Breeders' Cup Saturday Analysis P2

Breeders' Cup Mile

This one looks to be a top class field. Even though Friday was dubbed 'Ladies Day,' at least two fell through the cracks, those being Fred Head's Irish-bred Goldikova and Bobby Frankel's Precious Kitten.

The pace in here looks to be pretty swift - Daytona (6/1) will be up there, as will Thorn Song (12/1) and probably Precious Kitten (8/1). Expect defending champion Kip Deville (5/1) to sit just in behind them, as well as Bold Chieftain (15/1), and perhaps even Goldikova (3/1). I'd look to the closers, but I'm not too high on any of them. Shakis (10/1) is past his prime and needs a longer distance. War Monger (12/1) has disappointed all season, and Whatsthescript (4/1) faces a huge class test here. Coolmore's hope, U S Ranger (15/1) should not be dismissed at those odds. The two turn mile will be right up his alley, and he should appreciate the added distance.

At this point, I'm just wishing Kip Deville would have shown something in his last. The race sets up beautifully for him, and he loves Santa Anita and the distance. His best is probably better than anyone else's.

My first inclination is to go with Goldikova, but I'm always leary of Europeans at short prices in these things. But she's won 3 straight and ran a lot of good races to Zarkava in the spring.

The Play: I think the top three in here are Goldikova, Whatsthescript, and Kip Deville. Box those three in the exacta, and then play them over 'all' in the trifecta, if you have the guts!

1. Goldikova
2. Whatsthescript
3. U S Ranger

Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Finally a race that I have an opinion on. With the top East Coast juvenile, Vineyard Haven, staying home, I think this race comes down to two entrants - Midshipman (5/1) from Bob Baffert's barn, and Street Hero (6/1) from the barn of Myung Kwon Cho. They ran 1-2 in the local prep for this, the Grade 1 Norfolk Stakes, with Street Hero getting the nod that day. The morning lines on each of those are very generous.

Worst Bet : I hate Munnings (7/2) in here, and I cringe at the fact that he's the ML favorite. By Speightstown, he's tough to love around two turns, even though Holy Bull is his damsire. He's been soundly defeated twice in the Hopeful and Champagne in New York, and faces the possibility of being boxed in on the rail or being forced to go too soon. I think he may be the most vulnerable favorite of the entire group.

Sleeper : Terrain (20/1) is quickly becoming the type of horse that I love to follow. He's not fast, nor is he flashy, but he always seems to put in an honest effort. He ran 2nd in the wake of Square Eddie in the Breeders' Futurity (Gr. I) at Keeneland, and likes the synthetics. The stewards handed him a victory in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (Gr. III), and Theriot is a good rider who will sneak him up get a piece.

1. Street Hero
2. Midshipman
3. Terrain

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

Roll of the dice - going with the best American closers and the top Euro....

1. Westphalia
2. Grand Adventure
3. Skipadate

Breeders' Cup Sprint

One of those races where I think the speed bias will come into effect. First Defence (12/1) is the epitome of cheap speed in here, Fabulous Strike (4/1) is fast and consistent, Black Seventeen (15/1) will be involved, and look for Fatal Bullet (6/1) to be around. I look for Fabulous Strike to drop out of it at the top of the lane, and open things up for the closers.

Street Boss (3/1) has been a force in California all year, but he might come from too far back. I just don't trust him fully. Nor do I really trust Cost of Freedom (4/1). Midnight Lute (7/2) is hard to love off the layoff. I'm going with a lesser known horse here -

1. Fatal Bullet
2. Cost of Freedom
3. Street Boss

Breeders' Cup Turf

In what always figures to a spirited race, a solid cast of 11 line up for this 12f event. Coolmore's Soldier of Fortune (7/2) has been named the ML favorite, and for good reason. He won the Group 1 Coronation Cup over Youmzain in June, but more importantly comes into this race fresh. He's only started 3 times in 2008, and ran 3rd in the Arc last out. Look for a big rally from him.

1. Soldier of Fortune
2. Eagle Mountain
3. Dancing Forever

Breeders' Cup Classic

As you all will shortly learn, I really can't stand Curlin. He bugs me. But he should win this race pretty easily. The speed won't hold, so Fairbanks and Smooth Air are out. Champs Elysees is sitting on a big one I think. Same with Go Between.

Curlin is in a class of his own, and I can't try to beat him. Simple as that. Put as much as you can on him!

1. Curlin
2. Go Between
3. Champs Elysees