Wow, what can one say after Friday's races? All things considered, the results were very, very chalky. 4 of the 5 winners were under 5/1, but I still was able to turn a bit of a profit at the windows. I ended up wagering $112, and I returned $175.70. The trifecta in the F&M Sprint helped a lot, although I was disappointed that Miraculous Miss was unable to get up for 3rd at 38/1. I didn't do anything in the F&M Turf, but I didn't expect to. I was very disappointed to see Consequence slide to 7/2, as I bet her well before the races even began. Stardom Bound did very well for me, however I missed the tri in there as well when Dream Express got 2nd over Sky Diva. Sealy Hill ruined most of what I had going in the F&M Turf (although I'm pleased to see her finally run well), but I did make a little with a saver win bet on Forever Together. Can't believe they let her go off at 5/1! The Zenyatta/Cocoa Beach exacta only paid $6.70 for $1, but I expected it to be that low. I had boxed them with the hope that Cocoa Beach might knock off the champ, but that wasn't in the cards.
So, what did we learn today? I think we learned this:
* Speed didn't hold on the main track. As much as we've heard about the track playing fairly to all running styles, it didn't. Granted the speed horses weren't the stars in the races, however the majority flopped very badly. Indian Blessing held 2nd, but she's probably the most talented filly sprinter in the country. Dearest Trickski tanked and finished 11th in that race, C.S. Silk ran 7th in the Juvenile Fillies with Be Smart 13th and Palacio de Amor 14th. In the Ladies Classic, Bear Now ended up last, Santa Teresita second to last, and Hystericalady was 5th.
* There was no real location preference. Horses stabled predominantly on the East Coast, and those who made their final preps on the East Coast won the Filly & Mare Sprint (Ventura), the Juvenile Fillies Turf (Maram), and the F&M Turf (Forever Together). The West Coasters won the Juvenile Fillies (Stardom Bound) and Ladies Classic (Zenyatta).
* Of the 15 horses who hit the board, 8 made their final BC start in the East (Woodbine, Belmont), 3 in the Midwest (Keeneland), 3 in the West (Santa Anita), and 1 from Europe.
* No real comments on European form. Heart Shaped outran her odds in the Juvenile Fillies Turf to just miss at 11/1, but April Pride and Beyond Our Reach, both from Europe, ran 11th and 12th in that race. Pursuit of Glory ran 11th in the Juvenile Fillies, and Halfway to Heaven disappointed as the favorite in the F&M Turf to run 7th. Visit ran well to get 4th in that race. Honestly that tells me nothing. It continues to be a pure preference thing (of the horse), as it's always been. It's also somewhat ironic how American bettors completely ignored the Europeans in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, sending them off at 11/1, 13/1, and 28/1, and then dismissed Visit at 17/1, but then they fell in love with Halfway to Heaven (5/2) in a very deep race, and Pursuit of Glory (8/1)
With that pittance of information kept in mind, let's move on to Saturday -
Breeders' Cup Marathon
Honestly, I'm pretty surprised the Breeders' Cup even created this race. There's no 12f main track division anywhere in the world really, and the entrants resemble that. Of the American entrants, 5 of the 6 could have been had for any interested buyer at some point in their career by simply dropping a claim in the box. Only one of the Europeans has any real class, that being Jeremy Noseda's Sixties Icon, a winner of 3 straight Group 3 races who has never run on the main track.
The race seems to be completely void of speed, with the most likely scenario seeing Joe Talamo husting longshot Booyah (30/1) to the front with Zappa (5/2) in some sort of pursuit. Zappa was going to be my pick in this race, but he figures to be hit heavily at the windows and he just doesn't offer the value I'm looking for.
Over the years, Mike Mitchell has become one of my favorite trainers in California, and he sends out two here - Church Service (10/1) and Big Booster (9/2). He's named top riders on each - Edgar Prado and Rafael Bejarano - and I give each a big shot, but I'm having trouble differentiating between those two. Both are deep closers who are going to need some sort of pace to shoot at.
Best Bet: Have to go with Sixties Icon here. He's got class and wants the distance. If he takes to the surface, he just may be the easiest winner of the day.
Worst Bet: Wow, they all seem equally opportunistic here. I can make cases against the majority of the Americans, which isn't a good sign.
Sleeper: I'm looking to Delightful Kiss to be my sleeper. At 8/1 on the ML he's got a chance to go off at a price, and he's fallen in love with the synthetics at Turfway Park and Golden Gate in his last two starts. Calvin Borel is named to ride, and he's won a pair of Grade 3 stakes with this colt. He'll spot the field early, but look for this gray gelding to be flying late!
1. Sixties Icon (GB)
2. Delightful Kiss
3. Big Booster
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
My handicapping nemesis has always been turf sprint races, and the Breeders' Cup was kind enough to schedule one of those for me. Gotta love the use of polar opposites, though - going from slow horses loping along to a 2:26 final time in the first race on the card to the quickest horses in the country flying out to a 1:11 in change on the turf in the second.
Mr. Nightlinger (6/1) would be favored in this race, except he drew so poorly that he's nearly guaranteed to be wide throughout. The speedster has won 5 straight on the turf, all in wire-to-wire fashion, but that probably will not be the case here. Idiot Proof (8/1) loves to be close up, as does California Flag (15/1). That one just put on a scintillating show at Santa Anita on 9/24, getting 6.5f in 1:11 in the Morvich Handicap. A replication of that effort should get the job done. This race literally has the potential to go sub-:21 for the first quarter.
Best Bet: Scott Lake's True to Tradition (15/1) stands a big shot in here. He's a winner of two straight, including the Nearctic Stakes (Gr. II) at Woodbine last out. He's also beaten Heros Reward and Rouse the Cat in his last two. Rouse the Cat (20/1) is also an interesting candidate. He picks up rider Edgar Prado after a near miss in the Nearctic Stakes. They'll both find their trips from behind the pacesetters.
Worst Bet: Anyone of the speedballs or deep closers. Also expect Diabolical's odds to be too low based on name recognition.
1. Rouse the Cat
2. True to Tradition
3. Salute the Count
In honesty I could the majority of these coming through, though, and I'll be treading very lightly in this race.
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Now we at least get to some horses that the majority of fans have heard of. And hey, nothing like having a rare occurance in the race - how often do full brothers race against one another? That'll be the case when Doug O'Neill's duo of Slew's Tiznow (15/1) and Slew's Tizzy (20/1) enter the starting gate. Best of luck to Trevor Denman with that one.
The favorite here will most likely be the classy Well Armed (3/1), and I think he'll come down off his ML odds a bit. Cases can be made for or against him. He's got the best credentials of anyone in this race, having won a Grade 1 last time out as well as a pair of Grade 2 races earlier this year. He won the Goodwood over this surface last out, and just missed in the Pacific Classic. The real question is whether or not he can cut back to 8f. I'm not overly worried, given that the race is run around two turns. The sailing will not be clear up front, however. Mast Track (6/1) will run even though he faced a quarter crack issue earlier this week, Slew's Tizzy might go to the front, and Two Step Salsa (15/1) is all speed. My Pal Charlie (20/1) also prefers to be close to the pace. That scenario could spell doom for Well Armed, or could at least soften him up for the deep closers in here.
Best Bet(s) : I really like two horses in this race - Lewis Michael (5/1) and Albertus Maximus (4/1). I think the former will slide down from those odds, while the latter will head upward. Lewis Michael won the Pat O'Brien (Gr. II) at DelMar in August, and Catalano brings them back off the layoff at a huge percentage. He loves synthetics (7-3-3-0) and the distance (4-2-2-0). Look for him to come flying late. Albertus Maximus is a horse I'm not as high on, but he's got upside and is really coming into his own. He was flying late to get 3rd in the Goodwood, and his best is good enough to get a big piece.
Worst Bet : Yes, you've heard of Pyro. Maybe you even saw him race. He's not good enough to win this, nor does he want this distance. Nor does he want this surface. Tout him to all of your friends, and then run to the teller and bet on somebody else. I also think Surf Cat (6/1) is a difficult horse to back. I'm a huge fan of the 6yo horse, but enough is enough for me backing him. He's won 2 of 11, yet continues to be backed heavily at the windows. The distance might just be ideal for him, but he's not a horse I'm going to go down backing.
1. Lewis Michael
2. Well Armed
3. Albertus Maximus
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