventional dirt surfaces. Her two biggest victories of the year - the Grade 1 Humana Distaff and Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes - came over the courses at Churchill Downs and Saratoga. She's only 3 for 11 lifetime on the synthetics, and her career high Beyer on the surface is a 93. She earned a 99 in both of her conventional dirt victories.
Sleeper: I think there are quite a few sleepers in this field. I've already discussed Dearest Trickski, but I think Tiz Elemental (20/1) is set to run a big one, as well as Lady Sprinter.
1. Ventura
2. Indian Blessing
3. Dearest Trickski
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
In what figures to be one of the least exciting races of the event, the Breeders' Cup has at least done well to entice a full field of fillies for this one. Unfortunately, most aren't that good.
Most Likely: You know, Laragh (7/2) ran such a powerful race last time out in the Jessamine at Keeneland that I just can't go against her here. Previously trained by Mark Casse, she ran an uninspired 5th in the Natalma Stakes (Gr. III) at Woodbine, but for some reason she's a different filly now. Plus there isn't much pace in here besides the Calder-shipper Renda (10/1), who looks in deep in her turf debut. C Karma (8/1) looms large as well.
Worst Bet: This looks to be one of those races where a bet for anyone other than Laragh, C Karma, Saucey Evening, or Heart Shaped is a bad bet.
Sleeper: In the event that the pace does heat up, I look for Consequence (8/1) to run a big one. She moved too wide to get the job done in the Ms Grillo (Gr. III) at Belmont but still contributed to a blanket finish in that race. She unleashed a strong 4f workout in :46 over the Santa Anita main track, and Saturday will be her first chance to run over a firm turf course. Her connections will ensure that her odds don't drift too high, and she should be considered strongly for a minor piece.
1. Laragh
2. Consequence
3. Heart Shaped
It's also very unfortunate that Russell Baze's mount, Atka (30/1), is on the outside looking in. It's always a pleasure to watch Russy tank at the highest level of racing and then run back to Northern California with his tail between his legs.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
In a race that historically goes to the premier horse in the crop, 12 of the 13 entrants will be looking to buck a significant trend among winners in this race. The favorite has won the last 6 runnings of this race, and 14 of 24 times overall. Overall, favorites are 24-14-1-4 (ITM 79.2%). On the other hand, second choices in the betting are 24-2-7-3 (ITM 50%, but only 25% since 2000). That means good things for Chris Paasch and his entrant Stardom Bound, who opens at 2/1 on the ML. She's won two straight, and her victories have been nothing short of exceptional. She should get some sort of pace to shoot at, with C.S. Silk (15/1), Be Smart (15/1), and Palacio de Amor (12/1) in the field. Outside of Stardom Bound, the wagering looks to be absolutely wide open.
Doremifasollatido (15/1) won the Gr. II Matron Stakes, but draws a difficult post position outside of her 12 competitors. Similarly, Alcibiades Stakes (Gr. I) winner Dream Express (6/1) drew the 12 hole. Those posts may prove to be quite detrimental, especially for Doremifasollatido, who I'd prefer not to win anyway - unless Denman plans on singing her name down the lane, that is. Eh, on second thought, I just prathat he doesn't miss a horse making a huge run up the rail en route to a 10 length victory...again. Sky Diva (7/2) looks to be a notable adversary, but it's difficult to be positive about her chances given the way that 2nd choices in this race have run, as well as the fact that she's never run on a synthetic.
Worst Bet: It's got to be Doremifasollatido. The post is very bad, and she's either going to be further behind than she wants to be, or wider than she should be.
Sleeper: With a perceived short priced favorite, there should be many possible winners with enticing odds. The Lukas barn is very high on Be Smart (15/1), and I've read several respected handicappers throwing their support behind Van Lear Rose (30/1). For my sleeper, I'll go with Dale Romans' C.S. Silk (15/1). She won the Arlington-Washington Lassie (Gr. III) over the synthetic at Arlington Park, and comes into this with a ton of confidence, having won her last two by a combined 12 1/4 lengths. She should be able to work out a nice stalking trip, and will be the one that the winner has to catch.
1. Stardom Bound
2. C.S. Silk
3. Van Lear Rose
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf
In what figures to be an outstanding race, there are two that simply stand above the rest in my eyes. I would absolutely love to see Wait a While (3/1) take this race, yet I'm just not sure that she's capable. The pros with this one are many - she loves the Santa Anita turf (3 for 3 lifetime, including 2 Grade 1 wins), she loves firm going (8 for 12 lifetime), and she loves the distance (3 for 4 lifetime). She should work out the perfect trip, tucked in behind the frontrunners. She'll need her best, though, with classy fillies like Mauralakana (5/1), Forever Together (6/1), Halfway to Heaven (4/1), and Pure Clan (15/1) flying at her late.
Best Bet: So, with that said, I think the best bet in here is the aformentioned Forever Together. Her running style suits in this race, and she has never failed to fire since trainer Jonathan Sheppard put her on the turf in May. She won the First Lady Stakes (Gr. I) at Keeneland last out, and ran down the talented Precious Kitten in the process. She also came flying late to take the Diana (Gr. I) at Saratoga. She's untried at the distance, but her running style makes me think she is capable of winning at 10f. Leparoux chooses her over Pure Clan.
I'm also looking for a big run out of Mauralakana, who lost all chance in her last when forced to rally prematurely to try and lasso a loose on the lead frontrunner. Britain's Halfway to Heaven will be dangerous as well.
I honestly don't see a "worst bet" in this race. I don't think Vacare (10/1) will appreciate the distance, but her odds reflect that. Juddmonte's Visit (15/1) has never run this long, but again her odds reflect that. Sealy Hill (15/1) is simply outclassed.
Sleeper: If you ignore her 5th place finish in the Glen Falls (Gr. III), Dynaforce (6/1) is 3-1-2-0 in her starts on this side of the pond. She ran a great race in the Diana (Gr. I) only to be nipped by Forever Together late, and she ran exceptionally well in the New York Handicap (Gr. II), only to be nipped by Mauralakana at the wire. She'll drift up from 6/1 on the ML with some of the others taking money.
1. Forever Together
2. Wait a While
3. Mauralakana
Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic
In what figures to be the highlight of a great day of racing, the undefeated and untested Zenyatta (3/5) will look to stretch her winning streak to 9. She's already defeated the many of her biggest challengers, including Hystericalady (15/1) and Ginger Punch (9/2).
Best Bet/Sleeper: If Zenyatta loses, I think it'll be to one of the Godolphin fillies - Cocoa Beach (8/1) or Music Note (6/1). Of the two, I prefer Cocoa Beach. By all accounts, she's working very well for this race, and is finally coming into her own. She defeated a very game Ginger Punch last out in the Beldame (Gr. I), and should be ready to fire a huge effort here. Hystericalady offers a ton of value if you can get her anywhere near 15/1.
1. Zenyatta
2. Cocoa Beach
3. Ginger Punch
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Honestly, I'm not sure that they could have started off the day with a better race. This is a race that seems to have everything that a marquee race should have - quality speed, quality closers, fan favorites, and several possible winners. At first glance, it's very difficult to make a case against Bob Baffert's superstar filly Indian Blessing, who sits as the 2/1 morning line favorite. In races run at less than 8f, she's an undefeated 5 for 5. She's run four consecutive 100+ Beyer figures, but more importantly she's added another dimension to her running style - she now gives jockey Johhny Velazquez the option of rating behind other horses, whereas in the past she was hellbent on going to the lead. She's run over a synthetic just once, and it did result in a victory in the Santa Ynez Stakes (Gr. II), however that win was only by a nose.
The pace in this race looks as if it will be quite quick - even with the defection of Indyanne (12/1), who was forced to scratch due to a minor illness. Longshot Dream Rush (20/1) has failed to progress from age 3 to age 4, yet she still is a classy filly with a ton of early speed. In this race last year, she blazed through fractions of :21 1/5 and :44 before finishing 5th. Unfortunately she has not been the same horse in 2008, and a win here by her would be a shock. Dearest Trickski (12/1), a winner of 4 of 5, will also be near the pace, however she'll need a career best to be competitive here. Don't count her out, though. She seems to be the forgotten horse in this race, and she's 6 for 8 on synthetic surfaces. La Tee (30/1) also prefers to be near the lead, as does Lady Sprinter (15/1), a multiple Group 1 winner in Argentina.
Most Likely: While Indian Blessing looms very large, I think the best bet in this race might just be Bobby Frankel's Ventura (5/1). She's run first or second in 5 of 6 starts stateside, and is a Grade 2 winner on a synthetic at this distance. She prepped for this race by taking on the males in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile, and she did a fine job of it by finishing 2nd. Her running style will suit her well on the surface, and at anything around the 5/1 she's worth a second glance.
Worst Bet: I really cant sit behind Intangaroo (9/2) in here, especially for one of the top prizes. She's definitely a talented filly, but I think she'll ultimately do her best running on conventional dirt surfaces. Her two biggest victories of the year - the Grade 1 Humana Distaff and Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes - came over the courses at Churchill Downs and Saratoga. She's only 3 for 11 lifetime on the synthetics, and her career high Beyer on the surface is a 93. She earned a 99 in both of her conventional dirt victories.
Sleeper: I think there are quite a few sleepers in this field. I've already discussed Dearest Trickski, but I think Tiz Elemental (20/1) is set to run a big one, as well as Lady Sprinter.
1. Ventura
2. Indian Blessing
3. Dearest Trickski
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
In what figures to be one of the least exciting races of the event, the Breeders' Cup has at least done well to entice a full field of fillies for this one. Unfortunately, most aren't that good.
Most Likely: You know, Laragh (7/2) ran such a powerful race last time out in the Jessamine at Keeneland that I just can't go against her here. Previously trained by Mark Casse, she ran an uninspired 5th in the Natalma Stakes (Gr. III) at Woodbine, but for some reason she's a different filly now. Plus there isn't much pace in here besides the Calder-shipper Renda (10/1), who looks in deep in her turf debut. C Karma (8/1) looms large as well.
Worst Bet: This looks to be one of those races where a bet for anyone other than Laragh, C Karma, Saucey Evening, or Heart Shaped is a bad bet.
Sleeper: In the event that the pace does heat up, I look for Consequence (8/1) to run a big one. She moved too wide to get the job done in the Ms Grillo (Gr. III) at Belmont but still contributed to a blanket finish in that race. She unleashed a strong 4f workout in :46 over the Santa Anita main track, and Saturday will be her first chance to run over a firm turf course. Her connections will ensure that her odds don't drift too high, and she should be considered strongly for a minor piece.
1. Laragh
2. Consequence
3. Heart Shaped
It's also very unfortunate that Russell Baze's mount, Atka (30/1), is on the outside looking in. It's always a pleasure to watch Russy tank at the highest level of racing and then run back to Northern California with his tail between his legs.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
In a race that historically goes to the premier horse in the crop, 12 of the 13 entrants will be looking to buck a significant trend among winners in this race. The favorite has won the last 6 runnings of this race, and 14 of 24 times overall. Overall, favorites are 24-14-1-4 (ITM 79.2%). On the other hand, second choices in the betting are 24-2-7-3 (ITM 50%, but only 25% since 2000). That means good things for Chris Paasch and his entrant Stardom Bound, who opens at 2/1 on the ML. She's won two straight, and her victories have been nothing short of exceptional. She should get some sort of pace to shoot at, with C.S. Silk (15/1), Be Smart (15/1), and Palacio de Amor (12/1) in the field. Outside of Stardom Bound, the wagering looks to be absolutely wide open.
Doremifasollatido (15/1) won the Gr. II Matron Stakes, but draws a difficult post position outside of her 12 competitors. Similarly, Alcibiades Stakes (Gr. I) winner Dream Express (6/1) drew the 12 hole. Those posts may prove to be quite detrimental, especially for Doremifasollatido, who I'd prefer not to win anyway - unless Denman plans on singing her name down the lane, that is. Eh, on second thought, I just prathat he doesn't miss a horse making a huge run up the rail en route to a 10 length victory...again. Sky Diva (7/2) looks to be a notable adversary, but it's difficult to be positive about her chances given the way that 2nd choices in this race have run, as well as the fact that she's never run on a synthetic.
Worst Bet: It's got to be Doremifasollatido. The post is very bad, and she's either going to be further behind than she wants to be, or wider than she should be.
Sleeper: With a perceived short priced favorite, there should be many possible winners with enticing odds. The Lukas barn is very high on Be Smart (15/1), and I've read several respected handicappers throwing their support behind Van Lear Rose (30/1). For my sleeper, I'll go with Dale Romans' C.S. Silk (15/1). She won the Arlington-Washington Lassie (Gr. III) over the synthetic at Arlington Park, and comes into this with a ton of confidence, having won her last two by a combined 12 1/4 lengths. She should be able to work out a nice stalking trip, and will be the one that the winner has to catch.
1. Stardom Bound
2. C.S. Silk
3. Van Lear Rose
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf
In what figures to be an outstanding race, there are two that simply stand above the rest in my eyes. I would absolutely love to see Wait a While (3/1) take this race, yet I'm just not sure that she's capable. The pros with this one are many - she loves the Santa Anita turf (3 for 3 lifetime, including 2 Grade 1 wins), she loves firm going (8 for 12 lifetime), and she loves the distance (3 for 4 lifetime). She should work out the perfect trip, tucked in behind the frontrunners. She'll need her best, though, with classy fillies like Mauralakana (5/1), Forever Together (6/1), Halfway to Heaven (4/1), and Pure Clan (15/1) flying at her late.
Best Bet: So, with that said, I think the best bet in here is the aformentioned Forever Together. Her running style suits in this race, and she has never failed to fire since trainer Jonathan Sheppard put her on the turf in May. She won the First Lady Stakes (Gr. I) at Keeneland last out, and ran down the talented Precious Kitten in the process. She also came flying late to take the Diana (Gr. I) at Saratoga. She's untried at the distance, but her running style makes me think she is capable of winning at 10f. Leparoux chooses her over Pure Clan.
I'm also looking for a big run out of Mauralakana, who lost all chance in her last when forced to rally prematurely to try and lasso a loose on the lead frontrunner. Britain's Halfway to Heaven will be dangerous as well.
I honestly don't see a "worst bet" in this race. I don't think Vacare (10/1) will appreciate the distance, but her odds reflect that. Juddmonte's Visit (15/1) has never run this long, but again her odds reflect that. Sealy Hill (15/1) is simply outclassed.
Sleeper: If you ignore her 5th place finish in the Glen Falls (Gr. III), Dynaforce (6/1) is 3-1-2-0 in her starts on this side of the pond. She ran a great race in the Diana (Gr. I) only to be nipped by Forever Together late, and she ran exceptionally well in the New York Handicap (Gr. II), only to be nipped by Mauralakana at the wire. She'll drift up from 6/1 on the ML with some of the others taking money.
1. Forever Together
2. Wait a While
3. Mauralakana
Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic
In what figures to be the highlight of a great day of racing, the undefeated and untested Zenyatta (3/5) will look to stretch her winning streak to 9. She's already defeated the many of her biggest challengers, including Hystericalady (15/1) and Ginger Punch (9/2).
Best Bet/Sleeper: If Zenyatta loses, I think it'll be to one of the Godolphin fillies - Cocoa Beach (8/1) or Music Note (6/1). Of the two, I prefer Cocoa Beach. By all accounts, she's working very well for this race, and is finally coming into her own. She defeated a very game Ginger Punch last out in the Beldame (Gr. I), and should be ready to fire a huge effort here. Hystericalady offers a ton of value if you can get her anywhere near 15/1.
1. Zenyatta
2. Cocoa Beach
3. Ginger Punch
Me....who else?
Well, I guess the most logical place to start my initial foray into the worldwide blogosphere is a brief intoduction of myself - namely why the heck you should take the time to read what I have to say. I'm a 21 year old college senior pursuing a degree in Marketing. I've lived my entire life in dreary Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, but I do have to admit - the city has grown on me. I love it here. My passions in life are the same as others my age - family, friends, and sports, usually in that order. However, as former San Francisco Giants utility infielder Al Gallagher once said, "There are three things in my life which I really love: God, my family, and baseball. The only problem - once baseball season starts, I change the order around a bit." I guess I follow that philosophy a bit. If it comes down to a night of drinking with friends, or staying in to watch Game 6 of the Red Sox/Rays ALCS, I can be found on my couch. Oh, and don't even bother trying to get ahold of me during Saturday (or Friday) during the Breeders' Cup. In 2003, I discovered and truly fell in love with horse racing. I could sidetrack here and go on about stories involving Kentucky Derby trips, Preakness trips, internet forums, new friends, and a myriad of stories ranging from hilarious to heartbreaking, but that's not really the point of this.
I've been meaning to start a blog for years, and I guess I finally just decided that now was the right time to get around to writing it. I highly doubt that I'll be breaking any news here - I have no real sources in the industry, and in the event that I do hear something, I'm generally not at liberty to discuss it publically out of respect to the connections of the horse. However, I will do my best to fill that void with interesting commentaries and opinions, as well as handicapping advice and maybe even some new ideas for those in the industry. Plus, this blog will not be limited to horse racing - I plan on typing about whatever is on my mind - football, baseball, hockey, basketball, life, Lacey Chabert, and anything else that seems worthy of an opinion. So at this point, my own mother has probably stopped reading, so I'll cut this one short and work on my selections for Ladies' Day at the Breeders' Cup!
I've been meaning to start a blog for years, and I guess I finally just decided that now was the right time to get around to writing it. I highly doubt that I'll be breaking any news here - I have no real sources in the industry, and in the event that I do hear something, I'm generally not at liberty to discuss it publically out of respect to the connections of the horse. However, I will do my best to fill that void with interesting commentaries and opinions, as well as handicapping advice and maybe even some new ideas for those in the industry. Plus, this blog will not be limited to horse racing - I plan on typing about whatever is on my mind - football, baseball, hockey, basketball, life, Lacey Chabert, and anything else that seems worthy of an opinion. So at this point, my own mother has probably stopped reading, so I'll cut this one short and work on my selections for Ladies' Day at the Breeders' Cup!
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