Monday, December 21, 2009

The Postman Let Me Down...Again

The United States Postal Service handles billions of pieces of mail every December - everything from your Christmas card to that relative you haven't seen or talked to in a year, that fruitcake for Uncle Albert, or that ugly sweater that your great aunt hand-knit for your teenage son. And more than often, and we're talking an incredible amount of the time, they get the job done without fault. But I have a complaint. It seems that every year, they manage to lose my official Eclipse Awards ballot. Around the first of December, I start skipping to the mailbox every day thinking that day is going to be the day it finally arrives. And every day, I end up dejectedly retreating from the mailbox, no ballot in hand. So where is it? Where all of the missing mail goes. Topeka, Kansas. I hope somebody there fills it out for me. Oh well, maybe next year.

Below are my selections for the 2009 Thoroughbred Eclipse Awards. These and $1.19 will get you a small coffee from McDonald's. But can a cup of coffee bring you such logical insight? Of course not. Then again, can this column keep you awake like a shot of caffeine can? You tell me.

Champion Apprentice Jockey

Inez Karlsson leads all apprentices in both wins and earnings, and made a very strong showing for herself at the Arlington Park summer meet, as well as several others. Wins at a solid 15% clip and hits the board at a 44% rate, and can't really find fault in anything that she's done in 2009. In most year's she'd be a runaway selection for me, but not 2009. I actually prefer Christian Santiago Reyes here. The 19 year old Puerto Rican import didn't earn his first victory in the States until April at Gulfstream, and immediately made a name for himself in Southern California. Has 93 winners on the year (fewer than Karlsson), $2,413,676 in earnings (fewer than Karlsson), but this is a kid that was a Top 6 rider at DelMar this summer (beating out veterans like Solis, Quinonez, and Smith), is currently in the Top 10 at Hollywood Park, and has made a name for himself in a very difficult jockey colony out west. Also checked in second in the rider standings at Fairplex Park, and won the Cal Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita. I also give guys like Luis Saez a ton of credit, and like I said, Karlsson is a heck of a rider, but ultimately Reyes gets the nod from me.
Pick - Christian Santiago Reyes

Champion Breeder

You might as well just rename this award the "Alright, we're going to let Frank talk for a few moments, I really hope he doesn't have spinach in his teeth" award, because it seems that Stronach's Adena Springs will be the premier breeder in North America for as long as he wants to keep pumping out thoroughbreds. He has won this award in 5 consecutive years, but he's deserved it. Led the nation in breeder wins and earnings by landslide margins in 2009, and also bred 3 graded stakes winners. Would be remiss if I didn't also give a mention to Juddmonte Farms, a 4-time winner of this award, who led all breeders with 10 graded wins and 6 Grade 1 wins, but had just 43 winners in North America. Probably horse for horse, they had a stronger year than Adena, but due to the sheer magnitude of the statistics, I still give the edge to Stronach and Co. If only Frank could have run racetracks like he ran his breeding conglomerate.
Pick - Adena Springs

Champion Owner

A pretty unique award in that, even with so many powerhouse stables nationwide, it has gone to a different owner every year since 2002. Not too bad for parity at all. And in 2009, it's pretty safe to say that voters have a ton of options from which to choose. WinStar Farm led the nation in earnings, and their impressive stable featured stars like Well Armed (Dubai World Cup), Court Vision (in a partnership with IEAH Stables; Shadwell Turf Mile), as well as three Kentucky Derby entrants, and three impressive juvenile graded winners (Rule, Super Saver, American Lion). Juddmonte Farms, scored 6 Grade 1 wins with Ventura, Champs Elysees, Midships, and Midday, the last being in the Breeders' Cup, but overall won just 27 races in North America. Godolphin Racing had another banner year, winning 8 Grade 1 races with a large number of different horses, including Pyro, Vineyard Haven, Music Note, Flashing, Seventh Street, and Gayego, and also won graded races with several others, including Sara Louise, Regal Ransom, Desert Party, and Girolamo, did well with Midshipman, who ran 3rd in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, which has still never been run on the dirt going a mile. My main concern with Godolphin's 2009 campaign is that essentially from January through July, and them from November on, Godolphin did nothing in North America. From August 1 - October 31, Godolphin won 6 of its 8 Grade 1 races. Michael J. Gill had another incredible year in the claiming game, winning at a clip of more than a race per day (364 winners through 12/20/09), and he's second in earnings, behind just WinStar. The usual knocks will come out - he does it all with claimers and he doesn't care enough for his horses - but he did win this award in 2005, so the precedent definitely exists. M/M Jerome S. Moss had a solid year that was capped by a win in the Breeders' Cup Classic by their spectacular Zenyatta, but beyond Zenyatta, their 2009 campaign wasn't overly deep. She accounted for 5 of their 7 graded wins, and all 4 of their Gr 1 victories.
Pick - Godolphin Racing

Champion Jockey

An award that is often won in bunches, 8 times since 1993 has the defending champion had his name called again. Jerry Bailey leads the way with 7 championships, and Johnny Velazquez, Mike Smith, and Garrett Gomez have 2 each, and Gomez is the two-time defending champion (2007, 2008). Can Gomez make it 3 straight in 2009? It's one tough decision. I went back and forth between Gomez and Julien Leparoux more than a few times, as each had banner years in thoroughbred racing. Leparoux holds an edge in both wins (247 to 206; through 12/20/09) and earnings ($18.56M to $18.33M), whereas Gomez holds the edge in win percentage and WPS percentage. Amazingly, both scored 34 graded victories, with Gomez holding the edge in G1 wins (13 to 10) and G2 wins (15 to 10), whereas Leparoux got the nod with G3 winners (14 to 6). Leparoux bagged three winners on the Breeders' Cup card, with Furthest Land, She Be Wild, and Informed Decision, whereas Gomez picked up just one (Life Is Sweet). Honestly, I think the statistics are so close that you could go either way with your choice, but I'm going with Leparoux. I love the way the guy rides, and if I were starting a horse, this is the guy I'd want to have in my corner. Not that Gomez is a bad alternative...
Pick - Julien Leparoux

Champion Trainer

The last time a trainer didn't win at least consecutive 'Champion Trainer' titles was way back in 1995, when Bill Mott knocked off D.W. Lukas' one year run. Since then, this award has been a series of runs - Bill Mott (2 years), Bob Baffert (3 years), Bobby Frankel (4 years), Todd Pletcher (4 years), and now it's Steve Asmussen's turn to try to make it two straight, and he probably should. For the third consecutive year, he broke his own record for victories in a season (640 and counting, more than twice what the second guy has). He also leads the country in earnings (more than $6M ahead of the next guy), and won 21 graded races, 7 of which came at the G1 level. His victories include the Woodward, Preakness, Cigar Mile, Vosburgh, Haskell, Mother Goose, and Spinaway, as well as the Jim Dandy, and many other elite races. He was the trainer of Rachel Alexandra from mid-May on. The other logical candidate is Bob Baffert. 'Baffy' led the nation with 10 Grade 1 wins and checked in 3rd nationally with earnings over $9M and sent 109 winners to have their picture taken. In most years his resume would be enough to get the nod, but not in 2009.
Pick - Steve Asmussen

Champion Female Sprinter

With a division that included stellar fillies/mares like Ventura, Indian Blessing, and Informed Decision, it's tough to think that this award could be won in landslide fashion, but I definitely think it should be. Informed Decision put together a campaign that saw her win 6 of 7 starts, 3 of which at the Gr 1 level, and her wins included the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, the Humana Distaff, the Madison Stakes, the TCA Stakes, the Chicago Handicap, and the Presque Isle Masters. She defeated Ventura twice, and won G1 races on both the dirt and synthetic. She earned $1,435,030 in her career. Ventura had a similarly dominating year, but I don't think this is the right award for her. She ran just three times in main track sprint races, and she lost 2 of those 3. The only sprint race she won in 2009 was the Gr 1 Santa Monica in January. She had a more dominating season running a mile on the turf. Have to give a shout-out to Indian Blessing, who retires with wins in 10 of 16 starts, and added the Gr 2 Gallant Bloom to her resume in 2009, and also placed in a pair of Gr 1 races - the Dubai Golden Shaheen against the boys and the Ballerina at Saratoga.
Pick - Informed Decision

Champion Male Sprinter

You want a wide-open division, this is it. I believe a case can be made for about 3 or 4 runners in this lot, but after much deliberation, I think I've got a choice. Zensational reeled off 3 Grade 1 wins from July through September, the Triple Bend, Bing Crosby, and Pat O Brien, and overall won 5 of 7 starts in 2009. I have a few concerns with him, though. I feel that in his three Gr 1 victories, he really beat no Gr 1 horses. And also, he flopped in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, checking in 5th of 9 behind Dancing in Silks. Then you've got Kodiak Kowboy, who ironically didn't check into the discussion until his victory in the 8f Cigar Mile Handicap, a race that isn't even technically a sprint. But overall, 'Kowboy does bring a solid resume to the table, with victories in the aforementioned Cigar Mile, as well as the Gr 1 Vosburgh, the Gr 1 Carter, and the ungraded Donald LeVine at Philly Park. He did win only once at the most traditional 6f distance, but the list of horses he defeated includes Fabulous Strike (twice), Vineyard Haven, Pyro, Bribon, Munnings, and Driven By Success. The best true sprinter in North America might actually be the incredibly talented California Flag, a turf sprinter who won 3 of 4 starts including the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, the Gr 3 Morvich Handicap, and the Green Flash at DelMar, and also ran a close-up 5th in the Gr 1 Cathway Pacific Hong Kong Sprint. Can't see the award going to a horse who lacks a Gr 1 win, though, but he's definitely the best on the turf in North America. Dancing in Silks won the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint, but other than that, his resume includes just one open-company win, and that came against allowance horses. His other wins came against restricted/state-bred company in the Cal Cup Sprint and the Pirates Bounty, and overall he just doesn't bring enough to the table. My main determining factor in making a choice here is level of competition, and I believe that Kodiak Kowboy, while he didn't excel at just a traditional sprint distance (although he is a Gr 1 winner going 6f), he beat better horses than did Zensational, and receives my backing here.
Pick - Kodiak Kowboy

Champion 2yo Female

Biases sometimes make for the easiest tie-breaker, but what is one to do when you're biased toward BOTH of the things that you're choosing between? Such is my plight in this category. On one hand I've got She Be Wild, the Juvenile Fillies (Gr 1) victor and the anchor-leg in my largest thoroughbred betting score ever. On the other hand, there is Blind Luck, a two-time Gr 1 winner and the daughter of one of my favorite horses of all-time, Pollard's Vision. Either would make a great choice for the champion in this division. She Be Wild won 4 of 5 this year, but only once at the Gr 1 level, and her only other graded win came in the Gr 3 Arlington-Washington Lassie. She placed in the Gr 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland, but defeated the best of her division, including Blind Luck, in the Breeders' Cup. Blind Luck won a pair of Gr 1's - the Hollywood Starlet and the Oak Leaf Stakes, and also placed in the Gr 1 Juvenile Fillies and the Gr 1 DelMar Debutante, and overall won 4 of 6 starts. She Be Wild did prove to be 3/4 of a length better in the Breeders' Cup, but Blind Luck responded with a 7-length romp in the Hollywood Starlet. I truly feel like this is a coin flip, but giving a slight edge to She Be Wild. I still think that Blind Luck benefited from the injury to Mi Sueno in California and picked up a few Gr 1 scores due to her retirement. It's a shame that Hot Dixie Chick feel off the map, because she might have been the best of any of these.
Pick - She Be Wild

Champion 2yo Male

One of the more open-and-shut cases, have to think this one begins and ends with Lookin At Lucky. A three-time Gr 1 winner, he took the CashCall Futurity, Norfolk Stakes, and DelMar Futurity, and just missed by a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Gr 1) after receiving a less than desirable trip from the far outside post. He also won the Gr 2 Best Pal and earned $1.2M and won 5 of 6 starts. Nobody else really comes close to what he accomplished in 2009, but I have to give a small shoutout to Noble's Promise for his campaign that saw him win or place in 4 stakes races, 3 of them graded. He just missed twice to Lookin At Lucky in the BC Juvenile (when third) and the CashCall Futurity (when second).
Pick - Lookin At Lucky

Champion 3yo Female

No discussion necessary here. If Rachel Alexandra doesn't win this unanimously, it'll be a crime. Winner of 5 Gr 1 races, including the Kentucky Oaks, Preakness, Mother Goose, Haskell, and Woodward, she earned more than $2.7M in 2009. It was a season so dominant that we may never see a 3yo filly campaigned so aggressively again.
Pick - Rachel Alexandra

Champion 3yo Male

I'm actually a strong believer that Summer Bird had one fo the most underrated campaigns seen by a 3yo male in some time. Reeled off victories in the Belmont, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup, and also placed in the Haskell and Gr 2 Arkansas Derby, and ran a strong 4th in the Breeders' Cup Classic over a surface completely foreign to him. Earned $2.3M this year, and should win this thing decisively. Mine That Bird won the Gr 1 Kentucky Derby, but went winless in 7 other starts in 2009, some such losses coming at Sunland Park and Mountaineer. Hard to deny that there is some talent in that gelding, but he needed to show more to deserve consideration here. Blame deserves a brief mention for his campaign, a two-time Gr 2 winner, but he did defeat the very talented Parading in the Fayette at Keeneland and Einstein, Macho Again, and several others in the Clark Handicap.
Pick - Summer Bird

Champion Turf Female

Category will explore the question of what is more appealing to voters - a great European or a very good North American. Goldikova won just one start in North America, that coming in the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup Mile against some of the best male milers in the world. She also earned a trio of Group 1 wins in France and Britain, and knocked off males in the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville. She proved, without question, to be arguably the world's best miler and female turfer in the world. Her main competitor here, Ventura, won a pair of Gr 1 races in 2009, the Woodbine Mile against males and the Matriach against her own sex. She also just missed to the incredibly talented Gio Ponti in the Frank Kilroe Turf Mile back in March. Ventura's other three starts came on the main track, and don't appear prevalent here. My biggest determining factor here is that Ventura, on the heels of her win over the boys in the Woodbine Mile, opted to choose the Filly & Mare Sprint over the Mile, skipping an opportunity to take on Goldikova. Ventura's turf campaign, just 3 races, doesn't do enough for me to pick her over Goldikova's one North American turf start, and I have no question in my mind that Goldikova was the more talented of the two.
Pick - Goldikova

Champion Turf Male

Very quietly, Gio Ponti put together one best turf campaigns you'll see from any horse. He showed dominance going 8f in the Frank Kilroe Mile (Gr 1), and stayed up to 11f in the Gr 1 Man O War. He also won twice going 10f in the Gr 1 Manhattan and Arlington Million. Only two horses in this division, Presious Passion and Take the Points, won more than one Gr 1, each nabbing two. European invader Conduit, the winner of the Breeders' Cup Turf (Gr 1) loses luster when his entire resume is taken into consideration. He won just one other start outside of the Turf in 2009.
Pick - Gio Ponti

Champion Older Female

Like Rachel Alexandra in the 3yo Female category, it'll be criminal if Zenyatta doesn't win this in a walkover. The winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic (Gr 1), Lady's Secret (Gr 1), Clement Hirsch (Gr 1), Vanity (Gr 1), and Milady (Gr 2), she defeated the Lady's Classic (Gr 1) winner Life is Sweet on three occasions. The only one that might have been able to defeat Zenyatta was Personal Ensign winner Icon Project, but she was injured and retired too quickly.
Pick - Zenyatta

Champion Older Male

This category will question how voters actually perceive this award. Given that sprinters have their own award, and that turfers have their own award, is this specifically limited to main track routers? If that is the case, it'll be interesting to see where the voters go. Macho Again, Einstein, Bullsbay, and Rail Trip took turns beating one another all year, and none won more than 2 graded races. Einstein took the Gr 1 Santa Anita Handicap and Gr 1 Turf Classic, and also placed in 4 graded races. Macho Again won the Gr 1 Stephen Foster and Gr 2 Oaklawn 'Cap, but missed the board in 4 of 8 tries. Rail Trip won just one graded race in 2009, the Gr 1 Hollywood Gold Cup, and also placed in 3 more. Bullsbay won just 3 of 11 starts in 2009, and although he did win the Gr 1 Whitney, he wasn't good enough otherwise. Kodiak Kowboy was the best of the sprinters, but some voters won't even give him that award. So, how can you give an award for champion older male if they're not even good enough to win the championship in their own division in some voter's eyes? You can't. That leaves me with Gio Ponti. Although turfers traditionally have their own award, there is no question in my mind that this one had the best campaign for any North American-based older male horse in 2009. He won 4 Gr 1 races (twice as many as any of his other competitors) including the Frank Kilroe Mile, the Arlington Million, the Manhattan, and Man O War. He also ran 2nd in the Breeders' Cup Classic (Gr 1), and 2nd in the Turf Classic Invitational (Gr 1). With earnings of $2.3M in 2009, he outearned most of his competitors for this award by more than $1M, and should receive this award, no matter what is surface of choice was. He twice finished ahead of Einstein in 2009 as well.
Pick - Gio Ponti

Horse of the Year

To me, this isn't even as close as it appears on paper. In a case I've made multiple times on a few different internet forums, I don't see how Rachel Alexandra doesn't win this award. A campaign that featured 5 Gr 1 wins, three of them against males, she set records and put together the best season by a 3yo filly in decades. Wins in the Woodward, Haskell, and Preakness against the boys, as well as romps in the Kentucky Oaks and Mother Goose, simply outweigh Zenyatta's campaign. It is impossible to knock Zenyatta, but what she didn't do outweighs what she did do. Zenyatta's connections took a chance just once this season, whereas Rachel Alexandra's connections took chances every step of the way after Jackson became the majority owner. While her wins in the Vanity, Milady, Lady's Secret, and Clement Hirsch were races that would pave the way for a walkover in Champion Older Female category, the did little to build her appeal for this category. One win in the Classic shouldn't and doesn't change what she failed to do all year, and that is take chances. Horse of the Year isn't a one race award, and the only way that I can see Zenyatta getting this is if the voters ignore what happened in January through October. People may point to Rachel Alexandra's small margin victory against Macho Again in the Woodward, but there's no ignoring the fact that Zenyatta barely escaped Anabaa's Creation at DelMar, and she's essentially an allowance horse. If I had to make this a 1, 2, 3 type choice, I might actually be inclined to choose Summer Bird over Zenyatta. Zenyatta had a great race in the Classic that will be remembered fora long, long time. Rachel Alexandra, on the other hand, had a great campaign that will be remembered for just as long. Awards like this are based on a campaign, not a race, and I can't make a case for Zenyatta here. Rachel Alexandra, while she may not have been the better horse, who knows there, had the better campaign and deserves this award.
Pick - Rachel Alexandra

Have a very Merry Christmas, everybody!



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