Handicapping Technique - Trust Thyself

So you see that horse, and something just tells you that he's destined to do something special down the line. Or you have that hunch that you cant get out of the back of your mind. Or you handicap a race for hours, and you keep coming back to the same conclusions. We've all been there. But then, just as we're about to rush to the windows, something happens. A so-called 'expert' jumps in and tells us why we can't win. Why our horse is too slow. Why the favorite we're trying to beat is too formidable. It's happened to all of us, and being a novice horse player, I've often deferred my opinion to the 'expert.' These guys are paid to know what they're talking about, right?

For me, this past Breeders' Cup is a microcosm of why little in handicapping and betting is more important than trusting your own instincts. With its rolling Pick 3's, huge betting pools, abundant Pick 4's, and lucrative Pick 6's, Breeders' Cup weekend is truly one where you can turn a hunch into a sizable return. The first Pick 3 sequence that included all Breeders' Cup races included races 3-5 on Friday, the Marathon, Juvenile Fillies Turf, and Juvenile Fillies. That's where my Pick 3 fun began -

From mid-September on, I wasn't higher on any juvenile filly than I was on She Be Wild. I loved her, even despite her loss in the Alcibiades (Gr I) at Keeneland. Unfortunately, in the week(s) following that Alcibiades loss, I couldn't find one handicapper who actually liked her in the Breeders' Cup. Likewise for the Marathon. Given the new 14f distance, it seemed incredibly likely, if not a lock, that the trophy for that race would go back to Europe. Problem is, four Europeans showed up - heavy favorites Mastery (9/5 ML odds) and Father Time (3/1), as well as Man of Iron (8/1) and longshot Muhannak (12/1). So, which to use, and which to toss?

I devised a small Pick 3 play for the sequence of races that was -

Mastery, Man of Iron / Lillie Langtry, Tapitsfly / She Be Wild

A $4 play in total, I ignored the prices on Father Time, House of Grace (4/1), Blind Luck (3/1), Always a Princess (6/1), and Negligee (6/1), but felt oddly confident. In the days leading up to the race, you wouldn't have found many who liked Man of Iron in that spot (he appeared second-tier at best), Tapitsfly (even though she'd soundly defeated 8/1 shot Smart Seattle in her lone turf try), and She Be Wild (whose I'd been on her bandwagon for weeks). The results started coming in -

Man of Iron (6.40/1) got the nod in the Marathon as Mastery flattened out and Father Time never took to the going. Good, but I figured I'd be alive after that leg. Tapitsly (9.80/1) ran down a dead-game Rose Catherine and took advantage of a rock-hard, quick turf course to use her speed to keep distance between herself and the closers. So, here I am. Alive in the Pick 3 to one horse. Could be worse, but it's tough to get too excited when you're alive to the 5th/6th betting choice in any given race. And in the 35 minutes between races, I completely fell off the bandwagon. I did the ultimate handicapping no-no. I started rewatching races. I reopened the past performances. I found about 147 reasons she wouldn't win, and none that she would.

Gomez was opting for Always a Princess. She had no excuse in losing her last. Leparoux has never been on her. The Beyers don't stand out. She's never run outside of the midwest. Blind Luck might just be THAT good. Is she even better than Negligee? She had a dream trip in her last and couldn't get things done. What happens if Connie and Michael is as advertised? Biofuel will be coming with a heck of a kick. Others appear stronger in the final eighth.

The poor girl I was watching the races with had to have found me to be the most annoying, pessimistic person on the face of the earth. Thank God the gates opened when they did, because I'm not sure I could have taken it much longer. And after what seemed to be the longest 1:43.80 of my life, and after a few tense moments where I thought Leparoux might not find running room soon enough, I had completed one of my life's goals - win a bet big enough that Uncle Sam wants a cut (next on the list - the Derby trifecta).

Unfortunately, it doesn't always work this nicely. Namely Saturday's 'Dirt' Mile. From the moment that Coolmore announced that Mastercraftsman would participate in this race, I hated him for the win. Just something didn't seem right at all. Why take a legitimate European Group I talent, and run him in this afterthought race? To me, the Classic, Mile, and even Turf seemed like much more logical spots. And for some reason, I loved Furthest Land in the race. Despite his 20/1 ML odds, I thought he had a huge chance. I fully expected Midshipman to do well, and even gave Ready's Echo more than one look. For me, this year's 'Dirt' Mile was more of a race of who couldn't win than who could win. Pyro will always hate synthetics. Same with Bullsbay. Mr. Sidney will always be a Grade II/III turf talent. Chocolate Candy will never be 'this' good. But just before post time, just as I was getting ready to unload on a ticket that included my 'top' horses, something regrettable happened. I caved. ESPN brought on Muttonchops and he praised Mastercraftsman. Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss told me how untouchable he was. The Hammer was ready to break open his piggy bank with him. All of these guys couldn't be wrong, right? So I did it. I convinced myself that 7/5 was an incredible price to take on this European Champion, and didn't place one bet where he wasn't keyed for the win. I played him all over Furthest Land, Midshipman, Neko Bay, and Ready's Echo, but never the obverse. With Mastercraftsman out of the trifecta, the exacta (Furthest Land / Ready's Echo) paid $329.10 for $1, and the trifecta (Furthest Land / Ready's Echo / Midshipman) paid $2,933.40 for a buck. Ouch.

Lessons learned. How'd your Breeders' Cup go?