Breeders Cup Saturday Analysis

Well, I would like to personally take this time to congratulate myself for absolutely getting killed at the windows. The only bet I cashed on all day was a $10 win play on a 2/1 shot in the 9th at Calder. So, I would like to give a shout-out to Hopeful Image (trainer Gerald Procino; jockey Herb McCauley) for getting up late to win that thrilling allowance. However, the rest of the day - nothin' doin for me. I was close on a few tris, but just couldn't get the job done. I'll do the trendy thing and blame the track - damn synthetics.

Marathon

I did comment that Mike Mitchell is uber dangerous off the layoff, right? Both Church Service AND Big Booster hit the board, at odds of 10/1 each. The problem? I talked myself out of Church Service completely, thinking that Big Booster was the superior of the two. The bigger problem? I gave European allowance/handicap winner Muhannak absolutely no chance. I should have considered him, given the fact that he'd won on synthetics in Europe, but hindsight is always 20/20. Sixties Icon failed to run a step, and so did Delightful Kiss. Their inability to fire led to my ability to throw a bunch of tickets in the air. The tri in this one payed $987.10 for $1. Kudos to anyone that had it (bonus points if you admit to taking my advice on the Mitchell horses).

Turf Sprint

Did Jamie Theriot and Joe Talamo really cover that first quarter in 20.73? Did they really cover the second quarter in 21.08? I mean, I understand that Mr. Nightlinger and California Flag are amazingly fast, but that's ridiculous. Need less to say, they dropped like anchors when the field came running and finished 11th and 10th, respectively. I was so far off in this race, it's not even funny. My top 3 were Rouse the Cat, True to Tradition, and Salute the Count. They ran 12th, 7th, and 6th. I do have to give a ton of credit to Dave Hofmans and Richard Migliore for their efforts with the longshot winner Desert Code, who paid $75.00 to win. I gave him absolutely no shot, and if I had to handicap the race again, I'd still give him no shot. Kudos to two horses I've followed for some time, Diaboical and Storm Treasure for getting 2nd and 3rd, and filling out a $6,184 trifecta.

Dirt Mile

20 seconds into the race, I knew I was cooked. First of all, why was Eibar Coa on Lewis Michael instead of Rene Douglas? I need an answer to that. I feel like this is one of the races that I had absolutely nailed, but I still couldn't get the job done. I had a feeling Well Armed was sitting on a bad one, and I had taken a stand against Surf Cat as well. I boxed Lewis Michael, Albertus Maximus, and Rebellion in a $1 tri. First of all, what was Lewis Michael doing that close to the pace? Did Coa even see his Pat O'Brien? Did Coa understand that the track was most likely favoring closers? Why was he pressing the pace with Lewis Michael? They covered 6f in 1:08 3/5! If he gets the same trip that he did in the O'Brien, he hits the exacta easily. Rebellion really spiced up the tri at 18/1, and this would have been a nice one to have. I'll forever be bitter at Eibar Coa - mark my words.

Mile

All I can really say is wow. Goldikova is an absolute monster. For her to wait, slide through a tiny hole, and accelerate like she did...she's becoming something special. And let's consider that Zarkava beat her this year...twice. Don't think Zarkava was one of the best we've seen for a long time? Think again. Gotta give credit to Kip, and wasn't surprised to see Whatsthescript and US Ranger closing well. I made some cardinal mistakes when handicapping this one. Number one was that I gave Bold Chieftain a shot. I hate on Russell Baze 365 days a year, and yet this is the second time I've given him a shot on a big racing day (the other being either this year or last in the SA Derby) - he's screwed me both times. The only other mistake I made - I didn't key Kip and Goldikova up top over Whatsthescript in 3rd. I played it straight: Kip - Goldikova - Whatsthescript. Moving on...

Juvenile

Class held and speed held for once. This was the only race of the two days on the main track won by ANY horse who led or stalked the early pace. So if Midshipman stays in America, he just might turn into something pretty damn good. I wont go and jinx him by saying the words Triple Crown, thou...wait, I just did. Sorry Baffy! Terrain put in a good run too in getting 4th. I had keyed Street Hery & Midshipman over him in the tri, assuming Square Eddie would bounce like none other. This is about the time I should have realized it just wasn't my day.

Juvenile Turf

Also know as the dartboard race. Isn't it always a kick in the pants to have picked out a few nice midpack horses/closers, only to see 2nd, 3rd, and 5th early? Europe ran 1-2 in this one, and Coronet of a Baron got 3rd. The only enjoyment that I got from the race was seeing my mother's face light up for about .04 seconds when the longshot I gave her, City Style (29/1), came flying into the screen toward the end of the race. He got 4th.

Sprint

Midnight Lute should be revered as a legend. So should Bob Baffert. Horses aren't made to do what that duo did on Saturday. That horse was essentially unraced since last November. His start in the O'Brien was an absolute debacle, and the horse failed to run at all. I've been confident in my pal Fatal Bullet for weeks, and I'm proud as hell with how he ran. The public latched on, making him 5/1, but that horse ran lights out. I played a $2 straight tri in this one - Fatal Bullet - Midnight Lute - Street Boss. That didn't go over well.

Turf

Will be one of those races that I never forget. Coolmore enters rabbit to ensure honest pace. Rabbit takes off like his tail is on fire (fractions of 24.28, 47.06, 1:10.20). So, in theory, the horse he's trying to set things up for would be well behind him, waiting for the speed horse(s) and stalkers to wilt. But no, Soldier of Fortune is sitting right there, in 3rd, right off his rabbit. He ended up finishing 4th, and in some ways I'd consdier that to be a hell of a run. The winner, Conduit, is one of those horses that my gut kept telling me to bet, but I ignored it. Eagle Mountain, who ran 2nd, is the exact same situation. I'll give myself a light pat on the back because I nailed Dancing Forever for 3rd at 26/1. It sucked to see Better Talk Now (8th), Red Rocks (10th), and Grand Couturier (11th).

Classic

Sooooo....how about that Curlin! I'll be the first to admit I was pleased seeing him go down. Screw that, I was ecstatic! I actually thought for sure he was making a winning move around the turn, too. But my hat's off to Raven's Pass, Henrythenavigator, AND Tiago for running by him. Oh, and for what it's worth, I didn't have any of those 3 in any tri that I played. I dabbled in the Duke, Champs Elysees, Curlin, Colonel John, and Go Between, but I didn't tread on anything too heavily. The tri payed $2,395 for a buck...just wish I'd have used the Euros a lot heavier! Who'd have thought a pair of turf milers would end up running 1-2 in America's biggest main track handicap race?