Breeders' Cup Saturday

Juvenile Turf

I genuinely appreciate the Breeders' Cup brass for getting this race out of the way early on the card. From a handicapping perspective, this thing is wide open. Five Europeans ship in, and they represent the powerhouse stables of Godolphin, Coolmore, and Mrs. Susan Roy. You won't find any holes in the past performances of Viscount Nelson (6/1), and at that price he'll be worth a try. The son of Giant's Causeway just missed in the Group II Champagne last out at Doncaster, and he earned a RP Rating of 112 for that performance. Not to be outdone, John Gosden's Pounced (9/2) placed in the Group I Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere last time at Longchamp, and he earned a 114 Racing Post Rating. Godolphin's Buzzword (6/1) has been running in top company all year, and while he's only a Group III winner, he's never been far behind.

The top American hopes lie in Interactif (4/1) and Bridgetown (8/1). Frankly, both can probably win this. Interactif has one of the nicest closing kicks I've seen in a 2yo, but that's a dangerous script to write. A dozen in this field and Desormeaux may not have any beat as they make their way down the backstretch. Not sure that's what I'm looking for from a horse who's actually cutting back in distance off his last two starts. He could have a run like "closed belatedly" written all over him. I kind of really have taken a liking to Bridgetown. He appears to have taken to the Southern California surroundings and scored a win at the distance last out at Woodbine.

1. Pounced
2. Bridgetown
3. Interactif

Turf Sprint

What a great idea it was to add this race! I knew I was a big fan after California Flag and Mr. Nightlinger went :20 3/5 and :41 4/5, 1:05 1/5 last year. Will they go as quick in 2009? It's hard to imagine, but...

In horse racing, you never know. I'm not sure that I see it, but they certainly won't be crawling, either. I expect a quick pace and everybody will be in with a shot turning for home. Cannonball (8/1) was nearly a Group I winner at Ascot for Wesley Ward, and is in the best form of his career. This race will take a lot of luck, but you have to like that Dominguez is aboard. In this crapshoot, he's my top pick.

A European that I've taken a liking to is Jeremy Noseda's Strike the Deal (15/1). The deep closer won a Group III last out at Newbury (GB). Desert Code (20/1) and Diamondrella (4/1) also appear dangerous. Not spending too much time trying to 'cap this cavalry charge...

1. Cannonball
2. Strike the Deal
3. Desert Code

Sprint

Definitely lines up to be an exciting contest boasting some of the quickest horses in the world. Zensational (7/5) and Fatal Bullet (9/2) each have sub-:22 gate speed, and something tells me that talent will be on display in earnest on Saturday.

Honestly, I can't like either off the expected speed duel, and I expect them to come back to the field. Of the closers, two really stand out - Gayego (5/2) and Capt. Candyman Can (15/1), and quite frankly, there's absolutely no way there should be that much discrepency in price between the two. Capt Candyman Can arrived a bit late on the scene last out when up against Fatal Bullet at Keeneland. Unfortunately, he just doesnt seem built for 6f. On the other hand, Gayego is a perfect 4-for-4 at the distance, including a win last out over this track in the Ancient Title (Gr I). I think he gets it done here, but it won't be easy at all.

1. Gayego
2. Fatal Bullet
3. Capt Candyman Can

Juvenile

Essentially the biggest question in here is what to do with D'Funnybone (5/2). The Paul Pompa runner is, in my mind at least, the best main track runner in this field. Unfortunately, he's never been on the synthetics, nor has he ever competed around two turns. He's been working great at Aqueduct for this under Rick Dutrow's care, but how his form carries over onto the synthetic is anyone's best guess. I'm going to go with my gut and not include him here. Odds are that he's either a sprinter at heart or won't like the surface...or perhaps even both.

I think you really have to respect the Pletcher runners in here. Dogwood's Aikenite (8/1) just missed in the Breeders' Futurity (Gr I) at Keeneland, and Zayat's Eskendereya (10/1) won the off-the-turf Pilgrm Stakes last out at Belmont. Aikenite is Gr I palced on the synthetics, while Eskendereya was a runner-up in his turf debut.

I hate the post that Lookin at Lucky (8/5) drew, and while he's the best juvenile in California, I'm not sure that he's well enough clear of the reste of these to overcome his post. I consider him to be a worthy adversary, but a solid play-against.

Not really a huge fan of any of the Euros - Coolmore's duo of Alfred Nobel and Beethoven are both 20/1 on the ML, and they've already run a combined 17 times since May.

1. Aikenite
2. Aspire
3. Lookin At Lucky

Mile

The world looked great for Goldikova (8/5)...until last month, at least. That was when the 'monster' was upset in shocking fashion in the Prix de la Foret (Gr I) at Longchamp, a stark drop off in form that had seen her take a trio of Group I races in her three prior starts, including one against the boys at Deauville. Now, what do you do with her this year? She drew a tough post (11) and even though the American contingent seems to be lacking flair, 3 of her fellow Europeans look to make this no walk in the park.

Juddmonte's Zacinto (8/1) is getting so good that it's almost scary. The 3yo was beaten just 1 1/4 lengths last out by Classic hopeful Rip Van Winkle, and he was also 3 1/4 lengths clear of Delegator that day. Delegator is 3/1 in this field. Zacinto is a horse that is moving into form at the right time and needs to be respected.

I honestly am having trouble making any real case for most of the American's, besdies Ferneley (20/1). The Ben Cecil-trainee is in the form of his career, back in his home state, and ready to roll. Don't toss him, even at that price.

1. Zacinto
2. Goldikova
3. Ferneley

Dirt Mile

To see past Mastercrafstman (6/5) or not is the only question, and in betting this race, I think you do both. One set of wagers where he's very prominent on top, the other where he isn't. To me, it seems very odd that they'd run him here instead of a) the Classic, or b) the Mile, or even c) the Turf.

Race is wide open but I look forward to having some fun with Furthest Land (20/1), Midshipman (6/1), and Ready's Echo (20/1).

1. Midshipman
2. Mastercraftsman
3. Furthest Land

Turf

Unfortunately, this one just came up weaker than stronger this year. Fortunately, about 4 of these are still good enough to win - Conduit (7/5), Spanish Moon (5/2), Dar Re Mi (3/1), and Presious Passion (4/1) all bring great records into this and all have a sizable shot.

Would be appropriate if Dar Re Mi got the job done this year, but just don't think she's good enough to knock off Conduit...

1. Conduit
2. Spanish Moon
3. Dar Re Mi

Classic

It's not my year for handicapping this thing. Have spent too long trying to make heads or tails of about 10 of these, who all shold have a great shot at winning (from the rail) - Colonel John (12/1), Summer Bird (9/2), Zenyatta (5/2), Twice Over (20/1), Richard's Kid (12/1), Gio Ponti (12/1), Einstein (12/1), Rip Van Winkle (7/2), and Quality Road (12/1). If anyone can tell me how any of these will or will not definitely hit the board, I'd love to shake their hand. This thing is just too wide open. Taking a stab in the dark here and going with -

1. Richard's Kid
2. Zenyatta
3. Einstein