I had originally itended to start this entry with a brief commentary regarding my thoughts on the whole "Ladies Day" format, but on second thought decided it was best to hold off formulating a true opinion until I see the attendance, handle, television ratings, etc. for the two days. So, without further adieu (who had a filly by Giant's Causeway this year), here are my selections -
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Honestly, I'm not sure that they could have started off the day with a better race. This is a race that seems to have everything that a marquee race should have - quality speed, quality closers, fan favorites, and several possible winners. At first glance, it's very difficult to make a case against Bob Baffert's superstar filly Indian Blessing, who sits as the 2/1 morning line favorite. In races run at less than 8f, she's an undefeated 5 for 5. She's run four consecutive 100+ Beyer figures, but more importantly she's added another dimension to her running style - she now gives jockey Johhny Velazquez the option of rating behind other horses, whereas in the past she was hellbent on going to the lead. She's run over a synthetic just once, and it did result in a victory in the Santa Ynez Stakes (Gr. II), however that win was only by a nose.
The pace in this race looks as if it will be quite quick - even with the defection of Indyanne (12/1), who was forced to scratch due to a minor illness. Longshot Dream Rush (20/1) has failed to progress from age 3 to age 4, yet she still is a classy filly with a ton of early speed. In this race last year, she blazed through fractions of :21 1/5 and :44 before finishing 5th. Unfortunately she has not been the same horse in 2008, and a win here by her would be a shock. Dearest Trickski (12/1), a winner of 4 of 5, will also be near the pace, however she'll need a career best to be competitive here. Don't count her out, though. She seems to be the forgotten horse in this race, and she's 6 for 8 on synthetic surfaces. La Tee (30/1) also prefers to be near the lead, as does Lady Sprinter (15/1), a multiple Group 1 winner in Argentina.
Most Likely: While Indian Blessing looms very large, I think the best bet in this race might just be Bobby Frankel's Ventura (5/1). She's run first or second in 5 of 6 starts stateside, and is a Grade 2 winner on a synthetic at this distance. She prepped for this race by taking on the males in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile, and she did a fine job of it by finishing 2nd. Her running style will suit her well on the surface, and at anything around the 5/1 she's worth a second glance.
Worst Bet: I really cant sit behind Intangaroo (9/2) in here, especially for one of the top prizes. She's definitely a talented filly, but I think she'll ultimately do her best running on conventional dirt surfaces. Her two biggest victories of the year - the Grade 1 Humana Distaff and Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes - came over the courses at Churchill Downs and Saratoga. She's only 3 for 11 lifetime on the synthetics, and her career high Beyer on the surface is a 93. She earned a 99 in both of her conventional dirt victories.
Sleeper: I think there are quite a few sleepers in this field. I've already discussed Dearest Trickski, but I think Tiz Elemental (20/1) is set to run a big one, as well as Lady Sprinter.
1. Ventura
2. Indian Blessing
3. Dearest Trickski
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
In what figures to be one of the least exciting races of the event, the Breeders' Cup has at least done well to entice a full field of fillies for this one. Unfortunately, most aren't that good.
Most Likely: You know, Laragh (7/2) ran such a powerful race last time out in the Jessamine at Keeneland that I just can't go against her here. Previously trained by Mark Casse, she ran an uninspired 5th in the Natalma Stakes (Gr. III) at Woodbine, but for some reason she's a different filly now. Plus there isn't much pace in here besides the Calder-shipper Renda (10/1), who looks in deep in her turf debut. C Karma (8/1) looms large as well.
Worst Bet: This looks to be one of those races where a bet for anyone other than Laragh, C Karma, Saucey Evening, or Heart Shaped is a bad bet.
Sleeper: In the event that the pace does heat up, I look for Consequence (8/1) to run a big one. She moved too wide to get the job done in the Ms Grillo (Gr. III) at Belmont but still contributed to a blanket finish in that race. She unleashed a strong 4f workout in :46 over the Santa Anita main track, and Saturday will be her first chance to run over a firm turf course. Her connections will ensure that her odds don't drift too high, and she should be considered strongly for a minor piece.
1. Laragh
2. Consequence
3. Heart Shaped
It's also very unfortunate that Russell Baze's mount, Atka (30/1), is on the outside looking in. It's always a pleasure to watch Russy tank at the highest level of racing and then run back to Northern California with his tail between his legs.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
In a race that historically goes to the premier horse in the crop, 12 of the 13 entrants will be looking to buck a significant trend among winners in this race. The favorite has won the last 6 runnings of this race, and 14 of 24 times overall. Overall, favorites are 24-14-1-4 (ITM 79.2%). On the other hand, second choices in the betting are 24-2-7-3 (ITM 50%, but only 25% since 2000). That means good things for Chris Paasch and his entrant Stardom Bound, who opens at 2/1 on the ML. She's won two straight, and her victories have been nothing short of exceptional. She should get some sort of pace to shoot at, with C.S. Silk (15/1), Be Smart (15/1), and Palacio de Amor (12/1) in the field. Outside of Stardom Bound, the wagering looks to be absolutely wide open.
Doremifasollatido (15/1) won the Gr. II Matron Stakes, but draws a difficult post position outside of her 12 competitors. Similarly, Alcibiades Stakes (Gr. I) winner Dream Express (6/1) drew the 12 hole. Those posts may prove to be quite detrimental, especially for Doremifasollatido, who I'd prefer not to win anyway - unless Denman plans on singing her name down the lane, that is. Eh, on second thought, I just prathat he doesn't miss a horse making a huge run up the rail en route to a 10 length victory...again. Sky Diva (7/2) looks to be a notable adversary, but it's difficult to be positive about her chances given the way that 2nd choices in this race have run, as well as the fact that she's never run on a synthetic.
Worst Bet: It's got to be Doremifasollatido. The post is very bad, and she's either going to be further behind than she wants to be, or wider than she should be.
Sleeper: With a perceived short priced favorite, there should be many possible winners with enticing odds. The Lukas barn is very high on Be Smart (15/1), and I've read several respected handicappers throwing their support behind Van Lear Rose (30/1). For my sleeper, I'll go with Dale Romans' C.S. Silk (15/1). She won the Arlington-Washington Lassie (Gr. III) over the synthetic at Arlington Park, and comes into this with a ton of confidence, having won her last two by a combined 12 1/4 lengths. She should be able to work out a nice stalking trip, and will be the one that the winner has to catch.
1. Stardom Bound
2. C.S. Silk
3. Van Lear Rose
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf
In what figures to be an outstanding race, there are two that simply stand above the rest in my eyes. I would absolutely love to see Wait a While (3/1) take this race, yet I'm just not sure that she's capable. The pros with this one are many - she loves the Santa Anita turf (3 for 3 lifetime, including 2 Grade 1 wins), she loves firm going (8 for 12 lifetime), and she loves the distance (3 for 4 lifetime). She should work out the perfect trip, tucked in behind the frontrunners. She'll need her best, though, with classy fillies like Mauralakana (5/1), Forever Together (6/1), Halfway to Heaven (4/1), and Pure Clan (15/1) flying at her late.
Best Bet: So, with that said, I think the best bet in here is the aformentioned Forever Together. Her running style suits in this race, and she has never failed to fire since trainer Jonathan Sheppard put her on the turf in May. She won the First Lady Stakes (Gr. I) at Keeneland last out, and ran down the talented Precious Kitten in the process. She also came flying late to take the Diana (Gr. I) at Saratoga. She's untried at the distance, but her running style makes me think she is capable of winning at 10f. Leparoux chooses her over Pure Clan.
I'm also looking for a big run out of Mauralakana, who lost all chance in her last when forced to rally prematurely to try and lasso a loose on the lead frontrunner. Britain's Halfway to Heaven will be dangerous as well.
I honestly don't see a "worst bet" in this race. I don't think Vacare (10/1) will appreciate the distance, but her odds reflect that. Juddmonte's Visit (15/1) has never run this long, but again her odds reflect that. Sealy Hill (15/1) is simply outclassed.
Sleeper: If you ignore her 5th place finish in the Glen Falls (Gr. III), Dynaforce (6/1) is 3-1-2-0 in her starts on this side of the pond. She ran a great race in the Diana (Gr. I) only to be nipped by Forever Together late, and she ran exceptionally well in the New York Handicap (Gr. II), only to be nipped by Mauralakana at the wire. She'll drift up from 6/1 on the ML with some of the others taking money.
1. Forever Together
2. Wait a While
3. Mauralakana
Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic
In what figures to be the highlight of a great day of racing, the undefeated and untested Zenyatta (3/5) will look to stretch her winning streak to 9. She's already defeated the many of her biggest challengers, including Hystericalady (15/1) and Ginger Punch (9/2).
Best Bet/Sleeper: If Zenyatta loses, I think it'll be to one of the Godolphin fillies - Cocoa Beach (8/1) or Music Note (6/1). Of the two, I prefer Cocoa Beach. By all accounts, she's working very well for this race, and is finally coming into her own. She defeated a very game Ginger Punch last out in the Beldame (Gr. I), and should be ready to fire a huge effort here. Hystericalady offers a ton of value if you can get her anywhere near 15/1.
1. Zenyatta
2. Cocoa Beach
3. Ginger Punch
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